Category Archives: Stats/Charts

The Patriots’ run

We all know how good the Patriots have been since Bill Belichick turned the quarterbacking over to Tom Brady in 2001: three championships, five Super Bowls, eight AFC title games. Enough for ya? And this is in an era, mind you, when such sustained excellence is supposed to be more difficult because of free-agent flight. It’s one of the best runs the NFL has seen.

But where exactly does it rank? Right near the top if you go by this chart. I looked at the best 13-year stretches in league history, based on won-loss record — figuring the championships would take care of themselves (which they mostly did). The Pats’ .752 winning percentage, playoffs included, is second only to the .772 compiled by the 1932-44 Bears, George Halas’ famed Monsters of the Midway.

Only one team on the list didn’t win multiple titles: the forever-falling-short 1967-79 Rams. Other than that, there should be few surprises.

Be advised: In some cases, a club was dominant for an even longer period and had more than one great 13-year run. The Cowboys, for example, were a machine from 1966 to ’85, with eight different 13-year stretches in which they won more than 70 percent of their games. In these overlapping instances, I took the best 13 years, reasoning that we were talking about many of the same players (and wanting to avoid duplication). Or to put it another way: only one to a customer.

Also, I’ve listed the most significant coaches and quarterbacks for each team, not every last one. (So, apologies to Tommy Prothro and Matt Cassel, among others.)

Some will say the championships are all that matter, and certainly they’re what matter most. But every week we hear a coach say “how hard it is to win a game” in the NFL. These clubs did that historically well.

THE COMPANY THE 2001-13 PATRIOTS KEEP

[table]

Seasons,Team (Titles),Coaches,Quarterbacks,W-L-T,Pct

1932-44,Bears (5),Jones/Halas,Sid Luckman,116-30-12,.772

2001-13,Patriots (3),Bill Belichick,Tom Brady,176-58-0,.752

1984-96,49ers (4),Walsh/Seifert,Montana/Young,172-58-1,.747

1965-77,Raiders (1+1),Rauch/Madden,Lamonica/Stabler,146-47-9,.745

1968-80,Cowboys (2),Tom Landry,Roger Staubach,156-57-1,.731

1929-41,Packers (5),Curly Lambeau,Herber/Isbell,116-42-6,.726

1958-70,Colts (3 + 1),Ewbank/Shula,Unitas/Morrall,128-53-5,.702

1950-62,Browns (3),Paul Brown,Otto Graham,115-49-5,.695

1967-79,Rams (0),Allen/Knox,Roman Gabriel,136-58-7,.694

1972-84,Steelers (4),Chuck Noll,Terry Bradshaw,145-65-1,.690

[/table]

Note: the ’67 Raiders and ’68 Colts won the league championship but lost the Super Bowl. Thus the “+1.”)

Now . . . if you threw in the Browns’ four seasons in the All-America Conference, before they joined the NFL, you’d have to move them up to No. 1. From 1946 to ’58 they were 137-34-5, a .793 winning percentage. But that’s a judgment call. The AAC didn’t offer them much competition, as their 52-4-3 record in the league attests.

Finally, the Vince Lombardi Packers just missed making the list, topping out at .673 for their best 13 years (1960-72). Of course, during the nine seasons Vince coached them (1959-67) they were even better, posting a 98-30-4 record and a .758 winning percentage.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book

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Putting a magnifying glass on Points Allowed

The fewer points an NFL team allows in a game, the better its chances to win, right? Not necessarily. And believe me, I’m as stunned by that revelation as you are.

Just out of curiosity one day, I went to my favorite research site, pro-football-reference.com, and started wearing out the Play Index. I wanted to know exactly how often a club won when it gave up a specific number of points. Not something nebulous like “17 or less,” but 2 points, 3 points . . . all the way up to 50. (For the record, nobody has won allowing more than 48 points.)

The results caught me off guard. In my statistical naiveté, I envisioned a steadily descending line graph from 2 to 50, but that’s not what I got at all. No, I got plenty of ups and downs, some of which could be attributed to small sample size — how often does a team allow 18 points? — but not all.

My findings — I looked at regular-season games since the 1970 merger — are at the bottom. These are the bullet points:

● Teams have won more often when they’ve given up 14 points (.814) than when the’ve given up 9 (.794). Likewise:

21 (.564) vs. 16 (.520)

28 (.316) vs. 23 (.299)

32 (.225) vs. 26 (.206)

39 (.115) vs. 34 (.110)

48 (.055) vs. 37 (.052)

There you have it, folks. Conclusive evidence that it’s not always in a club’s best interest to “Hold that line!”

● This is why the whole “when a team allows 17 points or less” business (or 21 points or whatever) is misleading. The “or less” skews it, because lower point totals have really high winning percentages. Consider:

17 points or less: .789 (8,606 games/6,761-1,787-58 W-L-T)

21 points or less: .719 (11,311/8,097-3,138-76)

But . . .  exactly 17 points = a .625 winning percentage (.164 lower than “17 points or less”) and exactly 21 points = .564 (.155 lower than “21 points or less”). Big differences.

● The highest point total that would still give you a 50-50 chance to win: 21 (.564). FYI: At 19 (.442) and 20 (.465) the odds are still against you.

A 1-in-3 chance: 25 (.351).

A 1-in-4 chance: 28 (.316).

A 1-in-5 chance: 32 (.225).

A 1-in-10 chance: 39 (.115).

● In some cases, you wonder whether what’s most important isn’t the points but the number of scores you allow. For instance, 16 points is probably four scores (a touchdown and three field goals), while 21 is probably three (touchdowns). Does that help explain why teams that give up 21 points win more often than those that give up 16? Do four scoring drives tend to consume more of the clock than three, giving the opponent less time of possession (and thus, less opportunity to score itself)?

Or how about this: Does allowing 21 points suggest the opposition might have missed a field goal try — since it’s rare a team doesn’t have at least one during a game? Missed field goal tries can cause major momentum swings, almost like turnovers. I’m just spitballing here. Heck, maybe it’s a quantitative thing: four scores amount to more “negative feedback” than three, regardless of their point value. Whatever the explanation, it’s fascinating. You wouldn’t think the reason would be sample size, because the total games aren’t dramatically different — 688 (16) vs. 899 (21).

You could raise the same questions for 28 (.316) and 23 (.299) — or: four TDs (usually) vs. two TDs and three field goals.

Anyway, it’s fun to speculate about. Maybe there’s a mathematical genius out there — or a psychiatrist — who can sort all this out for us. (I think I’ve already established I’m not that guy.)

The raw data, in case you’re interested:

[table width=”300 px”]

Pts,Win Pct,Games,W-L-T,

0,1.000,447,447-0-0,

2,1.000,7,7-0-0,

3,.989,545,539-6-0,

5,.923,13,12-1-0,

6,.936,439,409-26-4,

7,.962,879,844-31-4,

8,.929,28,26-2-0,

9,.794,286,227-59-0,

10,.869,1\,230,1\,060-152-18,

11,.818,33,27-6-0,

12,.706,177,125-52-0,

13,.720,1\,065,762-293-10,

14,.814,1\,089,884-201-4,

15,.580,150,87-63-0,

16,.520,688,356-328-4,

17,.625,1\,530,947-567-14,

18,.548,84,46-38-0,

19,.442,394,174-220-0,

20,.465,1\,328,611-703-14,

21,.564,899,505-390-4,

22,.438,217,95-122-0,

23,.299,810,239-565-6,

24,.371,1\,267,469-796-2,

25,.351,114,40-74-0,

26,.206,360,73-285-2,

27,.241,990,238-750-2,

28,.316,630,198-430-2,

29,.179,156,28-128-0,

30,.124,490,61-429-0,

31,.185,831,153-676-2,

32,.225,71,16-55-0,

33,.124,194,24-170-0,

34,.110,565,61-502-2,

35,.133,309,40-267-2,

36,.140,86,12-74-0,

37,.052,251,13-238-0,

38,.069,360,25-335-0,

39,.115,26,3-23-0,

40,.025,79,2-77-0,

41,.060,199,12-187-0,

42,.015,134,2-132-0,

43,.000,29,0-29-0,

44,.012,84,1-83-0,

45,.016,124,2-122-0,

46,.000,9,0-9-0,

47,.040,25,1-24-0,

48,.055,55,3-52-0,

49,.000,37,0-37-0,

50,.000,12,0-12-0,

[/table]

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The rich getting richer (usually, at least)

One of the neater tricks in pro football is to win the championship (hard enough), then double your pleasure by selecting a Hall of Famer in the next draft (harder still, especially if you’re picking last).

It’s happened just 10 times in NFL history, most recently in 1993-94. (The player involved was admitted to Canton last year. I’ll let you guess who.)

As you’ll see, seven of the 10 teams won another title within five years. The other three messed up — royally. One cut its future Hall of Famer (who went on to win a Super Bowl with the Jets), another traded him (after which he won five championships with the Packers) and the third failed to sign him (whereupon he won an AFL crown with the Chargers).

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a club to pull this off again. It could be another decade or two, considering the paucity of candidates.

Note: I’m not including the ’49 Eagles or the ’50 Browns. Yes, they both came away from the next draft with a Hall of Famer, but it was a coach (Bud Grant for Philadelphia and Don Shula for Cleveland).

NFL CHAMPIONS WHO SELECTED A HALL OF FAMER IN THE NEXT DRAFT

[table]

Year,Champs,Hall of Fame Pick (Round),Result

1948,Eagles,LB Chuck Bednarik (1),Won titles in ’49 and ’60

1952,Lions,LB Joe Schmidt (7),Won title games in ’53 and ’57\, lost in ’54

1955,Browns,DE Willie Davis (15),DNP until ’58\, traded to Packers in ’60

1956,Giants,WR Don Maynard (9),Lost title game in ’58\, went to AFL’s Jets

1959,Colts,OT Ron Mix (1),Signed with AFL’s Chargers

1962,Packers,LB Dave Robinson (1),Won titles in ’65\, ’66 and ’67

1980,Raiders,DE Howie Long (2),Won Super Bowl in ’83

1982,Redskins,CB Darrell Green (1),Won Super Bowls in ’87 and ’91\, lost in ’83

1984,49ers,WR Jerry Rice (1),Won Super Bowls in ’88\, ’89 and ’94

1993,Cowboys,OG Larry Allen (2),Won Super Bowl in ’95

[/table]

There were also three league champions — two from the AFL, one from the NFL — who lost the Super Bowl and added a Hall of Famer in the next draft (kind of as a consolation prize). These were:

[table]

Year,Champs,Hall of Fame Pick (Round),Result

1966,Chiefs,LB Willie Lanier (2),Won Super Bowl in ’69

1967,Raiders,OT Art Shell (3),Won Super Bowls in ’76 and ’80

1968,Colts,LB Ted Hendricks (2),Won Super Bowl in ’70

[/table]

Finally, here are some Super Bowl champions of more recent vintage who may eventually join this list. (Note the word “may.”)

[table]

Year,Champs,Possible HOF-er in next draft (Round),Result

1996,Packers,FS Darren Sharper (2),Lost Super Bowl in ’97

2003,Patriots,NT Vince Wilfork (1),Won Super Bowl in ’04\, lost in ’07 and ’11

2004,Patriots,OG Logan Mankins (1),Lost Super Bowls in ’07 and ’11

2009,Saints,TE Jimmy Graham (3),?????

[/table]

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Receivers who’ve done it the hard way

Some receivers have it better than others. Indeed, some receivers have it so much better it’s almost unfair.

Wes Welker, for instance. He got to play with Tom Brady for six years in New England (well, five years and one game), and now he’s running routes for Peyton Manning in Denver. How sweet is that? Answer: five 100-catch seasons sweet.

Jerry Rice had Joe Montana and Steve Young (not to mention Rich Gannon). Michael Irvin had Troy Aikman. Andre Reed had Jim Kelly. Talk about blessed.

Then there are those who aren’t as blessed. I started thinking about this the other day when it occurred to me that in his 13 seasons, most of them quite productive, the Redskins’ Santana Moss has had only one year in which his quarterback made the Pro Bowl. That would be 2012, when Robert Griffin III was voted in as a rookie (but couldn’t play because of a blown-out knee). Other than that, Moss has chased passes thrown by the likes of Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb — some of whom had been Pro Bowlers in their prime, but not when they were teamed with Santana.

Which made me wonder: How unusual is it for a receiver to catch 700 balls — in Moss’ case 722 — essentially without the benefit of Pro Bowl quarterbacking? My research shows he’s not alone in this regard, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of company, either:

700 CAREER CATCHES, FEWEST SEASONS WITH A PRO BOWL QUARTERBACK

[table]

Catches,Receiver\, Team*,Pro Bowl Quarterback, Total Seasons

860,Muhsin Muhammad\, Panthers,Steve Beuerlein, 1 of 14 (1999)

857,Anquan Boldin\, 49ers,Kurt Warner,1 of 11 (2008)

846,Larry Fitzgerald\, Cardinals,Kurt Warner,1 of 10 (2008)

764,Eric Moulds\, Bills, Drew Bledsoe,1 of 12 (2002)

722,Santana Moss\, Redskins,Robert Griffin III,1 of 13 (2012)

712,Brandon Marshall\, Bears,Jay Cutler,1 of 8 (2008)

[/table]

OTHER HAVE-NOTS

[table]

Catches,Receiver\, Team*,Pro Bowl Quarterback(s), Total Seasons

943,Derrick Mason\, Titans,Steve McNair,2 of 15 (2000\, ’03)

927,Andre Johnson\, Texans,Matt Schaub,2 of 11 (2009\, ’12)

814,Henry Ellard\, Rams,Everett\, Frerotte,2 of 16 (1990\, ’96)

814,Keyshawn Johnson\, Jets/Bucs,Testaverde\, B. Johnson,2 of 11 (1998\, 2002)

[/table]

*Current team or the one he played for longest.

(Note: I excluded running backs, which is why Larry Centers isn’t listed.)

This raises any any number of questions, perhaps the biggest being:

How much does the quarterback make the receiver, and how much does the receiver make the QB? Would Moss and the others have put up even gaudier numbers if, like Donald Driver, they’d spent their entire careers huddling up with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay? And if you go along with this premise, might this make them a tad — or even more than a tad — underrated?

Food for thought, at the very least. Moulds, Moss and Marshall have one playoff win among them — one in 33 combined seasons. There’s something to be said for a receiver’s supporting cast, particularly at the quarterback spot.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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