Category Archives: Stats/Charts

A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign or trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets – Joe Namath’s team – have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

[table]

Year  Team (Record),Receivers\, Yards,Result

1984  Dolphins (14-2),Mark Clayton 1\,389\, Mark Duper 1\,306,Lost Super Bowl

1995  Lions (10-6),Herman Moore 1\,686\, Brett Perriman 1\,488,Wild Card

2000  Rams (10-6),Torry Holt 1\,635\, Isaac Bruce 1\,471,Wild Card

2000  Broncos (11-5),Rod Smith 1\,602\, Ed McCaffrey 1\,317,Wild Card

2002  Steelers (10-5-1),Hines Ward 1\,329\, Plaxico Burress 1\,325,Won Division

2005  Cardinals (5-11),Larry Fitzgerald 1\,409\, Anquan Boldin 1\,402,Missed Playoffs

2006  Colts (12-4),Marvin Harrison 1\,366\, Reggie Wayne 1\,310,Won Super Bowl

2011  Patriots (13-3),Wes Welker 1\,569\, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1\,327,Lost Super Bowl

[/table]

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high hopes in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because (a.) Wes missed the last three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout to throw to in Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13). The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed in the direction of their two 1,300-Yard Men.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback, Team(s),W-L,Pct

1969-79,Roger Staubach,Cowboys,9-0,1.000

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1,.917

2002-13,Michael Vick,Falcons\, Eagles,6-1,.857

2007-13,Jay Cutler,Broncos\, Bears,6-1,.857

1963-68,Frank Ryan,Browns, 5-1,.833

2008-13,Joe Flacco,Ravens,5-1,.833

[/table]

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback,Team (s),W-L-T,Pct

1983-98,John Elway,Broncos,12-4-0,.750

1992-10,Brett Favre,Packers\, Jets\, Vikings,12-6-0,.667

1961-78,Fran Tarkenton,Vikings\, Giants,11-6-1,.639

1998-13,Peyton Manning,Colts\, Broncos,11-4-0,.733

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1-0,.917

[/table]

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quality starts for quarterbacks

The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.

The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”

Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:

2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS

[table width=“300px”]

Quarterback\, Team,Quality Starts,

Peyton Manning\, Broncos,              15

Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              13

Matt Ryan\, Falcons,              12

Colin Kaepernick\, 49ers,              11

Tony Romo\, Cowboys,              11

Russell Wilson\, Seahawks,              11

Drew Brees\, Saints,              10

Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,              10

Matthew Stafford\, Lions,              10

[/table]

(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)

Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.

At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.

The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:

[table]

Year, League Avg,Quality Starts Leaders

2012,        83.8,Peyton Manning 14\, Aaron Rodgers 13\, Matt Ryan 13\, Russell Wilson 12

2011,        82.5,Tom Brady 14\, Drew Brees 14\, Rodgers 14\, Tony Romo 12\, Matt Stafford 12

2010,        82.2,Brady 14\, Joe Flacco 12\, Philip Rivers 12

2009,        81.2,Rivers 16\, Rodgers 15\, P. Manning 14\, Matt Schaub 14

2008,        81.5,Chad Pennington 12\, Rivers 12

2007,        80.9,Brady 13\, Romo 13\, David Garrard 12\, Matt Hasselbeck 12\, P. Manning 12

2006,        78.5,P. Manning 14\, Carson Palmer 13\, Brady 12\, Brees 12\, Rivers 12

2005,        78.2,Palmer 14\, Hasselbeck 13\, P. Manning 13\, Jake Delhomme 12\, Trent Green 12

2004,        80.9,P. Manning 15\, Daunte Culpepper 14\, Brees 12\, Green 12

2003,        76.6,Hasselbeck 13\, P. Manning 13\, Culpepper 12\, Steve McNair 12

2002,        78.6,Rich Gannon 13\, P. Manning 12\, Pennington 12

2001,        76.6,Gannon 14\, Jeff Garcia 14\, Brett Favre 12

2000,        76.2,Gannon 13\, Garcia 12\, Elvis Grbac 12\, P. Manning 12

[/table]

I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.

And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?

In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:

QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)

[table]

Year Quarterback\, Team,Quality Starts,Result (W-L-T)

2009 Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              16,Won division (13-3)

1992 Steve Young\, 49ers,              16,NFC finalist (14-2)

1984 Dan Marino\, Dolphins,              16,Super Bowl finalist (14-2)

1973 Fran Tarkenton\, Vikings,              14,Super Bowl finalist (12-2)

1960 Milt Plum\, Browns,              12,Missed playoffs (8-3-1)

[/table]

● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)

● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).

● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.

One more note:

● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.

Which brings us to . . .

MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS

[table width=”300px”]

Quarterback\,Team,Quality Starts

Philip Rivers\, Chargers,              62

Aaron Rodgers\, Packers,              60

Tom Brady\, Patriots,              59

Drew Brees\, Saints,              58

Peyton Manning\, Colts/Broncos,              53

[/table]

Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.

The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.

But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?

Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.

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Down by down with LeSean McCoy

Ever wonder what goes into being the NFL rushing champion? When exactly does he gain his yards? How is he used by the coaching staff?

Let’s find out by crunching the numbers for the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy, whose 1,607 yards last season gave him the title by a comfortable 268 over the Bears’ Matt Forte. As you’ll see, McCoy’s down-and-distance breakdown tells us much. (Note: The figures listed in the downs columns are attempts-yards-touchdowns.)

[table]

To Go,1st Down,2nd Down,3rd Down,4th Down,

11+,4-28-0,21-148-1,5-35-0,,

10,144-740-2,27-206-1,1-5-0,,

9,2-4-0,3-21-0,,,

8,2-7-0,13-53-0,,,

7,,8-25-0,1-5-0,,

6,,4-6-0,1-13-0,,

5,1-(-2)-0,7-37-0,1-10-0,,

4,,12-51-0,4-8-0,,

3,1-0-0,4-8-0,2-9-0,,

2,,8-13-0,9-33-0,1-5-0,

1,3-3-3,8-85-2,13-34-0,4-17-0,

Totals,157-780-5,115-653-4,37-152-0,5-22-0,

[/table]

To summarize:

● McCoy gained 69.8 percent of his yards (1,122) on either first-and-10-or-more or second-and-10-or-more — both good running downs, you might say.

● In those two situations, he averaged 5.7 yards a carry (196/1,122). In all others, he averaged 4.1 (118/485).

● He wasn’t much of a factor on third and fourth downs, where the game is often won. Totals: 42 carries, 174 yards, 0 touchdowns.

Even in a spread offense, against defenses less compact, Eagles coach Chip Kelly still picked his spots with McCoy. Nearly two-thirds of the time (205 of 314, or 65.3 percent, counting nine rushes on third-and-5 or longer) he called on him in circumstances favorable to a running back. Indeed, LeSean had more attempts on second-and-10-or-more (48) than on third and fourth downs combined (42). That’s how you average 5.1 yards a carry. As that old play caller, Sun Tzu, said, “The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.”

The Eagles had the best pass-run balance in the league, too: 508 passes, 500 rushes. But McCoy’s stats suggest Kelly ran the ball, as much as anything, to keep the defense honest — read: more vulnerable to the passing game — not to pound the opponent into submission (as in days of old).

Check out McCoy’s performance against the Redskins in Week 11. That might be the best illustration of what I’m talking about. He carried 20 times for 77 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-16 Philly win, but Washington almost totally shut him down. So how did Shady average nearly 4 yards an attempt? Answer: By taking handoffs on third-and-21, second-and-20, first-and-20, second-and-19, second-and-16, first-and-16 and second-and-10. On those seven runner-friendly plays, he gained 67 yards. On his other 13 he gained 10 — 27.7 inches a pop.

Read into this data what you will. To me, it’s just more evidence of the Marginalization of the Running Back. Especially when you consider that none of the last six rushing leaders even managed to win a playoff game — and three failed to make it to the postseason. The specifics:

HOW THE LAST SIX RUSHING CHAMPS FARED IN THE POSTSEASON

[table]

Season,Running back\, Team,Yards,Playoffs

2013,LeSean McCoy\, Eagles,1\,607,0-1

2012,Adrian Peterson\, Vikings,2\,097,0-1

2011,Maurice Jones-Drew\, Jaguars,1\,606,missed

2010,Arian Foster\, Texans,1\,616,missed

2009,Chris Johnson\, Titans,2\,006,missed

2008,Adrian Peterson\, Vikings,1\,760,0-1

[/table]

Sources: NFL gamebooks, pro-football-reference.com

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The shelf life of a multiple-championship coach

Hardly a day goes by that some Media Type doesn’t wonder — on radio, TV or in print — whether Tom Brady will win another Super Bowl. To which I reply: Never mind Brady. Will Bill Belichick win another Super Bowl? Coaches have an expiration date, too.

And the Man in the Grey Cotton Hoodie may have passed his. No coach, after all, has won the Lombardi Trophy later than his 18th season in an NFL head job (the Cowboys’ Tom Landry in 1977). Belichick is in his 20th — five with the Browns, 15 with the Patriots. So if he wins his fourth title, he’ll set a modern record for shelf life.

Yes, Tom Coughlin was 65 when his Giants took the championship in 2011, three years older than Belichick is now. And yes, that made him the oldest Super Bowl-winning coach. But it was “only” his 16th season as a head man. He’d have to capture a third title to top Landry.

And yes, Dick Vermeil was 63 when his Rams ran off with the Lombardi Trophy in 1999, a year older than Belichick is now. But because of a lengthy sabbatical, it was only his 10th season as a head coach. (Age, I’m convinced, is less important than the Number of Years in a Head Job — the pro football equivalent of dog years.)

Here’s a chart I put together of the coaches who’ve won multiple championships in the Super Bowl era. It’s followed by a second chart of those who won multiple championships before the Super Bowl. Weeb Ewbank straddles the two periods, but I included him in the first group because, well, when you’ve coached Joe Namath, you have to be considered a modern coach. How many quarterbacks have been more “mod” than Broadway Joe?

Anyway, these are Belichick’s true peers, more so than one-timers like Tony Dungy (’06 Colts), Bill Cowher (’05 Steelers) and Hank Stram (’69 Chiefs), among others.

SUPER BOWL ERA

[table]

Coach,Team(s),Years,Titles,1st Title,Last Title,Span (Seasons)

Tom Coughlin,Jaguars\, Giants,18,2,12th season,16th season,5 (2007-11)

Bill Belichick,Browns\, Patriots,20,3,7th season,10th season,4 (2001-04)

Mike Shanahan,Broncos\, 2 others,20,2,5th season,6th season,2 (1997-98)

George Seifert,49ers\, Panthers,11,2,1st season,6th season,6 (1989-94)

Jimmy Johnson,Cowboys\, Dolphins,   9,2,4th season,5th season,2 (1992-93)

Joe Gibbs,Redskins,16,3,2nd season,11th season,10 (1982-91)

Bill Parcells,Giants\, 3 others,19,2,4th season,8th season,5 (1986-90)

Bill Walsh,49ers,10,3,3rd season,10th season,8 (1981-88)

Tom Flores,Raiders\, Seahawks,12,2,2nd season,5th season,4 (1980-83)

Chuck Noll,Steelers,23,4,6th season,11th season,6 (1974-79)

Tom Landry,Cowboys,29,2,12th season,18th season,7 (1971-77)

Don Shula,Colts\, Dolphins,33,3,6th season,11th season,6 (1968-73)

Weeb Ewbank,Colts\, Jets,20,3,5th season,15th season,11 (1958-68)

Vince Lombardi,Packers\, Redskins,10,5,3rd season,9th season,7 (1961-67)

[/table]

One of the things that’s interesting about this chart is the span of seasons in which these coaches won titles. Belichick has one of the shorter ones — four (from 2001 through ’04). Only two guys have reached double digits: Ewbank (11, from the ’58 Colts to the ’68 Jets) and Gibbs (10, from the ’82 to the ’91 Redskins).

None of these 14 coaches, though, went a decade between championships. (Ewbank also won in ’59 with the Colts, and Joe also won in ’87 with the Redskins.) That’s what Belichick is trying to do — and if he succeeds, he’ll be the first in the Super Bowl era to pull it off.

It was different in the old days. The Bears’ George Halas, of course, owned the franchise, and other coaches, like Packers founder Curly Lambeau, practically had tenure. So in the next chart you see longer spans — 43 seasons for Halas (though he coached in “only” 35 of them), 20 for Jimmy Conzelman (though he coached in the NFL in only eight of them, leaving to take jobs in college ball and baseball) and 16 for Lambeau. (The thing about Conzelman is, he won titles with the single-wing Providence Steam Roller in 1928 and the T-formation Chicago Cardinals in ’47. That’s staying power. That’s adaptability.)

PRE-SUPER BOWL

[table]

Coach,Team(s),Years,Titles,1st Title,Last Title,Span (Seasons)

George Halas,Bears (Staleys),40,6,2nd season,36th season,43 (1921-63)

Paul Brown (+ AAC),Browns\, Bengals,25,7,1st season,10th season,10 (1946-55)

Paul Brown (NFL only),Browns\, Bengals,21,3,1st season,6th season,6 (1950-55)

Buddy Parker,Lions\, 2 others,15,2,3rd season,4th season,2 (1952-53)

Greasy Neale,Eagles,10,2,8th season,9th season,2 (1948-49)

Jimmy Conzelman,Cards\, 4 others,15,2,7th season,14th season,20 (1928-47)

Curly Lambeau,Packers\, 2 others,33,6,9th season,24th season,16 (1929-44)

Ray Flaherty,Redskins,7,2,2nd season,7th season,6 (1937-42)

Steve Owen,Giants,23,2,4th season,8th season,5 (1934-38)

Guy Chamberlin,Canton\, 2 others,6,4,1st season,5th season,5 (1922-26)

[/table]

But then, this is Bill Belichick we’re talking about, the winningest coach of his time. He’s returned twice to the Super Bowl in recent years and come up empty but, being Bill, may yet get another shot. The odds are against him, though, and sometimes those can be as hard to overcome as a miracle David Tyree catch in the final seconds.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Matthew Stafford: No. 5 all time

While the Lions were unraveling again last season, Matthew Stafford broke into the Top 5 in a (deservedly) obscure category. He now has the fifth-highest passer rating in NFL history among quarterbacks with losing records as starters (minimum: 2,000 attempts).

In so doing, Stafford bumped a grateful Neil Lomax, who posted a 82.7 rating while going 47-52-2 in the regular season with the Cardinals from 1981 through ’88.

Note that all five quarterbacks listed below played (or are still playing) in the 2000s. No surprise there. With the rules increasingly tilted toward the offense, ratings keep going up and up. As a result, the league has never had losing QBs who’ve thrown the ball more proficiently. (How’s that for a distinction?)

TOP 5 CAREER RATINGS FOR QBS WITH LOSING RECORDS AS STARTERS

[table]Rating,Quarterback,Teams,Years,Record,Playoffs,Pro Bowls

87.8,Daunte Culpepper,Vikings\, 3 others,1999-2009,41-59\, .410, 2-2\, .500,3

85.9,Carson Palmer,Bengals\, 2 others,2004-2013,64-73\, .467,0-2\, .000,2

86.0,Trent Green,Chiefs\, 3 others,1997-2008,56-57\, .496,0-2\, .000,2

84.4,Marc Bulger,Rams,2002-2009,41-54\, .432,1-2\, .333,2

83.1,Matthew Stafford,Lions,2009-2013,24-37\, .393,0-1\, .000,0

[/table]

(Minimum: 2,000 attempts.)

Interesting, no? The first four played in multiple Pro Bowls, but only two won a playoff game. (Combined postseason record, Stafford included: 3-9.)

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Heck, Warren Moon got voted into the Hall of Fame despite being sub-.500 as a starter (105-108, playoffs included). The same goes for Sonny Jurgensen (69-73-7). And the Hall is better for it. It shouldn’t just be a collection of Guys Who Were Fortunate Enough To Play For Winning Teams. (I’ll always remember Moon, first and foremost, as the quarterback whose defense couldn’t hold a 35-3 second-half lead.)

Let’s hope Stafford chalks up a few more W’s down the road and doesn’t turn into another Jeff George (46-78, .371, 1-2, 80.4). That would be a shame for everybody but Jeff, who’s probably tired of being singled out like this and would love some company.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, NFL.com

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Chasing Jerry Rice

Someday, somebody’s going to break Jerry Rice’s receiving records. We know this because records are made to be broken, right? At least, that’s what we keep hearing.

Rice’s career mark of 22,895 receiving yards looks particularly daunting — inasmuch as he has almost 7,000 more than the next guy, Terrell Owens (15,934). What do you suppose it would take to surpass that Ginormous Number? Well, here’s one way of looking at it:

Say a receiver was 21 when he came into the NFL. And say, at every age, he matched the top yardage total of all time for that age. How long would it be before he blew by Jerry? You’ll find the startling answer below.

(Keep in mind: In some instances, depending on the player’s birthdate, a “year” straddles two seasons. That is, he could be a certain age for the last part of one season and the first part of the next.)

WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO BREAK JERRY RICE’S CAREER YARDAGE RECORD

[table]

Age,Receiver,Team\, Year(s),Yards

21,Randy Moss,Vikings\, 1998,1\,313

22,Josh Gordon,Browns\, 2013,1\,646

23,David Boston,Cardinals\, 2001,1\,598

24,Torry Holt,Rams\, 2000,1\,635

25,Victor Cruz,Giants\, 2011-12,1\,665

26,Calvin Johnson,Lions\, 2011-12,1\,933

27,Calvin Johnson,Lions\, 2012-13,1\,863

28,Jerry Rice,49ers\, 1990-91,1\,598

29,Michael Irvin,Cowboys\, 1995,1\,603

30,Marvin Harrison,Colts\, 2002,1\,722

31,Jerry Rice,49ers\, 1993-94,1\,714

32,Jerry Rice,49ers\, 1994-95,1\,533

33,Jerry Rice,49ers\, 1995-96,1\,749

34,Cris Carter,Vikings\, 1999-00,1\,388

Total,,,22\,960

[/table]

That’s all. It would just take 14 seasons — producing, in each of them, at the highest level in history — to overtake Rice. By 65 yards. I can hardly wait to see someone try.

Something else learned from this exercise: There have been some phenomenal performances in recent years by receivers other than Calvin Johnson. As you can see, Josh Gordon is now the leader at 22. The same goes for Victor Cruz at 25. Four things you can’t see:

● Last season, Chargers rookie Keenan Allen had 1,046 receiving yards. That’s the second most all time for a 21-year-old behind Moss.

● The Cowboys’ Dez Bryant had 1,599 yards at 24 (which for him spanned parts of the 2012 and ’13 seasons). That’s No. 2 behind Holt.

● The Bears’ Brandon Marshall (1,508 in 2012) is second in the 28 group behind Rice, and the Texans’ Andre Johnson (1,598 in 2012) is second in the 31 group, also behind Rice.

● Finally, even if erstwhile Patriot Aaron Hernandez is convicted of murder and never plays pro football again, he’ll go down in the books — for now, anyway — as having the most receiving yards in NFL history at the age of 20 (388 in 2010). So he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Jamaal Charles: Mr. 5.58

Through six NFL seasons, one of which he essentially missed because of a knee injury, Jamaal Charles’ per-carry average stands at 5.58. This just happens to be the all-time record for a running back with 1,000 or more attempts. Whether the Chiefs Pro Bowler can stay at this level, or even close to it, remains to be seen, but it’s a significant accomplishment regardless. After all, it’s hard enough to average 5 yards for a single year, never mind over a six-year stretch. Tony Dorsett, a breakaway back like Charles, never did it (high: 4.84 as a rookie in 1977). Eric Dickerson, another speed guy, did it just once.

Granted, there are many ways to measure a running back, and yards per carry probably isn’t as telling as some others. But as Hall of Famer Joe Perry once told me, “I always thought what mattered most was what you did with the ball when you got it” — and Joe took great pride in his 4.82 career mark (5.04 if you count his two years in the rival All-America Conference). So a little respect, please, for rushing average, one of the redheaded stepchildren of football stats.

At the moment, only one back in NFL history has finished his career with 1,000 carries and a 5-yard average: Jim Brown. If you include guys who only cleared the 750- or 500-carry threshold, a few more make the list — but just a few.

1,000 CARRIES, 5-YARD AVERAGE, CAREER

[table]

Running back\, Team(s),Years,Att,Yds,Avg

Jamaal Charles*\, Chiefs,2008-13,1\,043,5\,823,5.58

Jim Brown\, Browns,1957-65,2\,359,12\,312,5.22

[/table]

750 CARRIES, 5-YARD AVERAGE, CAREER

[table]

Running back\, Team(s),Years,Att,Yds,Avg

Mercury Morris\, Dolphins/Chargers,1969-76,804,4\,133,5.14

Gale Sayers\, Bears,1965-71,991,4\,956,5.00

[/table]

500 CARRIES, 5-YARD AVERAGE, CAREER

[table]

Running back\, Team(s),Years,Att,Yds,Avg

Bo jackson\, Raiders,1987-90,515,2\,782,5.40

Bobby Mitchell\, Browns/Redskins,1958-68,513,2\,735,5.33

Dan Towler\, Rams,1950-55,672,3\,493,5.20

C.J. Spiller*\, Bills,2010-13,590,3\,021,5.12

Tommy Wilson\, Rams/Browns/Vikings,1956-63,508,2\,553,5.03

[/table]

*active

An awfully small club, isn’t it? And I’m fudging a bit on Mitchell, who switched to receiver with the Redskins and might not have had 500 carries as an Actual Running Back. So if you want to throw him out, go ahead. That would get us down to eight backs, two of them active.

Most of the eight are readily identifiable. Brown and Sayers (as well as Mitchell) are Hall of Famers. Bo Jackson was one of the greatest athletes of the 20th century. And Morris played on two title teams with the Dolphins, including the 17-0 bunch. As for the others, Towler was a terrific fullback who led the league in rushing in 1952, and Wilson at one time held the NFL record for rushing yards in a game (223 vs. the Packers in ’56, his rookie season). Charles and Spiller, I suspect, you’re well acquainted with.

Per-carry averages tend to decline as a player ages (along with everything else, I might add). The longer your career, the less likely you are to average 5 yards. Lenny Moore, for instance, was averaging 5.01 after 10 seasons (964 attempts) but tailed off to 4.84. Hugh McElhenny was at 4.99 through 1,002 carries but finished at 4.70. More recently, the Panthers’ DeAngelo Williams was at 5.04 when he hit 1,000 . . . but has since dropped to 4.84. It makes you appreciate Tiki Barber, who averaged 5.15 in his final two seasons with the Giants at the ages of 30 and 31.

The record book says Barry Sanders averaged 5.0 for his illustrious Lions career, but that’s rounded up. His real average was 4.9866. Sorry, but we don’t round up here at Pro Football Daly, not for something as important as this. Five-Point-O is Five-Point-O, not Four-Point-Nine-Eight-Six-Six.

And how’s this for heartbreak? Sanders was averaging 5 going into his last NFL game in 1998 — 5.0043 to be precise. Alas, he was held to 41 yards in 19 attempts by Ray Lewis and Co., and his average fell to the aforementioned 4.9866. In fact, you can pinpoint the play he went under 5 to stay: his fourth carry of the day, a third-and-6 from the Detroit 41, when Ravens defensive end Keith Washington nailed him for a 3-yard loss. (Though he did rally with back-to-back gains of 31 and 6 in the third quarter to get to 4.9951.)

In case you’re curious, .9866 = 35.5 inches. In other words, Sanders came up half an inch short, per carry, of the Five-Point-O Club. (And if football is a “game of inches,” it’s even more a game of half-inches.) Half an inch, by the way, translates into 41 yards (spread over 3,062 attempts).

Going into this season, the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson is sitting at 4.98, so he also has a chance to join the group. The question is whether, at 29, his rushing average will head north or south. His 4.54 per carry a year ago was the second-lowest of his career.

Whatever your opinion of Charles, there’s no denying he’s putting together a nice resumé. Last season he became just the sixth back — NFL or AFL — to score 12 rushing and 6 receiving touchdowns in a season. The company he keeps:

12 RUSHING AND 6 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS IN A SEASON

[table]

Year,Running Back\, Team,Rush TD,Rec TD

2013,Jamaal Charles\, Chiefs,12,7

2001,Marshall Faulk\, Rams,12,9

2000,Marshall Faulk\, Rams,18,8

1975,Chuck Foreman\, Vikings,13,9

1975,O.J. Simpson\, Bills,16,7

1965,Gale Sayers\, Bears,14,6

1962,Abner Haynes\, Texans (AFL),13,6

[/table]

That’s twice now I’ve mentioned Charles in the same breath with Sayers. What do you suppose it means?

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Pro Football Chronicle

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The incredible shrinking running back

Much was made during the offseason about the running back’s diminished importance in today’s pass-first offenses. For the second year in a row — an NFL first — no runner was taken in Round 1 of the draft. So I thought I’d work up some charts that showed exactly why.

As you can see below, 10 of the 14 Super Bowl winners in the 2000s have had a quarterback who ranked in the Top 10 in the league in passer rating, but only three have had a back that ranked in the Top 10 in rushing (one of them being the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch last year).

For that matter, just four of the champs had a Top 10 receiver, and five of them (including Seattle) didn’t even have a 1,000-yard guy. It’s more about Spreading the Ball Around now. (So how come nobody’s talking about the Incredible Shrinking Wideout?)

It wasn’t like this in the early years of the free agency (1993-99). Elite runners and elite receivers were very much a part of winning titles. Five of the seven championship clubs had Top 10 rushers and just as many had Top 10 pass-catchers. The specifics:

[table]

Year,Champion,QB\, Rating (Rank),Top Rusher\, Yds (Rank),Top Receiver\, Yds (Rank)

2013,Seahawks,Russell Wilson\, 101.2 (7),Marshawn Lynch\, 1\,257 (6),Golden Tate\, 898 (31)

2012,Ravens,Joe Flacco\, 87.7 (14),Ray Rice\, 1\,143 (11),Anquan Boldin\, 921 (27)

2011,Giants,Eli Manning\, 92.9 (7),Ahmad Bradshaw\, 659 (29),Victor Cruz\, 1\,536 (3)

2010,Packers,Aaron Rodgers\, 101.2 (3),Brandon Jackson\, 703 (33),Greg Jennings\, 1\,265 (4)

2009,Saints,Drew Brees\, 109.6 (1),Pierre Thomas\, 793 (T24),Marques Colston\, 1\,074 (18)

2008,Steelers,B.Roethlisberger\, 80.1 (24),Willie Parker\, 791 (26),Hines Ward\, 1\,043 (15)

2007,Giants,Eli Manning\, 73.9 (25),B. Jacobs\, 1\,009 (T15),Plaxico Burress\, 1\,025 (21)

2006,Colts,P. Manning\, 101.0 (1),Joseph Addai\, 1\,081 (18),Marvin Harrison\, 1\,366 (2)

2005,Steelers,B.Roethlisberger\, 98.6 (3),Willie Parker\, 1\,202 (12),Hines Ward\, 975 (22)

2004,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 92.9 (9),Corey Dillon\, 1\,635 (3),David Givens\, 874 (32)

2003,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 85.9 (10),Antowain Smith\, 642 (30),Deion Branch\, 803 (32)

2002,Bucs,Brad Johnson\, 92.9 (3),Michael Pittman\, 718 (32),K. Johnson\, 1\,088 (16)

2001,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 86.5 (6),Antowain Smith\, 1\,157 (12),Troy Brown\, 1\,199 (10)

2000,Ravens,Trent Dilfer\, 76.6 (21),Jamal Lewis\, 1\,364 (7), Shannon Sharpe\, 810 (32)

[/table]

Now look at the 1993-to-1999 period:

[table]

Year,Champion,QB\, Rating (Rank),Top Rusher\, Yards (Rank),Top Receiver\, Yards (Rank)

1999,Rams,Kurt Warner\, 109.2 (1),Marshall Faulk\, 1\,381 (5),Isaac Bruce\, 1\,165 (12)

1998,Broncos,John Elway\, 93.0 (5),Terrell Davis\, 2\,008 (1),Rod Smith\, 1\,222 (4)

1997,Broncos,John Elway\, 87.5 (7),Terrell Davis\, 1\,750 (2),Rod Smith\, 1\,180 (T8)

1996,Packers,Brett Favre\, 95.8 (2),Edgar Bennett\, 899 (14),Antonio Freeman\, 933 (24)

1995,Cowboys,Troy Aikman\, 93.6 (3),Emmitt Smith\, 1\,773 (1),Michael Irvin\, 1\,603 (4)

1994,49ers,Steve Young\, 112.8 (1),Ricky Watters\, 877 (15),Jerry Rice\, 1\,499 (1)

1993,Cowboys,Troy Aikman\, 99.0 (2),Emmitt Smith\, 1\,486 (1),Michael Irvin\, 1\,330 (2)

[/table]

This gives us the following breakdown:

[table width=”400px”]

Period (Seasons),Top 10 QBs,Top 10 RBs,Top 10 Receivers

2000-13 (14),10,3,4

1993-99 (7),7,5,5

[/table]

Another indication of the position’s decline: None of the Top 10 postseasons by a Super Bowl-winning running back have come in this century. The party pretty much ended with the Broncos’ Terrell Davis in 1997 and ’98.

[table]

Year,RB\, Team,Games,Yards,Per Game

1998,Terrell Davis\, Broncos,3,468,156.0

1983,Marcus Allen\, Raiders,3,466,155.3

1982,John Riggins\, Redskins,4,610,152.5

1997,Terrell Davis\, Broncos,4,581,145.3

1974,Franco Harris\, Steelers,3,343,114.3

1987,Timmy Smith\, Redskins,3,342,114.0

1992,Emmitt Smith\, Cowboys,3,336,112.0

1973,Larry Csonka\, Dolphins,3,333,111.0

1975,Franco Harris\, Steelers,3,314,104.7

1986,Joe Morris\, Giants,3,313,104.3

[/table]

Top three postseasons by running backs on Super Bowl losers: Thurman Thomas with the 1990 Bills (3/309/130), Frank Gore with the 2012 49ers (3/319/106.3) and Marshall Faulk with the 2001 Rams (3/317/105.7).

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, nfl.com

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James Wilder’s unbreakable(?) record

Thirty years is a long time for an NFL record to last. Eric Dickerson’s season rushing record of 2,105 yards, for instance, will turn 30 in 2014 — if the fates and Adrian Peterson permit it. (Though some might say O.J. Simpson’s 2,003 yards in 14 games in 1973, a 143.1-yard average, is a greater feat than Dickerson’s 131.6-yard average in 16 games.)

But that’s a blog for another day. The blog for this day is that Dickerson’s record, which has survived challenges from the likes of AP (2,097), Jamal Lewis (2,066), Barry Sanders (2,053), Terrell Davis (2,008) and Chris Johnson (2,006) in the past two decades, might not have as much staying power as another, less celebrated mark set in 1984: James Wilder’s 492 touches for the Bucs.

Many fans probably feel about touches the way Paul Reiser’s character felt about “nuance” in Diner: It’s not really a Football Word, not like block or tackle or sack. It’s a tad too, well, touchy-feely.

What 492 touches — in this case, 407 rushes and 85 receptions — reflect as much as anything is endurance, the ability to just take it. You’d think that would make the mark revered, this being a tough-guy game and all. But I get the feeling it’s thought of in the same vein as Joey Chestnut scarfing down 69 hot dogs at Coney Island. You just never hear football people talk about it.

Wilder did a lot with those touches, too. He finished third in the league in rushing (1,544), second in yards from scrimmage (2,229, the third-highest total in NFL history up to then) and second among running backs in receiving yards (685). It was, by any measure, a monster year. Unfortunately, his Tampa Bay team wasn’t very good — 6-10 — which helps explain, no doubt, why his accomplishment has been overlooked.

(He did have the benefit, though, of playing for John McKay, a coach who never worried much about putting mileage on his backs. McKay liked to joke that “the ball’s not heavy” — leaving out the fact that the defenders slamming into his ball carriers often were.)

To put Wilder’s season in perspective:

● His 492 touches broke Dickerson’s record, set the year before, by 51 — almost two games’ worth.

● He still holds the mark by 35.

● Only six quarterbacks that season had as many pass attempts as Wilder did touches — Dan Marino (564), Neil Lomax (560), Phil Simms (533), Steve DeBerg (509), Dan Fouts (507), Paul McDonald (493). (In pass-crazed 2013, 16 QBs did.)

Why does Wilder’s record endure — without anybody taking a serious run at it? For one thing, the game has changed. Teams run the ball less now and aren’t as likely to have one back carry as much of the load as James and his contemporaries did. Running Back by Committee is the preferred approach.

Beyond that, though, Wilder had the kind of year that virtually assured his mark would have legs — if not eternal life. Consider: His 407 rushes were an NFL record, and his 85 catches were second all time for a back. Here are the Top 5 in those departments through the ’84 season:

[table]

Year  Running back\, team,Rushes,Year  Running back\, team,Catches

1984  James Wilder\, Bucs,407,1978  Rickey Young\, Vikings,88

1983  Eric Dickerson\, Rams,390,1984  James Wilder\, Bucs,85

1984  Walter Payton\, Bears,384,1983  Ted Brown\, Vikings,83

1984  Eric Dickerson\, Rams,379,1980  Earl Cooper\, 49ers,83

1981  George Rogers\, Saints,378,1979  Joe Washington\, Colts,82

[/table]

Finally, a chart showing the Top 5 in touches before Wilder’s career year (left) and today:

[table]

Year  Running back\, team,Touches,Year  Running back\, team,Touches

1983  Eric Dickerson\, Rams,441,1984  James Wilder\, Bucs,492

1979  Walter Payton\, Bears,400,2006  Larry Johnson\, Chiefs,457

1981  Earl Campbell\, Oilers,397,2000  Eddie George\, Titans,453

1981  George Rogers\, Saints,394,2002  LaDainian Tomlinson\, Chargers,451

1983  William Andrews\, Falcons, 390,2000  Edgerrin James\, Colts,450

[/table]

Three decades later, Wilder still has the third-most rushing attempts in a season, trailing only Johnson (416, 2006) and Jamal Anderson (410 with the ’98 Falcons). He’s also still in the Top 20 for receptions by a running back in a season (16th, with Larry Centers’ 101 for the ’95 Cardinals leading the way).

Thirty years from now, it’s entirely possible Wilder’s record will still be standing. Let’s just hope it’s a little more appreciated by then. It deserves to be.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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