Category Archives: 2010s

The other thing about Kirk Cousins

In Redskinsland, the talk is of losing (13 of 14, the team’s worst streak since 1963-64) and all the interceptions Kirk Cousins has been throwing — four in the embarrassing 45-14 loss to the Giants and three more in Sunday’s 30-20 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. We’ll get to the picks in a moment. First, let’s talk about something that hasn’t been getting much attention: the drop-off in Alfred Morris’ performance when Cousins is the quarterback.

My son Danny, the math whiz, crunched some numbers for me. They show a stark difference in Morris’ rushing production when RG3 is under center as opposed to Cousins.

[table width=”275px”]

In RG3’s Starts,                 In Cousins’

Games,30,9*

Attempts,556,168

Yards,2\,724,630

Average,4.90,3.75

Yards Per Game,90.8,70

[/table]

*I also included the game vs. the Jaguars in Week 2 because Kirk played more than three quarters after Griffin got hurt.

See what I mean? The yards per game, to me, aren’t as important. That can be more a reflection of winning and losing, and RG3’s 12-18 record is better than Cousins’ 2-7 (again, putting the Jacksonville game in Kirk’s column).

But yards per carry is another matter — and Morris is averaging 1.15 more per attempt with Griffin at quarterback. How do we explain this? This way: When RG3 is under center, the offense is playing 11-on-11. In other words, the defense has to account for him both as a passer and as a potential runner. That gives Morris more room to operate, and we all know how crucial space is to an offense.

The read-option is obviously part of the equation — and Griffin is far more dangerous running it than Cousins is. But beyond that, the defense simply can’t focus as much on the running back when the quarterback is as fast and elusive as Griffin. If it puts too many people on the line of scrimmage, RG3 can burn it not just with a play-action pass but with a run fake and keeper. Kirk isn’t slow by any means, but he doesn’t command quite the same respect from the defense that Robert does. (I mean, the guy has 56 career rushing yards — fewer than Griffin had on one run against the Vikings as a rookie).

Only twice in Cousins’ nine games at QB has Morris averaged more than 3.88 yards per attempt. An average like that isn’t going to make any defense blink. Or to put it another way, Morris has averaged 5 yards a carry or better 15 times in RG3’s 30 games — exactly half. With Cousins he’s done it only twice in nine games — less than a quarter.

So the question with Kirk Cousins isn’t just: What can he bring to the passing game (that Griffin doesn’t)? It’s: What does he take away from the running game? And clearly, the Redskins need more offensive balance if they ever hope to pull out of this downward spiral. They had it with RG3; with Cousins, they’re much more one-dimensional. And let’s face it, with a defense as suspect as Washington’s, it helps to have some ball control by running Morris Right, Morris Left, Morris Up the Middle — if only to keep the D off the field.

As for the interceptions, Cousins has had 13 in his last seven starts — way too many. In fact, only a dozen quarterbacks in the 2000s have had a worse seven-game stretch during a season. (Cousins’ last seven starts, of course, are across two seasons.) The worst of the worst:

MOST INTERCEPTIONS IN A 7-GAME STRETCH OF A SEASON SINCE 2000

[table width=”350px”]

Year,Quarterback\, Team,Games,INT

2009,Josh Freeman\, Bucs,10-16,16

2001,Aaron Brooks\, Saints, 10-16,16

2013,Eli Manning\, Giants,1-7,15

2009,Jay Cutler\, Bears,3-9,15

[/table]

Between the neutralization of Morris and the picks, it isn’t a pretty picture for the Cousins-led offense. Which is why Colt McCoy’s name actually came up during coach Jay Gruden’s Monday news conference. What a mess.

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DeMarco Murray and the Triple Crown

Every NFL season seems to produce a Statistical Phenomenon or two. So far in 2014, the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray is That Guy. Let’s pray to the grid god that Murray gets to finish what he’s started, because what he’s started is pretty impressive.

Two weeks ago, when I first wrote about him, it was because he’d rushed for 100 yards in each of his first four games — something that had been done only six other times since 1960. Well, now he’s rushed for 100 yards in each of his first six games. No other back has done that since ’60.

Murray also is continuing to shoulder a heavy load. Through Week 4, he was on pace for 396 rushing attempts, which would be the seventh-highest total all time. But his 29 carries Sunday in Dallas’ 30-23 road shocker over the Seahawks put him on a 424 pace. That’s eight more the record of 416, set by the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson in 2006.

In addition, Murray has had 180 touches (rushing attempts plus receptions) in his first six games. Only three backs since ’60 have had more. The Top 5:

MOST TOUCHES BY A RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST 6 GAMES SINCE 1960

[table width=”425px”]

Year,Running Back\, Team,Rush,Rec,Total

2000,Eddie George\, Titans,165,20,185

2000,Ricky Williams\, Dolphins,155,27,182

2002,Priest Holmes\, Chiefs,143,38,181

2014,DeMarco Murray\, Cowboys,159,21,180

1985,James Wilder\, Bucs,144,35,179

[/table]

Wilder, by the way, holds the mark for touches in a season: a superhuman 492 in 1984. Murray projects to 480 (an average of 30 a game). That would be the second-best total in NFL history. As I’ve said before, though, high-volume seasons like that aren’t usually conducive to long-term productivity. Dallas coach Jason Garrett needs to be mindful of the Burnout Factor.

Still, it would nice to see Murray take a run at the Triple Crown — leading the league (or tying for the lead) in rushing yards, per-carry average and rushing touchdowns. It’s a feat that’s been accomplished by just six modern backs, five of whom are in the Hall of Fame. The short list:

RUNNING BACK TRIPLE CROWNS SINCE WORLD WAR II

[table width=”425px”]

Year,Running Back\, Team,Rush Yds, Avg,TD

1998,Terrell Davis\, Broncos,    2\,008,5.1,21

1980,Earl Campbell*\, Houston Oilers,    1\,934,5.2,13

1977,Walter Payton*\, Bears,    1\,852,5.5,14

1975,O.J. Simpson*\, Bills,    1\,817,5.5,16

1967,Leroy Kelly*\, Browns,    1\,205,5.1,11

1963,Jim Brown*\, Browns,    1\,863,6.4,12

[/table]

(Brown led by a comfortable margin in each category – in rushing by 845 yards, in average by 1.4 and in TDs by 3.)

* Hall of Famer

Murray leads NFL rushers with 785 yards and six TDs, but he has some work to do on his 4.9-yard average. The No. 1 guy in that department through six games, the Ravens’ Justin Forsett, is averaging 6.4 on 64 carries.

A Triple Crown is just incredibly hard to pull off. Consider: Seven backs have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, but only one of them – Davis – won the Triple Crown. LaDainian Tomlinson couldn’t do it in a year (2006) he led the league in rushing (1,815) and scored a record 32 touchdowns, 28 on the ground (2006). Brown couldn’t do it in a year (1958) he broke the season rushing mark by 381 yards (with 1,527), ran for nearly twice as many scores as anybody else in the league (17 to the runner-up’s 9) and had a per-carry average of 5.9 (which ranked a mere fourth).

What makes it even more difficult is that quarterbacks have led the league in rushing average three of the past four seasons (Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III) and seven times in the 2000s. Let’s face it, quarterback yards are different from running back yards. For one thing, QBs have more room to roam.

Still, some running back someday will have a monster year and become the seventh member of the Triple Crown Club. And if it doesn’t happen to be Murray, he’ll have plenty of illustrious backs to keep him company.

Note: The Chargers’ Paul Lowe also had a Triple Crown in the pre-Super Bowl AFL: 1,121 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns (tie) and a 5-yard average (edging the Chiefs’ Mack Lee Hill by .03) in 1965. If you want to count that, too, be my guest. I’m inclined to exclude those years, even though the NFL record book doesn’t. The two leagues just weren’t comparable — yet.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Great moments in NFL fandom

We had an NFL first in Week 5. A Lions fan tried to discombobulate the Bills by shining a green laser pointer into the eyes of quarterback Kyle Orton and holder Colton Schmidt, but — and this might be the best part — he got caught because he made the mistake of tweeting about it (something that never happens in Mickey Spillane novels).

Now Mark Beslach will have to pay a fine for disorderly conduct, and he’s been banned from Ford Field for all eternity. Of course, “all eternity” means different things to different people. To somebody from Detroit, the Lions’ 2008 season, when they became the only team in league history to go 0-16, might qualify as “all eternity.”

Fans have been trying to insert themselves into the fray for as the NFL has been blowing up footballs. Minersville Field in Pottsville, Pa., home of the Maroons, was a particularly inhospitable place to play. Don Thompson, a guard for the Los Angeles Buccaneers in 1926, once told the Los Angeles Times, “The spectators stood on the sidelines and threw chunks of coal at us through the entire contest.”

Here’s the first known video of a fan running on the field and interrupting the game. It wasn’t just any game, either. It was the 1958 championship game between the Colts and Giants — the famed Sudden Death Game won by Baltimore, 23-17. It also wasn’t just any fan. It was a business manager for NBC News, Stan Rotkiewicz, who on Sundays would stand on the sideline and keep statistics for the network.

Impulse didn’t spur Rotkiewicz’s mad dash, though. Technical Difficulties did. Late in the game, some of the crowd had come down on the field, and somebody “behind the end zone had kicked [NBC’s] cable and unplugged America,” Mark Bowden writes in The Best Game Ever. The Colts were at the New York 8, about to push across the winning score, but fans at home had no picture on their TV screens.

So the business manager caused a brief — and necessary — delay by doing this:

By the time police escorted him off the field, technicians had identified the problem and reconnected the cable. Rotkiewicz’s heroics kept millions from missing the last three plays, capped by fullback Alan Ameche’s 1-yard touchdown run.

Then there was the Baltimore fan who ran on the field and snatched the ball during a Colts-Dolphins game in 1971. It might have been Colts linebacker Mike Curtis’ most famous forced fumble:

Ball, hat, fan — everything went flying. Any list of the NFL’s Greatest Hits has to include this one. Curtis had no qualms about it, either, no Pulverizer’s Remorse. Decades later he told The Associated Press: “We were trying to win a football game, trying to get to the playoffs, and this guy [Don Ennis] shows up on the football field. My intention was to get him out of there as quick as possible. Usually they run around for 15 or 20 minutes, and you can lose concentration and momentum.

“If somebody busts into my office uninvited, it’s trespassing. Just because it’s a stadium, that’s no different.”

Can’t fault that logic.

Finally, there was this episode in Denver in 1965, one of my personal favorites:

Fan fined for throwing ice cubes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That’s right, a Broncos fan was fined $50 for throwing ice cubes at the visiting Chiefs.

From Ice Cube Man to Laser Guy. What a glorious tradition.

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The best and worst of kicking

On one side Sunday, you had the Bills’ Dan Carpenter booming a 58-yard field goal with four seconds left to give his team a come-from-behind 17-14 victory. On the other, you had the Lions’ Alex Henery missing all three of his boots — none shorter than 44 yards — and losing his job because of it.

That, friends, is all you need to know about the kicking profession in the 2000s. The NFL has kickers these days capable of knocking through a game-winner from 58 yards or longer, if need be. But the bar for them has been raised so high that missing more than a handful of boots a season — never mind three in an afternoon — is likely to put them on the unemployment line. They’re the victims of their own near-perfection.

Granted, Henery has had a rough go of it this year. In his two games for Detroit, he was 1 for 5 on field goal tries, a success rate that might have raised eyebrows even in the ’50s. But he also has a track record, and it’s pretty good. In his three previous NFL seasons, all with the Eagles, he converted 86 percent of his attempts. But now he’s gone because, well, that’s just the way it is in pro football.

As Lions coach Jim Caldwell put it: “There’s somebody out there for us that’ll do the job for us. We just got to see if we can track him down quickly.”

Translation: No biggie. We’ll just hold a tryout, open up another box of 86-percent kickers and see who performs best. (It turned out to be Matt Prater, the former Bronco.)

NFL soccer-stylers have become so accurate, even from great distances, that last year they were successful on 86.5 percent of their field goal tries (which made Henery, at 82.1, below average). There even have been kickers, two of them, who have gone through an entire season without missing. And, of course, Tom Dempsey’s 63-yarder, which had stood as the record since 1970, was finally topped  by Prater, who booted a 64-yarder in Denver’s thin air last December.

The field goal is becoming almost as automatic as the extra point. So it’s easy to forget, with all these footballs tumbling through the uprights, that, at late as the ’60s, it was a very hit-or-miss proposition. And earlier than that, it was more miss than hit.

Let’s pay a visit to 1939 for a moment, to a game between the Redskins and Pittsburgh Pirates (they weren’t the Steelers yet). The Redskins won easily, 44-14, but they also missed five PATs. The Associated Press’ account read like this:

“Jim German ran off right tackle to a touchdown. Washington missed the kick. . . . [Andy] Farkas knifed through for the score. His kick was blocked by Sam Boyd. . . . Frank Filchock stood in the end zone, passed to Farkas on the 4-yard stripe, and Andy galloped 96 yards for a touchdown — a total gain of 99 yards. Turk Edwards’ kick was not good. . . . [Dick] Todd . . . raced 60 yards for another touchdown. Bob Masterson’s kick was not good. . . . Ed Justice went around left end . . . for the final Redskin[s] touchdown. [Bo] Russell missed the kick.”

This is obviously an extreme example of what I’m talking about. The Redskins were so far ahead that day that they started goofing around and letting everybody kick. (Russell and Masterson were their main guys.) But it just shows how casual teams could be about kicking and how inexact a science it was — even though PATs were 10 yards shorter because the goal posts were on the goal line.

Pittsburgh’s kicker, Armand Niccolai, was one of the better ones in the league — so good that, after he retired following the 1941 season, the team talked him into coming back for one more year. Since he’d already taken a coaching and teaching job at a local high school and couldn’t attend the Steelers’ practices, he just showed up for the games.

“He will not even don pads,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported, “but will be used exclusively as a placekicker.”

No practices and no pads! What a sweet deal. Alas, he made just 2 of 14 field-goal attempts that year and decided, wisely, to retire for good.

Niccolai’s final season is one of the worst of all time by a kicker. His competition:

WORST SEASONS BY KICKERS (10 OR MORE FGA)

[table width=”350px”]

Year,Kicker\, Team,Made,Att,%

1965,Bob Timberlake\, Giants,      1,15,6.7

1955,Art Michalik\, Steelers,      1,12,8.3

1939,Clarke Hinkle\, Packers,      1,10,10

1963,Bob Jencks\, Bears,      1,10,10

1952,Joe Geri\, Cardinals,      2,18,11.1

1942,Armand Niccolai\, Steelers,      2,14,14.3

1963,Jack  Spikes\, Chiefs,      2,13,15.4

1950,Ted Fritsch\, Packers,      3,17,17.6

[/table]

All of them, by the way, kicked in the Old Style, with their toes rather than their instep. By the ’70s, though, almost every club had a soccer-styler, and success rates started going up . . . and up . . . and up. It’s just a more reliable way to boot the ball.

Still, while you’re snickering at these percentages, keep in mind: Many of these guys played another position — back when rosters were smaller — in addition to handling the kicking. That certainly raised the margin for error. (Sonny Jurgensen once told me he never had receiver Bobby Walston run a deep route on third down when the Eagles were in field goal position because he didn’t want Walston to be tired if he was needed to kick.)

Just out of curiosity, I thought I’d find out which kickers have missed the most kicks — field goals or extra points — in a season. There are some interesting names on it, including two Hall of Famers.

MOST MISSED KICKS IN A SEASON (FG AND PAT)

[table width=”450px”]

Year,Kicker\, Team,FG,PAT,Total

1964,Paul Hornung*\, Packers,12-38,41-43,28

1961,John Aveni\, Redskins,5-28,21-23,25

1976,Jan Stenerud*\, Chiefs,21-38,27-33,23

1963,Lou Michaels\, Steelers, 21-41,32-35,23

1967,Bruce Gossett\, Rams,20-43,48-48,23

1969,Tom Dempsey\, Saints,22-41,33-35,21

1969,Roy Gerela\, Oilers (AFL),19-40,29-29,21

1969,Gino Cappelletti\, Patriots (AFL),14-34,26-27,21

1966,Bruce Gossett\, Rams,28-49,29-29,21

1963,Jerry Kramer\, Packers,16-34,43-46,21

1963,Tommy Davis\,49ers,10-31,24-24,21

1960,Larry Barnes\, Raiders (AFL),6-25,37-39,21

[/table]

*Hall of Famer

If you’ve ever wondered why Vince Lombardi’s Packers didn’t win the title in 1963 and ’64 — after going back to back in ’61 and ’62 (and winning three more from 1965 to ’67) — you can start with kicking. Kramer and Hornung missed 44 field goal tries in those seasons, and the Golden Boy’s 26 misses in ’64 are an NFL record that probably will last forever. After serving a one-year suspension in ’63 for betting on games, Paul simply lost it as a kicker.

It’s also worth noting that the kicker who has missed the most field goal attempts in a game since 1960 — the Cardinals’ Jim Bakken, six, vs. the Falcons in ’66 — turned around the next season and booted seven in a game, a mark that wasn’t broken for 40 years.

That’s what was so ironic about the Bills-Lions game. Henery got fired for going 0 for 3, right? Guess who the last kicker to have an 0-for-4 day was.

Carpenter, Buffalo’s hero, in 2010.

So maybe this isn’t the last we’ve heard of Alex Henery.

Armand Niccolai clothing ad

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Passing for a pile of yards — and winning!

Whoever coined the phrase “statistics are for losers” might have had the 400-yard passing game in mind. At first glance, it seems like a significant achievement, one of those My Greatest Day in Football deals. That was certainly the case in the more defense-oriented ’70s, when there were only five 400-yard performances in the entire decade.

But on closer inspection you realize that, hey, a lot of these quarterbacks lost the game. (Exhibit A: the Cowboys’ Tony Romo, who went for 506 last October against the Broncos in a 51-48 defeat.) Indeed, from 1970 — the year the NFL and AFL merged — through 2012, most of these 400-yard passers lost the game. Their record was 115-118-2 (playoffs included). Here’s the breakdown:

RECORD OF QUARTERBACKS WHO THREW FOR 400 YARDS IN A GAME

[table width=“250px”]

Years,W,L,T,Pct

1970s,3,2,0,.600

1980s,37,32,1,.536

1990s,28,17,0,.622

2000s,33,34,1,.493

’10-12,14,33,0,.298

Totals,115,118,2,.494

[/table]

The line for the 2010-to-’12 period, with its woeful winning percentage (.298), really stands out. It suggests there are more “empty” passing yards these days — that is, yards that don’t necessarily lead to victories — than ever before. And that makes sense, given all the rule changes favoring the quarterback, his receivers and even his blockers. Let’s face it, if it were this easy to throw the ball in the ’30s and ’40s, Sammy Baugh’s name would come up in conversation much more regularly.

But something interesting has happened the past two years: Quarterbacks who have passed for 400-plus yards have started winning more. When Peyton Manning racked up 479 yards Sunday in the Broncos’ 41-20 battering of the previously perfect Cardinals, it raised the record of 400-yard QBs since the start of 2013 to 18-11 (.621).

Suddenly, a 400-yard game isn’t, as often as not, just a nice consolation prize. Suddenly it isn’t merely the result of a quarterback having to take to the air because his team was desperately behind. Teams are getting ahead by passing, staying ahead by passing and closing out games by passing — as Manning did in Week 5.

Consider: Leading by 21 with 3:58 left — and with Arizona down to its No. 3 QB because of injuries — Peyton began a series from the Denver 32 with . . . a 13-yard completion to Demaryius Thomas. (Granted, he wanted Thomas to break Shannon Sharpe’s club record of 214 receiving yards in a game — and that catch put Demaryius over the top with 226 — but still . . . . Times sure have changed.)

Then, too, perhaps quarterbacks are winning more of these 400-yard passing games because they’re getting more practice at it. As you may have noticed in the above chart, the number of them has increased dramatically in this decade. There were 12 400-yard games in 2010, 20 in 2011, 15 in 2012 and 26 last season. Those are four of the six highest totals in league history. We’re not even halfway through the ’10s, and already there have been 76 400-yard passing games. That’s more than the ’70s and ’80s combined (75) — and six more than any other decade, for that matter (next most: the ’80s with 70).

Of course, there’s always the possibility the pendulum will swing back again — as it’s been known to do. In the first five years of the 2000s, for instance, 400-yard passers were 23-15-1; in the next eight seasons they were 24-52. This latest blip just happened to catch my attention. When 400-yard passers win 16 games in 2013 alone, twice as many as in any previous year, you might call it Statistically Noteworthy.

Finally, in case you’re curious:

HOW ACTIVE QUARTERBACKS HAVE FARED WHEN THROWING FOR 400 YARDS

[table width=“275px”]

Quarterback\, Team(s),W-L,Pct

Tom Brady\, Patriots,5-1,.833

Peyton Manning\, Colts/Broncos,13-3,.813

Aaron Rodgers\, Packers,3-1,.750

Drew Brees\, Saints,6-7,.462

Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,2-3,.400

Eli Manning\, Giants,2-3,.400

Philip Rivers\, Chargers,2-4,.333

Tony Romo\, Cowboys,0-5,.000

[/table]

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The latest Running Back from Nowhere

Once again Sunday, NFL fans watched slack-jawed as another Mystery Running Back darted and dashed all over the field. This time it was Branden Oliver, the Chargers’ undrafted rookie, who amazed the masses, racking up 114 yards rushing, 68 receiving and one touchdown — in just his third game as a pro — as San Diego routed the Jets 31-0.

This is becoming almost an annual event now, pro football’s version of Punxsutawney Phil emerging from his hole to forecast the weather. Oliver’s emergence, of course, just reminds everybody that scouting is a woefully inexact science, especially when it comes to running backs.

We know this because good ones go unclaimed in the draft all the time. Indeed, there have been 17 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the 2000s by backs who weren’t selected. Practically every year, it seems, an overlooked runner makes personnel departments cringe by leading the NFL in rushing, yards from scrimmage, touchdowns or otherwise distinguishing himself. Check out this list:

THE 9 UNDRAFTED BACKS IN THE 2000S WHO HAVE BEEN 1,000-YARD RUSHERS

[table width=”500px”]

Running back\, Team,Best Year,Att,Yds,Avg,TD

Arian Foster\, Texans,2010,327,1\,616,4.9,16

Priest Holmes\, Chiefs,2002,313,1\,615,5.2,21

Willie Parker\, Steelers,2006,337,1\,494,4.3,13

Ryan Grant\, Packers,2009,282,1\,253,4.4,11

James Allen\, Bears,2000,290,1\,120,3.9,2

Dominic Rhodes\, Colts,2001,233,1\,104,4.7,9

BenJarvus Green-Ellis\, Bengals,2012,278,1\,094,3.9,6

Fred Jackson\, Bills,2009,237,1\,062,4.5,2

LeGarrette Blount\, Bucs,2010,201,1\,007,5.0,6

[/table]

Note: League leaders in bold face. Foster (2,220) and Holmes (2,287) also led the league in yards from scrimmage.

It’s not just these guys, either. It’s all the other guys, the ones who were drafted as afterthoughts in the late rounds. There are plenty of those, too. Such as:

TOP LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS IN THE 2000S

[table width=”500px”]

Running back\ Team,Round,Best Year,Att,Yds,Avg,TD

Michael Turner\, Falcons,5th,2008,376,1\,699,4.5,17

Alfred Morris\, Redskins,6th,2012,335,1\,613,4.8,13

Mike Anderson\, Broncos,6th,2000,297,1\,487,5.0,15

Ahmad Bradshaw\, Giants,7th,2010,276,1\,235,4.5,8

Chester Taylor\, Vikings,6th,2006,303,1\,216,4.0,6

[/table]

Oliver, built along the lines of the Eagles’ Darren Sproles at 5-foot-7, 201 pounds, came out of the same University of Buffalo program that produced James Starks. Starks, you may recall, was one of the nicer stories of 2010. After being drafted in the sixth round by the Packers and spending most of the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, he pulled a Punxsutawney Phil in the playoffs and rushed for 315 yards to help Green Bay win the Super Bowl. It’s the third-highest rushing total by a rookie in the postseason since 1960.

There’s no telling what lies ahead for Oliver. Sunday could be the highlight of his career or it could lead to even better things. With Donald Brown now questionable with a concussion, Ryan Matthews (knee) still out and Danny Woodhead (broken fibula) on injured reserve, there’s plenty of opportunity for the rookie.

But if it is his one, brief, shining moment, it was an awfully good one. His 182 yards from scrimmage are the third most by a running back this season (and include a 50-yard reception).

But getting back to our previous subject — why are so many good backs drafted so low (or not at all)? — it’s interesting to compare the Top 5 rushers this season with the Top 5 passers in terms of what round they went in.

CURRENT TOP 5 RUSHERS

[table width=”350px”]

Yds,Running Back\, Team,Round (Pick)

670,DeMarco Murray\, Cowboys,3rd (71)

460,Le’Veon Bell\, Steelers,2nd (48)

404,Arian Foster\, Texans,UFA

396,Rashad Jennings\, Giants,7th (250)

365,Frank Gore\, 49ers,3rd (65)

[/table]

CURRENT TOP 5 IN PASSER RATING

[table width=”350px”]

Rating, Quarterback\, Team,Round (Pick)

116.3,Philip Rivers\, Chargers,1st (4)

114.8,Aaron Rodgers\, Packers,1st (24)

112.9,Russell Wilson\, Seahawks,3rd (75)

109.0,Peyton Manning\, Broncos,1st (1)

100.3,Andy Dalton\, Bengals,2nd (35)

[/table]

Huge contrast, no? On the quarterback side, you’ve got three No. 1s (two of them very high), a near No. 1 and a No. 3. And on the running back side, you’ve got a second-rounder, two third-rounders, a seventh-rounder and an undrafted free agent.

You hear all the time that the hardest position evaluate is quarterback. Well, on the basis of this, running backs may be even harder to get a read on.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Gronk vs. the greats

Rob Gronkowski scored another touchdown Sunday night in the Patriots’ 43-16 pasting of the previously unbeaten Bengals. That’s what Gronkowski does — at a rate never seen before by a tight end (and by few other receivers in NFL history). His latest, a 16-yarder over the middle from Tom Brady, was his 46th scoring catch in 56 games. Do the math, and it comes out to .82 TDs per game. Wow.

Only four receivers — all wideouts — have had more scoring receptions in their first 56 games. Their names should be pretty recognizable. Three are in the Hall of Fame, and the other, I’ve got to believe, will make it when he’s eligible.

MOST TOUCHDOWNS CATCHES, FIRST 56 GAMES

[table width=“250px”]

Years, Receiver\,Team,TD

1962-66,Lance Alworth*\, Chargers (AFL),53

1985-88,Jerry Rice*\, 49ers,50

1965-69,Bob Hayes*\, Cowboys,47

1998-01,Randy Moss\, Vikings,47

2010-14,Rob Gronkowski\, Patriots,46

1957-61,Tommy McDonald*\, Eagles,42

[/table]

*Hall of Famer

It’s impressive enough that a tight end is keeping company with some of the greatest deep threats of all time. You get an even greater sense of the Magnitude of Gronk, though, when you compare him to Hall of Famers who played his position. (I threw in a few more who figure to reach Canton eventually — plus Jerry Smith, who held the TD record for tight ends for years and should never be left out of these conversations.)

TD CATCHES BY NOTABLE TIGHT ENDS, FIRST 56 GAMES

[table width= “250px”]

Years,Tight End\, Team,TD

2010-14,Rob Gronkowski\, Patriots,46

2010-13,Jimmy Graham\, Saints,35

1961-64,Mike Ditka*\, Bears,30

2003-06,Antonio Gates\, Chargers,30

1979-83,Kellen Winslow*\, Chargers,29

1965-69,Jerry Smith\, Redskins,27

1963-66,John Mackey*\, Colts,25

1974-78,Dave Casper*\, Raiders,20

1978-81,Ozzie Newsome*\, Browns,19

1997-00,Tony Gonzalez\, Chiefs,19

1968-72,Charlie Sanders*\, Lions,15

2003-06,Jason Witten\, Cowboys,14

1963-66,Jackie Smith*\, Cardinals,11

1990-93,Shannon Sharpe*\, Broncos,   7

[/table]

*Hall of Famer

Sharpe, who finished with 62 touchdown receptions (a record since broken), is a reminder that some players, even future stars, take a while to establish themselves. That wasn’t the case with Gronkowski, of course. In just his ninth game he caught three TD passes against the Steelers and was off to immortality.

That is, if he can stay out of the operating room for a spell. He’s had a rough go if it of late with injuries, but he looked like the Gronk of Old on Sunday night. The Gronk of Old was a wonder to behold.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The hazards of being a 100-catch receiver

Calvin Johnson is hurt. Again. It’s his ankle this time. Andre Johnson, I see, is also questionable this week with an ankle. And Wes Welker, of course, is a high hit away from another concussion, one that might end his career.

Yes, players get hurt in football. And yes, all these receivers have some mileage on them — a collective 31 seasons and 2,389 receptions. But there’s this to consider, too: The Lions’ Johnson caught 122 passes two years ago, tying him for third most all time, and the Texans’ Johnson and Broncos’ Welker each have had five 100-catch seasons, as many as any receiver in NFL history. We’re talking high-volume wideouts. Really high-volume wideouts.

There’s a price you pay when you’re that kind of player, when you put yourself in harm’s way that often. The receivers of yesteryear, with the exception of a few, weren’t nearly as exposed. Seasons were shorter, for one thing, and the running game was much more prominent. In 1960, when the AFL came into being and began changing the equation with its wide-open play, the record for receptions in a season was 84, by Rams Hall of Famer Tom Fears. At that point, only 11 NFL receivers (a total of 16 times) had caught as many as 60 passes in a season. Sixty! Now we have wideouts who are doubling that figure — and then some.

Still, it’s just in the last 20 years that the 100-reception season has become commonplace. Even when the schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978, only one receiver in the next decade had 100 grabs: the Redskins’ Art Monk in ’84 (a record 106). But then there were eight 100-catch guys in ’95, led by the Lions’ Herman Moore with 123 (another record), and that was the tipping point. Last year, five wideouts had 100 or more; the year before, six did. Yawn.

SEASONS WITH THE MOST 100-CATCH RECEIVERS*

[table width=“100px”]

Year,No.

1995,8

2012,6

2009,6

2007,6

2001,6

2013,5

2002,5

[/table]

*tight ends included

(Note: Through 1994, there were 10 100-catch seasons in all of NFL-AFL history.)

The receivers aren’t yawning, though. They’re too busy picking themselves off the ground, checking to make sure they aren’t missing any body parts and telling the trainer how many fingers he’s holding up. Think about it: In Calvin Johnson’s 122-reception season, he was targeted 204 times. That means there were 82 other occasions, aside from his catches, when he had a chance to be hit. No wonder his knee was bothering him last year. He had more targets in 2012 than the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy had rushing attempts (200 in 12 games).

Speaking running backs, for the longest time coaches seemed to be conducting a laboratory experiment with them: How much can the human body endure? (See James Wilder’s 492-touch exercise in excess with the 1984 Bucs.) But in recent seasons they’ve stopped putting so much of the load on one back, opting instead for a by-committee approach. This might not be as good for the back’s numbers, but it’s probably better for his long-term health. McCoy’s 314 carries last year, for instance, were the fewest by a league leader since 1990 (and the second-fewest in a non-strike season since the advent of the 16-game schedule).

Further evidence: Only once in this decade has a back had as many as 350 rushing attempts in season (Arian Foster, 2012 Texans, 351). In the first four years of the previous decade, a back reached that level 10 times. And you can’t just attribute it to teams passing more, because the number of rushing attempts per team in 2000 (441.2, on average) was pretty comparable to last year (433.5).

Maybe it’s time for coaches to come to the same conclusion about receivers: that perhaps there are limits, that it might not be the greatest idea for a wideout — many of whom aren’t exactly the biggest players on the field — to catch as many passes as some of today’s wideouts are catching. Never mind whether or not it might shorten a guy’s career. How about the possibility it might shorten his life — or at the very least, affect the quality of his life in the not-too-distant future?

Let’s face it, pro football is a demolition derby — vroom, vroom, crash, crash. And teams have always looked at players as very disposable commodities. When one breaks, you move on to the next name on the depth chart. But maybe, with a little restraint, they don’t have to break quite so often.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Coaching hires in the 2000s: the sequel

Fear of Information Overload yesterday caused me to hold back some of the data I’d gathered for my post on NFL coaching hires in the 2000s. Believe it or not, there are a few other things I’d like to share — if I haven’t worn you out on the subject.

The first one I’ve already touched on, but I want to go into it in greater depth: the increasing number of coaches who never played in the NFL or AFL. More and more, it’s becoming a game of Career Coaches, guys who might have been college players but, as soon as they were done, focused on climbing the coaching ladder.

The most extreme example is Todd Haley, the son of a former NFL cornerback and personnel man, who played golf in college before his father, then with the Jets, brought him into the family business as a scouting-department assistant. Todd, of course, later served as the Chiefs’ coach for nearly three seasons (2009-2011) and is now the Steelers’ offensive coordinator.

In the old days, there were no erstwhile college golfers holding down NFL head-coaching jobs. There were only ex-pro players and, occasionally, men who had coached on the college level. As late as the ’50s and even into the ’60s, it wasn’t unheard of for an active player to also be an assistant coach (e.g. Tom Landry with the Giants). Heck, in 1961, just months after he’d led the Eagles to their last championship, Hall of Fame quarterback Norm Van Brocklin was pacing the sideline as the coach of the expansion Vikings.

You don’t see that sort of thing anymore. Maybe it’s because the coach’s life, with its long hours and year-to-year uncertainty, has limited appeal to today’s players. Or maybe it’s because players, if they play six, eight, 10 years or longer in the league, feel they’re too far behind the Career Coaches, have too much ground to make up, to have a realistic shot at landing good coaching jobs. So they go into business, where their name recognition can help them, or perhaps they end up in the media, talking about the game instead of teaching it.

There are all kinds of reasons, no doubt, why the situation has developed the way it has. But the numbers are inescapable: In 1970, the first season after the AFL-NFL merger, 16 of the 26 coaches in the league were former players; this season, only six of 32 are (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose three NFL games during the 1987 strike were of the replacement variety).

The circle of life — or what used to be the circle of life in pro football — has been broken. It’s no longer, for those who might desire it: playing career, coaching career, possibly head coaching career (either pro or college). It’s now playing career (coached mostly by Career Coaches) followed Something Else (because the Career Coaches have gotten too much of a jump). The 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher, the Titans’ Ken Whisenhunt, the Panthers’ Ron Rivera, the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett — erstwhile NFLers all — are rare exceptions these days. And in the years to come, the exceptions figure to be even rarer. That, at least, has been the pattern over the last 40-odd years.

Check out the difference between the first 24 Super Bowls (1966-89 seasons) and the second 24 (1990-2013). After Super Bowl I, which featured Career Coaches Vince Lombardi (Packers) and Hank Stram (Chiefs), the next 23 had at least one coach, and sometimes two, who were former NFL or AFL players. The rundown:

Former NFL/AFL Players Who Coached a Team to the Super Bowl, 1966-89

[table width=”450px”]

SB,Coach\, Team,Opponent,Result

II,John Rauch\, Raiders,Packers,L\, 33-14

III,Don Shula\, Colts,Jets,L\, 16-7

IV,Bud Grant\, Vikings,Chiefs,L\, 24-7

V,Don McCaffrey\, Colts,Cowboys,W\, 16-13

V,Tom Landry\, Cowboys, Colts,L\, 16-13

VI,Tom Landry\, Cowboys,Dolphins,W\, 24-3

VI,Don Shula\, Dolphins,Cowboys,L\, 24-3

VII,Don Shula\, Dolphins,Redskins,W\, 14-7

VIII,Don Shula\, Dolphins,Vikings,W\, 24-7

VIII,Bud Grant\, Vikings,Dolphins,L\, 24-7

IX,Chuck Noll\, Steelers,Vikings,W\, 16-6

IX,Bud Grant\, Vikings, Steelers,L\, 16-6

X,Chuck Noll\, Steelers,Cowboys,W\, 21-17

X,Tom Landry\, Cowboys,Steelers,L\, 21-17

XI,Bud Grant\, Vikings,Raiders,L\, 32-14

XII,Tom Landry\, Cowboys,Broncos,W\, 27-10

XIII,Chuck Noll\, Steelers,Cowboys,W\, 35-31

XIII,Tom Landry\, Cowboys,Steelers,L\, 35-31

XIV,Chuck Noll\, Steelers,Rams,W\, 31-19

XV,Tom Flores\, Raiders,Eagles,W\, 27-10

XVI,Forrest Gregg\, Bengals,49ers,L\, 26-21

XVII,Don Shula\, Dolphins,Redskins,L\, 27-17

XVIII,Tom Flores\, Raiders,Redskins,W\, 38-9

XIX,Don Shula\, Dolphins,49ers,L\, 38-16

XX,Mike Ditka\, Bears,Patriots,W\, 46-10

XX,Raymond Berry\, Patriots,Bears,L\, 46-10

XXI,Dan Reeves\, Broncos,Giants,L\, 39-20

XXII,Dan Reeves\, Broncos,Redskins,L\, 42-10

XXIII,Sam Wyche\, Bengals,49ers,L\, 20-16

XIV,Dan Reeves\, Broncos,49ers,L\, 55-10

[/table]

Summary of the first 24 Super Bowls:

● 23 had at least one coach who was a former NFL/AFL player (95.8%).

● 7 had two coaches who were former players (29.2%).

● Super Bowl XX (Ditka-Berry) is the last one that had two coaches who were former players.

● 12 former players coached teams to the Super Bowl:

[table width=”150px”]

Coach,W-L

Noll,4-0

Shula,2-4

Landry,2-3

Grant,0-4

Reeves*,0-3

Flores,2-0

McCafferty,1-0

Ditka,1-0

Rauch,0-1

Gregg,0-1

Berry,0-1

Wyche,0-1

[/table]

*Had a fourth appearance (and loss) with the 1998 Falcons.

● 12-18 combined record (.400), 30 of 48 berths (62.5%).

● 6 former players won (Noll, Shula, Landry, Flores, McCafferty, Ditka).

On to the second half of Super Bowl history . . .

Former NFL/AFL Players Who Coached a Team to the Super Bowl, 1990-2013

[table width=”450px”]

SB,Coach\, Team,Opponent,Result

XXX,Bill Cowher\, Steelers,Cowboys,L\, 27-17

XXXIII,Dan Reeves\, Falcons,Broncos,L\, 34-19

XXXIV,Jeff Fisher\, Titans,Rams,L\, 23-16

XL,Bill Cowher\, Steelers,Seahawks,W\, 21-10

XLI,Tony Dungy\, Colts,Bears,W\, 29-17

XLIII,Ken Whisenhunt\, Cardinals,Steelers,L\, 27-23

XLVII,Jim Harbaugh\, 49ers,Ravens,L\, 34-31

[/table]

Summary of the last 24 Super Bowls:

● 7 had a coach who was a former player (29.2%).

● 0 had two coaches who were former players (0%).

● 6 former players coached teams to the Super Bowl:

[table width=”150px”]

Coach,W-L

Cowher,1-1

Dungy,1-0

Reeves,0-1

Fisher,0-1

Whisenhunt,0-1

Harbaugh,0-1

[/table]

● 2-5 combined record (.286); 7 of 48 berths (14.6%).

● 2 former players won (Cowher, Dungy).

Total for the 48 Super Bowls:

● 37 of 96 berths (38.5%).

● 14-23 combined record (.378).

● 6 former players won one of the first 20 Super Bowls (McCafferty, Landry, Shula, Noll, Flores, Ditka).

● 2 former players have won one of the last 28 Super Bowls (Cowher, Dungy).

You can see the trend, too, in the following list:

Former NFL/AFL Players Hired as Head Coaches in the 2000s

● 2000 (1 of 7 vacancies) — Jim Haslett/Saints.

● 2001 (3 of 8) — Marty Schottenheimer/Redskins, Dick LeBeau/Bengals, Herman Edwards/Jets.

● 2002 (4 of 8) — Steve Spurrier/Redskins, Tony Dungy/Colts, Marty Schottenheimer/Chargers, Mike Tice/Vikings.

● 2003 (1 of 5) — Jack Del Rio/Jaguars.

● 2004 (1 of 7) — Mike Mularkey/Bills.

● 2005 (0 of 3) — None.

● 2006 (4 of 10) — Herman Edwards/Chiefs, Art Shell/Raiders, Gary Kubiak/Texans, Jauron/Bills.

● 2007 (1 of 7) — Ken Whisenhunt/Cardinals.

● 2008 (1 of 4) — Jim Zorn/Redskins.

● 2009 (1 of 11) — Mike Singletary/49ers.

● 2010 (0 of 3) — None.

● 2011 (5 of 8) — Jim Harbaugh/49ers, Leslie Frazier/Vikings, Jason Garrett/Cowboys, Mike Munchak/Titans, Ron Rivera/Panthers.

● 2012 (2 of 7) — Jeff Fisher/Rams, Mike Mularkey/Jaguars.

● 2013 (1 of 8) — Doug Marrone/Bills.

● 2014 (1 of 7) — Ken Whisenhunt/Titans.

Note: Interim coaches not included.

● Total: 26 of 103 hires (25.2%).

● 1 has won the Super Bowl (Dungy).

● 3 have taken a team to the Super Bowl (Dungy, Whisenhunt, Harbaugh). Record: 1-2, .333.

● That’s 3 Super Bowl berths out of 28 (10.7%).

Where does this leave us? Well, I’m not convinced the NFL would be radically different if there were more former players serving as head coaches. But I am convinced the game would be better. Why? Because there are undoubtedly some very good football minds that aren’t going into coaching, many more than before. And just as there are never enough good quarterbacks, there are never enough good coaches. Remember: 12 of the first 20 Super Bowls were won by teams coached by ex-players.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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More than you ever wanted to know about coaching hires

Now that Dennis Allen has been asked to turn in his key fob in Oakland, after coaching the Raiders for a mere 36 games (28 of them losses), it might be a good time to talk about NFL coaching hires. It’s a fertile area for study, with plenty of data to analyze, yet little is ever written about it. Coaches come and coaches go — sometimes at a head-spinning rate — and everybody seems fine with that. Maybe it’s because they can’t score points in Fantasy Football.

Take this year’s seven new hires. At the quarter pole of Season 1, this is where they stand:

[table width=“300px”]

Coach\,Team,W-L

Jim Caldwell\, Lions,3-1

Bill O’Brien\, Texans,3-1

Mike Zimmer\, Vikings,2-2

Mike Pettine\, Browns,1-2

Jay Gruden\, Redskins,1-3

Lovie Smith\, Bucs,1-3

Ken Whisenhunt\, Titans,1-3

Total,12-15

[/table]

It’s just a snapshot, sure, but did anybody have much of a feel going into the season about which of these coaches would be successful right out of the chute and which wouldn’t? Along those same lines, would anyone wager much money on which of them — if any — will still be in their jobs, say, five years from now?

Obviously, no coach is an island. Winning takes a village, from the owner and general manager on down. Luck also factors in — especially when you get to draft Oliver Luck with the first pick of the draft instead of JaMarcus Russell or Tim Couch. Even so, there’s much about the selection of an NFL coach that’s just plain mysterious. Here’s why:

There’s no cone drill for a would-be coach to run, no Wonderlic test to take. He doesn’t get asked to jump as high as he can, hoist a barbell until his biceps bark or do anything particularly measurable — except maybe eat a 24-ounce porterhouse at Morton’s during the interview.

Think about it: Teams will put their first-round picks under a magnifying glass, looking for flaws with a jeweler’s scrutiny. The draft has become a national obsession fed by Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and scores of other gurus, amateur and professional. Whose stock is rising? Whose is falling? Should my team trade up? Trade down? Stockpile picks for next year, when talent pool is deeper? Fans take this stuff very seriously. Or to put it another way, you mock their mock draft at your peril.

None of that hysteria — or thoroughness, it would seem — surrounds the hiring of coaches. The Texans (O’Brien) and Bucs (Smith) had their men by Jan. 2, four days after the regular season ended. The other five openings were filled in the next three weeks (and it only took that long because the Browns dawdled before deciding on Pettine). Granted, there’s a practicality to settling on a coach as soon as possible: much work needs to be done. But it makes you wonder how much Deep Thinking is involved in the process, especially since it’s arguably the most crucial decision a club will make.

So why don’t we look at these hires a little more closely, not just the ones this year but all the hires in the 2000s. It gives us a nice-sized sample — 103 in all (interim coaches not included) — from which to spot patterns, draw conclusions and just bat around a subject that, to me, is strangely underexplored. Some of results, no doubt, will surprise you. Such as:

● 26 of the 103 coaches (25.2%) had a quarterback in their first season who either (a.) had started in the Super Bowl or (b.) would start in the Super Bowl. Seems like a lot, doesn’t it? (Of course, part of reason is that we have to include guys like Rex Grossman, Zimmer’s No. 3 in Cleveland, who started in the Super Bowl for the Bears seven seasons ago and, at this stage, is basically on emergency standby. Still, 26 past or future Super Bowl QBs — who would have guessed? And the number can only go up, depending on how some of these young guns (e.g. Luck, Robert Griffin III, Teddy Bridgewater, even Matthew Stafford, who’s still only 26) develop.

● The same number, 26 (25.2%), had a Top 3 draft pick their first year, and 12 (11.7 percent) had the first overall pick (as O’Brien and the Texans did this year).

● Fewer and fewer Super Bowl coaches are former NFL (or AFL) players. Twenty-three of the first 24 Super Bowls featured at least one coach who was an ex-player. The last 24 Super Bowls have been much different; only seven had a coach who had played in the league (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose NFL “career” consists of three games as a replacement during the 1987 strike).

● Average win total of first-year coaches: 7.1. (Read it and weep. Or perhaps not.)

● 61 (64.2 percent) of them, though, improved the team’s record that first season. You can see, then, why owners aren’t shy about firing coaches, even after one year. They usually get an immediate bump — in the short term, anyway.

OK, that’s enough for now. More — much more — as we go along.

Who gets hired?

When I started crunching the numbers, I had some preconceived notions. For one thing, I figured more offensive than defensive coaches would be getting jobs because the game is so tilted toward the offense. My reasoning: Better to have a head guy who knows quarterbacks and can take advantage of all the rules that favor that side of the ball. After all, defense can be such a fruitless proposition nowadays (though a handful of teams, the champion Seahawks first and foremost, play it well).

Anyway, I was wrong. For the 103 coaches hired since 2000, the offense/defense split is virtually identical: 52/51. This season, before the Allen firing, it was dead even: 16 O, 16 D.

I also thought recycled coaches would be more successful than first-timers. Just a hunch; I didn’t have anything concrete to base it on. (Kickers, it seems, are like that, too.) This time my suspicion was (mostly) right. Here’s how it breaks down:

First-time coaches: 66 (not counting the 2014 hires).

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 11 (16.7%), 4 winners (6.1%), 4-8 record (.333).

● Made it to the conference title game: 15 (22.7%), 11 winners (16.7%), 12-13 record (.480).

● Made the playoffs: 32 (48.5%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 48 (16.7%). This number might end up higher because there are still 22 active first-time coaches, several of whom — including Super Bowl winners Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens), Sean Payton (Saints) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) — have been quite successful. But it still takes your breath away.

● Finished at .500 or below: 40 of 48 (83.3%).

Recycled coaches: 30 (again, not counting the 2014 hires).

● Super Bowl: 6 (20%), 5 winners (16.7%), 8-3 record (.727).

● Conference title game: 7 (23.3%), 6 winners (20%), 11-5 record (.688).

● Playoffs: 16 (53.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 24 (33.3%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 16 of 24 (66.7%) Note: Nine recycled coaches are still active.

Admittedly, one coach — e.g. the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who has been to five Super Bowls and won three — can skew things. But even if you eliminated Belichick, you’d still have as many retreads as first-timers winning rings (4) — and a far higher percentage of them (13.3% to 6.1%).

You’re hired to get fired

There’s a reason people are always saying that, and it’s not just because it rhymes. Look at these figures:

● 30 of 66 first-time coaches (45.4%) — Allen being the latest — were gone within three years. (That includes four who bailed for college jobs and another who resigned rather than shuffle his staff.)

● 12 of 30 recycled coaches (46.7%) also lasted three seasons or less.

● And these percentages likely will increase depending on how the last three coaching classes, who haven’t reached the three-year threshold yet, fare.

Not For Long League, indeed.

Offensive coaches vs. defensive coaches

Offensive (48*):

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 9 (18.8%), 4 winners (8.3%), 5-5 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 10 (20.8%), 9 winners (18.8%), 10-5 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 22 (45.8%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 7 of 36 (19.4%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 29 of 36 (80.6%).

Defensive (48*):

● Super Bowl: 8 (16.7%), 5 winners (10.4%), 8-5 record (.615).

● Conference title game: 12 (25%), 8 winners (16.7%), 13-13 record (.500).

● Playoffs: 26 (54.2%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 9 of 35 (25.7%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 26 of 35 (74.3%).

*Not counting 2014 hires.

Again, there’s a Belichick Factor here, but even without him the group has 18 conference title game berths, three more than the offensive bunch. That’s because Tony Dungy (Colts), John Fox (Panthers/Broncos), Lovie Smith (Bears), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Rex Ryan (Jets) all went — or have gone — to two or more.

Note, too, that a significantly higher percentage of defensive coaches have made the playoffs (54.2 to 45.8).

In terms of longevity, here’s the comparison:

● 24 of 36 offensive coaches (66.7%) were fired by the end of their third season.

● 18 of 36 defensive coaches (50%) also never saw Year 4.

Note: 12 offensive and 12 defensive coaches are still on the job.

In-house hires

The sample sizes start to get smaller now. Just 18 coaches fall into this category, eight of whom started with the “interim” title before being given the job outright. (The only current one is the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett.) The breakdown:

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 3 of 18 (16.7%), 0 winners (0%), 0-3 record (.000).

● Made it to the conference title game 3 of 18 (16.7%), 3 winners (16.7%), 3-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 6 of 18 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 4 of 17 (23.5 percent). (Garrett is excluded because he’s still coaching.)

● Finished at .500 or below: 13 of 17 (76.5 percent).

● Lasted three seasons or less: 12 of 18 (66.7%).

Coaches who came from the college ranks

There have been 12 of these, an even smaller group.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 1 winner (8.3%), 1-1 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 2 winners (16.7%), 2-2 record (.500).

● Made the playoffs: 4 of 12 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 0 of 7 (0%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 7 of 7 (100 percent).

Note: 5 are still active, including the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll, the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh and the Eagles’ Chip Kelly.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 6 of 9 (66.7%). (Three of the active coaches are in their first or second year.)

Unemployed/retired coaches

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000). (Take a bow, Tom Coughlin.)

● Made it to the conference title game: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 10 (50%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 7 (28.6%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

Note: 3 are still on the sideline — the Giants’ Coughlin, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher and the Bucs’ Lovie Smith.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 8 (37.5%).

Coaches just fired by another team

This is the smallest bunch of all. I’m talking about guys who were hired immediately after losing a head job somewhere else.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 1 winner (14.3%), 1-1 record (.500). Any guesses who the two coaches are? Answer: Tony Dungy, who won with the Colts after being fired by the Bucs, and John Fox, who lost with the Broncos after being canned by the Panthers.

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 2 winners (28.6%), 2-1 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 5 (40%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 3 of 5 (60%).

Note: Fox and the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, cast off by the Eagles, are still gainfully employed.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 6 (50%). (Reid is in only his second season in Kansas City.)

Better, worse or the same?

How have coaches done in their first year, compared to the team’s previous season?

● Better record: 61 of 95 (64.2%).

● Same record: 6 of 95 (6.3%).

● Worse record: 28 of 95 (29.5%).

(Dom Capers’ first season with the Texans in 2002 is excluded because it was an expansion team.)

● Missed the playoffs: 69 of 96 (71.9%).

● Went to the playoffs: 27 of 96 (28.1%).

● Took team to the playoffs after it had missed them the season before: 20 of 95 (21.1%).

● Missed the playoffs after the team had gone the season before: 2 of 95 (2.1%).

(Again, Capers was excluded from the last two because the ’02 Texans didn’t have a “season before.”)

● Winning record: 31 of 96 (32.3%).

Of those 31, 25 went to the playoffs, two went with .500 (John Fox/2011 Broncos) or below (Pete Carroll/2010 Seahawks, 7-9) records and six missed them.

● .500 record: 13 of 96 (13.5%). So 44 of 96 (45.8%) finished .500 or better. (And Jeff Fisher just missed with the 2012 Rams at 7-8-1.)

What kind of draft situation do new coaches walk into?

● First overall pick: 12 of 103 (11.7%).

● Top 3 pick: 26 of 103 (25.2%).

● Top 5 pick: 38 of 103 (36.9%).

● Top 10 pick: 61 of 103 (59.2%).

● No first-round pick: 10 of 103 (9.7%).

● Worst top pick of any of the 103 coaches hired since 2000: 95th (Allen, Raiders, 2012). Yup, that’s a real plum job Dennis landed. (Oakland used the third-rounder to select guard Tony Bergstrom, who has started a grand total of one game.)

Taking Over a Winning Team

None of this year’s new coaches was fortunate enough to inherit a winning club, but since 2000:

● 16 of 102 have (15.7%). (Capers excluded.)

● 10 of the 16 (62.5%) went to the playoffs.

● 5 reached the conference title game (Jon Gruden/2002 Bucs, Bill Callahan/’02 Raiders, Norv Turner/’07 Chargers, Jim Caldwell/’09 Colts, Rex Ryan/’09 Jets).

● 3 made it to the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs, Callahan/’02 Raiders, Caldwell/’09 Colts).

● 1 won the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs).

● 4 other first-year coaches also went to the conference title game (Jim Mora Jr./’04 Falcons, Sean Payton/’06 Saints, John Harbaugh/’08 Ravens, Jim Harbaugh/’11 49ers). All of them lost. So 9 of 96 coaches (9.4%) went at least as far as the conference title game in their first season.

Moral No. 1: Changing coaches after a winning year isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world.

Moral No. 2: An almost 1-in-10 chance to get to the conference championship game — for a team that just brought in a new coach — sounds pretty good to me.

Some other factoids:

● Marc Trestman (2013 Bears) is the only coach since 2010 — 33 hires, counting the seven this year — to inherit a winning team. He took over a 10-6 club from Lovie Smith and went 8-8.

● Marty Schottenheimer is the last coach to be fired after a playoff season (14-2 with the ’06 Chargers). The two others this happened to: Tony Dungy (9-7 with the ’01 Bucs) and Steve Mariucci (10-6 — plus a first-round win) with the ’02 49ers.

● The luck of Herman Edwards: Both times he was hired as a head coach, he took over a team that had finished with a winning record the year before but had missed the playoffs — first with the ’01 Jets (9-7 in ’00 under Al Groh, who left for the University of Virginia), then with the ’06 Chiefs (10-6 in ’05 under Dick Vermeil, who retired once and for all). He went 10-6 in his first season with the Jets (and made the playoffs) and 9-7 in his first season with the Chiefs (and made the playoffs again). His team failed to advance both years.

● Vermeil retired twice after having a winning team — the ’99 Rams (successor: Mike Martz) and the ’05 Chiefs (Edwards). Jimmy Johnson (9-7, ’99 Dolphins), Bill Parcells (9-7, ’06 Cowboys), Joe Gibbs (9-7, ’07 Redskins) and Tony Dungy (12-4, ’08 Colts) also retired on a winning note. Five of those six teams made the playoffs (Vermeil’s ’05 Chiefs being the exception).

● Martz (2000 Rams) is the lone coach since 2000 to be handed a Super Bowl winner — or even a Super Bowl loser.

● 1993 was the last year at least half the coaches were former NFL/AFL players (14 of 28). The number has shrunk to six this season (again, not counting picket-line-crosser Payton). That’s 18.8 percent. In 1970, when the two leagues merged, it was 61.5 percent (16 of 26).

What do we make of this mountain of data? Whatever you will, I guess. But sifting through the numbers, an ideal candidate emerges (for me, anyway): a recycled coach from a defensive background who, in a perfect world, has just been fired. Or maybe he’s been out of the game for a season or two.

When you look at the seven new coaches, Lovie Smith comes closest to fitting the profile – the same Lovie, it pains me to add, who lost 56-14 to the Falcons two weeks ago. That’s why, no matter how teams go about them, these coaching searches are still a game of Blind Man’s Bluff. Somewhere out there, though, there has to be another Vince Lombardi, doesn’t there?

Postscript: Because I know you’re dying to find out, here are the 26 Super Bowl quarterbacks I referred to earlier.

First-year coaches who had Super Bowl QBs (past or future)

● Dave Campo, 2000 Cowboys — Troy Aikman (3-0 in the Super Bowl in the past).

● Mike Martz, 2000 Rams — Kurt Warner (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Bill Belichick, 2000 Patriots — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past).

● Mike Sherman, 2000 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past).

● Tony Dungy, 2000 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-2 in future).

● Marty Schottenheimer, 2002 Chargers — Drew Brees (1-0 in future).

● Bill Callahan, 2002 Raiders — Rich Gannon (0-1 in future — that season).

● Jon Gruden, 2002 Raiders — Brad Johnson (1-0 in future — that season).

● Tom Coughlin, 2004 Giants — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total). The Giants also drafted Eli Manning that year (2-0 in future).

● Norv Turner, 2004 Raiders — Kerry Collins (0-1 in past).

● Lovie Smith, 2004 Bears — Rex Grossman (0-1 in future).

● Mike Mularkey, 2004 Bills — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past)

● Romeo Crennel, 2005 Browns — Trent Dilfer (0-1 in past)

● Sean Payton, 2006 Saints — Drew Brees (1-0 in future)

● Brad Childress, 2006 Vikings — Brad Johnson (1-0 in past)

● Mike McCarthy, 2006 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past). Plus, the Packers had drafted Aaron Rodgers (1-0 in future) the year before.

● Ken Whisenhunt, 2007 Cardinals — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total).

● Mike Tomlin, 2007 Steelers — Ben Roethlisberger (1-0 in past, 1-1 in future, 2-1 total).

● John Harbaugh, 2008 Ravens — Joe Flacco (1-0 in future).

● Jim Caldwell, 2009 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Jim Mora Jr., 2009 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Pete Carroll, 2010 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Mike Shanahan, 2010 Redskins — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past). The Redskins also had Rex Grossman (0-1 in past) on the roster.

● Leslie Frazier, 2011 Vikings — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past).

● Mike Munchak, 2011 Titans — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

To boil it down further:

— 18 of the 96 first-year coaches (2000-13) had a QB who had started in the Super Bowl in the past (18.8%).

— 10 had a QB who won the Super Bowl in the past (10.4%).

— 12 had a QB who would start in the Super Bowl in the future (12.5%).

— 6 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl in the future (6.3%).

— 5 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl with them as coach (5.2%).

— The 5 coaches who had QBs with a Super Bowl in their past and future: Martz ’00 (Warner), Coughlin ’04 (Warner), Whisenhunt ’07 (Warner), Tomlin ’07 (Roethlisberger), Caldwell ’09 (P. Manning).

● The 3 coaches who had two past and/or future Super Bowl QBs on the roster: Coughlin ’04 (Warner, E. Manning), McCarthy ’06 (Favre, Rodgers), Shanahan ’10 (McNabb, Grossman).

For a fair number of first-year coaches, in other words, the cupboard is far from bare.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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