Category Archives: 1980s

The statistical phenomenon that is DeAngelo Hall

Statistics were invented for a player like DeAngelo Hall. He isn’t that rare Shutdown Corner everybody lusts for — a Darrelle Revis or a Richard Sherman — and at going-on-31 his Pro Bowl years are probably behind him. The Redskins, strapped for cap dollars, deemed him expendable enough to release him during the 2013 offseason, though he eventually re-signed with them and played well enough to earn a four-year extension.

But Hall does have value, even if it’s declining. He may not be a great cover man, but he’s durable and — here’s where the stats come in — opportunistic. In fact, he’s the football equivalent of that guy at the beach with the metal detector. He’s always finding “loose change” by hanging around the ball. And he’s especially good at doing something with said ball once he latches onto it.

Stat No. 1: Because Hall came out of Virginia Tech early and was 20 when he played in his first NFL game, he played 143 games in his 20s. That gave him an unusual amount of time to make his statistical mark, and he took advantage of it. Consider: Since the big rule changes in 1978, the ones that turned the league into a Picnic for Passers, only one pure corner has had more picks in his 20s than DeAngelo did. The Top 10 looks like this:

MOST INTERCEPTIONS BY A CORNERBACK IN HIS 20S SINCE 1978

Seasons Cornerback Teams(s) Ints
1981-88 Everson Walls Cowboys 44
2004-13 DeAngelo Hall Falcons, Raiders, Redskins 42
1999-07 Champ Bailey Redskins, Broncos 42
2003-10 Asante Samuel Patriots, Eagles 42
1992-00 Terrell Buckley Packers, Dolphins, Broncos 38
1991-97 Aeneas Williams Cardinals 38
1996-03 Donnie Abraham Bucs, Jets 36
1988-95 Eric Allen Eagles, Saints 35
1995-03 Ty Law Patriots 35
1989-96 Deion Sanders Falcons, 49ers, Cowboys 34

Note: Ronnie Lott (43) and Ray Buchanan (38) aren’t included because they got some of their interceptions at the safety spot (enough, at least, to take them below the cutoff of 34).

Granted, Hall has a tendency to gamble, but 42 picks are 42 picks, particularly in an era with low interception rates and a ton of one-possession games. Often, One More Takeaway can be the difference between victory and defeat. That’s what Hall, for all his flaws, gives you.

Stat No. 2: Last season Hall ran back two interceptions and one fumble for touchdowns. That brought his career totals in those categories to five and four. Only one other player in NFL history has returned at least four INTs and four fumbles for scores. Here are the 11 with 3 or more of each:

PLAYERS WITH 3 INTERCEPTION TDS AND 3 FUMBLE TDS, CAREER

Seasons Player Team (s) Int TD Fum TD
1997-12 Ronde Barber Bucs 8 4
2004-14 DeAngelo Hall Falcons, Raiders, Redskins 5 4
1997-11 Jason Taylor Dolphins, Redskins, Jets 3 6
2000-09 Mike Brown Bears, Chiefs 4 3
2000-09 Adalius Thomas Ravens, Patriots 3 3
1991-04 Aeneas Williams Cardinals, Rams 9 3
1988-00 Cris Dishman Oilers, Redskins, 2 others 3 3
1989-98 Anthony Parker Vikings, 4 others 4 3
1969-81 Bill Thompson Broncos 3 4
1970-82 Lemar Parrish Bengals, Redskins, Bills 4 3
1964-79 Paul Krause Redskins, Vikings 3 3

Not a bad bunch. Williams and Krause are in the Hall of Fame, Taylor is surely headed there and I’ve never quite understood why Parrish’s eight Pro Bowls and excellence as a returner don’t merit him serious consideration. Also, did you notice that five of the 11 played at one time or another for the Redskins (for whatever that’s worth)?

Anyway, like I said, DeAngelo Hall was made for stats.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Cordarrelle Patterson and the Snowflake Theory

A snowflake fell in St. Louis on the first Sunday of the NFL season. Not the shoveling kind; the Dave Kindred kind. “At every game, if you’re paying attention, you’ll see something you’ve never seen before,” the esteemed sportswriter once wrote. “It’s my Snowflake Theory. Every game is somehow different from every other game ever played.”

Often, of course, these snowflakes are barely visible to the naked eye, of little consequence in the course of human events. Sometimes, though — when we get lucky — they’re big, fluffy things, happenings that are discussed, analyzed, marveled at and even laughed about long after the clock hits zeroes.

Which brings us to Cordarrelle Patterson, the Vikings’ multi-purpose wide receiver. Patterson, you may have heard, rushed for 102 yards in the Vikes’ 34-6 win over the Rams. No wide receiver — in the modern era, at least — had ever had a 100-yard rushing game. Before that, the best rushing performance by a wideout was 86 by the Seahawks’ Joey Galloway. (He got them all on one play, a touchdown run against the Jaguars as a rookie in 1995.)

Patterson had a quiet offensive day otherwise, though — three catches for 26 yards — so we’re still waiting for a wideout to rack up 100 yards receiving and 100 yards rushing in the same game. That’s the Holy Grail — like 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick flirting with an unthinkable 300 yards passing/200 yards rushing game against the Packers in the 2012 playoffs. (He settled for 263 and 181, which is ridiculous enough.)

Here’s some Stat Candy for you:

WIDEOUTS WITH 100 YARDS RECEIVING, 50 RUSHING IN A GAME SINCE 1960

Date Player, Team Opponent Rec Rush
11-12-95 Joey Galloway, Seahawks Jaguars 5-114-2 1-86-1
9-20-82 James Lofton, Packers Giants 4-101-0 1-83-1
11-5-06 Javon Walker, Broncos Steelers 6-134-2 1-72-1
1-16-83 James Lofton, Packers Cowboys 5-109-1 1-71-1
10-11-87 Kelvin Edwards, Cowboys Eagles 6-100-0 1-62-1
12-5-76 Freddie Solomon, Dolphins Bills 5-114-1 1-59-1

Note: Figures are receptions (or rushing attempts), yards and touchdowns.

Kind of thought Percy Harvin would be in this group. But Harvin’s top rushing total in a 100-yard receiving game is 45 in ’09 vs. the Bears. In fact, he’s rushed for as many as 50 yards just once — on a day he was held to 42 receiving.

Still, Percy strikes me as the kind of player who has a snowflake or two in him. He and Cordarrelle both. This gets me thinking about other snowflakes, other singular single-game events — or, at the very least, exceedingly rare events. The list I came up with:

● Intercepting a pass and scoring a safety. In modern times, the only player who has this double on his resume is James Harrison. Against the Chargers on Nov. 16, 2008, the Steelers linebacker sacked Philip Rivers in the end zone, caused a fumble that was recovered by tackle Marcus McNeill, then tackled McNeill in the end zone for the two points. Later Harrison picked off a pass and ran 33 yards to the Pittsburgh 43. I don’t remember anybody making a big deal of this. And in addition to being highly unusual, it happened in a single quarter (the second). What got more attention — for whatever reason — was that the game produced the first 11-10 final score in NFL history. (Thanks to James’ heroics, Pittsburgh eked it out.)

● 100 rushing yards and 100 punt-return yards. Bears Hall of Famer Gale Sayers did this the same day he tied the NFL record by scoring six touchdowns against the 49ers (Dec. 12, 1965). He was 9 for 113 rushing (long: 50) and 5 for 134 running back punts (long: 85). No one else has managed it since.

● Throwing an interception and intercepting a pass. A Steelers rookie named Tony Dungy chalked up this exploit on Oct. 9, 1977. At safety, the future Bucs and Colts coach picked off a Dan Pastorini throw for the first interception of his pro career. As if that weren’t enough, he also served as Pittsburgh’s emergency quarterback in the fourth quarter — after Terry Bradshaw and Mike Kruczek got hurt — and threw a pair of INTs. (He’d been a QB in college at Minnesota.) Maybe Bill Belichick could let Julian Edelman try this. Edelman, the all-purpose Patriot, has seen action at DB in addition to playing receiver and was a quarterback at Kent State.)

● Three touchdown catches and a punt-return TD: Az-Zahir Hakim, Rams, vs. Bengals, Oct. 3, 1999. TD receptions (all from Kurt Warner): 9, 51 and 18 yards. Punt return: 84. Five players since 1960 have had three (or more) touchdown grabs and also scored a rushing TD — all backs — but only Hakim has accomplished this particular combo. And it’s getting harder to do with all the specialization now.

● 100 punt-return yards with a punt-return TD and 100 kickoff-return yards with a kickoff-return TD. Walter Payton’s younger brother, Eddie, had a game like this for the Vikings against the Lions on Dec. 17, 1977. Kick returns: 5 for 184 with a 98-yard score. Punt returns: 3 for 105 with an 87-yard score.

● 150 yards from scrimmage and 150 yards on punt and kickoff returns. Since 1960, it’s been done as many times in the playoffs (2) as in the regular season. Go figure. The postseason guys:

— Darren Sproles, Chargers, Jan. 3, 2009 vs. Colts: 150 yards from scrimmage (105 rushing, 45 receiving), 178 return yards (72 on punts, 106 on kickoffs). He also scored the winning touchdown in overtime on a 22-yard run.

— Ed Podolak, Chiefs, Dec. 25, 1971 vs. Dolphins: 195 yards from scrimmage (85 rushing, 110 receiving), 155 return yards (153 on kickoffs, 2 on punts). This was the famous Christmas Day game, the one that went into the sixth quarter. Snowflakes (single-game division) that haven’t fallen yet:

● Catching a touchdown pass and returning an interception for a TD. Or to put it another way: Scoring on a pass on both sides of the ball. Nobody in the modern era (read: since 1960) has done it. Surprised? So am I — a little. Especially since Deion Sanders and Roy Green (among others) swung between defensive back and receiver and Mike Vrabel snuck out for 12 TDs as a goal-line tight end when he wasn’t backing up the line (and picking off 11 passes).

● 100 yards rushing, 100 receiving and 100 returning. Again, nobody in the modern era has done it. The Browns’ Greg Pruitt came closest on Nov. 23, 1975 against the Bengals (121 rushing, 106 receiving, 77 returning). A snowflake that hasn’t fallen in decades, but seems bound to with all these quarterbacks running around:

● 50 yards passing, 50 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving. The only player to do it in the last 50 years is Walter Payton, who had 50 passing, 81 rushing and 55 receiving against the Lions on Dec. 22, 1985. Nowadays, though, one of the Mobile QB Brigade — Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III — seems more likely to pull it off. Somebody just needs to catch the defense napping.

Now, you can question the significance of some of these feats, and I respect that. But regardless of how you feel, you have to admit: We’re not talking about walking and chewing gum here. If we were, players would do this stuff a lot more regularly.

Fear not, by the way. Pro Football Daly will keep an eye peeled for any future snowflakes and dutifully report them. It’s one of our hobbies.

Or to put it another way: Snowflake Fever — catch it.

1 Which reminds me: In Week 1 of that First Sack Season, the Browns’ Chip Banks began his NFL career with a three-sack day against the Seahawks. No rookie in the 31 years since has made a better Week 1 debut, sack-wise (though the Titans’ Carlos Hall tied Banks with three against the Eagles in 2002).

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia.

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Giovani Bernard, doing what he does

Giovani Bernard had another Giovani Bernard Game in the Bengals’ Week 1 win over the Ravens: 14 rushes for 48 yards, 6 receptions for 62 yards and 110 yards from scrimmage. Just starting his second season, Bernard has yet to have a 100-yard game rushing or receiving; but he’s had five 100-yard games rushing and receiving, playoffs included (and two others in which he’s gained 99 and 95 yards from scrimmage).

Something I didn’t know until researched it: Bernard last season was just the 10th rookie back in NFL history to gain 500 yards rushing and 500 receiving. And one of the 10, Herschel Walker, was really a fourth-year pro coming out of the USFL, so I’m more inclined to think of Giovani as the ninth. But I’ll leave that call up to you. The list:

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WITH 500 YARDS RUSHING AND 500 RECEIVING

Year Running back Team Rush Rec
2013 Giovani Bernard Bengals 695 514
2006 Reggie Bush Saints 565 742
1999 Edgerrin James Colts 1,553 586
1994 Marshall Faulk Colts 1,282 522
1986 Herschel Walker Cowboys 737 837
1980 Earl Cooper 49ers 720 567
1980 Billy Sims Lions 1,303 621
1965 Gale Sayers Bears 867 507
1964 Charley Taylor Redskins 755 814
1960 Abner Haynes Texans (AFL) 875 576

Several things jump out at you. First, there are three Hall of Famers — Faulk, Sayers and Taylor — though Charley got in as a wide receiver. And James, with the numbers he put up, might make it four.

Second, Taylor is the only rookie who’s had 750 yards rushing and 750 receiving — and he did it 50 years ago in a 14-game season. What a player.

Third, I usually disregard early AFL stats. The league simply wasn’t on a par with the NFL yet. But Haynes — along with the Raiders’ Clem Daniels — is an underappreciated run-catch threat from that era. In the next four seasons, he averaged 15 yards a grab (on 140 receptions). He wasn’t, in other words, just a swing-pass guy. Coach Hank Stram would flank him out, as he did here in the ’62 AFL title game:

We all have our weaknesses. One of mine is for running backs who are multi-dimensional, who give you a little of this and a little of that. Bernard certainly fits that description. What’s surprising is how few backs in the 2000s, rookies or veterans, have had more than one of these 500/500 seasons. (I count 14.) Blame it on all the teams that split the position between a Running Specialist and a Receiving Specialist.

At any rate, only five active backs — the infamous Ray Rice included — have had at least two 500/500 seasons. Here’s that group:

500/500 SEASONS (ACTIVE BACKS)

Running back Team Seasons
Ray Rice* Ravens        3
Reggie Bush Saints, Lions        2
Matt Forte Bears        2
Arian Foster Texans        2
LeSean McCoy Eagles        2

*suspended indefinitely

(Note: Earlier in the 2000s, the Giants’ Tiki Barber had five of these seasons and the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook four. The record is six by Faulk.)

No one would suggest Bernard is a great player. He’s merely the kind who Moves the Ball — whichever way it needs to be moved. There are worse things you can say about a back.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Frank Gore joins the 10,000 Club

Walter Payton (16,726) and Emmitt Smith (18,355) pushed the NFL career rushing record so high that, in the new millennium, 10,000 yards means you’re barely halfway to the top. When Jim Brown (12,312) was the all-time leader from 1961 to ’84, the milestone was a much bigger deal.

Consider: Through the ’95 season — the league’s 76th — just 10 backs had broken the 10,000 barrier. Only one isn’t in the Hall of Fame (and if you’d seen him as a rookie, when he rushed for 1,605 electric yards, you would have sworn he was a shoo-in).

10,000-YARD RUSHERS THROUGH 1995

Yards Running Back Team(s) Years Hall of Fame?
16,726 Walter Payton Bears 1975-87 Yes*
13,259 Eric Dickerson Rams, Colts, 2 others 1983-93 Yes*
12,739 Tony Dorsett Cowboys, Broncos 1977-88 Yes*
12,312 Jim Brown Browns 1957-65 Yes*
12,120 Franco Harris Steelers, Seahawks 1972-84 Yes*
11,352 John Riggins Jets, Redskins 1971-85 Yes
11,236 O.J. Simpson Bills, 49ers 1969-79 Yes*
10,908 Marcus Allen Raiders, Chiefs 1982-95 Yes*
10,273 Ottis Anderson Cardinals, Giants 1979-92 No
10,172 Barry Sanders Lions 1989-95 Yes*

*first year of eligibility

Note that eight of the 10 were elected to the Hall in their first year of eligibility (and Riggins made it in his second).

Since then, 19 more backs have joined the 10,000 Club — including the 49ers’ Frank Gore on Sunday against the Cowboys — which brings the membership to 29. It’s not so exclusive anymore, and that’s reflected in the fact that just six of those 19 are either in Canton or total locks for the place once they’re eligible. The breakdown:

● Already enshrined (4): Emmitt Smith (18,355), Curtis Martin (14,101), Marshall Faulk (12,279), Thurman Thomas (12,074).

● Destined to be enshrined (2): LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684), Adrian Peterson (10,190).

● Has been a finalist but hasn’t been voted in (1): Jerome Bettis (13,662).

● Maybe someday (1): Edgerrin James (12,246).

● Little to no chance, unless the Veterans Committee champions their cause (11): Fred Taylor (11,695), Corey Dillon (11,241), Warrick Dunn (10,967), Steven Jackson (10,730), Ricky Watters (10,643), Jamal Lewis (10,607), Thomas Jones (10,591), Tiki Barber (10,449), Eddie George (10,441), Frank Gore (10,030), Ricky Williams (10,009).

(If it were up to me, I’d give serious consideration to Barber. He’s 10th all time among backs in yards from scrimmage with 15,632 and also did some returning. But I don’t think the selectors are so inclined.)

As for Gore, he’s had a terrific career with seven 1,000-yard seasons and five Pro Bowls, but he’s really had only one monster year — 2006, when he rushed for 1,695 yards and gained 2,180 from scrimmage. None of his other seasons have come within 600 yards of that second figure (best: 1,538). Maybe he’ll have enough staying power put up Undeniable Numbers, but it doesn’t look like it.

At least he made it to 10,000, though, which may not be as rare as it once was but can still prove elusive to even the best backs. Earl Campbell (9,407), for instance, broke down before he got there — which didn’t, of course, keep him out of the Hall. And in recent years, Clinton Portis (an agonizingly close 9,923) and Shaun Alexander (9,453) have fallen short

It’s still a remarkable feat of endurance, never mind talent, whether it leads to Canton or not. Those are large men, after all, who are hitting you, and the ground isn’t exactly a mattress.

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You never want to beat yourself, unless . . .

Had Peyton Manning not sat out the last game of the 2004 season — except for the first three snaps, that is — he might have done something last year that hadn’t been done in two decades: break his own NFL season record.

Manning, you may recall, had 49 touchdown passes going into the ’04 finale at Denver. He’d topped Dan Marino’s mark of 48 the week before, so there was no compelling reason for him to run up the score, so to speak — especially since the Colts had already clinched their division and had no shot at a first-round bye. So after the first series against the Broncos, coach Tony Dungy played it safe and replaced him with Jim Sorgi.

Three years later, the Patriots’ Tom Brady threw for 50 TDs to edge past Manning. And last season Manning threw for 55 to take the record back. But had Peyton gone the distance in the ’04 closer, he might well have thrown for several scores. Indeed, the following week in the playoffs, in a rematch with Denver, he threw for four in a 49-24 blowout. Could Brady have gotten to 52 or 53 – or more? I wouldn’t count on it.

Ah, what might have been. The last time a player broke his own NFL season record, according to my research, was in 1993, when the Packers’ Sterling Sharpe caught 112 passes, surpassing his own mark of 108 set in ’92. (The next year, the Vikings’ Cris Carter topped Sharpe by hauling in 122. So it goes in the receiving game.)

I’m not talking about any old records, by the way. I’m talking about records that fans care about (at least a little). We seem to be at the point in pro football history where this sort of thing – self-erasure – is getting incredibly hard to do.

It wasn’t always thus. In the ’30s and ’40s, another Packers receiver – the iconic Don Hutson – upped his own record nine times in various categories (receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, points scored). Of course, the passing game was still in its infancy then, and Green Bay was one of the few teams that made effective use of it.

Nowadays, though, one record-breaking season appears to be all a player has in him. Take the Saints’ Drew Brees, for instance. Three years ago he threw for 5,476 yards to blow by Marino’s longstanding mark of 5,084. In 2012, however, despite a fabulous effort with a 7-9 team, he fell 299 yards short of his record. Now that he’s 35, he might never get that close again.

Maybe this is another way we can measure greatness: Was a guy good enough to break his own season mark? The list of players who’ve done it since — World War II — is fairly short:

● RB Steve Van Buren*, Eagles (rushing yards) — 1,008 in 1946 (old mark: 1,004), 1,146 in ’49.

● E Tom Fears*, Rams (receptions) — 77 in 1949 (old mark: 74), 84 in ’50.

● K Lou Groza*, Browns (field goals) — 13 in 1950 (old mark: 12 by drop-kicker Paddy Driscoll of the Bears in ’26), 19 in ’52, 23 in ’53. (Yes, he broke his own record twice.)

● RB Jim Brown*, Browns (rushing yards) — 1,527 in 1958 (old mark: 1,146), 1,863 in ’63.

● QB Y.A. Tittle*, Giants (touchdown passes) — 33 in ’62 (old mark: 32), 36 in ’63.

Note: George Blanda tossed 36 TD passes for the Houston Oilers in 1961. But I’m excluding the pre-merger (1960-66) AFL from this discussion, even though the NFL includes the league’s statistics in its record book. It just wasn’t as good a league in the early years (much as I enjoyed it).

● QB Dan Fouts*, Chargers (passing yards) — 4,082 in 1979 (old mark: 4,007), 4,715 in ’80, 4,802 in ’81.

Note: The record Fouts broke in ’79 was set by the Jets’ Joe Namath in a 14-game season. So he didn’t really break it, not if you go by per-game average (255.1 for Dan vs. 286.2 for Broadway Joe). But his ’80 (294.7) and ’81 (300.1) averages were better than Namath’s.

● WR Sterling Sharpe, Packers (receptions) — 108 in 1992 (old mark: 106), 112 in ’93.

* Hall of Fame

As you can see, the only one of the Select Seven who isn’t in the Hall is Sharpe, whose career was cut short by injury. He may yet make it as a Veterans Candidate, though. After all, he did put up some impressive numbers in just seven seasons (595 catches, 8,134 yards, 65 TDs, 5 Pro Bowls).

Anyway, it’s something for the Lions’ Calvin Johnson to think about as he attempts to climb Mount 2,000.

Sources: The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia, pro-football-reference.com

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A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign or trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets – Joe Namath’s team – have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

Year  Team (Record) Receivers, Yards Result
1984  Dolphins (14-2) Mark Clayton 1,389, Mark Duper 1,306 Lost Super Bowl
1995  Lions (10-6) Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488 Wild Card
2000  Rams (10-6) Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471 Wild Card
2000  Broncos (11-5) Rod Smith 1,602, Ed McCaffrey 1,317 Wild Card
2002  Steelers (10-5-1) Hines Ward 1,329, Plaxico Burress 1,325 Won Division
2005  Cardinals (5-11) Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402 Missed Playoffs
2006  Colts (12-4) Marvin Harrison 1,366, Reggie Wayne 1,310 Won Super Bowl
2011  Patriots (13-3) Wes Welker 1,569, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1,327 Lost Super Bowl

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high hopes in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because (a.) Wes missed the last three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout to throw to in Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13). The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed in the direction of their two 1,300-Yard Men.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team(s) W-L Pct
1969-79 Roger Staubach Cowboys 9-0 1.000
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1 .917
2002-13 Michael Vick Falcons, Eagles 6-1 .857
2007-13 Jay Cutler Broncos, Bears 6-1 .857
1963-68 Frank Ryan Browns 5-1 .833
2008-13 Joe Flacco Ravens 5-1 .833

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team (s) W-L-T Pct
1983-98 John Elway Broncos 12-4-0 .750
1992-10 Brett Favre Packers, Jets, Vikings 12-6-0 .667
1961-78 Fran Tarkenton Vikings, Giants 11-6-1 .639
1998-13 Peyton Manning Colts, Broncos 11-4-0 .733
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1-0 .917

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The vanishing shutout

NFL defenses posted just three shutouts last season, one off the all-time low. There weren’t many the previous three years, either — six in 2012 and five in both ’11 and ’10. You don’t have to be Norman Einstein, as Joe Theismann would say, to figure out that’s one shutout every 53.9 games — in this decade, at least.

The whitewash in pro football is even more of an endangered species than the complete-game whitewash in baseball. And you wonder why James Harrison is perpetually perturbed?

If this offensive explosion keeps up — and it shows no signs of abating — the shutout may go the way of the single-bar facemask. Especially with kickers becoming increasingly accurate. Since 2000, 183 shutouts have been spoiled by a single field goal. That didn’t happen nearly as often in the Pre-Soccer-Style Era.

Shutouts, decade by decade (regular season only):

● 1940s (85 total) – 1 every 6.4 games

● 1950s (40) – 1 every 18.2 games

● 1960s* (73) – 1 every 22.1 games

● 1970s (158) – 1 every 12.2 games

● 1980s (98) – 1 every 21.7 games

● 1990s (83) – 1 every 28.1 games

● 2000s (89) – 1 every 28.6 games

● 2010-13 (19) – 1 every 53.9 games

*NFL and AFL combined

In the ’40s, of course, there were too many shutouts. But the situation corrected itself as the T formation spread and the passing game evolved. There were too many shutouts in the ’70s, too. That calamity was fixed by rule changes in 1978 that limited contact against receivers and allowed blockers to use their hands.

Don’t expect the NFL to do anything about the current imbalance, though. Offense sells tickets and, besides, who — outside of defensive players and coaches — is complaining?

Not that these people don’t have a point. Let’s face it, the game hasn’t been this far out of whack in decades. Pro football, to its great profit, has always favored the offense, but there are times when it gets a little ridiculous. This is one of those times.

A shutout miscellany:

The Last 5 Teams to Post Back-to-Back Shutouts

● 2009 Cowboys (11-5) — Beat Redskins 17-0, Eagles 24-0. Lost in second round of playoffs. Hall of Famers: LB DeMarcus Ware (projected). Pro Bowlers: Ware, NT Jay Ratliff, CB Thomas Newman, CB Mike Jenkins.

● 2000 Titans (13-3) — Beat Browns 24-0, Cowboys 31-0. Lost first playoff game. Hall of Famers: None. Pro Bowlers: DE Jevon Kearse, CB Samari Rolle, SS Blaine Bishop.

● 2000 Steelers (9-7) — Beat Bengals 15-0, Browns 22-0. (This came during a five-game stretch in which Pittsburgh allowed no touchdowns and just six field goals.) Missed playoffs. Hall of Famers: None. Pro Bowler: LB Jason Gildon.

● 2000 Ravens (12-4) — Beat Bengals 37-0, Browns 12-0. Won Super Bowl. Hall of Famers (1): FS Rod Woodson (with LB Ray Lewis in the waiting room). Pro Bowlers: Woodson, Lewis, DT Sam Adams.

● 1985 Bears (15-1) — Beat Cowboys 44-0, Falcons 36-0. Won Super Bowl (and racked up two more shutouts in the postseason). Hall of Famers (3): DE Richard Dent, DT Dan Hampton, LB Mike Singletary. Pro Bowlers: Dent, Hampton, Singletary, DT Steve McMichael, LB Otis Wilson, SS Dave Duerson.

The Only Teams Since the 1970 Merger to Post 3 Straight Shutouts

● 1976 Steelers (10-4) — Beat Giants 27-0, Chargers 23-0, Chiefs 45-0. Lost in AFC title game. Hall of Famers (4): DT Joe Greene, LB Jack Lambert, LB Jack Ham, CB Mel Blount. (They had five shutouts in all, tying them with the 1944 Giants for the most in a season since the ’30s.)

● 1970 Cardinals (8-5-1) — Beat Houston Oilers 44-0, Patriots 31-0, Cowboys 38-0. (Note: A three-week stretch in which they outscored their opponents 113-0.) Missed playoffs. Hall of Famers (2): CB Roger Wehrli, FS Larry Wilson.

Also:

● 1948 Eagles (9-2-1) — Had three 45-0 blowouts (Giants, Redskins, Boston Yanks), the first two in consecutive weeks. Won NFL title. Hall of Famers (2): E Pete Pihos, LB Alex Wojciechowicz.

● 1962 Packers (13-1) — Handed out two 49-0 beatings (Bears, Eagles). Won NFL title. Hall of Famers (5): DE Willie Davis, DT Henry Jordan, LB Ray Nitschke, CB Herb Adderley, FS Willie Wood.

● 1960 Dallas Texans (8-6) — Shut out both teams that reached the AFL championship game (Chargers 17-0, Oilers 24-0). Hall of Famers: None. (DT Buck Buchanan and LB Bobby Bell didn’t come along until ’63.)

And finally, lest we forget:

● The 1934 Lions had more shutouts in their first seven games (7) than the entire NFL had in each of the past four seasons (5, 5, 6, 3).

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Thoughts on the Logan Mankins trade

For me, there are two surprises in the following chart. The first is that only eight rookie tight ends in NFL history have had 50 or more receptions. The second is that every one of them went in the first 40 picks of the draft except for Tim Wright, the guy the Patriots just acquired from the Bucs for six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins. Wright, who played his college ball at Rutgers, was passed over by all 32 teams a year ago.

ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS WHO HAVE CAUGHT 50 OR MORE PASSES

Year  Tight End, Team Rec Yds Avg TD Round-Pick
1988  Keith Jackson, Eagles 81 869 10.7 6 1-13
2002  Jeremy Shockey, Giants 74 894 12.1 2 1-14
1961  Mike Ditka, Bears 56 1,076 19.2 12 1-5
2008  John Carlson, Seahawks 55 627 11.4 5 2-38
1973  Charle Young, Eagles 55 854 15.5 6 1-6
1998  Cam Cleeland, Saints 54 684 12.7 6 2-40
2013  Tim Wright, Bucs 54 571 10.6 5 Undrafted
2010  Jermaine Gresham, Bengals 52 471 9.1 4 1-21

That’s right, no Rob Gronkowski (42 receptions). No Jimmy Graham (31). No Tony Gonzalez (33). No Kellen Winslow Sr. or Jr. (30 combined in their first season). No Shannon Sharpe (7). Maybe this Wright kid is better than we think. (Of course, before today, when the deal was announced, how often did he even cross our minds?)

At the every least, Wright provides low-cost Gronk Insurance in the event the all-world tight end is slow coming back from knee surgery. When No. 87 was out of the lineup last year, the Patriots’ supercharged offense seemed more like a stick shift. Wright also creates significant cap space in case the Pats want to hang onto Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option is a gargantuan $20 million. Mankins, after all, had the Pats’ second-highest cap number after Tom Brady; Wright, meanwhile, like most undrafted free agents, subsists on gruel.

Still, trading a guard with Mankins’ resumé . . . how often has that happened? Well, I dug up one similar example back in the ’70s. (Which isn’t to say there might not be others.) I also found a couple of guards who were dealt after being voted to five Pro Bowls — and two more who were sent packing after being voted to three. The particulars, chronologically:

● Walt Sweeney, Chargers to Redskins (January 1974) — A nine-time Pro Bowler in San Diego (1964-72), Sweeney joined George Allen’s Over the Hill Gang at the age of 33. He started for two seasons in Washington before calling it a career. The Chargers received fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round picks spread over three drafts.

● Ed White, Vikings to Chargers (July 1978) — White had made three Pro Bowls in Minnesota and would make another in San Diego. Though already 31, he ended up playing eight more seasons (which Mankins might try to do just out of spite). The Vikes, in return, got Rickey Young, who caught 88 passes in his first year with them, a record for running backs (since broken).

● Joe DeLamielleure, Bills to Browns (September 1980) — Hall of Famer DeLamielleure, then 29, had been selected for five Pro Bowls in Buffalo and added a sixth in Cleveland. The Bills came away with second- and third-round picks.

● R.C. Thielemann, Falcons to Redskins (August 1985) — Atlanta needed a wideout. Washington wasn’t sold on its right guard. So the 30-year-old Thielemann, a three-time Pro Bowler with the Falcons, was swapped Charlie Brown, who was coming off an injury-marred season after tying for the NFC lead in receptions in ’83. R.C. was just a spoke in the wheel with the Redskins, but he did start on their ’87 championship team.

● Kent Hill, Los Angeles Rams to Houston Oilers (September 1986) — This was the trade, two games into the season, that enabled L.A. to obtain the rights to unsigned QB Jim Everett, the third pick in the ’86 draft (who had no desire to sit behind Canton-bound Warren Moon). Hill, part of a mega-package that included DE William Fuller and two No. 1s, was 29 and had gone to five Pro Bowls. He played that year and one more in Houston and then retired.

As for Everett, he didn’t win the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, but after moving to the Saints he did leave us with this memorable clip:

Anyway, yeah, this Mankins trade is extremely rare. I wouldn’t want to be the team that comes out on the short end of it.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, NFL.com

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A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign/trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets — Joe Namath’s team — have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

Year  Team (Record) Receivers, Yards Result
1984  Dolphins (14-2) Mark Clayton 1,389, Mark Duper 1,306 Lost Super Bowl
1995  Lions (10-6) Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488 Wild Card
2000  Rams (10-6) Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471 Wild Card
2000  Broncos (11-5) Rod Smith 1,602, Ed McCaffrey 1,317 Wild Card
2002  Steelers (10-5-1) Hines Ward 1,329, Plaxico Burress 1,325 Won Division
2005  Cardinals (5-11) Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402 Missed Playoffs
2006  Colts (12-4) Marvin Harrison 1,366, Reggie Wayne 1,310 Won Super Bowl
2011  Patriots (13-3) Wes Welker 1,569, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1,327 Lost Super Bowl

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high expectations in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because: (a.) Wes missed three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout, Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13), to throw to. The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed toward Garcon or Jackson.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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