Category Archives: 2000s

Marshawn Lynch gets an extension

Given the ever-shrinking value of NFL running backs, Marshawn Lynch’s two-year extension with the Seahawks is a semi-big deal. After all, he’ll soon be 29, which is practically the witching

Who could deny this man a contract extension?

hour for a back, and in recent days we’ve seen the Eagles unload LeSean McCoy, who’s two years younger than Beast Mode, and the Vikings wrestle with the “What do do about Adrian Peterson?” question.

No running back is very safe anymore. Almost all are viewed, by their fourth or fifth season, as expendable — utterly replaceable. Lynch’s case is a little different, though. Not only is he a big-time producer, he’s a big-time producer in the playoffs. He’s a huge reason Seattle has played in the last two Super Bowls (and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll be a huge reason the Seahawks play in any others in the next few years).

Lynch’s 2014 postseason was one of the best in recent memory for a back. Here’s where it ranks in the 2000s, based on rushing yards per game (minimum: three games):

Year	Running Back, Team	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	PG
2012	Frank Gore, 49ers	3	63	319	5.1	4	106.3
2014	Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks	3	63	318	5.1	2	106.0
2001	Marshall Faulk, Rams	3	64	317	5.0	3	105.7
2009	Shonn Green, Jets	3	54	304	5.6	2	101.3
2006	Thomas Jones, Bears	3	55	301	5.5	4	100.3

MOST 100-YARD RUSHING GAMES IN THE PLAYOFFS

Years	Running Back, Team	No.
1997-98	Terrell Davis, Broncos	7
1991-96	Emmitt Smith, Cowboys	7
2010-14	Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks	6
1990-95	Thurman Thomas, Bills	6
1982-83	John Riggins, Redskins	6

Paying any 29-year-old running back top dollar is a risky business, and rarely justified in these pass-crazy times. But if any back is worth it, Lynch is — to this particular team, at least. The Seahawks lean heavily on him, not just to reach the postseason but to win once they get there. It’s one of the things that makes Pete Carroll’s club so refreshingly unconventional. The franchise running back, an endangered species in pro football, is alive and well in Seattle.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

One-for-one trades

LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso.

Trades don’t get any more stripped-down than that, do they? My guy for your guy — period. No draft picks. No throw-in players to balance the scales. No contingencies of any kind. Just . . . one for one. May the best man win.

You forget how unusual these deals are, especially since the advent of free agency. Teams don’t need to trade for players anymore — not as much, anyway. They just have to wait for their contracts to expire. Draft choices, not live bodies, have become the most popular form of currency. They get swapped and swapped and swapped some more until nobody can remember who got traded for what.

Which is probably how general managers prefer it. Who wants to be reminded, year after year, of the boneheaded move he made when he traded X for Y? When you exchange picks for players, there can be much more of a smoke-and-mirrors effect. Keeping track of those can be like that scene in Chinatown when Jake Gittes pores over the real-estate transactions in the Hall of Records. (“So that’s who the Bucs ended up getting for the guy — Jasper Lamar Crabb!”)

So the McCoy-Alonso deal is notable for two reasons: first, because the Eagles willingly traded an in-his-prime running back, one who won the NFL rushing title in 2013; and second, because they received not draft selections from the Bills but an outside linebacker, arguably the league’s top rookie two years ago (before he blew out his knee and missed last season).

A straight-up swap of Known Players. What a novelty.

Naturally, I felt compelled to put together a list of other memorable one-for-one trades in NFL history. You may have other favorites, and I welcome additions, but here are 10 that come to mind:

10 STRAIGHT-UP, PLAYER-FOR-PLAYER TRADES

● 2005 — WR Laveranues Coles from the Redskins to the Jets for WR Santana Moss.

Santana Moss snares one vs. the Lions.

This was one of the weirder deals. Coles, after all, had left the Jets after the 2002 season to play in Steve Spurrier’s “Fun ’n’ Gun” offense in Washington. But Spurrier quit a year later, Joe Gibbs returned for a second term as coach and Laveranues decided he’d be happier back in New York. So the Redskins exchanged him for Santana Moss — and were they ever glad they did. Over the next decade, Moss caught 581 passes for 7,867 yards and 47 touchdowns. Coles played four more seasons with the Jets before they cut him and had 289 receptions for 3,439 yards and 24 TDs.

Winner: Redskins.

● 1989 — RB Earnest Byner from the Browns to the Redskins for RB Mike Oliphant.

Byner needed a change of scenery after his crushing fumble in the 1987 AFC title game, which followed him around in Cleveland wherever he went. The Browns obliged by sending him to Washington for Oliphant, the Redskins’ super-speedy third-round pick in ’88. Byner had two 1,000-yard seasons in D.C., went to two Pro Bowls and was the leading rusher on the 1991 championship team. Oliphant touched the ball exactly 25 times in Cleveland (playoffs included) before his career petered out.

Winner: Redskins.

● 1984 — RB James Brooks from the Chargers to the Bengals for FB Pete Johnson.

Brooks, a situation back behind Chuck Muncie in San Diego, blossomed in Cincinnati, making four Pro Bowls and retiring as the Bengals all-time leading rusher with 6,447 yards — a total surpassed only by Corey Dillon’s 8,061. (He also was a terrific receiver and ferocious blocker, as Boomer Esiason can tell you.) Johnson, more the sledgehammer type, had had some fine years in Cincy, but at 30 he was pretty used up. He played just one more NFL season — and just three games with San Diego before being dealt to the Dolphins, who needed a short-yardage guy for their ’84 Super Bowl run.

Winner: Bengals.

● 1980 — QB Ken Stabler from the Raiders to the Houston Oilers for QB Dan Pastorini.

Ken Stabler

Stabler was 34, Pastorini 31, and neither had much left. The Oilers were hoping The Snake, coupled with Earl Campbell, would finally get them to the Super Bowl, but he threw 28 interceptions in 1980, second most in the league, and had two more picks in the first round of the playoffs as Houston lost to — of all people — Oakland. By then, Pastorini had suffered a broken leg and been replaced by Jim Plunkett, who quarterbacked the Raiders to the title (and to another in 1983).

Winner: Oilers (though neither team got what it was looking for).

● 1977 — QB Ron Jaworski from the Los Angeles Rams to the Eagles for the rights to TE Charle Young.

Jaworski, a three-year veteran, had thrown only 124 NFL passes when Philadelphia acquired him for the unsigned Young, who had already been to three Pro Bowls. Charle never went to another. Jaworski, meanwhile, led the Eagles to four straight playoff berths (1978-81) and one Super Bowl.

Winner: Eagles.

● 1976 — WR Charlie Joiner from the Bengals to the Chargers for DE Coy Bacon.

In 1976, Joiner had yet to emerge as a Hall of Fame receiver (totals for seven seasons: 164 catches, 2,943 yards, 18 touchdowns). Bacon was probably considered the better player because of his pass-rush ability (in the days before the NFL kept track of sacks). Well, Charlie wound up in Canton after being teamed with Dan Fouts and Don Coryell in San Diego, where he racked up 586 more receptions. But Coy, let’s not forget, had two Pro Bowl years in Cincinnati before being traded to the Redskins (with CB Lamar Parish) for a first-round pick.

Winner: Chargers (but both clubs made out well).

● 1965 — WR Tommy McDonald from the Cowboys to the Los Angeles Rams for P-K Danny Villanueva.

Yup, the Cowboys swapped a Hall Fame receiver — admittedly, a 31-year-old one — for a punter-kicker. But keep in mind: They had just added Bob Hayes to the roster and figured they were in good shape at wideout. McDonald had 1,036 receiving yards in his first season with the Rams, third most in the league, and was voted to his sixth and last Pro Bowl. He followed that with another solid year (55-714-2) in ’66 before moving on to the Falcons. Villanueva filled a void in Dallas but was just an ordinary kicker (longest field goal with the Cowboys: 42 yards) and didn’t punt as well as he had in L.A (40.4-yard average vs. 44.3).

Winner: Rams.

● 1965 — CB Fred “The Hammer” Williamson from the Raiders to the Chiefs for CB Dave Grayson.

On the surface, it seemed like a fair trade: the mouthy Williamson, a three-time AFL All-Star, for Grayson, also a three-time AFL All-Star. Grayson was two years younger, though — 26 to Fred’s 28 — and had more of his career ahead of him. Williamson did help Kansas City get to the first Super Bowl in 1966, but Grayson helped Oakland get to the second Super Bowl in ’67 and led the AFL in interceptions the next year. By then, Freddie was out of football and on the verge of becoming a Hollywood action star.

Winner: Raiders.

● 1961 — QB Y.A. Tittle from the 49ers to the Giants for DL Lou Cordileone.

It’s easy, from a distance, to laugh at this trade, but Tittle was almost 35 and Cordileone had been the 12^th pick in the previous year’s draft. Besides, San Francisco was experimenting with a shotgun offense, which required a quarterback who could run, and Y.A. certainly didn’t fit that description. At any rate, he had an amazing Second Act in New York, guiding the Giants to three straight championship games (all, alas, losses), while Cordileone bounced from the Niners to the Rams to the Steelers to the expansion Saints to oblivion.

Winner: Giants.

● 1960 — CB Night Train Lane from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Lions for K Gerry Perry.

Another swap of a Hall of Famer for a kicker! It just shows how much importance teams were beginning to place on the kicking game. Lane, though 32, was far from done. He went to three more Pro Bowls with Detroit and intercepted 21 more passes (to finish with a total of 68). Perry had a nice first season in St. Louis (13 field goals, tying him for fifth in the league) but was well below average after that.

Winner: Lions.

You can see how dangerous these player-for player trades can be. Many of the deals were one-sided, sometimes ridiculously so. The McCoy-for-Alonso swap — which will be official next week, when the 2015 business year begins — might also prove regrettable for one side or the other. We’ll know better in a season or two.

Note: The famous Sonny Jurgensen/Norm Snead trade in 1964 isn’t listed because it involved two other players. The Redskins also got DB Jimmy Carr in the deal, and the Eagles got DB Claude Crabb (no relation to Jasper Lamar). Granted, it was essentially a Jurgy-for-Snead swap, and fans always looked at it that way, but Crabb had intercepted six passes a rookie and, entering his third season, could have made up for the imbalance between the quarterbacks. (He didn’t.)

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, prosportstransactions.com

After a stunning trade, LeSean will be doing his running for the Bills next season.

After a stunning trade, LeSean McCoy will be doing his running for the Bills next season.

A closer look at Reggie Bush, the receiver

As soon as the Lions released Reggie Bush, I wondered whether he might be headed to the Patriots – that is, if they can’t re-sign Shane Vereen. I wasn’t the only one who had such thoughts. Bush is the type of back who would fit well in New England’s system, a guy who can catch the ball out of the backfield and run it out of the spread formation.

The question with Bush — or one of them, anyway — is: Exactly how good is he as a receiver? Because that’s mostly what the Patriots would want him for. Others, like LeGarrette Blount, can do the heavy lifting in the run game.

What’s always surprised me about Bush is that he hasn’t been more exceptional as a pass catcher, given his speed and elusiveness. Granted, his 466 receptions in the 2000s are second among backs behind LaDainian Tomlinson’s 624. But in the yards-per-catch department he ranks 55^th at 7.49 (minimum: 150 rushes, 150 receptions).

Of the 31 backs since the 1970 merger who have caught 400 or more passes, only Curtis Martin (6.88) and Emmitt Smith (6.26) have lower per-catch averages than Bush. And Martin (3,518 rushing attempts) and Smith (4,409) expended much more energy carrying the ball from scrimmage than Reggie (1,266) has.

Here’s another way of looking at it: When Bush was in New Orleans with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, he averaged fewer yards per reception than Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas did in the same offense. The comparison:

RUNNING BACKS AS RECEIVERS IN THE SAINTS OFFENSE

Years	Running Back	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
2011-13	Darren Sproles	232	1,981	8.5	16
2007-14	Pierre Thomas	327	2,608	8.0	12
2006-10	Reggie Bush	294	2,142	7.3	12

In other words, Sproles got more out of each catch than Bush in terms of both yards and touchdowns, and Thomas squeezed out more yards and scored a tick less often (3.7 percent of the time vs. Reggie’s 4.1).

That, to me, is why Bush has had such an underwhelming career. Forget the injuries that have caused him to miss 28 games in nine seasons. He just hasn’t done all that much to separate himself from the pack. (Which is why he’s never been to the Pro Bowl — almost an accomplishment itself in these watered-down days).

Maybe, if you analyzed it play by play, you could come up with other explanations. Maybe Bush draws more attention from defenses. Or maybe more of his receptions are in the red zone, where the yards come harder. It’s just always struck me as odd that his yards-per-catch wasn’t higher.

If Vereen (9.6-yard average on 107 receptions) leaves New England, I’m sure Bill Belichick and rest of the Patriots brain trust will take all this into account when considering possible replacements. It’s not that Bush is a bad option necessarily; it’s just that, the closer you look at him, the more he seems like an ordinary one.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

You'd think, as a receiver in the open field, Reggie Bush would make people miss more.

You’d think Reggie Bush, as a receiver in the open field, would make people miss more.

Dez Bryant, historically speaking

There’s been such an explosion in receiving statistics in recent years — Calvin Johnson’s near 2,000-yard season in 2012, Randy Moss’ 23 touchdown catches in ’07, etc. — that it can be hard to keep track of them all. Take the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant, for instance. His last three seasons have been three of the best ever strung together by an NFL wideout. And yet, nobody’s called much attention to it (except maybe his agent, who’s trying to negotiate a new contract for him).

Consider: In each of those seasons, Bryant had 1,200-plus receiving yards and 12 or more touchdown grabs. You know how many other guys in pro football history have had a stretch like that? Four. And none of them, I’ll just point out, have done it four seasons in a row. So if Dez puts up similar numbers next year, he’ll be in a class by himself. Here’s the group he belongs to:

1,200 YARDS RECEIVING AND 12 TD CATCHES IN 3 CONSECUTIVE SEASONS

Years	Receiver, Team	1^st Year	2^nd Year	3^rd Year
2012-14	Dez Bryant, Cowboys	1,382/12	1,233/13	1,320/16
2000-02	Terrell Owens, 49ers	1,451/13	1,412/16	1,300/13
1999-01	Marvin Harrison, Colts	1,663/12	1,413/14	1,524/15
1993-95	Jerry Rice, 49ers	1,503/15	1,499/13	1,848/15
1989-91	Jerry Rice, 49ers	1,483/17	1,502/13	1,206/14
1964-66	Lance Alworth, Chargers (AFL)	1,235/13	1,602/14	1,383/13

Recognize anybody? Rice and Alworth, of course, are in the Hall of Fame, and Harrison and T.O. almost certainly will join them.

Rice nearly pulled it off seven years in a row (1989-91, 1,201 yards/10 touchdowns in ’92, 1993-95). He missed by just two TDs. And Alworth, let’s not forget, played when seasons were only 14 games long. (Granted, two of the seasons in question — 1964 and ’65 — were in the pre-Super Bowl AFL, which wasn’t quite up to NFL standards. But the shorter schedule balances it out, I think. He definitely belongs on the list.)

At any rate, we’re talking about a high level of production here. It’s rare enough for a wideout to have 12 TD catches three years in a row, never mind 1,200 yards. The only ones to accomplish that feat are the aforementioned five plus the Vikings’ Cris Carter (1997-99), another Canton resident. And again, nobody has done it four straight seasons, so Bryant has a shot at another first.

It’s something for the Cowboys to think about as they try to squeeze Bryant and DeMarco Murray under the salary cap. Murray is coming off a terrific season, sure, but Dez is coming off three terrific seasons — and is a year younger than DeMarco.

No one’s saying he doesn’t have some baggage. You can see his Warning Label from here. But the man delivers on the playing field — at historic levels. There’s no denying that.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Lance Alworth was the first wideout with 1,200 receiving yards and 12 TD catches three straight seasons.

Lance Alworth was the first wideout to rack up 1,200 receiving yards and 12 TD catches three straight seasons.

The passing record Lou Groza once held

When you think of Lou Groza, you think of this big guy — 6-3, 240, with a bit of a belly — booting field goals forever for the Browns. Groza happened to be a fine offensive tackle, too, protecting the blind side of Cleveland quarterbacks for more than a decade, but it’s his 264 field goals and 1,608 points that are more remembered. When he retired after the 1967 season, he held the career record in both categories. By a mile.

Browns Hall of Famer Lou Groza, doing what he did best.

Anyway, you might be amused to learn that “The Toe,” as he was called, once held an NFL passing record. What record could that possibly be, you ask? Answer: For almost five years, he was the oldest player ever to throw a pass in the league.

Groza made this little piece of history in a 27-17 loss to the Vikings in 1965 – at the age of 41 years, 279 days. Patricia Heaton’s dad, Chuck, who covered the Browns for The Plain Dealer, described it this way:

The large and somewhat stunned gathering also saw Lou Groza throw a forward pass. The Toe, who on very few occasions in the past has had to resort to such desperation maneuvers, was trying to kick a 50-yard field goal.

The pass from center bounced away from Bobby Franklin, the holder. Lou recovered and, being confronted with nothing but purple [Vikings] jerseys, tried a pass. It was intended for John Brewer but wasn’t completed. So Minnesota took over.

The next season, in a similar situation, Groza threw another pass. This one was actually completed . . . for a 7-yard loss to one of his blockers, linebacker Vince Costello. Lou was now 42 years, 256 days old. This would stand as the record until 1975, when the George Blanda – a spry 43 years, 38 days – came off the bench to quarterback the Raiders to a 31-14 win over the Steelers. (He even tossed three touchdown passes, all of them longer than minus-7 yards.)

Blanda was still chucking in 1975, his final year in the NFL. In fact, in his last regular-season game, he went 1 for 3 for 11 yards (with one interception) as Oakland beat the Chiefs, 28-20. He’s still the Oldest Guy To Throw A Pass by more than three years.

In the decades since, only four other players older than Groza have cocked their arm and let one fly. Here’s that list:

THE SIX OLDEST PLAYERS TO THROW A PASS IN THE NFL

Year Player, Team	Vs	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Age
1975 George Blanda, Raiders	Chiefs	3	1	11	0	1	5.6	48-095
1998 Steve DeBerg, Falcons	Dolphins	10	5	85	1	0	112.5	44-342
2007 Vinny Testaverde, Panthers	Jaguars	28	13	84	0	1	38.4	44-026
2000 Warren Moon, Chiefs	Chargers	31	12	130	0	1	38.4	44-008
2005 Doug Flutie, Patriots	Jets	1	1	2	0	0	79.2	43-064
1966 Lou Groza, Browns	Steelers	1	1	-7	0	0	79.2	42-256

The record Groza broke, by the way, was held by the Giants’ Charlie Conerly, who was 89 days past his 40^th birthday when he relieved Y.A. Tittle in the 1961 title game against the Packers and hit 4 of 8 passes for 54 yards. (Not that “The Toe” wasn’t capable of a performance like that, had the center and holder just botched the snap a half-dozen more times.)

Postscript: When Bob O’Donnell and I were writing The Pro Football Chronicle in the ’80s, we came across an old story about Groza in one of the Cleveland newspapers. Instead of a head shot of him, though, the paper ran a photo of his right big toe.

Bob and I thought it would be hilarious if we could include The Toe’s toe in our book, so we tried to track the photo down. Alas, it had been lost to the ages. So Bob, not easily discouraged, phoned Groza and asked if his toe would be willing to pose for us. “We’ll send a photographer to your house,” he said.

At first, Lou was up for it. “No need to go to all that trouble,” he said. “I drive right by this photography studio every day. I’ll have the picture taken there and send it to you.” But soon he began to have second thoughts, began to think it might be “undignified” for a Hall of Fame player to have his 65-year-old toe appear in a book.

If I ever run into him in the hereafter, I’m going to make another pitch to him. I still think the world would love to see Lou Groza’s big right toe, gnarly or not.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

The eternal life of a quarterback

At any other position — except maybe punter and kicker — when an NFL player hits 30, you start wondering how much longer he’s got left (or how many Pro Bowl seasons he might still have in him). But quarterbacks seem to have found the Fountain of Youth, what with all the passer-friendly rule changes and the league’s continuing effort to keep them safe.

When a QB reaches 30 these days, he’s often still on the rise — his play becoming more refined, his health no worse for the wear. Tom Brady just rallied the Patriots to a Super Bowl victory at the age of 37. The year before, Peyton Manning took the Broncos to the title game — and had one of the greatest seasons in pro football history — at the same age. And we may not have heard the last from either of them. The Patriots, remember, are still young, even if Brady isn’t (chronologically, at least).

You can’t ask for a better situation than that, not in a league that considers quarterbacks its first, second and third most important commodities. If QBs can play at a championship level well into their 30s — while everybody around them is aging more quickly — the NFL will never have a worry in the world, entertainment-wise. It might even be able to handle another round or two of expansion, which you know the owners want.

Let me show you what I mean about quarterbacks performing better as they get older. Note I didn’t say, “getting better as they get older.” It’s harder to measure that. After all, what a QB might gain over the years in terms of judgment and understanding, he might lose in arm strength and mobility. Does that make him a better player, necessarily, or just one who wins in a different way? But performance is measurable — through statistics. (And obviously, some of the improvement can be attributed to the aforementioned rule changes, which pushed the league-wide passer rating this past season to 87.1, an all-time high.)

Anyway, after crunching some numbers, I learned that not only does a quarterback’s rating tend to improve in his 30s, sometimes dramatically, he often throws more passes in his 30s than does in his 20s. The second discovery was a bit of a shock. Imagine if this was true of the average running back, receiver or pass rusher. Imagine if the NFL had across-the-board longevity like that. (Not that some the rules favoring passers don’t also help the guys doing the catching.)

Brady is a classic example. In his 20s he had a rating of 88.4 (on 3,064 pass attempts); in the 30s he has a rating of 101.5 (on 4,104 attempts) — an increase of 13.1 points. That’s tops among active quarterbacks who have thrown 1,000 or more passes on both sides of the 30 divide.

A QUARTERBACK’S 20S VS. HIS 30S (ACTIVE QBS ONLY)

Quarterback	Team(s)	20s Rate (Att)	30s Rate (Att)	+/- Pts
Tom Brady	Patriots	88.4 (3,064)	101.5 (4,104)	+13.1
Drew Brees	Chargers/Saints	89.4 (3,650)	101.2 (3,808)	+11.8
Peyton Manning	Colts/Broncos	93.5 (4,333)	101.2 (4,716)	+7.7
Tony Romo	Cowboys	95.6 (1,857)	99.2 (2,353)	+3.6
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	92.1 (3,313)	97.5 (1,641)	+5.4
Philip Rivers	Chargers	95.3 (2,902)	96.4 (1,776)	+1.1
Matt Schaub	Raiders/2 others	91.5 (1,987)	86.0 (1,204)	-5.5
Michael Vick	Falcons/2 others	75.9 (1,743)	86.0 (1,204)	+10.1
Eli Manning	Giants	80.2 (3,332)	85.7 (2,277)	+5.5
Carson Palmer	Bengals/2 others	88.4 (2,595)	84.0 (2,311)	-4.4
Matt Hasselbeck	Seahawks/3 others	84.0 (1,823)	81.4 (3,251)	-2.6

So you’ve got 11 active quarterbacks who have thrown 1000+ passes in their 30s. Eight have posted a higher rating than in their 20s, three have gone the other way. And naturally, the lower your rating in the 20s, the more room there is for improvement in later years.

It’s amazing how close Brady, Brees and Manning are in their 30s, as far as their passing efficiency goes. Just three-tenths of a point separates them. And all of their ratings, of course, are over 100. That’s mind-boggling, especially when you consider how rare a 100 rating used to be (in a single season or even a game). But that’s the direction the game is going — to take nothing way from today’s quarterbacks. QBs can play forever — and play well. They might not always be worth franchise money, but they can be far more than just functional.

Compare the above list with the one below of selected Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Some saw their rating go up in their 30s, some saw it go down. It was a very mixed bag. And again, these men are in Canton (or, in the case of Brett Favre, headed there).

HALL OF FAME QBS: THEIR 20S VS. THEIR 30S

Quarterback	Team(s)	20s Rate (Att)	30s Rate (Att)	+/- Pts
Steve Young	Bucs/49ers	81.3 (976)	101.6 (3,173)	+20.3
Joe Montana	49ers/Chiefs	92.4 (2,571)	92.1 (2,820)	-0.3
Bart Starr	Packers	74.6 (1,546)	86.2 (1,603)	+11.6
Jim Kelly	Bills	82.7 (1,742)	85.3 (3,037)	+2.6
John Elway	Broncos	73.6 (3,070)	84.5 (4,180)	+10.9
Dan Fouts	Chargers	75.5 (2,594)	84.3 (3\010)	+8.8
Dan Marino	Dolphins	88.6 (4,234)	84.1 (4,124)	-4.5
Warren Moon	Oilers/Vikings	69.6 (1,191)	83.8 (4,809)	+14.2
Brett Favre	Packers/2 others	88.8 (3,883)	83.5 (5,522)	-5.3
Sonny Jurgensen	Eagles/Redskins	79.1 (1,107)	83.3 (2,988)	+4.2
Bob Griese	Dolphins	74.0 (2,014)	81.7 (1,415)	+7.7
Len Dawson	Chiefs/2 others	85.6 (1,061)	80.9 (2,540)	-4.7
Terry Bradshaw	Steelers	62.1 (2,019)	80.4 (1,882)	+18.3
Fran Tarkenton	Vikings/Giants	81.0 (3,022)	79.8 (3,455)	-1.2
Johnny Unitas	Colts	79.4 (2,316)	78.2 (2,794)	-1.2
Troy Aikman	Cowboys	83.6 (3,068)	77.9 (1,647)	-5.7
Joe Namath	Jets/Rams	69.3 (2,605)	56.9 (1,157)	-12.6

In this group we have nine gainers and eight decliners — a totally different story. Part of the reason is that some of them played before 1978, when the NFL started outlawing defense. As a result, rule changes didn’t help them much later in their careers. The game was essentially the same (in terms of its policing, that is).

No one’s saying other factors might not have affected these quarterbacks — their supporting cast (coaches included), for instance. But it’s clear there’s never been a better time to be a QB than right now. Your star can keep shining, brightly, deep into your 30s. The Million-Dollar Question is: Who’s going to be the first QB to win a Super Bowl in his 40s? It’s bound to happen one of these days. You just know it is. (Look at how close Brett Favre came with the Vikings in 2009.)

Source: pro-football-reference.com

This is no longer the image of the NFL QB in his late 30s (the Giants' Y.A. Tittle in 1964).

This is no longer the image of the NFL quarterback in his late 30s (the Giants’ Y.A. Tittle in 1964).

DeMarco Murray’s odometer

Football folks have begun to worry about rushing attempts the way baseball people fret about pitch counts. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying these things aren’t important. It’s more a question of: How much weight do you give them?

The Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray, stiff-arming all doubters.

When evaluating the free-agent value of the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray, for instance, observers are likely to mention his 392 carries in the 2014 regular season. For one thing, it’s tied for the seventh-highest total in NFL history. For another, it isn’t particularly conducive to a back’s long-term health and productivity — especially if he’s piling postseason carries on top of it, as Murray did (44 more).

In a piece for ESPN.com, Kevin Seifert pointed to the 392 figure and added: “All six of the most recent [backs with that many attempts] fell short of 1,000 yards in the following season.” This isn’t entirely accurate. One of the six, Eric Dickerson, did rush for 1,000 yards the next season (1,288 in 12 games). And another of the six, Ricky Williams, retired after the season and didn’t return to the NFL until two years later (and only after serving a drug suspension). I’m not sure Ricky should even be part of the conversation.

Then there are Eddie George (403 carries in 2000) and Terrell Davis (392 in 1998). To me, their drop-offs weren’t the result of one workhorse season, they were the cumulative effect of years of overuse. George had 1,898 rushing attempts in his first five seasons (playoffs included) — tops in the league in that period by 147. As for Davis, he had 481 carries in 1997 and another 470 in ’98 (again, playoffs included). Those are first- and third-highest totals of all time.

My point is simply this: There are other things that should be factored into the Murray Equation. Yes, he was a busy back last season, but that hardly means his decline in imminent — or even near. With him, it’s more a matter of “How good is he?” than “How much tread does he have left on his tires?”

Consider: 70 running backs since 1960 have had more rushing attempts before their 27^th birthday than Murray (928) did. For a back at this stage of his career, he’s fairly low-mileage.

Just for fun, let’s look at the backs who’ve had the most carries before turning 27 (one final time: playoffs included) — and see how many attempts they still had in them:

MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS BEFORE 27^TH BIRTHDAY

Seasons	Running back	Team(s)	Pre-27	High	Post-27
1990-04	Emmitt Smith	Cowboys/Cardinals	2,286	451	2,472
1999-09	Edgerrin James	Colts/Cardinals	1,972	408	1,274
1993-05	Jerome Bettis	Rams/Steelers	1,893	423	1,785
1989-98	Barry Sanders	Lions	1,826	365	1,327
1995-05	Curtis Martin	Patriots/Jets	1,792	418	1,908

(Note: “High” = most carries in a season before turning 27.)

Interesting, no? Smith and Martin actually had more rushing attempts after their 27^th birthday. Bettis, meanwhile, had almost as many and it might have been the same for Sanders if he hadn’t retired at 30 (after a 1,491-yard season). At any rate, next to these guys, Murray’s workload seems pretty modest.

Note, too, that four of them had 400-carry seasons before turning 27 — but still had plenty of gas left in the tank.

Now let’s look at the backs who had the most carries after their 27^th birthday:

MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS AFTER TURNING 27

Seasons	Running back	Team(s)	Post-27	High	Pre-27
1990-04	Emmitt Smith	Cowboys/Cardinals	2,472	366	2,286
1975-87	Walter Payton	Bears	2,435	427	1,583
1971-85	John Riggins	Jets/Redskins	2,239	462	928
2000-11	Thomas Jones	Cardinals/4 others	2,064	376	739
1977-88	Tony Dorsett	Cowboys/Broncos	2,050	380	1,188
1972-84	Franco Harris	Steelers/Seahawks	1,984	374	1,365
1995-05	Curtis Martin	Patriots/Jets	1,908	408	1,792
1982-97	Marcus Allen	Raiders/Chiefs	1,871	259	1,418
1993-05	Jerome Bettis	Rams/Steelers	1,785	355	1,893
1997-08	Warrick Dunn	Bucs/Falcons	1,671	297	1,134

(Note: “High” = most carries in a season after turning 27.)

Eight of the 10 in this group had more rushing attempts before they hit 27 than Murray (978) did — in many cases a lot more. So why is everybody so concerned about DeMarco’s longevity? Sure, he had some nicks earlier in his career, but nothing major. He might have some very good years ahead, just as these backs did. Heck, Payton, Riggins and Martin still had a 400-carry season in their future.

It’s something to think about as free agency approaches. There isn’t anything ominous, necessarily, about rushing the ball 392 times in a season (436 counting the playoffs). But you certainly don’t want to do it year in and year out — and it’s doubtful Murray will, no matter what team he winds up with. Coaches these days are much more aware of human limits than they used to be.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

The Super Bowl-winning offense

Before the season I posted a chart that looked at the 21 Super Bowl-winning offenses in the Free-Agent Era (1993-present). Almost all had a Top 10 quarterback (rating-wise), which shouldn’t surprise anybody. But it was striking how many didn’t didn’t have a running back and/or receiver who ranked that high (in terms of yards).

I bring the subject up again because the 2014 Patriots fit this same model. Tom Brady ranked fifth in the NFL in passer rating, but the Pats’ leading rusher, Jonas Gray (48th!), and leading receiver, Rob Gronkowski (15th), finished quite a bit farther down the list at their positions. This made New England the eighth NFL champion in the last 13 that didn’t have a Top 10 running back or Top 10 receiver. The details:

RECENT SUPER BOWL CHAMPS WITHOUT A TOP 10 RUSHER OR TOP 10 RECEIVER

Year	Champion	QB, Rating (Rank)	Top Rusher, Yds (Rank)	Top Receiver, Yds (Rank)
2014	Patriots	Tom Brady, 97.4 (5)	Jonas Gray, 412 (48)	Rob Gronkowski, 1,124 (15)
2012	Ravens	Joe Flacco, 87.7 (14)	Ray Rice, 1,143 (11)	Anquan Boldin, 921 (27)
2009	Saints	Drew Brees, 109.6 (1)	Pierre Thomas, 793 (T24)	Marques Colston, 1,074 (18)
2008	Steelers	B.Roethlisberger, 80.1 (24)	Willie Parker, 791 (26)	Hines Ward, 1,043 (15)
2007	Giants	Eli Manning, 73.9 (25)	B. Jacobs, 1,009 (T15)	Plaxico Burress, 1,025 (21)
2005	Steelers	B.Roethlisberger, 98.6 (3)	Willie Parker, 1,202 (12)	Hines Ward, 975 (22)
2003	Patriots	Tom Brady, 85.9 (10)	Antowain Smith, 642 (30)	Deion Branch, 803 (32)
2002	Bucs	Brad Johnson, 92.9 (3)	Michael Pittman, 718 (32)	K. Johnson, 1,088 (16)

As you can see — and as I noted in August — it’s more about Spreading the Ball Around these days. Not that it isn’t nice to have a DeMarco Murray or an Antonio Brown on your team; it just isn’t necessary. Far from it, in fact.

You can win the Super Bowl without a 500-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard wide receiver, as the Patriots just demonstrated. (Julian Edelman led their wideouts with 972.) You just need contributions from a lot of people — along, of course, with quality quarterbacking, It’s something to think about as the free-agency period approaches and owners get ready to whip out their checkbooks. More doesn’t necessarily mean more.

Statistical curiosities of 2014 (Part 2)

The Broncos might have bombed out in the first round of the playoffs again, but — sorry if this sounds like a Holiday Inn Express commercial — they did have two 1,400-yard receivers. Demaryius Thomas finished with 1,619 and free-agent addition Emmanuel Sanders with 1,404, making them the fourth such tandem in NFL history. Here’s what the group looks like:

TEAMS WITH TWO 1,400-YARD RECEIVERS IN THE SAME SEASON

Year Team (W-L)	Receivers, Yards	Result
1995 Lions (10-6)	Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488	Wild card
2000 Rams (10-6)	Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471	Wild card
2005 Cardinals (5-11)	Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402	Missed playoffs
2014 Broncos (12-4)	Demaryius Thomas 1,619, Emmanuel Sanders 1,404	Won division

Also, for the first time this year, the NFL had three 1,000-yard rookie receivers. That makes eight rookie receivers with 1,000-plus yards since 2003. Why is this notable? Because there were only 12 in all the seasons before that (AFL included).

1,000-YARD ROOKIE RECEIVERS SINCE 2003

Year Receiver, Team	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
2014 Odell Beckham, Giants	91	1,305	14.3	12
2014 Mike Evans, Bucs	68	1,051	15.5	12
2014 Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers	73	1,008	13.8	9
2013 Keenan Allen, Chargers	71	1,046	14.7	8
2011 A.J. Green, Bengals	65	1,057	16.3	7
2006 Marques Colston, Saints	70	1,038	14.8	8
2004 Michael Clayton, Bucs	80	1,193	14.9	7
2003 Anquan Boldin, Cardinals	101	1,377	13.7	8

What this suggests is that quarterbacks aren’t the only players coming out of college these days who are more advanced in the passing game. Their receivers are, too — and like the QBs, are capable of making a more immediate impact in the pros.

Consider: Since 2003, there have been eight 1,000-yard rookie receivers and 15 1,000-yard rookie rushers. From 1932 to 2002 — which is as far back as statistics go — there were 12 1,000-yard rookie receivers and 46 1,000-yard rookie rushers.

In other words, where before it was much more common for a rookie to rush for 1,000 yards (an almost 4-to-1 ratio), now it’s only somewhat more common (slightly less than 2-to-1). And as time goes on, given the devaluation of the running game, the gap may continue to shrink.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

How long before the 1,000-yard rookie receiver is more common than the 1,000-yard rookie rusher?

How good was Gronk’s postseason?

Rob Gronkowski, finally healthy again, was worth a touchdown a game to the Patriots in the playoffs. That’s not an average or an approximation. He caught a TD pass against every opponent as the Pats made off with their fourth Lombardi Trophy.

A postseason trifecta like that is rare for a tight end. The only other one who’s done it Gronkowski’s way — division round, conference title game, Super Bowl — is the 49ers’ Brent Jones in 1989. Interesting parallel, don’t you think? After all, Gronk’s quarterback was Tom Brady, who was in the process of winning his fourth ring, and Jones’ quarterback was Joe Montana, who was in the process of winning his fourth ring in ’89.

Just four tight ends have had touchdown receptions in three games in a single postseason. Here’s how they compare:

ROB GRONKOWSKI, PATRIOTS, 2014

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Length
Ravens	7	108	15.4	1	5
Colts	3	28	9.3	1	5
Seahawks (SB)	6	68	12.3	1	22
Totals	16	204	12.8	3

DENNIS PITTA, RAVENS, 2012

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Length
Colts	2	27	13.5	1	20
Broncos	3	55	18.3	0	–
Patriots	5	55	11.0	1	5
49ers (SB)	4	26	6.5	1	1
Totals	14	163	11.6	3

DUSTIN KELLER, JETS, 2009

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Length
Bengals	3	99	33.0	1	45
Chargers	3	19	16.3	1	2
Colts	6	63	10.5	1	9
Totals	12	181	15.1	3

BRENT JONES, 49ERS, 1989

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Length
Vikings	3	24	8.0	1	8
Rams	4	46	11.5	1	20
Broncos (SB)	1	7	7.0	1	7
Totals	8	77	9.6	3

Gronkowski’s postseason certainly measures up to any of these. But in terms of total touchdowns, Dave Casper’s 1977 and Vernon Davis’ 2011 are still the gold standard in the playoffs, even though neither got to the Super Bowl. Their game-by-games:

DAVE CASPER, RAIDERS, 1977

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Lengths
Colts	4	70	17.5	3	8, 10, 10*
Broncos	5	71	14.2	2	7, 17
Totals	9	141	15.7	5

VERNON DAVIS, 49ERS, 2011

Opponent	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Lengths
Saints	7	180	25.7	2	49, 14*
Giants	3	112	37.3	2	73, 28
Totals	10	292	29.2	4

*game winner

Davis, amazingly, had three of the four longest touchdowns scored by these tight ends — 73, 49 and 28 yards. That explains his equally ridiculous 29.2-yards-per-catch average.

As for Casper, his game against the Colts in the ’77 playoffs — when they were still in Baltimore — was one for the ages. In addition to his three TDs, the last in the second overtime period to give the Raiders a 37-31 win, he also had a 42-yard catch late in regulation that tied it up.

That’s the famous Ghost to the Post play (Ghost being the pale-white Casper’s nickname). Watch:

Casper had a classic quote about his touchdown in OT:

The final play was K-17 and was designed for me all the way. We wanted to do something they didn’t expect. The cornerback was doing his job, protecting against the run. He was in a tough situation.

I faked inside and went outside. Any stiff could have done it. I’m glad I’m the stiff that did it.

The video:

So, yeah, Gronkowski had a terrific postseason — and unlike some of the others, he has a ring to show for it. But he didn’t go quite as wild, touchdown-wise, as Casper and Davis did, and he didn’t have a signature moment like Casper’s Ghost to the Post (or Dave’s overtime TD, for that matter). Perhaps that’s still to come. I mean, the guy’s only 25.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski beats Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright for a 22-yard touchdown in the Super Bowl.

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski beats Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright for a 22-yard TD in the Super Bowl.

PRO FOOTBALL DALY

The whole 100 yards — and sometimes the end zones, too.

Category Archives: 2000s

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