Monthly Archives: September 2014

Quality starts for quarterbacks

The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.

The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”

Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:

2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS

Quarterback, Team Quality Starts
Peyton Manning, Broncos              15
Philip Rivers, Chargers              13
Matt Ryan, Falcons              12
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers              11
Tony Romo, Cowboys              11
Russell Wilson, Seahawks              11
Drew Brees, Saints              10
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers              10
Matthew Stafford, Lions              10

(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)

Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.

At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.

The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:

Year League Avg Quality Starts Leaders
2012        83.8 Peyton Manning 14, Aaron Rodgers 13, Matt Ryan 13, Russell Wilson 12
2011        82.5 Tom Brady 14, Drew Brees 14, Rodgers 14, Tony Romo 12, Matt Stafford 12
2010        82.2 Brady 14, Joe Flacco 12, Philip Rivers 12
2009        81.2 Rivers 16, Rodgers 15, P. Manning 14, Matt Schaub 14
2008        81.5 Chad Pennington 12, Rivers 12
2007        80.9 Brady 13, Romo 13, David Garrard 12, Matt Hasselbeck 12, P. Manning 12
2006        78.5 P. Manning 14, Carson Palmer 13, Brady 12, Brees 12, Rivers 12
2005        78.2 Palmer 14, Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Jake Delhomme 12, Trent Green 12
2004        80.9 P. Manning 15, Daunte Culpepper 14, Brees 12, Green 12
2003        76.6 Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Culpepper 12, Steve McNair 12
2002        78.6 Rich Gannon 13, P. Manning 12, Pennington 12
2001        76.6 Gannon 14, Jeff Garcia 14, Brett Favre 12
2000        76.2 Gannon 13, Garcia 12, Elvis Grbac 12, P. Manning 12

I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.

And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?

In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:

QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)

Year Quarterback, Team Quality Starts Result (W-L-T)
2009 Philip Rivers, Chargers              16 Won division (13-3)
1992 Steve Young, 49ers              16 NFC finalist (14-2)
1984 Dan Marino, Dolphins              16 Super Bowl finalist (14-2)
1973 Fran Tarkenton, Vikings              14 Super Bowl finalist (12-2)
1960 Milt Plum, Browns              12 Missed playoffs (8-3-1)

● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)

● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).

● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.

One more note:

● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.

Which brings us to . . .

MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS

Quarterback,Team Quality Starts
Philip Rivers, Chargers              62
Aaron Rodgers, Packers              60
Tom Brady, Patriots              59
Drew Brees, Saints              58
Peyton Manning, Colts/Broncos              53

Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.

The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.

But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?

Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.

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Down by down with LeSean McCoy

Ever wonder what goes into being the NFL rushing champion? When exactly does he gain his yards? How is he used by the coaching staff?

Let’s find out by crunching the numbers for the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy, whose 1,607 yards last season gave him the title by a comfortable 268 over the Bears’ Matt Forte. As you’ll see, McCoy’s down-and-distance breakdown tells us much. (Note: The figures listed in the downs columns are attempts-yards-touchdowns.)

To Go 1st Down 2nd Down 3rd Down 4th Down
11+ 4-28-0 21-148-1 5-35-0
10 144-740-2 27-206-1 1-5-0
9 2-4-0 3-21-0
8 2-7-0 13-53-0
7 8-25-0 1-5-0
6 4-6-0 1-13-0
5 1-(-2)-0 7-37-0 1-10-0
4 12-51-0 4-8-0
3 1-0-0 4-8-0 2-9-0
2 8-13-0 9-33-0 1-5-0
1 3-3-3 8-85-2 13-34-0 4-17-0
Totals 157-780-5 115-653-4 37-152-0 5-22-0

To summarize:

● McCoy gained 69.8 percent of his yards (1,122) on either first-and-10-or-more or second-and-10-or-more — both good running downs, you might say.

● In those two situations, he averaged 5.7 yards a carry (196/1,122). In all others, he averaged 4.1 (118/485).

● He wasn’t much of a factor on third and fourth downs, where the game is often won. Totals: 42 carries, 174 yards, 0 touchdowns.

Even in a spread offense, against defenses less compact, Eagles coach Chip Kelly still picked his spots with McCoy. Nearly two-thirds of the time (205 of 314, or 65.3 percent, counting nine rushes on third-and-5 or longer) he called on him in circumstances favorable to a running back. Indeed, LeSean had more attempts on second-and-10-or-more (48) than on third and fourth downs combined (42). That’s how you average 5.1 yards a carry. As that old play caller, Sun Tzu, said, “The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.”

The Eagles had the best pass-run balance in the league, too: 508 passes, 500 rushes. But McCoy’s stats suggest Kelly ran the ball, as much as anything, to keep the defense honest — read: more vulnerable to the passing game — not to pound the opponent into submission (as in days of old).

Check out McCoy’s performance against the Redskins in Week 11. That might be the best illustration of what I’m talking about. He carried 20 times for 77 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-16 Philly win, but Washington almost totally shut him down. So how did Shady average nearly 4 yards an attempt? Answer: By taking handoffs on third-and-21, second-and-20, first-and-20, second-and-19, second-and-16, first-and-16 and second-and-10. On those seven runner-friendly plays, he gained 67 yards. On his other 13 he gained 10 — 27.7 inches a pop.

Read into this data what you will. To me, it’s just more evidence of the Marginalization of the Running Back. Especially when you consider that none of the last six rushing leaders even managed to win a playoff game — and three failed to make it to the postseason. The specifics:

HOW THE LAST SIX RUSHING CHAMPS FARED IN THE POSTSEASON

Season Running back, Team Yards Playoffs
2013 LeSean McCoy, Eagles 1,607 0-1
2012 Adrian Peterson, Vikings 2,097 0-1
2011 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars 1,606 missed
2010 Arian Foster, Texans 1,616 missed
2009 Chris Johnson, Titans 2,006 missed
2008 Adrian Peterson, Vikings 1,760 0-1

Sources: NFL gamebooks, pro-football-reference.com

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See if you can find the ball

There’s no better way to celebrate the start of the NFL season than with a clip — or three — of the ol’ Hidden-Ball Play. These are from Pigskin Champions, a documentary the Packers filmed in Hollywood after winning the 1936 title. As you’ll see, the play was the football equivalent of a Three-Card Monte game.

Which one is your favorite?

Hidden-Ball Play No. 1:

Hidden-Ball Play No. 2:

Hidden-Ball Play No. 3:

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A few pointers on playing quarterback

One of the best things about this commercial is that, right up to the end, it looks like an instructional video on How To Take The Center Snap. Our demonstrator is Roman Gabriel, the Pro Bowl quarterback for the Rams and Eagles in the ’60s and ’70s.

That same year (1969), Gabriel appeared in John Wayne movie, The Undefeated, set in the period just after the Civil War. He played a Native American named Blue Boy. (Was he a Native American? Well, no. But his father was Filipino, which accounted for Roman’s dark complexion. That’s show biz, folks.) You also get a glimpse here of Merlin Olsen, the Rams’ Hall of Fame defensive tackle, who went on to a much more substantial acting career (Father Murphy, Little House on the Prairie).

How great is it that an NFL quarterback got to be in a film in which The Duke delivered this line?

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A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign/trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets — Joe Namath’s team — have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

Year  Team (Record) Receivers, Yards Result
1984  Dolphins (14-2) Mark Clayton 1,389, Mark Duper 1,306 Lost Super Bowl
1995  Lions (10-6) Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488 Wild Card
2000  Rams (10-6) Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471 Wild Card
2000  Broncos (11-5) Rod Smith 1,602, Ed McCaffrey 1,317 Wild Card
2002  Steelers (10-5-1) Hines Ward 1,329, Plaxico Burress 1,325 Won Division
2005  Cardinals (5-11) Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402 Missed Playoffs
2006  Colts (12-4) Marvin Harrison 1,366, Reggie Wayne 1,310 Won Super Bowl
2011  Patriots (13-3) Wes Welker 1,569, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1,327 Lost Super Bowl

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high expectations in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because: (a.) Wes missed three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout, Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13), to throw to. The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed toward Garcon or Jackson.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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