Category Archives: 2000s

Unanimous AP all-pro

The words wash by you as you wade into the story about this year’s selections: “Watt, Gronk unanimous AP all-pros.” What exactly does it mean, this Unanimous Thing? How often has it been achieved — and by whom?

Answer: For starters, it’s pretty rare, which makes sense when you stop and think about it. After all, how often can you get 50 media folk to agree on anything? In 2007, for instance, the Patriots’ Tom Brady had one of the greatest quarterbacking seasons ever: 50 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, a 117.2 passer rating and, oh yeah, a 16-0 record. But some yo-yo still felt obliged to split his vote between Brady and the Packers’ Brett Favre, who threw about half as many TD passes (28), about twice as many picks (15) and had a 95.7 rating. (He/she must have had Favre on his/her fantasy team or something.)

By my count, 15 players have been unanimous AP all-pros in the 2000s, three of them twice (Watt, Peyton Manning and LaDainian Tomlinson). So it’s happened 18 times in 15 years — roughly once a year. As you scan down the list, you’ll realize that just about every one of these guys is either in the Hall of Fame, a lock for the Hall of Fame or beginning to move strongly in that direction.

UNANIMOUS AP ALL-PROS IN THE 2000S

● 2014 (2) — Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski, Texans DE/DT J.J. Watt. Gronkowski, now fully recovered from a blown-out knee, had a typical Gronk year: 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games. (Bill Belichick held him out of the last one.) Watt had an even better season: 20.5 sacks, two defensive TDs, a safety and three TD catches on offense.

● 2013 (1) — Broncos QB Peyton Manning. At 37, Manning had a career year, breaking NFL season passing records with 55 TDs and 5,477 yards as Denver went 13-3, best in the AFC.

J.J. Watt makes another impression on a QB.

J.J. Watt makes another impression on a quarterback.

● 2012 (2) — Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, Watt. Peterson: 2,097 rushing yards (8 off Eric Dickerson’s mark of 2,105, which has stood since 1984). Watt: 20.5 sacks, 16 passes defended (more than many starting DBs).

● 2011 — Nobody.

● 2010 (1) — Patriots QB Tom Brady. There are all kinds of numbers I could throw at you, but the best one is: Brady didn’t throw an interception in the Patriots’ last 11 games (a record streak of 319 attempts that was stretched to 335 the next season).

● 2009 (1) — Titans RB Chris Johnson. Rushed for 2,006 yards, topped 100 rushing yards in the final 11 games and set a mark – which may not be broken anytime soon – with 2,509 yards from scrimmage.

● 2008 (1) — Ravens FS Ed Reed. League-leading nine interceptions and three defensive TDs, including a 107-yard INT return, the longest in NFL history.

● 2007 (2) — Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Patriots WR Randy Moss. LT wasn’t quite as sensational as he’d been the year before, but he still rushed for an NFL-high 1,474 yards, scored 18 TDs and threw for another TD. Moss, in his first season with Brady, caught a record 23 TD passes, one more than Jerry Rice totaled in 1987 (in 12 games).

● 2006 (3) — Tomlinson, Dolphins DE Jason Taylor, Broncos CB Champ Bailey. This was LT’s ridiculous 31-TD year. Enough said. Taylor: 13.5 sacks, two interception returns for scores. Bailey: 10 INTs (nobody has had more since 1981), 21 passes defended.

Antonio Gates in the open field.

Antonio Gates in the open field.

● 2005 (1) — Chargers TE Antonio Gates. The first 1,000-yard season of Gates’ great career (89 catches, 1,101 yards, 10 TDs).

● 2004 (1) — Manning, Colts. Even though he blew off the last game except for a few snaps, Peyton set season passing marks with 49 TDs and a 121.1 rating (both of which have since been broken).

● 2003 — Nobody.

● 2002 (1) — Colts WR Marvin Harrison. His 143 catches (for a league-leading 1,722 yards) is still the NFL record . . . by 14.

● 2001 (2) – Rams RB Marshall Faulk, Giants DE Michael Strahan. Faulk: 1,382 rushing yards, 2,147 yards from scrimmage, 21 TDs. Strahan: A record (with the help of Favre) 22.5 sacks.

● 2000 – Nobody.

To recap, Faulk and Strahan are already in the Hall, and the rest — with the exception, probably, of Johnson — could well be headed there. (Peterson, of course, will be an interesting case, depending on where his career goes from here.)

Conclusion: Being a unanimous AP all-pro says a lot about a player, a lot more than just: he had a really, really good year. We’re talking about the best of the best here.

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Rodgers, Romo and the shadow of Montana

As the NFL cranks up for the playoffs, it’s hard not to notice that Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo are playing quarterback about as well as it can be played. Romo’s 113.2 passer rating for the Cowboys this season is the sixth highest in history; Rodgers’ 112.2 for the Packers is ninth. They’ve had their way with almost every defense they’ve gone up against (even, in Tony’s case, the Seahawks).

The question now becomes: Can they keep playing at this ridiculous level in the postseason? Or more to the point: Can they — or anybody else, for that matter — ever do what Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

When you talk about a quarterback “playing the position about as well as it can be played,” you have to start with Joe Montana in 1989. During the regular season, he compiled a 112.4 rating, which was the record at the time. Then he actually turned it up a notch in the playoffs and posted a rating of 146.4, which is still the record in the Super Bowl era (and only 11.9 points shy of a perfect score, 158.3).

Among Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, Montana’s 1989 playoff performance is the gold standard by a sizable margin, as you can see:

TOP POSTSEASON RATINGS BY SUPER BOWL-WINNING QBS

Year Quarterback, Team G Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int Rating
1989 Joe Montana, 49ers 3 83 65 78.3 800 11 0 146.4
1986 Phil Simms, Giants 3 58 38 65.5 494 8 0 131.8
1992 Troy Aikman, Cowboys 3 89 61 68.5 795 8 0 126.4
2012 Joe Flacco, Ravens 4 126 73 57.9 1,140 11 0 117.2
1994 Steve Young, 49ers 3 87 53 60.9 623 9 0 117.2
2009 Drew Brees, Saints 3 102 72 70.6 732 8 0 117.0
1988 Joe Montana, 49ers 3 90 56 62.2 823 8 1 117.0
1982 Joe Theismann, Redskins 4 85 58 68.2 716 8 3 110.7
2010 Aaron Rodgers, Packers 4 132 90 68.2 1,094 9 2 109.8
2004 Tom Brady, Patriots 3 81 55 67.9 587 5 0 109.4
1996 Brett Favre, Packers 3 71 44 62.0 617 5 1 107.5

In the regular season and postseason combined, Montana had a rating of 119.4. That’s the record by a healthy margin, too. Here’s how the other quarterbacks in the above chart compare to him:

REGULAR SEASON AND POSTSEASON COMBINED

Year Quarterback, Team G Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int Rating
1989 Joe Montana, 49ers 16 469 336 71.6 4,321 37 8 119.4
1994 Steve Young, 49ers 19 548 377 68.8 4,592 44 10 113.5
2009 Drew Brees, Saints 18 616 435 70.6 5,120 42 11 110.8
2010 Aaron Rodgers, Packers 19 607 402 66.2 5,016 37 13 103.1
1996 Brett Favre, Packers 19 614 369 60.1 4,516 44 14 97.2
1982 Joe Theismann, Redskins 13 337 219 65.0 2,749 21 12 96.2
1992 Troy Aikman, Cowboys 19 562 363 64.6 4,240 31 14 95.4
2004 Tom Brady, Patriots 19 555 343 61.8 4,279 33 14 95.0
2012 Joe Flacco, Ravens 20 657 390 59.4 4,957 33 10 93.4
1988 Joe Montana, 49ers 17 487 294 60.4 3,804 26 11 93.3
1986 Phil Simms, Giants 19 526 297 56.5 3,981 29 22 81.6

Montana’s victory lap, if you want to call it that, really began in the ’88 playoffs. That’s when he started a streak of eight postseason games in which he had a rating of 100 or higher (three in ’88, three in ’89 and two in ’90). Check out his numbers for the 19-game stretch beginning in the ’88 postseason and running through the end of ’89. (Note: He missed three games in ’89.)

MONTANA’S STATS FROM 1988 PLAYOFFS THROUGH 1989 PLAYOFFS

G (RS/PS) Att Comp Pct Yds TD INT Rating
19 (13/6) 559 392 70.1 5,144 45 9 119.0

His ratings in those six postseason games, by the way, were 100.5, 136, 115.2, 142.5, 125.3 and 146.7 — against the best competition the NFL had to offer. How’s that for quarterbacking? And let’s not forget, the rules weren’t nearly as QB-friendly then. The league-wide passer rating in ’88 (70.6) and ’89 (73.3) was much lower than it was this year (87.1).

Montana has set the bar very high, perhaps impossibly high. Anyway, that’s what Rodgers and Romo are up against as they try to “play the position about as well as it can be played.”

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Will anybody ever play quarterback better than Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

Will anybody ever play quarterback better than the 49ers’ Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

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Oh-Oh-Odell Beckham

Here’s what’s really amazing about Odell Beckham, the Giants’ fantabulous rookie receiver: He became a phenomenon even though his team lost seven of his first eight NFL games. Now that’s hard to do — though it’s probably a little less hard if you happen to play in the media capital of the world.

With his one-handed grabs, big-play ability and week-in, week-out productivity, Beckham takes your breath away. His numbers don’t just speak for themselves, their shout: 79 catches for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 11 games. If he hadn’t missed the first month with a hamstring injury, we’d be talking about one of the greatest receiving seasons in history, not just one of the greatest by a first-year guy.

But let’s discuss that for a moment – the best seasons, that is, by rookie receivers. Earlier this week in the New York Post, Brian Lewis wrote:

No rookie receiver has ever had the kind of a start to an NFL career that Odell Beckham Jr., has, no first-year wideout has dominated defenses and back pages and highlight shows like this since Randy Moss.

I agree with the second half of that statement, but I take issue with the absolute certainty of the first half. After all, this is the league’s 95th season. Almost everything has happened before, including a rookie receiver exploding the way Beckham has

Before I go any further, check out this chart. It’ll give you an idea of where Odell’s performance falls — with a game, of course, still to play.

MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME BY A ROOKIE IN NFL/AFL HISTORY

Year Receiver, Team G Yards Avg TD
1960 Bill Groman, Oilers (AFL) 14 1,473 105.2 12
1952 Billy Howton, Packers 12 1,231 102.6 13
2014 Odell Beckham, Giants 11 1,120 101.8 11
1954 Harlon Hill, Bears 12 1,124 93.7 12
2003 Anquan Boldin, Cardinals 16 1,377 86.1 8
1998 Randy Moss, Vikings 16 1,313 82.1 17
1965 Bob Hayes, Cowboys 13 1,003 77.2 12
1961 Mike Ditka (TE), Bears 14 1,056 76.9 12
1982 Charlie Brown, Redskins 9* 690 76.7 8
1958 Jimmy Orr, Steelers 12 910 75.8 7
1996 Terry Glenn, Patriots 15 1,132 75.5 6

*9-game strike season

(I tacked on the touchdowns at the end in case you were curious.)

One of the things I love about this chart is that just about every decade is represented. There are three receivers from the ’50s, three from the ’60s, two from the ’90s and one each from the ’80s, ’00s and ’10s. Only the ’70s, when defense had the upper hand, are missing.

Another thing I love about this chart is that it’s fair. It looks at per-game average rather than gross yardage, which would skew things toward receivers who had the benefit of longer seasons. Beckham will play in “only” 12 games this year, which is how many Billy Howton, Harlon Hill and Jimmy Orr played in in the ’50s. So you can put his stats next to theirs and decide for yourself who was better. (I’m excluding Bill Groman from this discussion because the AFL in 1960 wasn’t close to being on the NFL’s level.)

Howton had six 100-yard games that season and Hill seven. Let’s compare them to Beckham’s six (so far):

        Howton 1952                          Hill 1954                         Beckham 2014

Opponent Rec-Yds-TD Opponent Rec-Yds-TD Opponent Rec-Yds-TD
Redskins 3-128-1 Lions 4-140-1 Colts 8-156-0
Rams 5-156-1 Colts 3-144-1 Seahawks 7-108-0
Lions 7-151-1 49ers 4-116-1 Cowboys 10-146-2
Lions 7-123-2 49ers 7-224-4 Titans 11-130-1
Rams 6-200-0 Browns 3-117-1 Redskins 12-143-3
49ers 8-162-2 Rams 6-109-1 Rams 8-148-2
Totals 36-920-8 Cardinals 6-117-1 Totals 56-831-8
Totals 33-967-10

You can debate until you’re blue in the face the differences between eras and what all this means. But as you can see, what Beckham is doing as a rookie isn’t exactly unprecedented. Howton cardOther receivers have “had the kind of a start to an NFL career that Odell Beckham Jr., has.” They just played so long ago that hardly anybody remembers.

Howton and Hill, too, were phenomenons. Billy, for instance, had six touchdown catches of 50 yards or longer (90, 89, 78, 69, 54, 50) plus a non-scoring grab of 76. Harlon had TDs of 76, 66, 65 and 64. They were downfield threats, just like Beckham is. The NFL just didn’t get the attention then that it does now. (Never mind an NFL Channel; there was barely an NBC.)

When Howton retired after the 1963 season, he was the all-time leader in receptions (503) and receiving yards (8,459) and ranked third receiving touchdowns (61). He simply had the misfortune of playing in Green Bay when it truly was pro football’s Siberia. (Read: Before Vince Lombardi arrived and thawed things out.)

I kid you not: The day Howton broke Don Hutson’s career receptions record (488), The Dallas Morning News mentioned it in the last paragraph of its game story. (Howton spent his last four seasons with the expansion Cowboys.) And the day the Colts’ Ray Berry broke Billy’s receptions mark, The Associated Press reported: “Berry caught five passes . . . to raise his career total [to] 506,” which was three more than “the career record held by Jim Howton.”

Harlon Hill cardJim Howton?

As for Hill, he could have wound up in Canton — why Howton isn’t there, I’ll never understand — if injuries hadn’t robbed him of his specialness. Consider: He scored 32 touchdowns in his first three seasons, a total of 36 games. Only four receivers have scored more in their first 36 games: Randy Moss (43), Jerry Rice (40), Rob Gronkowski (38) and John Jefferson (36). How’s that for company?

None of this is meant to knock Beckham down a few pegs. The kid has been an absolute revelation. It’s just meant to remind everybody that he’s not alone on that peg. As I said, the NFL has been around for a long time.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Richard Sherman: Pick of the litter

Richard Sherman, the Seahawks’ ballhawk/cornerback, intercepted another pass in Sunday night’s 35-6 win over the Cardinals. That gives him 24 in his first four seasons (with a game to go), tying him for third most since the 1970 merger. Here’s where he falls on the list:

MOST INTERCEPTIONS, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

Years Defensive back, Team Int
1977-80 Lester Hayes, Raiders 25
1981-84 Everson Walls, Cowboys 25
1981-84 Kenny Easley, Seahawks 24
2011-14 Richard Sherman, Seahawks 24
1978-81 John Harris, Seahawks 22
1976-79 Mike Haynes, Patriots 22
1994-97 Keith Lyle, Rams 22
1988-91 Erik McMillan, Jets 22
2002-05 Ed Reed, Ravens 22

Sherman’s total is even more impressive when you consider how much lower interception rates are now (largely because of all the “adjustments” the NFL has made in the rules). In Lester Hayes’ first four seasons, 5.03 percent of all passes were picked off. In Sherman’s first four, 2.71 percent have been. Big difference.

When you look at it that way, Sherman has had the best first four seasons, interception-wise, of any defensive back in the last 45 years. His 24 INTs represent 1.26 percent of all picks from 2011 to 2014:

BEST INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

Years Defensive back, Team Int League INT %
2011-14 Richard Sherman, Seahawks 24       1,899 1.26
1981-84 Everson Walls, Cowboys 25       2,162 1.16
1981-84 Kenny Easley, Seahawks 24       2,162 1.11
1994-97 Keith Lyle, Rams 22       2,007 1.10
1992-95 Darren Perry, Steelers 21       1,974 1.06
1988-91 Erik McMillan, Jets 22       2,080 1.06
2002-05 Ed Reed, Ravens 22       2,096 1.05
1977-80 Lester Hayes, Raiders 25       2,425 1.03
1991-94 Aeneas Williams, Cardinals 20       1,950 1.03
1988-91 Eric Allen, Eagles 21       2,080 1.01
1997-00 Sam Madison, Dolphins 21       2,081 1.01

It might seem like we’re splitting hairs here, but note the gap between first (Sherman) and second (Walls) — 0.1 percent — is the biggest of all. (Next biggest: .05 percent between second and third.) The gap between top and bottom, meanwhile, is .25 percent. That’s a pretty sizable separation.

In other words, receivers may not be able to separate themselves from Sherman, but Sherman sure can separate himself from other DBs.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman does this to opposing receivers, too.

Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman does this to opposing receivers, too.

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Quarterbacks: To run or not to run?

It’s nice if an NFL quarterback can move around a bit, but being able to take off and run has never been a high priority. The position has always been, first and foremost, about throwing the ball.

The game evolves, though. And it’s reasonable to wonder, with the recent influx of several mobile quarterbacks, whether the definition of The Perfect QB will eventually change, too. A decade from now, will the paradigm be more of a hybrid player, a combination passer-runner who can throw darts and also operate the read-option?

The instant success of the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson, the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick and the Redskins’ Robert Griffin III, all of whom made the playoffs in their first season as a starter, gave even more momentum to the 21st Century Quarterback idea. And last year Cam Newton, another dual threat, guided the Panthers to a 12-4 record and the NFC South title.

But in 2014 only Wilson has escaped the barbs of critics and the wrath of his fan base. Defenses have gotten better at dealing with some of the college-y stuff these quarterbacks do, and now it’s up to the QBs (and their coordinators) to adjust. Adapt or die.

The jury is very much out on whether they can . . . or even — as far as some coaches are concerned — want to. One of the problems with having a quarterback with unusual talents is that if you build a special offense for him, what happens if he gets hurt? Do you have a second QB with unusual talents who can step in, or do you have to go back to a more conventional attack? And can a team be successful switching gears like that?

You might be interested to know that the five running-est quarterbacks in modern history — I’m going by rushing yards per game — are all active, as you can see in this chart:

MOST RUSHING YARDS PER GAME BY A QB (SINCE 1945)

Years Quarterback Team(s) Yds YPG
2001-14 Michael Vick Falcons, Eagles, Jets 6,010 43.9
2011-14 Cam Newton Panthers 2,457 41.0
2012-14 Robert Griffin III Redskins 1,461 40.6
2012-14 Russell Wilson Seahawks 1,782 38.7
2011-14 Colin Kaepernick 49ers 1,513 32.2
1985-01 Randall Cunningham Eagles, Vikings, 2 others 4,928 30.6
1969-78 Bobby Douglass Bears, Chargers, 2 others 2,654 29.2
1999-09 Daunte Culpepper Vikings, Dolphins, 2 others 2,652 25.3
1985-99 Steve Young Bucs, 49ers 4,239 25.1
2006-11 Vince Young Titans, Eagles 1,459 24.3

(Minimum: 32 starts.)

Granted, these averages usually decline as the quarterbacks get older, but they’re worth noting nonetheless.

Still, there’s no getting around the fact that 12 of the 14 Super Bowls in the 2000s have been won by QBs who weren’t much of a running threat at all. Only Wilson (2013) and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (2010) have had wheels worth worrying about (or as I like to refer to them, WWWAs).

RUSHING YARDS PER GAME BY SUPER BOWL-WINNING QBS (2000S)

Years QB (Super Bowl Wins) Team Yds YPG
1999-14 Peyton Manning (1) Colts, Broncos 678 2.7
2004-14 Eli Manning (2) Giants 465 2.8
2001-14 Drew Brees (1) Chargers, Saints 684 3.4
2000-14 Tom Brady (3) Patriots 804 3.9
1994-08 Brad Johnson (1) Vikings, Redskins, 2 others 657 3.7
2008-14 Joe Flacco (1) Ravens 625 5.7
1994-07 Trent Dilfer (1) Bucs, Ravens, 3 others 853 6.6
2004-14 Ben Roethlisberger (2) Steelers 1,163 7.4
2005-14 Aaron Rodgers (1) Packers 1,817 16.8

Note: Figures don’t include today’s games.

When you scan down these charts, you can understand why some coaches look at Wilson and the other passer-runners and say, “Who needs ’em?” The ones who don’t, though, the more open-minded types like Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh, have a chance to take pro football in a new direction. This is a healthy thing, of course. Without it, offenses would still be running the single wing and punting on first down.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Colin Kaepernick leaves the Chargers behind en route to a 151-yard rushing night Saturday.

The 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick leaves the Chargers behind en route to a 151-yard rushing night Saturday.

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Slingin’ Antonio Brown

The Steelers’ Antonio Brown has done something this season that hasn’t been done in a decade — and has been accomplished by only 10 receivers in NFL history. Care to guess what it is?

Answer: He’s racked up 1,000 receiving yards and thrown a touchdown pass in the same year.

Obviously, it’s much more common for a 1,000-yard running back to throw for a TD. For one thing, backs get their hands on the ball more than wideouts do. But with the Jet Sweep so popular these days, we might begin to see more scoring passes tossed by golden-armed receivers. Let’s hope so, anyway.

Here’s the short list of wideouts Brown has joined. Note that a couple of them — Randy Moss and Marty Booker — had two of these seasons.

1,000 RECEIVING YARDS AND A TOUCHDOWN PASS IN THE SAME SEASON

Year Receiver, Team Yds TD Pass Details
2014 Antonio Brown, Steelers 1,498 3 yards to WR Lance Moore vs. Texans
2004 Drew Bennett, Titans 1,247 26 yards to WR Derrick Mason vs. Packers
2002 Randy Moss, Vikings 1,347 13 yards to WR D’Wayne Bates vs. Dolphins
2002 Marty Booker, Bears 1,189 44 yards to WR Marcus Robinson vs. Patriots
2001 Marty Booker, Bears 1,071 34 yards to WR Marcus Robinson vs. Falcons
1999 Randy Moss, Vikings 1,413 27 yards to WR Cris Carter vs. Giants
1996 Curtis Conway, Bears 1,049 33 yards to RB Raymont Harris vs. Cowboys
1995 Jerry Rice, 49ers 1,848* 41 yards to WR J.J. Stokes vs. Falcons
1983 Carlos Carson, Chiefs 1,351 48 yards to WR Henry Marshall vs. Chargers
1974 Drew Pearson, Cowboys 1,087 46 yards to WR Golden Richards vs. Giants
1962 Tommy McDonald, Eagles 1,146 10 yards to RB Timmy Brown vs. Redskins
1960 Bill Groman, Oilers (AFL) 1,473* 3 yards to E Al Wicher vs. Patriots

*led league

(Brown, by the way, leads the league in receiving yards with two games to go.)

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Steelers wideout Antonio Brown gets ready to uncork one against the Texans.

Steelers wideout Antonio Brown gets ready to show off his arm against the Texans.

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RG3 and The Noise

Statistics are hardly all-telling, but they can help quiet some of the noise surrounding a player. By “noise,” I mean the chatter that’s based more on impressions, gut feelings and personal biases than anything factual.

These days, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III is one of the league leaders in noise. Coach Jay Gruden practically held his nose the other day when he announced that Griffin would start Saturday’s game against the Eagles (after Colt McCoy had been put on injured reserve). Gruden has made no secret of his displeasure with just about everything Griffin does — from holding the ball too long in the pocket to being inattentive to the finer points of “his craft” to staying on the ground too long after a sack (which made the coach wonder whether his quarterback was too hurt to run a Real Play in the closing minutes).

Others have chimed in as well, such as Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton. One of the more curious things Scramblin’ Fran said was: “He is a terrible passer, has no accuracy.”

Griffin may not have textbook mechanics, but he somehow — miraculously — gets the ball to his target. See for yourself:

TOP 5 UNDER-25 QBS FOR COMPLETION % (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

Years Quarterback, Team Pct
2012-14 Robert Griffin, Redskins 63.66
1999-01 Daunte Culpepper, Vikings 63.33
2004-06 Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 62.40
1991-94 Brett Favre, Packers* 61.86
2008-09 Joe Flacco, Ravens 61.70

*Also threw four passes with the Falcons as a rookie.

Maybe we just misunderstood Tarkenton. Maybe what he meant was: RG3 isn’t as incredible(!) as Tiger Woods was at the age of 5. (I think we can all agree with that.)

By the way, before anybody scoffs at Griffin’s completion percentage and says, “All he does is dink and dunk,” take a look at this:

ADJUSTED YARDS PER ATTEMPT FOR UNDER-25 QBS (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

Years Quarterback, Team AYPA
1983-86 Dan Marino, Dolphins 8.04
2012-14 Robert Griffin III, Redskins 7.43
2004-06 Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 7.39
1999-01 Daunte Culpepper, Vikings 7.36
2011-13 Cam Newton, Panthers 7.25

So regardless of how long the ball is in the air, Griffin is getting good yardage out of his throws — more than any quarterback except Marino. (Note: I’m looking only at QBs since 1960. And yes, I realize that, with all the passer-friendly rule changes, these rankings are going to be tilted toward the present.) In terms of unadjusted yards per attempt, in case you’re wondering, he’s seventh at 7.55 (three spots behind Our Friend Fran, who comes in at 7.76.)

Two more things. RG3 is the least interception-prone under-25 passer ever. Doesn’t that count for something? Isn’t ball security part of being a good QB?

LOWEST INTERCEPTION % BY AN UNDER-25 QB (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

Years Quarterback, Team Att Int Pct
2012-14 Robert Griffin III, Redskins 999 20 2.00
2012-14 Andrew Luck, Colts 1,250 29 2.32
1999-01 Donovan McNabb, Eagles 1,074 25 2.33
2010-12 Sam Bradford, Rams 1,196 28 2.34
1985-88 Bernie Kosar, Browns 1,334 32 2.40

Last chart. File this one under: It Takes a Village. You can grouse about Griffin’s play all you want, but one of the biggest reasons he hasn’t won more is that his defense hasn’t exactly been the Steel Curtain.

FEWEST POINTS ALLOWED SINCE 2012

Rank Team Pts
1. Russell Wilson’s Seahawks 718
2. Colin Kaepernick’s 49ers 830
29. Robert Griffin’s Redskins 1,236

OK, I’ve made my case – not for RG3’s impending greatness but for not giving up on him like Gruden (and others) seem inclined to do. “He will never make it,” Tarkenton said. “He will be out of football. He will be in the same graveyard as JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young.”

“He” is still 24. Aren’t we being a bit hasty?

Or to put it another way: In a decade, Griffin will be four years younger than Peyton Manning is now.

Source; pro-football-reference.com

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Johnny Football’s brutal baptism

How much of a horror show was Johnny Manziel’s overhyped starting debut with the Browns? Pretty bad, to be sure — 54 net passing yards and zero points in a blowout loss to the Bengals. Still, I came up with three Hall of Famers who had a worse one, rating-wise, and various other legends and No. 1 overall picks who struggled mightily as well. That puts Manziel in the middle of this group:

HOW JOHNNY MANZIEL’S FIRST NFL START STACKS UP

Year Quarterback,Team Opponent Att Comp Yds TD Int Rating Result
1983 John Elway, Broncos Steelers 8 1 14 0 1 0.0 W, 14-10
2005 Alex Smith, 49ers Colts 23 9 74 0 4 8.5 L, 28-3
1970 Terry Bradshaw, Steelers Oilers 16 4 70 0 1 19.3 L, 19-7
1967 Bob Griese, Dolphins Chiefs 22 11 101 0 2 25.0 L, 24-0
2014 Johnny Manziel, Browns Bengals 18 10 80 0 2 27.3 L, 30-0
2009 Matt Stafford, Lions Saints 37 16 205 0 3 27.4 L, 45-27
1989 Troy Aikman, Cowboys Saints 35 17 180 0 2 40.2 L, 28-0
2004 Eli Manning, Giants Falcons 37 17 162 1 2 45.1 L, 14-10
1979 Joe Montana, 49ers Cardinals 12 5 36 0 0 49.3 L, 13-10
2012 Andrew Luck, Colts Bears 45 23 309 1 3 52.9 L, 41-21
1998 Peyton Manning, Colts Dolphins 37 21 302 1 3 58.6 L, 24-15

If you’re wondering how on earth Elway won that game — all the other QBs lost — the answer is: He sat out the second half with a bruised right elbow, and backup Steve DeBerg rallied the Broncos to victory.

As for Bradshaw, his first start wasn’t exactly well received by the Pittsburgh media. This how the Post-Gazette covered it. “I couldn’t hit the side of a building today,” Terry said. “I know I was late throwing the ball a number of times, which gave [the Oilers] a chance to cover up, but they were coming at me strong.”

Screen Shot 2014-12-15 at 1.46.58 PMP-G Bradshaw subheadNoll yanking BradshawBut do the math. Elway, Bradshaw and Griese had worse days than Manziel did, and they went on to appear in a combined 12 Super Bowls, winning eight. I’m not in any way predicting similar success for Johnny Football. Just sayin’. First impressions can be deceiving.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Le’Veon Bell breaks out

Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers’ second-year running back, was having a nice little career for himself heading into the Titans game three weeks ago. Now, though, such adjectives as “nice” and “little” no longer seem to apply. Three straight games with 200-plus yards from scrimmage will do that for you.

It’s unusual enough, after all, for a back to have two games in a row like that. Only seven others have done it in the 2000s — and no back has had three in a row since Bears Hall of Famer Walter Payton in 1977. The details:

BACKS IN THE 2000S WITH 200 YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES

Year Back, Team Opponents (Yards) Total
2014 Le’Veon Bell, Steelers Titans (222), Saints (254), Bengals (235) 711
2012 Doug Martin, Bucs Vikings (214), Raiders (272) 486
2007 Ronnie Brown, Dolphins Jets (211), Raiders (207) 418
2003 Deuce McAlister, Saints Falcons (237), Eagles (232) 469
2002 Ricky Williams, Dolphins Bills (235), Bears (216) 451
2002 Marshall Faulk, Rams Seahawks (235), Cardinals (235) 471
2000 Mike Anderson, Broncos Seahawks (209), Saints (256) 465
2000 Eddie George, Titans Bengals (214), Jaguars (209) 423

Now let’s compare Bell’s run to Payton’s. Le’Veon first:

VS. Rushing Receiving Total
Titans 33-204-1 2-18-0 35-222-1
Saints 21-95-1 8-159-0 29-254-1
Bengals 26-185-2 6-50-1 32-235-3
Totals 80-484-4 16-227-1 96-711-5

And now Walter:

VS. Rushing Receiving Total
Chiefs 33-192-3 1-29-0 34-221-3
Vikings 40-275-1 1-6-0 41-281-1
Lions 20-137-1 4-107-0 24-244-1
Totals 93-604-5 6-142-0 99-746-5

Awful close. Note that Payton set a single-game rushing record (since broken) when he went for 275 against the Vikes. But other than that . . . there isn’t much difference between them volume-

Le'Veon Bell cuts upfield.

Le’Veon Bell cuts upfield.

wise. Walter had three more touches and 35 more yards.

Note, too, that both had a 100-yard receiving game during their streak. If you’re going to pull off something like this, it helps to have some pass-catching ability.

Thanks in large measure to Payton, by the way, the Bears made the playoffs that season for the first time in 14 years (when they won their last title under George Halas). And Bell, of course, has the 8-5 Steelers pointed in the same direction. (He’s also on pace to finish with 2,368 yards from scrimmage, which would be the fifth-highest total of all time.)

At any rate, the word is out about him now — if it wasn’t before. This is one dangerous (and durable) back.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Ram-bunctious defense

Earlier in the week we were talking about the Rams posting two straight shutouts, a rare feat. Now we’re talking about them going three games without allowing a touchdown, another rare feat. Five teams have done it in the 2000s:

TEAMS IN THE 2000S THAT DIDN’T ALLOW A TD IN 3 CONSECUTIVE GAMES

Year Team (W-L) Opponents (Score) PA
2014 Rams (6-8)* Raiders (52-0), Redskins (24-0), Rams (L, 12-6) 12
2011 Dolphins (6-10)* Chiefs (31-3), Redskins (20-9), Bills (35-8) 20
2008 Dolphins (11-5) Rams (16-12), Bills (16-3), 49ers (14-9) 24
2000 Titans (13-3) Bengals (35-3), Browns (24-0), Cowboys (31-0) 3
2000 Steelers (9-7)* Jets (20-3), Bengals (15-0), Browns (22-0) 3

*missed playoffs

The thing about the Steelers’ streak is that it kept going. They extended it to five games before giving up a touchdown to the Eagles. (Where have you gone, Jeff Thomason? He was the guy who scored it.)

In all, the Steelers allowed six field goals during this stretch. And they didn’t make the playoffs! Their 9-7 record left them in the First Alternate position. In fact, three of the above teams failed to earn a postseason berth (and the two that did were one-and-done). Go figure.

The Rams have a chance to match the Steelers’ run, but it won’t be easy. They have the Giants (home) and Seahawks (away) left on their schedule, and it doesn’t look like Seattle will be in a position to mail-in the last game, not with the division title — and possibly home-field advantage in the NFC — at stake.

Still, it’s been an impressive display of defense, even if the Rams haven’t exactly faced a Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks (Derek Carr, Colt McCoy, Drew Stanton). That’s usually how it is with these streaks — hot defenses squashing less-than-quality competition (and their club being fortunate enough not to give up any return TDs, of course).

One final note: Two of these teams (2014 Rams, 2000 Titans) had Gregg Williams as their defensive coordinator. Gotta be more than just a coincidence, don’t you think?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

"That's Gregg with TWO G's."

“That’s Gregg with TWO G’s.”

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