Author Archives: Dan

The best and worst of kicking

On one side Sunday, you had the Bills’ Dan Carpenter booming a 58-yard field goal with four seconds left to give his team a come-from-behind 17-14 victory. On the other, you had the Lions’ Alex Henery missing all three of his boots — none shorter than 44 yards — and losing his job because of it.

That, friends, is all you need to know about the kicking profession in the 2000s. The NFL has kickers these days capable of knocking through a game-winner from 58 yards or longer, if need be. But the bar for them has been raised so high that missing more than a handful of boots a season — never mind three in an afternoon — is likely to put them on the unemployment line. They’re the victims of their own near-perfection.

Granted, Henery has had a rough go of it this year. In his two games for Detroit, he was 1 for 5 on field goal tries, a success rate that might have raised eyebrows even in the ’50s. But he also has a track record, and it’s pretty good. In his three previous NFL seasons, all with the Eagles, he converted 86 percent of his attempts. But now he’s gone because, well, that’s just the way it is in pro football.

As Lions coach Jim Caldwell put it: “There’s somebody out there for us that’ll do the job for us. We just got to see if we can track him down quickly.”

Translation: No biggie. We’ll just hold a tryout, open up another box of 86-percent kickers and see who performs best. (It turned out to be Matt Prater, the former Bronco.)

NFL soccer-stylers have become so accurate, even from great distances, that last year they were successful on 86.5 percent of their field goal tries (which made Henery, at 82.1, below average). There even have been kickers, two of them, who have gone through an entire season without missing. And, of course, Tom Dempsey’s 63-yarder, which had stood as the record since 1970, was finally topped  by Prater, who booted a 64-yarder in Denver’s thin air last December.

The field goal is becoming almost as automatic as the extra point. So it’s easy to forget, with all these footballs tumbling through the uprights, that, at late as the ’60s, it was a very hit-or-miss proposition. And earlier than that, it was more miss than hit.

Let’s pay a visit to 1939 for a moment, to a game between the Redskins and Pittsburgh Pirates (they weren’t the Steelers yet). The Redskins won easily, 44-14, but they also missed five PATs. The Associated Press’ account read like this:

“Jim German ran off right tackle to a touchdown. Washington missed the kick. . . . [Andy] Farkas knifed through for the score. His kick was blocked by Sam Boyd. . . . Frank Filchock stood in the end zone, passed to Farkas on the 4-yard stripe, and Andy galloped 96 yards for a touchdown — a total gain of 99 yards. Turk Edwards’ kick was not good. . . . [Dick] Todd . . . raced 60 yards for another touchdown. Bob Masterson’s kick was not good. . . . Ed Justice went around left end . . . for the final Redskin[s] touchdown. [Bo] Russell missed the kick.”

This is obviously an extreme example of what I’m talking about. The Redskins were so far ahead that day that they started goofing around and letting everybody kick. (Russell and Masterson were their main guys.) But it just shows how casual teams could be about kicking and how inexact a science it was — even though PATs were 10 yards shorter because the goal posts were on the goal line.

Pittsburgh’s kicker, Armand Niccolai, was one of the better ones in the league — so good that, after he retired following the 1941 season, the team talked him into coming back for one more year. Since he’d already taken a coaching and teaching job at a local high school and couldn’t attend the Steelers’ practices, he just showed up for the games.

“He will not even don pads,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported, “but will be used exclusively as a placekicker.”

No practices and no pads! What a sweet deal. Alas, he made just 2 of 14 field-goal attempts that year and decided, wisely, to retire for good.

Niccolai’s final season is one of the worst of all time by a kicker. His competition:

WORST SEASONS BY KICKERS (10 OR MORE FGA)

Year Kicker, Team Made Att %
1965 Bob Timberlake, Giants      1 15 6.7
1955 Art Michalik, Steelers      1 12 8.3
1939 Clarke Hinkle, Packers      1 10 10
1963 Bob Jencks, Bears      1 10 10
1952 Joe Geri, Cardinals      2 18 11.1
1942 Armand Niccolai, Steelers      2 14 14.3
1963 Jack  Spikes, Chiefs      2 13 15.4
1950 Ted Fritsch, Packers      3 17 17.6

All of them, by the way, kicked in the Old Style, with their toes rather than their instep. By the ’70s, though, almost every club had a soccer-styler, and success rates started going up . . . and up . . . and up. It’s just a more reliable way to boot the ball.

Still, while you’re snickering at these percentages, keep in mind: Many of these guys played another position — back when rosters were smaller — in addition to handling the kicking. That certainly raised the margin for error. (Sonny Jurgensen once told me he never had receiver Bobby Walston run a deep route on third down when the Eagles were in field goal position because he didn’t want Walston to be tired if he was needed to kick.)

Just out of curiosity, I thought I’d find out which kickers have missed the most kicks — field goals or extra points — in a season. There are some interesting names on it, including two Hall of Famers.

MOST MISSED KICKS IN A SEASON (FG AND PAT)

Year Kicker, Team FG PAT Total
1964 Paul Hornung*, Packers 12-38 41-43 28
1961 John Aveni, Redskins 5-28 21-23 25
1976 Jan Stenerud*, Chiefs 21-38 27-33 23
1963 Lou Michaels, Steelers 21-41 32-35 23
1967 Bruce Gossett, Rams 20-43 48-48 23
1969 Tom Dempsey, Saints 22-41 33-35 21
1969 Roy Gerela, Oilers (AFL) 19-40 29-29 21
1969 Gino Cappelletti, Patriots (AFL) 14-34 26-27 21
1966 Bruce Gossett, Rams 28-49 29-29 21
1963 Jerry Kramer, Packers 16-34 43-46 21
1963 Tommy Davis,49ers 10-31 24-24 21
1960 Larry Barnes, Raiders (AFL) 6-25 37-39 21

*Hall of Famer

If you’ve ever wondered why Vince Lombardi’s Packers didn’t win the title in 1963 and ’64 — after going back to back in ’61 and ’62 (and winning three more from 1965 to ’67) — you can start with kicking. Kramer and Hornung missed 44 field goal tries in those seasons, and the Golden Boy’s 26 misses in ’64 are an NFL record that probably will last forever. After serving a one-year suspension in ’63 for betting on games, Paul simply lost it as a kicker.

It’s also worth noting that the kicker who has missed the most field goal attempts in a game since 1960 — the Cardinals’ Jim Bakken, six, vs. the Falcons in ’66 — turned around the next season and booted seven in a game, a mark that wasn’t broken for 40 years.

That’s what was so ironic about the Bills-Lions game. Henery got fired for going 0 for 3, right? Guess who the last kicker to have an 0-for-4 day was.

Carpenter, Buffalo’s hero, in 2010.

So maybe this isn’t the last we’ve heard of Alex Henery.

Armand Niccolai clothing ad

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Paul Hornung’s forgotten streak

On this day in 1961, Paul Hornung did something that hasn’t been done since — and probably won’t be done again. The Hall of Fame running back, who doubled as a kicker, scored the Packers’ first 31 points in a 45-7 beatdown of the Colts. The highlights of his epic performance:

That was from a ’70s game show, by the way, hosted by Dick Enberg called “Sports Challenge.” The episode you were watching pitted three Packers (Hornung, offensive guard Jerry Kramer and Hall of Fame defensive end Willie Davis) against a team of Dallas Cowboys (quarterbacks Don Meredith and Eddie LeBaron and receiver Frank Clarke). All of them were retired by then (1972, I’m guessing).

Many of the questions were easy — nobody wanted to make the contestants look bad — but it was still funny to see how little some of them knew about the history of their own sports, never mind other sports. (Even recent history . . . like the previous season.)

But getting back to Hornung, he was one of the last of a breed: an offensive star who also kicked. There were a plenty of them in pro football’s first few decades, when rosters were smaller and players had to multitask. By the late ’50s, though, you started to see more and more kicking specialists, guys who did nothing else (except maybe punt, like the 49ers’ Tommy Davis). Paul managed to hold out as a two-way threat through the 1964 season, at which point coach Vince Lombardi replaced him with Don Chandler.

As you saw in the clip, Hornung could do it all — run, catch, kick and, because he’d been a quarterback at Notre Dame, even throw the occasional option pass. (That was the “run-pass option” Enberg referred to on the last touchdown, when Paul decided to run.) As a result, he scored tons of points for those great Packers teams — a record 176 in 12 games in 1960 (since topped only by LaDainian Tomlinson’s 186 in 16 games for the Chargers in 2006), 146 the next season (also in 12 games) and 31 straight that afternoon against the Colts (whose defense, let’s not forget, featured Hall of Fame linemen Gino Marchetti and Art Donovan).

Hornung’s consecutive-points streak was actually 32, because he’d booted the PAT after Green Bay’s final score the previous week. Think about it: What would it take for somebody to do that today? Answer: Kick 11 field goals — with no intervening touchdowns or safeties. It’s possible, certainly, but nobody has come close to pulling it off. In 2007, for instance, the Bengals’ Shayne Graham booted seven field goals to score all of his team’s points in a 21-7 win over the Ravens. But that was pretty much the extent of his streak (22, counting a point-after the game before).

Indeed, I’ve come across just five examples since World War II of players scoring 20 or more points in a game and having it be all the points their club scored. The list:

PLAYERS WHO SCORED ALL OF THEIR TEAM’S POINTS IN A GAME (20+)*

Date Player, Team Opponent Pts How he scored
11-19-50 RB Doak Walker, Lions Packers 24 3 TD catches, 3 PAT, 1 FG
11-11-07 K Shayne Graham, Bengals Ravens 21 7 field goals
11-18-96 K Chris Boniol, Cowboys Packers 21 7 field goals
12-8-62 FB Cookie Gilchrist, Bills (AFL) N.Y. Titans 20 2 TD runs, 2 PAT, 2 FG
12-1-46 FB Ted Fritsch, Packers Redskins 20 3 TD runs, 2 PAT

*Since World War II.

(People forget what a talent Gilchrist was. Besides leading the league in rushing that season with 1,096 yards, he kicked eight field goals and 14 extra points.)

Still, the record for most consecutive points doesn’t belong to Hornung. No, it’s the property of another Hall of Famer, Chicago Cardinals back Ernie Nevers, who scored 59 straight over five days (Sunday/Thanksgiving Day) in 1929 — 19 vs. the Dayton Triangles and 40 vs. the Bears. (The latter, incidentally, remains the mark for points in a game.

Several other consecutive-points streaks in the ’20s also were longer than Hornung’s. Nevers had another lengthy streak — 47 points — in 1926, Hall of Famer Paddy Driscoll of the Cardinals Nevers' 40-point game storyscored at least 44 straight (there’s some uncertainty) in ’23 and Hank Gillo of the Racine (Wis.) Legion had a 43-point run in ’24.

Then there’s the streak put together by Ralph Kercheval of the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1934 and ’35. That one might be the most remarkable of all. Over a span of eight games in those two seasons, Kercheval, a running back-kicker, scored every one of the Dodgers’ points — all, uh, 34. (Brooklyn didn’t exactly have a dynamic offense.) He extended his run to 40 the next week with two field goals, but then teammate Red Franklin ended it with a rushing touchdown. Hard as it is to believe — even for those low-scoring times — Kercheval’s streak (three touchdowns, six field goals, 4 PATs) lasted almost a year. It began Oct. 28, 1934 and ended Oct. 6, 1935.

It’s easy to cast aspersions on the early NFL. It was, after all, a much different game. But there’s one thing players did back then that today’s heroes will never match: score large numbers of points consecutively.

Hey, it’s something. One last screengrab:

Walker's 24-point day, 1950

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Passing for a pile of yards — and winning!

Whoever coined the phrase “statistics are for losers” might have had the 400-yard passing game in mind. At first glance, it seems like a significant achievement, one of those My Greatest Day in Football deals. That was certainly the case in the more defense-oriented ’70s, when there were only five 400-yard performances in the entire decade.

But on closer inspection you realize that, hey, a lot of these quarterbacks lost the game. (Exhibit A: the Cowboys’ Tony Romo, who went for 506 last October against the Broncos in a 51-48 defeat.) Indeed, from 1970 — the year the NFL and AFL merged — through 2012, most of these 400-yard passers lost the game. Their record was 115-118-2 (playoffs included). Here’s the breakdown:

RECORD OF QUARTERBACKS WHO THREW FOR 400 YARDS IN A GAME

Years W L T Pct
1970s 3 2 0 .600
1980s 37 32 1 .536
1990s 28 17 0 .622
2000s 33 34 1 .493
’10-12 14 33 0 .298
Totals 115 118 2 .494

The line for the 2010-to-’12 period, with its woeful winning percentage (.298), really stands out. It suggests there are more “empty” passing yards these days — that is, yards that don’t necessarily lead to victories — than ever before. And that makes sense, given all the rule changes favoring the quarterback, his receivers and even his blockers. Let’s face it, if it were this easy to throw the ball in the ’30s and ’40s, Sammy Baugh’s name would come up in conversation much more regularly.

But something interesting has happened the past two years: Quarterbacks who have passed for 400-plus yards have started winning more. When Peyton Manning racked up 479 yards Sunday in the Broncos’ 41-20 battering of the previously perfect Cardinals, it raised the record of 400-yard QBs since the start of 2013 to 18-11 (.621).

Suddenly, a 400-yard game isn’t, as often as not, just a nice consolation prize. Suddenly it isn’t merely the result of a quarterback having to take to the air because his team was desperately behind. Teams are getting ahead by passing, staying ahead by passing and closing out games by passing — as Manning did in Week 5.

Consider: Leading by 21 with 3:58 left — and with Arizona down to its No. 3 QB because of injuries — Peyton began a series from the Denver 32 with . . . a 13-yard completion to Demaryius Thomas. (Granted, he wanted Thomas to break Shannon Sharpe’s club record of 214 receiving yards in a game — and that catch put Demaryius over the top with 226 — but still . . . . Times sure have changed.)

Then, too, perhaps quarterbacks are winning more of these 400-yard passing games because they’re getting more practice at it. As you may have noticed in the above chart, the number of them has increased dramatically in this decade. There were 12 400-yard games in 2010, 20 in 2011, 15 in 2012 and 26 last season. Those are four of the six highest totals in league history. We’re not even halfway through the ’10s, and already there have been 76 400-yard passing games. That’s more than the ’70s and ’80s combined (75) — and six more than any other decade, for that matter (next most: the ’80s with 70).

Of course, there’s always the possibility the pendulum will swing back again — as it’s been known to do. In the first five years of the 2000s, for instance, 400-yard passers were 23-15-1; in the next eight seasons they were 24-52. This latest blip just happened to catch my attention. When 400-yard passers win 16 games in 2013 alone, twice as many as in any previous year, you might call it Statistically Noteworthy.

Finally, in case you’re curious:

HOW ACTIVE QUARTERBACKS HAVE FARED WHEN THROWING FOR 400 YARDS

Quarterback, Team(s) W-L Pct
Tom Brady, Patriots 5-1 .833
Peyton Manning, Colts/Broncos 13-3 .813
Aaron Rodgers, Packers 3-1 .750
Drew Brees, Saints 6-7 .462
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 2-3 .400
Eli Manning, Giants 2-3 .400
Philip Rivers, Chargers 2-4 .333
Tony Romo, Cowboys 0-5 .000

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The latest Running Back from Nowhere

Once again Sunday, NFL fans watched slack-jawed as another Mystery Running Back darted and dashed all over the field. This time it was Branden Oliver, the Chargers’ undrafted rookie, who amazed the masses, racking up 114 yards rushing, 68 receiving and one touchdown — in just his third game as a pro — as San Diego routed the Jets 31-0.

This is becoming almost an annual event now, pro football’s version of Punxsutawney Phil emerging from his hole to forecast the weather. Oliver’s emergence, of course, just reminds everybody that scouting is a woefully inexact science, especially when it comes to running backs.

We know this because good ones go unclaimed in the draft all the time. Indeed, there have been 17 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the 2000s by backs who weren’t selected. Practically every year, it seems, an overlooked runner makes personnel departments cringe by leading the NFL in rushing, yards from scrimmage, touchdowns or otherwise distinguishing himself. Check out this list:

THE 9 UNDRAFTED BACKS IN THE 2000S WHO HAVE BEEN 1,000-YARD RUSHERS

Running back, Team Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Arian Foster, Texans 2010 327 1,616 4.9 16
Priest Holmes, Chiefs 2002 313 1,615 5.2 21
Willie Parker, Steelers 2006 337 1,494 4.3 13
Ryan Grant, Packers 2009 282 1,253 4.4 11
James Allen, Bears 2000 290 1,120 3.9 2
Dominic Rhodes, Colts 2001 233 1,104 4.7 9
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals 2012 278 1,094 3.9 6
Fred Jackson, Bills 2009 237 1,062 4.5 2
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs 2010 201 1,007 5.0 6

Note: League leaders in bold face. Foster (2,220) and Holmes (2,287) also led the league in yards from scrimmage.

It’s not just these guys, either. It’s all the other guys, the ones who were drafted as afterthoughts in the late rounds. There are plenty of those, too. Such as:

TOP LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS IN THE 2000S

Running back\ Team Round Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Michael Turner, Falcons 5th 2008 376 1,699 4.5 17
Alfred Morris, Redskins 6th 2012 335 1,613 4.8 13
Mike Anderson, Broncos 6th 2000 297 1,487 5.0 15
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants 7th 2010 276 1,235 4.5 8
Chester Taylor, Vikings 6th 2006 303 1,216 4.0 6

Oliver, built along the lines of the Eagles’ Darren Sproles at 5-foot-7, 201 pounds, came out of the same University of Buffalo program that produced James Starks. Starks, you may recall, was one of the nicer stories of 2010. After being drafted in the sixth round by the Packers and spending most of the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, he pulled a Punxsutawney Phil in the playoffs and rushed for 315 yards to help Green Bay win the Super Bowl. It’s the third-highest rushing total by a rookie in the postseason since 1960.

There’s no telling what lies ahead for Oliver. Sunday could be the highlight of his career or it could lead to even better things. With Donald Brown now questionable with a concussion, Ryan Matthews (knee) still out and Danny Woodhead (broken fibula) on injured reserve, there’s plenty of opportunity for the rookie.

But if it is his one, brief, shining moment, it was an awfully good one. His 182 yards from scrimmage are the third most by a running back this season (and include a 50-yard reception).

But getting back to our previous subject — why are so many good backs drafted so low (or not at all)? — it’s interesting to compare the Top 5 rushers this season with the Top 5 passers in terms of what round they went in.

CURRENT TOP 5 RUSHERS

Yds Running Back, Team Round (Pick)
670 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 3rd (71)
460 Le’Veon Bell, Steelers 2nd (48)
404 Arian Foster, Texans UFA
396 Rashad Jennings, Giants 7th (250)
365 Frank Gore, 49ers 3rd (65)

CURRENT TOP 5 IN PASSER RATING

Rating Quarterback, Team Round (Pick)
116.3 Philip Rivers, Chargers 1st (4)
114.8 Aaron Rodgers, Packers 1st (24)
112.9 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 3rd (75)
109.0 Peyton Manning, Broncos 1st (1)
100.3 Andy Dalton, Bengals 2nd (35)

Huge contrast, no? On the quarterback side, you’ve got three No. 1s (two of them very high), a near No. 1 and a No. 3. And on the running back side, you’ve got a second-rounder, two third-rounders, a seventh-rounder and an undrafted free agent.

You hear all the time that the hardest position evaluate is quarterback. Well, on the basis of this, running backs may be even harder to get a read on.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Gronk vs. the greats

Rob Gronkowski scored another touchdown Sunday night in the Patriots’ 43-16 pasting of the previously unbeaten Bengals. That’s what Gronkowski does — at a rate never seen before by a tight end (and by few other receivers in NFL history). His latest, a 16-yarder over the middle from Tom Brady, was his 46th scoring catch in 56 games. Do the math, and it comes out to .82 TDs per game. Wow.

Only four receivers — all wideouts — have had more scoring receptions in their first 56 games. Their names should be pretty recognizable. Three are in the Hall of Fame, and the other, I’ve got to believe, will make it when he’s eligible.

MOST TOUCHDOWNS CATCHES, FIRST 56 GAMES

Years Receiver,Team TD
1962-66 Lance Alworth*, Chargers (AFL) 53
1985-88 Jerry Rice*, 49ers 50
1965-69 Bob Hayes*, Cowboys 47
1998-01 Randy Moss, Vikings 47
2010-14 Rob Gronkowski, Patriots 46
1957-61 Tommy McDonald*, Eagles 42

*Hall of Famer

It’s impressive enough that a tight end is keeping company with some of the greatest deep threats of all time. You get an even greater sense of the Magnitude of Gronk, though, when you compare him to Hall of Famers who played his position. (I threw in a few more who figure to reach Canton eventually — plus Jerry Smith, who held the TD record for tight ends for years and should never be left out of these conversations.)

TD CATCHES BY NOTABLE TIGHT ENDS, FIRST 56 GAMES

Years Tight End, Team TD
2010-14 Rob Gronkowski, Patriots 46
2010-13 Jimmy Graham, Saints 35
1961-64 Mike Ditka*, Bears 30
2003-06 Antonio Gates, Chargers 30
1979-83 Kellen Winslow*, Chargers 29
1965-69 Jerry Smith, Redskins 27
1963-66 John Mackey*, Colts 25
1974-78 Dave Casper*, Raiders 20
1978-81 Ozzie Newsome*, Browns 19
1997-00 Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs 19
1968-72 Charlie Sanders*, Lions 15
2003-06 Jason Witten, Cowboys 14
1963-66 Jackie Smith*, Cardinals 11
1990-93 Shannon Sharpe*, Broncos   7

*Hall of Famer

Sharpe, who finished with 62 touchdown receptions (a record since broken), is a reminder that some players, even future stars, take a while to establish themselves. That wasn’t the case with Gronkowski, of course. In just his ninth game he caught three TD passes against the Steelers and was off to immortality.

That is, if he can stay out of the operating room for a spell. He’s had a rough go if it of late with injuries, but he looked like the Gronk of Old on Sunday night. The Gronk of Old was a wonder to behold.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The hazards of being a 100-catch receiver

Calvin Johnson is hurt. Again. It’s his ankle this time. Andre Johnson, I see, is also questionable this week with an ankle. And Wes Welker, of course, is a high hit away from another concussion, one that might end his career.

Yes, players get hurt in football. And yes, all these receivers have some mileage on them — a collective 31 seasons and 2,389 receptions. But there’s this to consider, too: The Lions’ Johnson caught 122 passes two years ago, tying him for third most all time, and the Texans’ Johnson and Broncos’ Welker each have had five 100-catch seasons, as many as any receiver in NFL history. We’re talking high-volume wideouts. Really high-volume wideouts.

There’s a price you pay when you’re that kind of player, when you put yourself in harm’s way that often. The receivers of yesteryear, with the exception of a few, weren’t nearly as exposed. Seasons were shorter, for one thing, and the running game was much more prominent. In 1960, when the AFL came into being and began changing the equation with its wide-open play, the record for receptions in a season was 84, by Rams Hall of Famer Tom Fears. At that point, only 11 NFL receivers (a total of 16 times) had caught as many as 60 passes in a season. Sixty! Now we have wideouts who are doubling that figure — and then some.

Still, it’s just in the last 20 years that the 100-reception season has become commonplace. Even when the schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978, only one receiver in the next decade had 100 grabs: the Redskins’ Art Monk in ’84 (a record 106). But then there were eight 100-catch guys in ’95, led by the Lions’ Herman Moore with 123 (another record), and that was the tipping point. Last year, five wideouts had 100 or more; the year before, six did. Yawn.

SEASONS WITH THE MOST 100-CATCH RECEIVERS*

Year No.
1995 8
2012 6
2009 6
2007 6
2001 6
2013 5
2002 5

*tight ends included

(Note: Through 1994, there were 10 100-catch seasons in all of NFL-AFL history.)

The receivers aren’t yawning, though. They’re too busy picking themselves off the ground, checking to make sure they aren’t missing any body parts and telling the trainer how many fingers he’s holding up. Think about it: In Calvin Johnson’s 122-reception season, he was targeted 204 times. That means there were 82 other occasions, aside from his catches, when he had a chance to be hit. No wonder his knee was bothering him last year. He had more targets in 2012 than the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy had rushing attempts (200 in 12 games).

Speaking running backs, for the longest time coaches seemed to be conducting a laboratory experiment with them: How much can the human body endure? (See James Wilder’s 492-touch exercise in excess with the 1984 Bucs.) But in recent seasons they’ve stopped putting so much of the load on one back, opting instead for a by-committee approach. This might not be as good for the back’s numbers, but it’s probably better for his long-term health. McCoy’s 314 carries last year, for instance, were the fewest by a league leader since 1990 (and the second-fewest in a non-strike season since the advent of the 16-game schedule).

Further evidence: Only once in this decade has a back had as many as 350 rushing attempts in season (Arian Foster, 2012 Texans, 351). In the first four years of the previous decade, a back reached that level 10 times. And you can’t just attribute it to teams passing more, because the number of rushing attempts per team in 2000 (441.2, on average) was pretty comparable to last year (433.5).

Maybe it’s time for coaches to come to the same conclusion about receivers: that perhaps there are limits, that it might not be the greatest idea for a wideout — many of whom aren’t exactly the biggest players on the field — to catch as many passes as some of today’s wideouts are catching. Never mind whether or not it might shorten a guy’s career. How about the possibility it might shorten his life — or at the very least, affect the quality of his life in the not-too-distant future?

Let’s face it, pro football is a demolition derby — vroom, vroom, crash, crash. And teams have always looked at players as very disposable commodities. When one breaks, you move on to the next name on the depth chart. But maybe, with a little restraint, they don’t have to break quite so often.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Coaching hires in the 2000s: the sequel

Fear of Information Overload yesterday caused me to hold back some of the data I’d gathered for my post on NFL coaching hires in the 2000s. Believe it or not, there are a few other things I’d like to share — if I haven’t worn you out on the subject.

The first one I’ve already touched on, but I want to go into it in greater depth: the increasing number of coaches who never played in the NFL or AFL. More and more, it’s becoming a game of Career Coaches, guys who might have been college players but, as soon as they were done, focused on climbing the coaching ladder.

The most extreme example is Todd Haley, the son of a former NFL cornerback and personnel man, who played golf in college before his father, then with the Jets, brought him into the family business as a scouting-department assistant. Todd, of course, later served as the Chiefs’ coach for nearly three seasons (2009-2011) and is now the Steelers’ offensive coordinator.

In the old days, there were no erstwhile college golfers holding down NFL head-coaching jobs. There were only ex-pro players and, occasionally, men who had coached on the college level. As late as the ’50s and even into the ’60s, it wasn’t unheard of for an active player to also be an assistant coach (e.g. Tom Landry with the Giants). Heck, in 1961, just months after he’d led the Eagles to their last championship, Hall of Fame quarterback Norm Van Brocklin was pacing the sideline as the coach of the expansion Vikings.

You don’t see that sort of thing anymore. Maybe it’s because the coach’s life, with its long hours and year-to-year uncertainty, has limited appeal to today’s players. Or maybe it’s because players, if they play six, eight, 10 years or longer in the league, feel they’re too far behind the Career Coaches, have too much ground to make up, to have a realistic shot at landing good coaching jobs. So they go into business, where their name recognition can help them, or perhaps they end up in the media, talking about the game instead of teaching it.

There are all kinds of reasons, no doubt, why the situation has developed the way it has. But the numbers are inescapable: In 1970, the first season after the AFL-NFL merger, 16 of the 26 coaches in the league were former players; this season, only six of 32 are (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose three NFL games during the 1987 strike were of the replacement variety).

The circle of life — or what used to be the circle of life in pro football — has been broken. It’s no longer, for those who might desire it: playing career, coaching career, possibly head coaching career (either pro or college). It’s now playing career (coached mostly by Career Coaches) followed Something Else (because the Career Coaches have gotten too much of a jump). The 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher, the Titans’ Ken Whisenhunt, the Panthers’ Ron Rivera, the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett — erstwhile NFLers all — are rare exceptions these days. And in the years to come, the exceptions figure to be even rarer. That, at least, has been the pattern over the last 40-odd years.

Check out the difference between the first 24 Super Bowls (1966-89 seasons) and the second 24 (1990-2013). After Super Bowl I, which featured Career Coaches Vince Lombardi (Packers) and Hank Stram (Chiefs), the next 23 had at least one coach, and sometimes two, who were former NFL or AFL players. The rundown:

Former NFL/AFL Players Who Coached a Team to the Super Bowl, 1966-89

SB Coach, Team Opponent Result
II John Rauch, Raiders Packers L, 33-14
III Don Shula, Colts Jets L, 16-7
IV Bud Grant, Vikings Chiefs L, 24-7
V Don McCaffrey, Colts Cowboys W, 16-13
V Tom Landry, Cowboys Colts L, 16-13
VI Tom Landry, Cowboys Dolphins W, 24-3
VI Don Shula, Dolphins Cowboys L, 24-3
VII Don Shula, Dolphins Redskins W, 14-7
VIII Don Shula, Dolphins Vikings W, 24-7
VIII Bud Grant, Vikings Dolphins L, 24-7
IX Chuck Noll, Steelers Vikings W, 16-6
IX Bud Grant, Vikings Steelers L, 16-6
X Chuck Noll, Steelers Cowboys W, 21-17
X Tom Landry, Cowboys Steelers L, 21-17
XI Bud Grant, Vikings Raiders L, 32-14
XII Tom Landry, Cowboys Broncos W, 27-10
XIII Chuck Noll, Steelers Cowboys W, 35-31
XIII Tom Landry, Cowboys Steelers L, 35-31
XIV Chuck Noll, Steelers Rams W, 31-19
XV Tom Flores, Raiders Eagles W, 27-10
XVI Forrest Gregg, Bengals 49ers L, 26-21
XVII Don Shula, Dolphins Redskins L, 27-17
XVIII Tom Flores, Raiders Redskins W, 38-9
XIX Don Shula, Dolphins 49ers L, 38-16
XX Mike Ditka, Bears Patriots W, 46-10
XX Raymond Berry, Patriots Bears L, 46-10
XXI Dan Reeves, Broncos Giants L, 39-20
XXII Dan Reeves, Broncos Redskins L, 42-10
XXIII Sam Wyche, Bengals 49ers L, 20-16
XIV Dan Reeves, Broncos 49ers L, 55-10

Summary of the first 24 Super Bowls:

● 23 had at least one coach who was a former NFL/AFL player (95.8%).

● 7 had two coaches who were former players (29.2%).

● Super Bowl XX (Ditka-Berry) is the last one that had two coaches who were former players.

● 12 former players coached teams to the Super Bowl:

Coach W-L
Noll 4-0
Shula 2-4
Landry 2-3
Grant 0-4
Reeves* 0-3
Flores 2-0
McCafferty 1-0
Ditka 1-0
Rauch 0-1
Gregg 0-1
Berry 0-1
Wyche 0-1

*Had a fourth appearance (and loss) with the 1998 Falcons.

● 12-18 combined record (.400), 30 of 48 berths (62.5%).

● 6 former players won (Noll, Shula, Landry, Flores, McCafferty, Ditka).

On to the second half of Super Bowl history . . .

Former NFL/AFL Players Who Coached a Team to the Super Bowl, 1990-2013

SB Coach, Team Opponent Result
XXX Bill Cowher, Steelers Cowboys L, 27-17
XXXIII Dan Reeves, Falcons Broncos L, 34-19
XXXIV Jeff Fisher, Titans Rams L, 23-16
XL Bill Cowher, Steelers Seahawks W, 21-10
XLI Tony Dungy, Colts Bears W, 29-17
XLIII Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals Steelers L, 27-23
XLVII Jim Harbaugh, 49ers Ravens L, 34-31

Summary of the last 24 Super Bowls:

● 7 had a coach who was a former player (29.2%).

● 0 had two coaches who were former players (0%).

● 6 former players coached teams to the Super Bowl:

Coach W-L
Cowher 1-1
Dungy 1-0
Reeves 0-1
Fisher 0-1
Whisenhunt 0-1
Harbaugh 0-1

● 2-5 combined record (.286); 7 of 48 berths (14.6%).

● 2 former players won (Cowher, Dungy).

Total for the 48 Super Bowls:

● 37 of 96 berths (38.5%).

● 14-23 combined record (.378).

● 6 former players won one of the first 20 Super Bowls (McCafferty, Landry, Shula, Noll, Flores, Ditka).

● 2 former players have won one of the last 28 Super Bowls (Cowher, Dungy).

You can see the trend, too, in the following list:

Former NFL/AFL Players Hired as Head Coaches in the 2000s

● 2000 (1 of 7 vacancies) — Jim Haslett/Saints.

● 2001 (3 of 8) — Marty Schottenheimer/Redskins, Dick LeBeau/Bengals, Herman Edwards/Jets.

● 2002 (4 of 8) — Steve Spurrier/Redskins, Tony Dungy/Colts, Marty Schottenheimer/Chargers, Mike Tice/Vikings.

● 2003 (1 of 5) — Jack Del Rio/Jaguars.

● 2004 (1 of 7) — Mike Mularkey/Bills.

● 2005 (0 of 3) — None.

● 2006 (4 of 10) — Herman Edwards/Chiefs, Art Shell/Raiders, Gary Kubiak/Texans, Jauron/Bills.

● 2007 (1 of 7) — Ken Whisenhunt/Cardinals.

● 2008 (1 of 4) — Jim Zorn/Redskins.

● 2009 (1 of 11) — Mike Singletary/49ers.

● 2010 (0 of 3) — None.

● 2011 (5 of 8) — Jim Harbaugh/49ers, Leslie Frazier/Vikings, Jason Garrett/Cowboys, Mike Munchak/Titans, Ron Rivera/Panthers.

● 2012 (2 of 7) — Jeff Fisher/Rams, Mike Mularkey/Jaguars.

● 2013 (1 of 8) — Doug Marrone/Bills.

● 2014 (1 of 7) — Ken Whisenhunt/Titans.

Note: Interim coaches not included.

● Total: 26 of 103 hires (25.2%).

● 1 has won the Super Bowl (Dungy).

● 3 have taken a team to the Super Bowl (Dungy, Whisenhunt, Harbaugh). Record: 1-2, .333.

● That’s 3 Super Bowl berths out of 28 (10.7%).

Where does this leave us? Well, I’m not convinced the NFL would be radically different if there were more former players serving as head coaches. But I am convinced the game would be better. Why? Because there are undoubtedly some very good football minds that aren’t going into coaching, many more than before. And just as there are never enough good quarterbacks, there are never enough good coaches. Remember: 12 of the first 20 Super Bowls were won by teams coached by ex-players.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Friday Night Fights V: Ernie Ladd vs. Wahoo McDaniel

Not sure exactly when Ernie Ladd and Wahoo McDaniel, two heroes of the early AFL, met in this tag-team match at the International Amphitheatre in Chicago. YouTube says it was “the early ’70s.” That’ll have to suffice. Wrestling’s records, I’m afraid, aren’t nearly as exacting (or available) as boxing’s are.

Each man was legendary in his own way. Ladd was as enormous as he was talented — a 6-foot-9, 325-pound (at his heaviest), all-league defensive tackle for the Chargers. John Schmitt, the Jets’ Wahoo in headdresscenter, had a great quote about playing against him for the first time. “I looked up across the line of scrimmage,” he said, “and there was Ernie Ladd. His eyeballs weighed five pounds apiece.”

Ladd also had a prodigious appetite, and is said to have eaten 124 pancakes at one sitting in a contest. If you want to find out more about the “Big Cat,” as he was called, check out this piece I wrote about him in 2007, not long after he died. It only begins to do him justice.

McDaniel, a 6-1, 235-pound linebacker, was a novelty because of his Native American heritage. He came from Choctaw stock and would enter the ring wearing a feathered headdress. HIs celebrity skyrocketed when he was traded from the near-invisible Broncos to the Jets in 1964, the year before Joe Namath arrived. The Shea Stadium P.A. announcer would say, “Tackle by . . . guess who?” And the crowd would shout, “Wahoo!”

Bud Shrake wrote a classic portrait of him in Sports Illustrated 50 years ago. A must read (if only to be reminded of how great SI used to be).

It’s hard to say how many times Ladd and McDaniel met on the mat, but — wrestling being wrestling — it was certainly more than a few. Here’s an account of one bout in Dallas in 1966 that ended in a draw when “both were counted out on the ring apron.”

Wahoo Ladd double KO in '66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guess it was part of their act, because they did it again in Lakeland, Fla., in 1978:

Wahoo beats Ladd 1978

 

 

 

 

In the following clip, McDaniel is teamed with Cowboy Bill Watts, a former teammate at the University of Oklahoma, where they played under Hall of Famer Bud Wilkinson. In fact, Wahoo still holds the Sooners record for longest punt: 91 yards. Watts, a defensive tackle, left school early and signed with the Houston Oilers, but was cut in camp in 1961 (something I never knew until I researched this).

Oilers drop Billy Watts

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ladd’s partner is the equally famed Billy Graham. You can watch the whole video if you want; I’ve just pulled out some footage of Wahoo and Big Cat going at it, a little over a minute’s worth. As you’ll see, they both do some damage.

“He was a wild, crazy Indian,” McDaniel’s daughter, Nicky Rowe, said when he died in 2002. “He was bigger than life. He was amazing.”

As we pick up the action, Graham, in trouble, is about to tag Ernie, who then climbs through the ropes to get at Wahoo. Brace yourselves.

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Ernie Ladd revisited

Since Ernie Ladd, the mammoth defensive tackle for the Chargers (and others) in the ’60s, is featured in this week’s Friday Night Fight, I thought I’d post my tribute to him when he died in 2007. Hopefully it’ll give you a better sense of the man — large in every respect.

“He was so big and strong, he didn’t have to be mean.”

— Billy Shaw, the Bills’ Hall of Fame guard

Everything about Ernie Ladd was supersized, from his height (6-9, same as Too Tall Jones) to his appetite (124 pancakes at one sitting). He was a 325-pound defensive tackle in an era, the 1960s, when a 250-pounder was considered strapping. The ground shook — and so did opponents — when Ladd walked.

He also hit Bobo Brazil over the head with a chair once.

This was in 1971, after his days as a quarterback cruncher for the Chargers, Oilers and Chiefs were over. Back then, you see, a fellow as large — indeed, mythic — as Ernie couldn’t simply be a Screen Shot 2014-10-03 at 12.28.21 PMprofessional football player. There was too much money to be made in the wrestling racket. As 49ers Hall of Famer Leo Nomellini, another moonlighting grappler, put it, “After you hit 30 or 32, football hurts your bones. A wrestler can go until he’s 45 or 50 and be good at it.”

Ladd, who died of cancer Saturday at 68, might have been the last of the breed. Sure, Lawrence Taylor and Fridge Perry did some rolling around, but no big name footballer since the “Big Cat,” as Ernie was called, has had anything resembling a career in the ring. (And none of them, of course, ever had to deal with Bobo Brazil’s dreaded Cocoa Butt.)

We forget how strong the connection was between the pro football and wrestling once upon a time. In the ’20s and ’30s, Jim McMillen, Gus Sonnenberg, Joe Savoldi, Bronko Nagurski and scores of other NFLers took to the mats and helped popularize the sport. Sonnenberg, the Providence Steam Roller’s 5-6 fireplug, introduced the flying tackle; Savoldi, the Chicago Bear by way of Notre Dame, gave us the dropkick. Nagurski, meanwhile, amazed the masses by keeping up a full ring schedule while playing for the Bears in 1937. In one 22-day stretch, he had five football games (from Green Bay to Pittsburgh) and eight wrestling matches (from Vancouver to Philadelphia).

Who knows how good these guys really were between the ropes? (A sportswriter once joked that Bronko was “one of the dozen or 15 world’s wrestling champions who flourished simultaneously a few years ago.”) In the end, though, it doesn’t matter. They put fannies in the seats — and turned the previously moribund mat game into the spectacular it is today.

It was in the cleat marks of Sonnenberg, Nagurski and the rest that Ladd followed. Pro football had never seen a behemoth like him when he joined the Chargers out of Grambling in 1961. In fact, he might still be the greatest extra-large player in the game’s history, a four-time All-Star who played in four title games in eight seasons before his left knee gave out.

“He was so big and strong, he didn’t have to be mean,” said Billy Shaw, the Bills’ Hall of Fame guard.

Courageous, too. After arriving in New Orleans for the 1965 AFL All-Star Game, Ladd and other black players had problems getting white taxicab drivers to pick them up. So they banded together and forced the owners to move the contest. Barely 15,000 showed up for the unplanned event in Houston, making it an embarrassment all around for the young league, but an important point had been made.

Ernie also played out his option that year and became a free agent, a rarity in those days. (Only the strongest of the strong dared to buck management like that.) He signed with Houston for Screen Shot 2014-10-03 at 12.31.24 PMmuch more money than San Diego was paying him but played just one more full season because of injuries.

There was still wrestling, though. And on the night of Sept. 14, 1971, after the tag team of Flying Fred Curry and the Stomper had fought to a draw with Mitsu Arakawa and Mr. Sato, Ladd tried to take Brazil’s U.S. championship from him. The end of the bout came suddenly, the local newspaper reported, when Bobo was “hit over the head with a chair . . . [and] counted out.”

Alas, because Ernie neglected to pin him — this is wrestling, remember — Brazil retained his belt. “A rematch,” the paper said, “has been set.”

The next time, you’ll be pleased to know, the Big Cat finished the job. After which he probably celebrated by eating “two shrimp cocktails, three dishes of coleslaw, three servings of spinach, three baked potatoes, eight rolls and butter, [a] half gallon of milk, three exotic desserts . . . and four 16-ounce steaks” — as he once did to impress a reporter.

It was just another meal for larger-than-life Ernie Ladd.

“You should see him eat when nobody’s watching,” a teammate said.

From The Washington Times, March 15, 2007

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More than you ever wanted to know about coaching hires

Now that Dennis Allen has been asked to turn in his key fob in Oakland, after coaching the Raiders for a mere 36 games (28 of them losses), it might be a good time to talk about NFL coaching hires. It’s a fertile area for study, with plenty of data to analyze, yet little is ever written about it. Coaches come and coaches go — sometimes at a head-spinning rate — and everybody seems fine with that. Maybe it’s because they can’t score points in Fantasy Football.

Take this year’s seven new hires. At the quarter pole of Season 1, this is where they stand:

Coach,Team W-L
Jim Caldwell, Lions 3-1
Bill O’Brien, Texans 3-1
Mike Zimmer, Vikings 2-2
Mike Pettine, Browns 1-2
Jay Gruden, Redskins 1-3
Lovie Smith, Bucs 1-3
Ken Whisenhunt, Titans 1-3
Total 12-15

It’s just a snapshot, sure, but did anybody have much of a feel going into the season about which of these coaches would be successful right out of the chute and which wouldn’t? Along those same lines, would anyone wager much money on which of them — if any — will still be in their jobs, say, five years from now?

Obviously, no coach is an island. Winning takes a village, from the owner and general manager on down. Luck also factors in — especially when you get to draft Oliver Luck with the first pick of the draft instead of JaMarcus Russell or Tim Couch. Even so, there’s much about the selection of an NFL coach that’s just plain mysterious. Here’s why:

There’s no cone drill for a would-be coach to run, no Wonderlic test to take. He doesn’t get asked to jump as high as he can, hoist a barbell until his biceps bark or do anything particularly measurable — except maybe eat a 24-ounce porterhouse at Morton’s during the interview.

Think about it: Teams will put their first-round picks under a magnifying glass, looking for flaws with a jeweler’s scrutiny. The draft has become a national obsession fed by Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and scores of other gurus, amateur and professional. Whose stock is rising? Whose is falling? Should my team trade up? Trade down? Stockpile picks for next year, when talent pool is deeper? Fans take this stuff very seriously. Or to put it another way, you mock their mock draft at your peril.

None of that hysteria — or thoroughness, it would seem — surrounds the hiring of coaches. The Texans (O’Brien) and Bucs (Smith) had their men by Jan. 2, four days after the regular season ended. The other five openings were filled in the next three weeks (and it only took that long because the Browns dawdled before deciding on Pettine). Granted, there’s a practicality to settling on a coach as soon as possible: much work needs to be done. But it makes you wonder how much Deep Thinking is involved in the process, especially since it’s arguably the most crucial decision a club will make.

So why don’t we look at these hires a little more closely, not just the ones this year but all the hires in the 2000s. It gives us a nice-sized sample — 103 in all (interim coaches not included) — from which to spot patterns, draw conclusions and just bat around a subject that, to me, is strangely underexplored. Some of results, no doubt, will surprise you. Such as:

● 26 of the 103 coaches (25.2%) had a quarterback in their first season who either (a.) had started in the Super Bowl or (b.) would start in the Super Bowl. Seems like a lot, doesn’t it? (Of course, part of reason is that we have to include guys like Rex Grossman, Zimmer’s No. 3 in Cleveland, who started in the Super Bowl for the Bears seven seasons ago and, at this stage, is basically on emergency standby. Still, 26 past or future Super Bowl QBs — who would have guessed? And the number can only go up, depending on how some of these young guns (e.g. Luck, Robert Griffin III, Teddy Bridgewater, even Matthew Stafford, who’s still only 26) develop.

● The same number, 26 (25.2%), had a Top 3 draft pick their first year, and 12 (11.7 percent) had the first overall pick (as O’Brien and the Texans did this year).

● Fewer and fewer Super Bowl coaches are former NFL (or AFL) players. Twenty-three of the first 24 Super Bowls featured at least one coach who was an ex-player. The last 24 Super Bowls have been much different; only seven had a coach who had played in the league (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose NFL “career” consists of three games as a replacement during the 1987 strike).

● Average win total of first-year coaches: 7.1. (Read it and weep. Or perhaps not.)

● 61 (64.2 percent) of them, though, improved the team’s record that first season. You can see, then, why owners aren’t shy about firing coaches, even after one year. They usually get an immediate bump — in the short term, anyway.

OK, that’s enough for now. More — much more — as we go along.

Who gets hired?

When I started crunching the numbers, I had some preconceived notions. For one thing, I figured more offensive than defensive coaches would be getting jobs because the game is so tilted toward the offense. My reasoning: Better to have a head guy who knows quarterbacks and can take advantage of all the rules that favor that side of the ball. After all, defense can be such a fruitless proposition nowadays (though a handful of teams, the champion Seahawks first and foremost, play it well).

Anyway, I was wrong. For the 103 coaches hired since 2000, the offense/defense split is virtually identical: 52/51. This season, before the Allen firing, it was dead even: 16 O, 16 D.

I also thought recycled coaches would be more successful than first-timers. Just a hunch; I didn’t have anything concrete to base it on. (Kickers, it seems, are like that, too.) This time my suspicion was (mostly) right. Here’s how it breaks down:

First-time coaches: 66 (not counting the 2014 hires).

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 11 (16.7%), 4 winners (6.1%), 4-8 record (.333).

● Made it to the conference title game: 15 (22.7%), 11 winners (16.7%), 12-13 record (.480).

● Made the playoffs: 32 (48.5%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 48 (16.7%). This number might end up higher because there are still 22 active first-time coaches, several of whom — including Super Bowl winners Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens), Sean Payton (Saints) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) — have been quite successful. But it still takes your breath away.

● Finished at .500 or below: 40 of 48 (83.3%).

Recycled coaches: 30 (again, not counting the 2014 hires).

● Super Bowl: 6 (20%), 5 winners (16.7%), 8-3 record (.727).

● Conference title game: 7 (23.3%), 6 winners (20%), 11-5 record (.688).

● Playoffs: 16 (53.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 24 (33.3%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 16 of 24 (66.7%) Note: Nine recycled coaches are still active.

Admittedly, one coach — e.g. the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who has been to five Super Bowls and won three — can skew things. But even if you eliminated Belichick, you’d still have as many retreads as first-timers winning rings (4) — and a far higher percentage of them (13.3% to 6.1%).

You’re hired to get fired

There’s a reason people are always saying that, and it’s not just because it rhymes. Look at these figures:

● 30 of 66 first-time coaches (45.4%) — Allen being the latest — were gone within three years. (That includes four who bailed for college jobs and another who resigned rather than shuffle his staff.)

● 12 of 30 recycled coaches (46.7%) also lasted three seasons or less.

● And these percentages likely will increase depending on how the last three coaching classes, who haven’t reached the three-year threshold yet, fare.

Not For Long League, indeed.

Offensive coaches vs. defensive coaches

Offensive (48*):

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 9 (18.8%), 4 winners (8.3%), 5-5 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 10 (20.8%), 9 winners (18.8%), 10-5 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 22 (45.8%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 7 of 36 (19.4%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 29 of 36 (80.6%).

Defensive (48*):

● Super Bowl: 8 (16.7%), 5 winners (10.4%), 8-5 record (.615).

● Conference title game: 12 (25%), 8 winners (16.7%), 13-13 record (.500).

● Playoffs: 26 (54.2%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 9 of 35 (25.7%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 26 of 35 (74.3%).

*Not counting 2014 hires.

Again, there’s a Belichick Factor here, but even without him the group has 18 conference title game berths, three more than the offensive bunch. That’s because Tony Dungy (Colts), John Fox (Panthers/Broncos), Lovie Smith (Bears), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Rex Ryan (Jets) all went — or have gone — to two or more.

Note, too, that a significantly higher percentage of defensive coaches have made the playoffs (54.2 to 45.8).

In terms of longevity, here’s the comparison:

● 24 of 36 offensive coaches (66.7%) were fired by the end of their third season.

● 18 of 36 defensive coaches (50%) also never saw Year 4.

Note: 12 offensive and 12 defensive coaches are still on the job.

In-house hires

The sample sizes start to get smaller now. Just 18 coaches fall into this category, eight of whom started with the “interim” title before being given the job outright. (The only current one is the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett.) The breakdown:

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 3 of 18 (16.7%), 0 winners (0%), 0-3 record (.000).

● Made it to the conference title game 3 of 18 (16.7%), 3 winners (16.7%), 3-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 6 of 18 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 4 of 17 (23.5 percent). (Garrett is excluded because he’s still coaching.)

● Finished at .500 or below: 13 of 17 (76.5 percent).

● Lasted three seasons or less: 12 of 18 (66.7%).

Coaches who came from the college ranks

There have been 12 of these, an even smaller group.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 1 winner (8.3%), 1-1 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 2 winners (16.7%), 2-2 record (.500).

● Made the playoffs: 4 of 12 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 0 of 7 (0%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 7 of 7 (100 percent).

Note: 5 are still active, including the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll, the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh and the Eagles’ Chip Kelly.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 6 of 9 (66.7%). (Three of the active coaches are in their first or second year.)

Unemployed/retired coaches

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000). (Take a bow, Tom Coughlin.)

● Made it to the conference title game: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 10 (50%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 7 (28.6%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

Note: 3 are still on the sideline — the Giants’ Coughlin, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher and the Bucs’ Lovie Smith.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 8 (37.5%).

Coaches just fired by another team

This is the smallest bunch of all. I’m talking about guys who were hired immediately after losing a head job somewhere else.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 1 winner (14.3%), 1-1 record (.500). Any guesses who the two coaches are? Answer: Tony Dungy, who won with the Colts after being fired by the Bucs, and John Fox, who lost with the Broncos after being canned by the Panthers.

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 2 winners (28.6%), 2-1 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 5 (40%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 3 of 5 (60%).

Note: Fox and the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, cast off by the Eagles, are still gainfully employed.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 6 (50%). (Reid is in only his second season in Kansas City.)

Better, worse or the same?

How have coaches done in their first year, compared to the team’s previous season?

● Better record: 61 of 95 (64.2%).

● Same record: 6 of 95 (6.3%).

● Worse record: 28 of 95 (29.5%).

(Dom Capers’ first season with the Texans in 2002 is excluded because it was an expansion team.)

● Missed the playoffs: 69 of 96 (71.9%).

● Went to the playoffs: 27 of 96 (28.1%).

● Took team to the playoffs after it had missed them the season before: 20 of 95 (21.1%).

● Missed the playoffs after the team had gone the season before: 2 of 95 (2.1%).

(Again, Capers was excluded from the last two because the ’02 Texans didn’t have a “season before.”)

● Winning record: 31 of 96 (32.3%).

Of those 31, 25 went to the playoffs, two went with .500 (John Fox/2011 Broncos) or below (Pete Carroll/2010 Seahawks, 7-9) records and six missed them.

● .500 record: 13 of 96 (13.5%). So 44 of 96 (45.8%) finished .500 or better. (And Jeff Fisher just missed with the 2012 Rams at 7-8-1.)

What kind of draft situation do new coaches walk into?

● First overall pick: 12 of 103 (11.7%).

● Top 3 pick: 26 of 103 (25.2%).

● Top 5 pick: 38 of 103 (36.9%).

● Top 10 pick: 61 of 103 (59.2%).

● No first-round pick: 10 of 103 (9.7%).

● Worst top pick of any of the 103 coaches hired since 2000: 95th (Allen, Raiders, 2012). Yup, that’s a real plum job Dennis landed. (Oakland used the third-rounder to select guard Tony Bergstrom, who has started a grand total of one game.)

Taking Over a Winning Team

None of this year’s new coaches was fortunate enough to inherit a winning club, but since 2000:

● 16 of 102 have (15.7%). (Capers excluded.)

● 10 of the 16 (62.5%) went to the playoffs.

● 5 reached the conference title game (Jon Gruden/2002 Bucs, Bill Callahan/’02 Raiders, Norv Turner/’07 Chargers, Jim Caldwell/’09 Colts, Rex Ryan/’09 Jets).

● 3 made it to the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs, Callahan/’02 Raiders, Caldwell/’09 Colts).

● 1 won the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs).

● 4 other first-year coaches also went to the conference title game (Jim Mora Jr./’04 Falcons, Sean Payton/’06 Saints, John Harbaugh/’08 Ravens, Jim Harbaugh/’11 49ers). All of them lost. So 9 of 96 coaches (9.4%) went at least as far as the conference title game in their first season.

Moral No. 1: Changing coaches after a winning year isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world.

Moral No. 2: An almost 1-in-10 chance to get to the conference championship game — for a team that just brought in a new coach — sounds pretty good to me.

Some other factoids:

● Marc Trestman (2013 Bears) is the only coach since 2010 — 33 hires, counting the seven this year — to inherit a winning team. He took over a 10-6 club from Lovie Smith and went 8-8.

● Marty Schottenheimer is the last coach to be fired after a playoff season (14-2 with the ’06 Chargers). The two others this happened to: Tony Dungy (9-7 with the ’01 Bucs) and Steve Mariucci (10-6 — plus a first-round win) with the ’02 49ers.

● The luck of Herman Edwards: Both times he was hired as a head coach, he took over a team that had finished with a winning record the year before but had missed the playoffs — first with the ’01 Jets (9-7 in ’00 under Al Groh, who left for the University of Virginia), then with the ’06 Chiefs (10-6 in ’05 under Dick Vermeil, who retired once and for all). He went 10-6 in his first season with the Jets (and made the playoffs) and 9-7 in his first season with the Chiefs (and made the playoffs again). His team failed to advance both years.

● Vermeil retired twice after having a winning team — the ’99 Rams (successor: Mike Martz) and the ’05 Chiefs (Edwards). Jimmy Johnson (9-7, ’99 Dolphins), Bill Parcells (9-7, ’06 Cowboys), Joe Gibbs (9-7, ’07 Redskins) and Tony Dungy (12-4, ’08 Colts) also retired on a winning note. Five of those six teams made the playoffs (Vermeil’s ’05 Chiefs being the exception).

● Martz (2000 Rams) is the lone coach since 2000 to be handed a Super Bowl winner — or even a Super Bowl loser.

● 1993 was the last year at least half the coaches were former NFL/AFL players (14 of 28). The number has shrunk to six this season (again, not counting picket-line-crosser Payton). That’s 18.8 percent. In 1970, when the two leagues merged, it was 61.5 percent (16 of 26).

What do we make of this mountain of data? Whatever you will, I guess. But sifting through the numbers, an ideal candidate emerges (for me, anyway): a recycled coach from a defensive background who, in a perfect world, has just been fired. Or maybe he’s been out of the game for a season or two.

When you look at the seven new coaches, Lovie Smith comes closest to fitting the profile – the same Lovie, it pains me to add, who lost 56-14 to the Falcons two weeks ago. That’s why, no matter how teams go about them, these coaching searches are still a game of Blind Man’s Bluff. Somewhere out there, though, there has to be another Vince Lombardi, doesn’t there?

Postscript: Because I know you’re dying to find out, here are the 26 Super Bowl quarterbacks I referred to earlier.

First-year coaches who had Super Bowl QBs (past or future)

● Dave Campo, 2000 Cowboys — Troy Aikman (3-0 in the Super Bowl in the past).

● Mike Martz, 2000 Rams — Kurt Warner (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Bill Belichick, 2000 Patriots — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past).

● Mike Sherman, 2000 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past).

● Tony Dungy, 2000 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-2 in future).

● Marty Schottenheimer, 2002 Chargers — Drew Brees (1-0 in future).

● Bill Callahan, 2002 Raiders — Rich Gannon (0-1 in future — that season).

● Jon Gruden, 2002 Raiders — Brad Johnson (1-0 in future — that season).

● Tom Coughlin, 2004 Giants — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total). The Giants also drafted Eli Manning that year (2-0 in future).

● Norv Turner, 2004 Raiders — Kerry Collins (0-1 in past).

● Lovie Smith, 2004 Bears — Rex Grossman (0-1 in future).

● Mike Mularkey, 2004 Bills — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past)

● Romeo Crennel, 2005 Browns — Trent Dilfer (0-1 in past)

● Sean Payton, 2006 Saints — Drew Brees (1-0 in future)

● Brad Childress, 2006 Vikings — Brad Johnson (1-0 in past)

● Mike McCarthy, 2006 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past). Plus, the Packers had drafted Aaron Rodgers (1-0 in future) the year before.

● Ken Whisenhunt, 2007 Cardinals — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total).

● Mike Tomlin, 2007 Steelers — Ben Roethlisberger (1-0 in past, 1-1 in future, 2-1 total).

● John Harbaugh, 2008 Ravens — Joe Flacco (1-0 in future).

● Jim Caldwell, 2009 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Jim Mora Jr., 2009 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Pete Carroll, 2010 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Mike Shanahan, 2010 Redskins — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past). The Redskins also had Rex Grossman (0-1 in past) on the roster.

● Leslie Frazier, 2011 Vikings — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past).

● Mike Munchak, 2011 Titans — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

To boil it down further:

— 18 of the 96 first-year coaches (2000-13) had a QB who had started in the Super Bowl in the past (18.8%).

— 10 had a QB who won the Super Bowl in the past (10.4%).

— 12 had a QB who would start in the Super Bowl in the future (12.5%).

— 6 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl in the future (6.3%).

— 5 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl with them as coach (5.2%).

— The 5 coaches who had QBs with a Super Bowl in their past and future: Martz ’00 (Warner), Coughlin ’04 (Warner), Whisenhunt ’07 (Warner), Tomlin ’07 (Roethlisberger), Caldwell ’09 (P. Manning).

● The 3 coaches who had two past and/or future Super Bowl QBs on the roster: Coughlin ’04 (Warner, E. Manning), McCarthy ’06 (Favre, Rodgers), Shanahan ’10 (McNabb, Grossman).

For a fair number of first-year coaches, in other words, the cupboard is far from bare.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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