Category Archives: 2010s

The big tease

Sure, the Cardinals and Steelers missed the playoffs last year, but they did go 6-2 in the second half. (Not to sound like a Holiday Inn Express commercial or anything.) That was the best record by any team that didn’t qualify for the postseason. How much does this mean, though? Are these clubs on the verge of greater things, or does a strong finish one year have little bearing on the next?

Let’s look at the previous four years and the teams that earned this distinction:

[table width=”350 px”]

Year  Team (W-L),2nd Half,Next Season

2012  Cowboys (8-8),5-3,8-8

2012  Panthers (7-9),5-3,12-4

2011  Cardinals (8-8),6-2,5-11

2010  Chargers (9-7),6-2,8-8

2009  Titans (8-8),6-2,6-10

[/table]

A bit surprising, you have to admit. Three went backward the next year, one stayed stuck in its 8-8 rut and the other — the Panthers — won the division title (and got a first-round bye in the playoffs).

But that’s a rather small sample size. So I researched the matter further — back to 1990, when the playoffs were expanded to 12 entrants. A total of 39 clubs in those 24 seasons fell into the Best Second-Half Record By A Non-Playoff Team category (accounting for ties). Here’s how they did the following year:

[table width=”250 px”],,

Made playoffs,15

Missed playoffs,24

Wild card,   7

Division champion,   8

Reached conference title game,   5

Reached Super Bowl,   3

Won Super Bowl,   1

[/table]

As you can see, almost two-third of the clubs (61.5 percent) failed to qualify for the playoffs the next season. The last four years, in other words, are no aberration. For teams such as these, there simply isn’t much of a carry-over effect. Indeed, 24 of them — the same 61.5 percent — failed to improve their record the following season, much less make the playoffs. (Fifteen were better, 19 were worse and five posted the same mark.)

The clubs that reached the Super Bowl, by the way, were the 1998 Falcons (7-9 the year before, 6-2 in the second half), 2003 Patriots (9-7/5-3) and ’08 Cardinals (8-8/5-3). And the only one that walked off with the Lombardi Trophy, of course, was the ’03 Pats, who had won it just two seasons earlier (and would win it again in ’04).

The moral: Don’t get your hopes too high if your team finishes its season on an upswing. It could lead to greater success, but the odds are against it. Why? Oh, you could probably come up with a bunch of reasons — injuries, free-agent defections, a tougher schedule, bad luck, and on and on. Then, too, winning games when you’re out of the running – as many of these clubs were – is a lot like gaining yards when you’re hopelessly behind. They might make things look a little better, but looks can be deceiving.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book

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The Top 10 in 2014 vs. the Top 10 in 1964

It’s always educational to go back in time and see where the NFL was, say, 50 years ago and how it compares to today. So I decided to find out who the career leaders were in various offensive categories at the start of the 1964 season, just for kicks. What did it take to make the all-time Top 10 back then? Which players had fallen through the cracks of history? I learned plenty, I must say. Why don’t we begin with the running backs (since they were so much bigger a deal in the ’60s)?

[table]

Most rushing yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

9\,322  Jim Brown,18\,355  Emmitt Smith

8\,378  Joe Perry,16\,726  Walter Payton

5\,860  Steve Van Buren,15\,269  Barry Sanders

5\,599  Jim Taylor,14\,101  Curtis Martin

5\,534  Rick Casares,13\,684  LaDainian Tomlinson

5\,518  John Henry Johnson,13\,662  Jerome Bettis

5\,233  Hugh McElhenny,13\,259  Eric Dickerson

4\,565  Ollie Matson,12\,739  Tony Dorsett

4\,428  Alex Webster,12\,312  Jim Brown

4\,315  J.D. Smith,12\,279  Marshall Faulk

[/table]

Think about it: To be one of the Top 10 rushers in NFL history half a century ago, all you needed was 4,315 yards. Adrian Peterson surpassed that by the end of his third season (4,484). Eric Dickerson nearly got there in his second (3,913). By current standards, it’s not that much yardage. (Consider: Among active backs, the Colts’ Ahmad Bradshaw is closest to Smith’s total with 4,418. That ranks him 160th all time.)

But it was a significant amount of yardage in 1964, the league’s 45th year. Careers were shorter. Seasons were shorter. Only the rare player (e.g. Brown) put up numbers that had much longevity.

Note, too: Three backs on the ’64 list — the Bears’ Casares, the Giants’ Webster and the 49ers’ Smith — aren’t in the Hall of Fame and never will be. Yet there’s a good chance every back on the ’14 list will make it. The only ones who haven’t been voted in, after all, are Bettis and Tomlinson. But LT is a lock once he’s eligible, and Bettis has been a finalist the last four years and figures to get his ticket punched eventually.

And understandably so, I suppose. The threshold for breaking into the Top 10 — in all offensive departments — is so much higher these days. You not only have to play longer, you usually have to be fairly productive in your 30s, which for a running back is far from guaranteed. Payton, hard as it is to believe, rushed for more yards after his 30th birthday (6,522) than Van Buren did in his entire career (5,860). And Steve was the all-time leader for nearly a decade.

Finally, three of the Top 7 rushers 50 years ago — Perry (2nd), Johnson (6th) and McElhenny (7th) –actually played together for three seasons in San Francisco (1954-56), though they often weren’t healthy at the same time. “The Million-Dollar Backfield,” they were called (the fourth Hall of Fame member being quarterback Y.A. Tittle). John Henry, ever the joker, liked to tell people: “I’m still lookin’ for the million.”

On to the receivers:

[table]

Most receiving yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

8\,459  Billy Howton,22\,895  Jerry Rice

7\,991  Don Hutson,15\,934  Terrell Owens

6\,920  Raymond Berry,15\,292  Randy Moss

6\,299  Crazylegs Hirsch,15\,208  Isaac Bruce

5\,902  Billy Wilson,15\,127  Tony Gonzalez

5\,619  Pete Pihos,14\,934  Tim Brown

5\,594  Del Shofner,14\,580  Marvin Harrison

5\,508  Ray Renfro,14\,004  James Lofton

5\,499  Tommy McDonald,13\,899  Cris Carter

5\,476  Max McGee,13\,777  Henry Ellard

[/table]

That’s right, McGee, Paul Hornung’s old drinking buddy on the Packers, was No. 10 in receiving yards as the ’64 season got underway. I wasn’t prepared for that (though I knew he was a pretty good wideout). Here is he is (fuzzily) scoring the first points in Super Bowl history by making a one-handed touchdown catch:

Amazingly, Howton, who tops the list — and was McGee’s teammate in Green Bay for a while — isn’t in the Hall. I’ve always thought he belongs, even though he played on a series of losing clubs. But that’s a subject for another post.

Also excluded from Canton, besides McGee, are the 49ers’ Wilson, the Giants’ Shofner and the Browns’ Renfro. In other words, half of the Top 10 in receiving yards half a century ago haven’t been enshrined. Does that seem like a lot to you?

I doubt people will be saying that about the current Top 10 50 years from now. Rice and Lofton already have their gold jackets, and most of the others have strong arguments.

Speaking of Rice, that 22,895 figure never ceases to astound, does it? It’s almost as many as the Top 3 receivers combined on the ’64 list (23,370).

Something else that shouldn’t be overlooked: a tight end (Tony Gonzalez) has infiltrated the Top 10 (at No. 5) — and he won’t be the last. The position has become too important to the passing game.

Lastly — because I wanted to keep you in suspense — the quarterbacks:

[table]

Most passing yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

28\,339  Y.A. Tittle,71\,838  Brett Favre

26\,768  Bobby Layne,64\,964  Peyton Manning

23\,611  Norm Van Brocklin,61\,361  Dan Marino

21\,886  Sammy Baugh,51\,475  John Elway

21\,491  Johnny Unitas,51\,081  Drew Brees

19\,488  Charlie Conerly,49\,325  Warren Moon

17\,654  Tobin Rote,49\,149  Tom Brady

17\,492  George Blanda,47\,003  Fran Tarkenton

16\,303  Billy Wade,46\,233  Vinny Testaverde

14\,686  Sid Luckman,44\,611  Drew Bledsoe

[/table]

Both groups are well represented in the Hall. Seven from ’64 are in, including the Top 5, and the Top 8 from ’14 are destined to join them. And get this: The three ’64 guys who haven’t been ushered into Canton — Conerly (’56 Giants), Rote (’57 Lions, plus the ’63 Chargers in the AFL) and Wade (’63 Bears) — all quarterbacked teams to titles. Quite an accomplished bunch.

For those wondering where Otto Graham is, he did indeed rack up 23,584 passing yards, but 10,085 of them came in the rival All-America Conference. That left him 12th, for the NFL’s purposes, going into the ’64 season (with 13,499). It’s a bit unfair — and also affects some of his teammates (running back Marion Motley, receivers Dante Lavelli and Mac Speedie) — but what are ya gonna do?

At any rate, it takes a lot of yards to crack any of these Top 10s nowadays. You’d better pack a lunch — and maybe dinner and a midnight snack, too.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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You never want to beat yourself, unless . . .

Had Peyton Manning not sat out the last game of the 2004 season — except for the first three snaps, that is — he might have done something last year that hadn’t been done in two decades: break his own NFL season record.

Manning, you may recall, had 49 touchdown passes going into the ’04 finale at Denver. He’d topped Dan Marino’s mark of 48 the week before, so there was no compelling reason for him to run up the score, so to speak — especially since the Colts had already clinched their division and had no shot at a first-round bye. So after the first series against the Broncos, coach Tony Dungy played it safe and replaced him with Jim Sorgi.

Three years later, the Patriots’ Tom Brady threw for 50 TDs to edge past Manning. And last season Manning threw for 55 to take the record back. But had Peyton gone the distance in the ’04 closer, he might well have thrown for several scores. Indeed, the following week in the playoffs, in a rematch with Denver, he threw for four in a 49-24 blowout. Could Brady have gotten to 52 or 53 – or more? I wouldn’t count on it.

Ah, what might have been. The last time a player broke his own NFL season record, according to my research, was in 1993, when the Packers’ Sterling Sharpe caught 112 passes, surpassing his own mark of 108 set in ’92. (The next year, the Vikings’ Cris Carter topped Sharpe by hauling in 122. So it goes in the receiving game.)

I’m not talking about any old records, by the way. I’m talking about records that fans care about (at least a little). We seem to be at the point in pro football history where this sort of thing – self-erasure – is getting incredibly hard to do.

It wasn’t always thus. In the ’30s and ’40s, another Packers receiver – the iconic Don Hutson – upped his own record nine times in various categories (receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, points scored). Of course, the passing game was still in its infancy then, and Green Bay was one of the few teams that made effective use of it.

Nowadays, though, one record-breaking season appears to be all a player has in him. Take the Saints’ Drew Brees, for instance. Three years ago he threw for 5,476 yards to blow by Marino’s longstanding mark of 5,084. In 2012, however, despite a fabulous effort with a 7-9 team, he fell 299 yards short of his record. Now that he’s 35, he might never get that close again.

Maybe this is another way we can measure greatness: Was a guy good enough to break his own season mark? The list of players who’ve done it since — World War II — is fairly short:

● RB Steve Van Buren*, Eagles (rushing yards) — 1,008 in 1946 (old mark: 1,004), 1,146 in ’49.

● E Tom Fears*, Rams (receptions) — 77 in 1949 (old mark: 74), 84 in ’50.

● K Lou Groza*, Browns (field goals) — 13 in 1950 (old mark: 12 by drop-kicker Paddy Driscoll of the Bears in ’26), 19 in ’52, 23 in ’53. (Yes, he broke his own record twice.)

● RB Jim Brown*, Browns (rushing yards) — 1,527 in 1958 (old mark: 1,146), 1,863 in ’63.

● QB Y.A. Tittle*, Giants (touchdown passes) — 33 in ’62 (old mark: 32), 36 in ’63.

Note: George Blanda tossed 36 TD passes for the Houston Oilers in 1961. But I’m excluding the pre-merger (1960-66) AFL from this discussion, even though the NFL includes the league’s statistics in its record book. It just wasn’t as good a league in the early years (much as I enjoyed it).

● QB Dan Fouts*, Chargers (passing yards) — 4,082 in 1979 (old mark: 4,007), 4,715 in ’80, 4,802 in ’81.

Note: The record Fouts broke in ’79 was set by the Jets’ Joe Namath in a 14-game season. So he didn’t really break it, not if you go by per-game average (255.1 for Dan vs. 286.2 for Broadway Joe). But his ’80 (294.7) and ’81 (300.1) averages were better than Namath’s.

● WR Sterling Sharpe, Packers (receptions) — 108 in 1992 (old mark: 106), 112 in ’93.

* Hall of Fame

As you can see, the only one of the Select Seven who isn’t in the Hall is Sharpe, whose career was cut short by injury. He may yet make it as a Veterans Candidate, though. After all, he did put up some impressive numbers in just seven seasons (595 catches, 8,134 yards, 65 TDs, 5 Pro Bowls).

Anyway, it’s something for the Lions’ Calvin Johnson to think about as he attempts to climb Mount 2,000.

Sources: The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia, pro-football-reference.com

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Tom Tupa’s claim to fame

Twenty years ago this week, Tom Tupa, the well-traveled punter-quarterback (Cardinals/Colts/Browns/Patriots/Jets/Bucs/Redskins), staked off a little bit of history for himself. Can you remember what he did?

In Cleveland’s opener against Cincinnati, Tupa scored the NFL’s first two-point conversion. (That is, as opposed to the two-pointers scored in the AFL before the leagues merged and eliminated the option — temporarily.)

After the first Browns touchdown, Tupa trotted out to hold for the PAT. But after taking the snap, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported, he “duped the Bengals and ran up the middle” for two points, giving his club an 11-0 lead. Cincy never recovered. (Or something like that.)

His daring coach? Bill Belichick — the same guy who, following a Patriots TD in the 2005 regular-season finale, said to Doug Flutie, “Why don’t you go in and dropkick the point-after?” (The 43-Screen Shot 2014-09-05 at 12.01.05 PMyear-old Flutie, playing in his last NFL game, booted it right through, of course.)

Tupa became a minor sensation in ’94 by scoring three two-point conversions, which tied the AFL record for a season and is still the second-most all time. Here’s a newspaper story detailing his heroics. According to this account, “The Bengals overplayed the right side of the Browns’ line, Tupa took the direct snap from center and ran untouched to the left behind Orlando Brown’s pancake block on Steve Tovar.”

Note, too, Tupa’s two-pointer against the Houston Oilers made Cleveland’s final margin 11-8 – the only 11-8 game, it turns out, in NFL annals. (Then again, had he been unsuccessful, it would have been the only 9-8 game in NFL annals.)

Two decades into this Two-Point Conversion Thing, you can’t say it’s had a profound impact. There’s never been a two-pointer in the Super Bowl that truly mattered, and only a handful that figured in other games of significance. One of the more notable ones in recent years was when Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins ran for two points in the final minute of regulation against the Ravens in 2012 to send the teams to overtime (where Washington prevailed, 31-28). The victory kept the streaking Redskins in the playoff hunt, and Baltimore – surprise, surprise – went on to win the Lombardi Trophy.

Bottom line: The two-point conversion has been a nice conversation piece, something to occasionally screw up the betting line, but not much more than that.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Toledo Blade.

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A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign or trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets – Joe Namath’s team – have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

[table]

Year  Team (Record),Receivers\, Yards,Result

1984  Dolphins (14-2),Mark Clayton 1\,389\, Mark Duper 1\,306,Lost Super Bowl

1995  Lions (10-6),Herman Moore 1\,686\, Brett Perriman 1\,488,Wild Card

2000  Rams (10-6),Torry Holt 1\,635\, Isaac Bruce 1\,471,Wild Card

2000  Broncos (11-5),Rod Smith 1\,602\, Ed McCaffrey 1\,317,Wild Card

2002  Steelers (10-5-1),Hines Ward 1\,329\, Plaxico Burress 1\,325,Won Division

2005  Cardinals (5-11),Larry Fitzgerald 1\,409\, Anquan Boldin 1\,402,Missed Playoffs

2006  Colts (12-4),Marvin Harrison 1\,366\, Reggie Wayne 1\,310,Won Super Bowl

2011  Patriots (13-3),Wes Welker 1\,569\, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1\,327,Lost Super Bowl

[/table]

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high hopes in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because (a.) Wes missed the last three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout to throw to in Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13). The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed in the direction of their two 1,300-Yard Men.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback, Team(s),W-L,Pct

1969-79,Roger Staubach,Cowboys,9-0,1.000

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1,.917

2002-13,Michael Vick,Falcons\, Eagles,6-1,.857

2007-13,Jay Cutler,Broncos\, Bears,6-1,.857

1963-68,Frank Ryan,Browns, 5-1,.833

2008-13,Joe Flacco,Ravens,5-1,.833

[/table]

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback,Team (s),W-L-T,Pct

1983-98,John Elway,Broncos,12-4-0,.750

1992-10,Brett Favre,Packers\, Jets\, Vikings,12-6-0,.667

1961-78,Fran Tarkenton,Vikings\, Giants,11-6-1,.639

1998-13,Peyton Manning,Colts\, Broncos,11-4-0,.733

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1-0,.917

[/table]

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Roger Goodell through the lens of his predecessors

Whether or not Roger Goodell survives this latest tempest, the job of NFL commissioner has to change. Goodell spends too much time these days in his judge’s robes, weighing evidence and dispensing justice (or some facsimile). When things get particularly gnarly — and how often aren’t they these nightmarish days — it’s almost as if he’s presiding over night court.

And it’s not just players who are being hauled before him by the bailiff. It’s an owner who drove drunk (with a veritable pharmacy in his car). Or an owner who thought he could game the salary-cap system. Or a coach who ran a bounty program.

There’s simply too much misbehavior in the NFL for one person to deal with, especially when you consider all the other duties a commissioner is expected to perform. The job was never meant to be like this. Or rather, the Founding Fathers — George Halas and the rest — never thought of the commissioner, first and foremost, as judge, jury and executioner. A spokesman for the league? Sure. Its commanding general in labor battles and TV negotiations? Absolutely. A consensus-builder and Man of Vision on important issues? Without question. But a pro football version of “Judge Judy”? Not so much.

In the early years, Joe Carr, who was commissioner longer than anyone except Pete Rozelle (1921-39), could usually be found traveling around the league, attending games and looking in on

Joe Carr

Joe Carr

franchises. “I was always getting calls,” he once said, “to come in and help them unsnarl their finances.”

When owners meetings got contentious — that is, when the Bears’ Halas looked ready to slap a headlock on somebody or the Redskins’ George Preston Marshall started irritating his lodge brothers in his imperious way — Carr would step in and calm the waters. “Many times at league meetings, we would recess late Saturday night in turmoil and on the verge of permanent dissolution,” Dr. Harry A. March, the Giants’ first general manager, wrote in Pro Football: Its Ups and Downs. “The next morning, he would lead the boys of his religion to Mass, and they would return in perfect harmony.”

Disciplinary matters took up little of Carr’s time. Oh, he might fine a club for signing an ineligible player, but the game itself was largely self-policing as far as on-field conduct was concerned, and off-field conduct was pretty much beyond his purview. (Though he did tell one sports columnist “a rule similar to the one in hockey, penalizing the player who offends by a one- or two-minute removal from the game, might make [for] less fouling and more action,” and that he planned “to urge the adoption of such a rule.” If only it had come to pass.)

Things began to change late in the 1946 season, when an attempt was made to fix the championship game between the Giants and Bears. A front man for a gambling syndicate had broached the subject with two members of the Giants, quarterback Frank Filchock and fullback Merle Hapes, and neither had reported it to the league. It was the last thing the NFL needed: any suggestion its games weren’t on the up and up. So commissioner Bert Bell was given more

Bert Bell

Bert Bell

authority to deal with such situations — and anything else that might be deemed a threat to the league. He suspended Filchock and Hapes indefinitely, and soon enough the scandal burned itself out.

Still, the commissionership then was nothing like the commissionership now. Nowadays, for instance, Goodell has to be eternally vigilant about the violence issue; and when he isn’t bringing down the hammer on somebody for over-rough play, he’s lobbying — or taking steps himself — to make the game safer. So much so that some are beginning to complain, with more than a little justification, that “you can’t play defense anymore.”

In the ’40s and ’50s, when there weren’t as many TV cameras or as much media covering the league, Bell could turn a blind eye to most of the carnage. An interview he gave Sports Illustrated in 1957 is enough to make you gasp.

“Somebody fouled [Eagles quarterback] Davey O’Brien once,” he told the magazine. “That guy got straightened out a little bit — in language — and every time he got hit. It was a little harder every time he got hit. . . . Sure, if a guy is looking for trouble, he gets it. That’s true. He’ll take a pretty fair thumping from the players, but legally.”

Bell, a former NFL owner and coach — and a college player at Penn before that — had a predictably old-school, boys-will-be-boys attitude toward dirty play and dangerous tactics. After the Eagles’ Bucko Kilroy broke the nose and jaw of the Steelers’ Dale Dodrill with an elbow in 1951, he said, “There are 300 big boys in this league, and somebody is bound to get bruised. I also noticed while reviewing this game that one of the Eagles got a busted cheek, too. I suppose that was an accident?”

After Bell, the job became a lot more complicated. Recreational drugs became an issue. PEDs became an issue. Misbehavior on and off the field became more visible and problematic. And again, this isn’t limited to just players. In management and the coaching ranks, the anything-it-takes-to-win mindset has never been more prevalent. You see teams trying to circumvent the cap, coaches bending OTA rules, all kinds of nefarious activities. If the NFL had any shame, it would be embarrassing.

At any rate, all this has fallen in the commissioner’s lap, and it’s clearly too much. Goodell’s handling of the Ray Rice episode — or mishandling, if you prefer — fairly screams this. Rice’s original two-game suspension, when many were expecting more, smacks of a commissioner who just wanted to get the case off his desk, Get The Matter Behind Us, rather than one committed to getting the decision right.

Is that a character flaw on Goodell’s part or merely occupational overload? If it’s the former, there isn’t much that can be done about it; but if it’s the latter, there is. For starters, you can take the Judge Judy out of the job and turn it over to . . . well, that’s an interesting subject. My first call would be to Alan Page, the Vikings’ Hall of Fame defensive tackle, who’s now an associate justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court. “How about coming back,” I’d say, “and helping us clean up this mess?”

Page, now 69, is probably too smart to want to assume the duties himself, but he’d no doubt have some good ideas about how to set up the operation so that everybody — not just the league and players, but also the fans — would feel their interests were being served. It might be a difficult balancing act, but it’s certainly worth the try. Right now, all we have is a commissioner handing down penalties from on high and, almost invariably, being criticized for being either (a.) too harsh or (b.) too lenient.

OK, occasionally folks actually agree with one of his rulings, but more often than not it’s a no-win situation. And all that does is make him — and the commissionership — look weak. It needs to stop. Now. If the NFL does nothing else in the wake the Rice debacle, it should create an Independent Judiciary to police the game. Goodell obviously isn’t up to the task. Indeed, no commissioner may be up to the task, as time-consuming as that function has become.

Maybe one man, one exceptional man, can do it. Maybe a tribunal is the answer — or a rotating group of arbitrators. There are all kinds of possibilities. Almost anything would be better than what the league has now.

It bears mentioning that Roger Goodell isn’t an elected official. He owes his allegiance to the owners, not the public. So he has no obligation to tell us the whole truth and nothing but the truth — unless, of course, he wants to, thinks he should. That’s just the way it works in corporate America. Or didn’t you get the memo?

He also wasn’t the guy who KO’d Janay Rice in the elevator — though, from the level of outrage directed at him, you’d sometimes think he was. Here’s what Goodell is, above all: A man who, in this emotionally charged instance, did his job incredibly poorly (and then dug the hole deeper by doing an even worse job of explaining himself).

The question now becomes: How does the league respond, pending the outcome of the investigation by former FBI director Robert S. Mueller III? Will Goodell get fired? Will he voluntarily fall on his sword? Or will the owners keep him on but decide, rightly: We have to find another way to deal with crime and punishment?

Whether Goodell stays or goes is of little concern to me. I don’t think he’s a particularly good commissioner, but I’m also not convinced the next one will be an improvement. The same owners, after all, will be hiring him. There’s plenty of evidence, though, that the job has become too big for one person.

The NFL is no longer the mom-and-pop operation it was in Carr’s day, and the winking denial of the Bell years has ceased being acceptable. So it will be fascinating to see where the league goes from here. Hopefully, for the game’s sake as much as their own, the owners understand they have to go somewhere, they can’t just keep doing what they’re doing. That would be the biggest mistake of all.

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Quality starts for quarterbacks

The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.

The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”

Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:

2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS

[table width=“300px”]

Quarterback\, Team,Quality Starts,

Peyton Manning\, Broncos,              15

Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              13

Matt Ryan\, Falcons,              12

Colin Kaepernick\, 49ers,              11

Tony Romo\, Cowboys,              11

Russell Wilson\, Seahawks,              11

Drew Brees\, Saints,              10

Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,              10

Matthew Stafford\, Lions,              10

[/table]

(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)

Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.

At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.

The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:

[table]

Year, League Avg,Quality Starts Leaders

2012,        83.8,Peyton Manning 14\, Aaron Rodgers 13\, Matt Ryan 13\, Russell Wilson 12

2011,        82.5,Tom Brady 14\, Drew Brees 14\, Rodgers 14\, Tony Romo 12\, Matt Stafford 12

2010,        82.2,Brady 14\, Joe Flacco 12\, Philip Rivers 12

2009,        81.2,Rivers 16\, Rodgers 15\, P. Manning 14\, Matt Schaub 14

2008,        81.5,Chad Pennington 12\, Rivers 12

2007,        80.9,Brady 13\, Romo 13\, David Garrard 12\, Matt Hasselbeck 12\, P. Manning 12

2006,        78.5,P. Manning 14\, Carson Palmer 13\, Brady 12\, Brees 12\, Rivers 12

2005,        78.2,Palmer 14\, Hasselbeck 13\, P. Manning 13\, Jake Delhomme 12\, Trent Green 12

2004,        80.9,P. Manning 15\, Daunte Culpepper 14\, Brees 12\, Green 12

2003,        76.6,Hasselbeck 13\, P. Manning 13\, Culpepper 12\, Steve McNair 12

2002,        78.6,Rich Gannon 13\, P. Manning 12\, Pennington 12

2001,        76.6,Gannon 14\, Jeff Garcia 14\, Brett Favre 12

2000,        76.2,Gannon 13\, Garcia 12\, Elvis Grbac 12\, P. Manning 12

[/table]

I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.

And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?

In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:

QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)

[table]

Year Quarterback\, Team,Quality Starts,Result (W-L-T)

2009 Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              16,Won division (13-3)

1992 Steve Young\, 49ers,              16,NFC finalist (14-2)

1984 Dan Marino\, Dolphins,              16,Super Bowl finalist (14-2)

1973 Fran Tarkenton\, Vikings,              14,Super Bowl finalist (12-2)

1960 Milt Plum\, Browns,              12,Missed playoffs (8-3-1)

[/table]

● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)

● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).

● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.

One more note:

● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.

Which brings us to . . .

MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS

[table width=”300px”]

Quarterback\,Team,Quality Starts

Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              62

Aaron Rodgers\, Packers,              60

Tom Brady\, Patriots,              59

Drew Brees\, Saints,              58

Peyton Manning\, Colts/Broncos,              53

[/table]

Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.

The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.

But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?

Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.

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Down by down with LeSean McCoy

Ever wonder what goes into being the NFL rushing champion? When exactly does he gain his yards? How is he used by the coaching staff?

Let’s find out by crunching the numbers for the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy, whose 1,607 yards last season gave him the title by a comfortable 268 over the Bears’ Matt Forte. As you’ll see, McCoy’s down-and-distance breakdown tells us much. (Note: The figures listed in the downs columns are attempts-yards-touchdowns.)

[table]

To Go,1st Down,2nd Down,3rd Down,4th Down,

11+,4-28-0,21-148-1,5-35-0,,

10,144-740-2,27-206-1,1-5-0,,

9,2-4-0,3-21-0,,,

8,2-7-0,13-53-0,,,

7,,8-25-0,1-5-0,,

6,,4-6-0,1-13-0,,

5,1-(-2)-0,7-37-0,1-10-0,,

4,,12-51-0,4-8-0,,

3,1-0-0,4-8-0,2-9-0,,

2,,8-13-0,9-33-0,1-5-0,

1,3-3-3,8-85-2,13-34-0,4-17-0,

Totals,157-780-5,115-653-4,37-152-0,5-22-0,

[/table]

To summarize:

● McCoy gained 69.8 percent of his yards (1,122) on either first-and-10-or-more or second-and-10-or-more — both good running downs, you might say.

● In those two situations, he averaged 5.7 yards a carry (196/1,122). In all others, he averaged 4.1 (118/485).

● He wasn’t much of a factor on third and fourth downs, where the game is often won. Totals: 42 carries, 174 yards, 0 touchdowns.

Even in a spread offense, against defenses less compact, Eagles coach Chip Kelly still picked his spots with McCoy. Nearly two-thirds of the time (205 of 314, or 65.3 percent, counting nine rushes on third-and-5 or longer) he called on him in circumstances favorable to a running back. Indeed, LeSean had more attempts on second-and-10-or-more (48) than on third and fourth downs combined (42). That’s how you average 5.1 yards a carry. As that old play caller, Sun Tzu, said, “The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.”

The Eagles had the best pass-run balance in the league, too: 508 passes, 500 rushes. But McCoy’s stats suggest Kelly ran the ball, as much as anything, to keep the defense honest — read: more vulnerable to the passing game — not to pound the opponent into submission (as in days of old).

Check out McCoy’s performance against the Redskins in Week 11. That might be the best illustration of what I’m talking about. He carried 20 times for 77 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-16 Philly win, but Washington almost totally shut him down. So how did Shady average nearly 4 yards an attempt? Answer: By taking handoffs on third-and-21, second-and-20, first-and-20, second-and-19, second-and-16, first-and-16 and second-and-10. On those seven runner-friendly plays, he gained 67 yards. On his other 13 he gained 10 — 27.7 inches a pop.

Read into this data what you will. To me, it’s just more evidence of the Marginalization of the Running Back. Especially when you consider that none of the last six rushing leaders even managed to win a playoff game — and three failed to make it to the postseason. The specifics:

HOW THE LAST SIX RUSHING CHAMPS FARED IN THE POSTSEASON

[table]

Season,Running back\, Team,Yards,Playoffs

2013,LeSean McCoy\, Eagles,1\,607,0-1

2012,Adrian Peterson\, Vikings,2\,097,0-1

2011,Maurice Jones-Drew\, Jaguars,1\,606,missed

2010,Arian Foster\, Texans,1\,616,missed

2009,Chris Johnson\, Titans,2\,006,missed

2008,Adrian Peterson\, Vikings,1\,760,0-1

[/table]

Sources: NFL gamebooks, pro-football-reference.com

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Josh Shaw’s whopper is an old football story

Football player suffers careless off-field injury. Football player wants to keep it from his coach. Football player goes to great lengths to cover it up.

Now there’s something that’s never happened before — especially in football, where players get hurt as a matter of course.

Reading about Josh Shaw’s travails at Southern Cal, I was reminded of a funny story once told me by Jack Ferrante, a receiver on the Philadelphia Eagles’ championship teams in the late ’40s. The Screen Shot 2014-08-29 at 2.54.18 PMEagles in those days held training camp in Saranac Lake, N.Y., not far from Lake Placid in the Adirondacks. They bunked in the Eagles Nest, an old lodge their owner, Alexis Thompson, had bought for his bobsledding activities as much as anything else.

Thompson was a competitive slider, and the lodge had an elevator “so that bobsleds could be lowered into the basement for summer storage.” (In an earlier incarnation, the Eagles Nest — then known as Keegan Cottage — had served as a tuberculosis sanitorium.)

“We used to walk about a block, block and a half, to a high school field where we practiced,” Ferrante said. “But [Thompson] had all kinds of facilities there. Downstairs he had a playroom, and upstairs he had a big living room where we ate and everything. And we all slept in this one dorm. Everybody slept in the same room in bunk beds. They used to play some dirty tricks on me. They used to put fish in my bed. And I’d jump out, not knowing what the heck was in there. But it was all in good fun.

“Sometimes we’d go down in the den and play ping pong — doubles, one paddle to a side — and we’d have a lot of fun with that. That’s how we spent most of our time. That and playing cards. It was a dead little town.”

How does all this relate to Josh Shaw, you ask? I’m getting there, I’m getting there.

Steve Van Buren, the Eagles’ famed running back, had a boat up there, and he and some of his teammates would occasionally go fishing (which is where the fish in Ferrante’s bed came from). Anyhow, one day “the boat got out of control,” Jack said, “and Wojie [Hall of Fame center Alex Wojciechowicz] got thrown out of the boat. He got hit in the face and, cheese and crackers, we couldn’t stop the boat because I had just filled the gas tank up. It just kept going and going and going. Thank God it just stopped.

“Wojie’s got this big gash and everything, and when we go back [to the lodge] we’re trying to keep him away from [coach] Greasy [Neale]. So at the next practice, on like the first play from scrimmage, Wojie pretends like he got hit, you know? And coach never knew what happened. If he’d ever found out, we wouldn’t have been able to go anywhere.”

Wherever he is, Alex Wojciechowicz is probably smiling right now at Shaw’s predicament and thinking: Been there, done that. Or maybe he’s smiling because he just slipped another fish in Ferrante’s bed.

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