Category Archives: Stats/Charts

The Packers’ daunting odds

The defending NFL champions host the conference title game Sunday with a chance to go back to the Super Bowl. Which makes you wonder: Have the champs ever lost in this situation?

Answer: Once in 48 years.

It’s something for Wisconsinites to think about as the Packers head to Seattle for the NFC championship game. Yes, the Seahawks won it all last year, and yes, they have the home-field advantage. But a Green Bay victory wouldn’t be unprecedented — just almost.

Here are the nine previous times we’ve had this kind of matchup. Obviously, it isn’t easy to get the stars to align properly; that’s why it’s happened so seldom. You have to win the Super Bowl, of course, which is hard enough, but then you have to come back the next year and post the best record in your conference (except in one instance). In other words: no Super Bowl Hangover.

That’s why the teams on the following list are so recognizable. They were pretty special.

DEFENDING CHAMPIONS WHO HOSTED THE CONFERENCE TITLE GAME

[table]

Year,Team (W-L),Conference Title Game,Super Bowl

1998,Broncos (14-2),Beat Jets\, 23-10,Beat Falcons\, 34-19

1993,Cowboys (12-4),Beat 49ers\, 38-21,Beat Bills\, 30-13

1990,49ers (14-2),Lost to Giants\, 15-13,DNA

1989,49ers (14-2),Beat Rams\, 30-3,Beat Broncos\, 55-10

1982,Redskins (14-2),Beat 49ers\, 24-21,Lost to Raiders\, 38-9

1978,Steelers (14-2),Beat Oilers\, 34-5,Beat Cowboys\, 35-31

1975,Steelers (12-2),Beat Raiders\, 16-10,Beat Cowboys\, 21-17

1973,Dolphins (12-2),Beat Raiders\, 27-10,Beat Vikings\, 24-7

1967,Packers (9-4-1),Beat Cowboys\, 21-17,Beat Raiders\, 33-14

[/table]

(The 1967 Packers-Cowboys game — the celebrated Ice Bowl — was actually the NFL title game, the winner of which advanced to the Super Bowl against the AFL champ.)

As you can see, only the 1990 49ers failed to win — and they were going for a three-peat, so maybe we can cut them a little slack. In fact, seven of the other eight went on to take the Super Bowl, which bodes well for the Seahawks as they try to go back-to-back.

But again, you can’t rule out the Packers, historically speaking, because of this:

Here’s the longer version if you want to get the full flavor of the moment:

The moral: Difficult, but not impossible.

Postscript: Did you catch, by the way, that Lawrence Taylor was on the Giants’ field goal protection unit? Gotta love it.

Final Four quarterbacks

The NFL didn’t even have a Final Four until 1967, when it split the conferences into two divisions and added an extra playoff round. Before that, there was only a Final Two — the championship game. So when we talk about Final Four quarterbacks, we’re talking only about the Super Bowl era (which began in ’66).

In those 49 seasons, no QB has been to the Final Four more often than the Patriots’ Tom Brady, who’ll play in his ninth AFC title game Sunday against the Colts. In fact, Brady has gotten to the

Tom Brady

Final Four as many times as Hall of Famers Dan Marino, Bob Griese and Fran Tarkenton (3 each) combined.

It’s been an incredible run for him and the Patriots, especially since there’s free agency now, which is supposed to make it harder to sustain success. Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach and Ken Stabler never had to worry about losing a key offensive player to another team. Brady, on the other hand, has seen receivers Deion Branch (Seahawks) and Wes Welker (Broncos) and linemen Damien Woody (Lions) and Logan Mankins (Bucs) either take the money and run or get traded for salary cap reasons. Yet here he is again, going for another AFC championship.

Granted, it’s easier to make the Final Four these days with so many more playoff spots available (12 instead of the original eight). If you can just sneak in as a sixth seed, you’ve got a shot. But that doesn’t really apply to Brady and the Pats. Every time they’ve qualified for the postseason, they’ve done it as the division champs.

Anyway, here’s the company Brady keeps:

QUARTERBACKS WHO REACHED THE MOST FINAL FOURS, 1966-2014

[table]

Quarterback\, Team(s),Seasons,W-L,Total

Tom Brady\, Patriots,2001*\, ’03*\, ’04*\, ’06\, ’07\, ’11\, ’12\, ’13\, ’14,5-3, 9

Joe Montana\, 49ers (6)/Chiefs (1),1981*\, ’83\, ’84*\, ’88*\, ’89*\, ’90\, ’93,4-3, 7

John Elway\, Broncos,1986\, ’87\, ’89\, ’91\, ’97*\, ’98*,5-1, 6

Terry Bradshaw\, Steelers,1972\, ’74*\, ’75*\, ’76\, ’78*\, ’79*,4-2, 6

Roger Staubach\, Cowboys,1971*\, ’72\, ’73\, ’75\, ’77*\, ’78,4-2, 6

Brett Favre\, Packers (4)/Vikings (1),1995\, ’96*\, ’97\, ’07\, ’09,2-3, 5

Donovan McNabb\, Eagles,2001\, ’02\, ’03\, ’04\, ’08,1-4, 5

Jim Kelly\, Bills,1988\, ’90\, ’91\, ’92\, ’93,4-1, 5

Ken Stabler\, Raiders,1973\, ’74\, ’75\, ’76*\, ’77,1-4, 5

Peyton Manning\, Colts (3)/Broncos (1),2003\, ’06*\, ’09\, ’13,3-1, 4

Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,2004\, ’05*\, ’08*\, ’10,3-1, 4

Steve Young\, 49ers,1992\, ’93\, ’94*\, ’97,1-3, 4

Troy Aikman\, Cowboys,1992*\, ’93*\, ’94\, ’95*,3-1, 4

Daryle Lamonica\, Raiders,1967\, ’68\, ’69\, ’70,1-3, 4

[/table]

*Won Super Bowl.

Some other fun facts:

● Stabler played in the most consecutive Final Fours — five. This will be Brady’s fourth in a row, tying him with McNabb, Aikman, Kelly and Lamonica. Kelly played in five in six seasons;

Ken Stabler

Bradshaw and Staubach played in six in eight seasons.

● Brady’s nine Final Fours have come in a 14-year span (2001-14). That puts him second only to Favre, who played in five in a 15-year stretch (1995-2009).

● Griese (Dolphins) and Kurt Warner (Rams/Cardinals) were 3-0 in conference title games. Jim Plunkett (Raiders) and Len Dawson (Chiefs) were 2-0. (Dawson’s games, like most of Lamonica’s, were AFL championship games.) Elway was 5-1, Kelly 4-1.

● Aikman and Young faced each other in three straight Final Fours in the ’90s (1992-94). Troy won the first two games, Steve the last. Bradshaw and Stabler did the same in the ’70s (1974-76) — with the same result. Terry won the first two, Snake the finale. Finally, Elway and Bernie Kosar (Browns) squared off three times in four seasons in the ’80s (1986-87, ’89), with John taking all three games.

Footnote: As impressive as Bill Belichick’s Patriots have been in the 2000s, their nine conference title games in 14 seasons don’t quite measure up the 14 in 17 seasons by Tom Landry’s Cowboys (1966-82) or the nine in 11 seasons by Al Davis’ Raiders (1967-77). Of course, the Pats might not be through. Brady certainly doesn’t look like a quarterback who’s losing his edge, even if he is 37.

The last of Joe Montana’s seven Final Fours was with the ’93 Chiefs.

Marvin Lewis and the perils of January

The Bengals have made the playoffs in six of Marvin Lewis 12 seasons. You’d think congratulations would be in order — first for surviving a dozen years in any coaching job, and second for steering his team to the postseason so often. But Lewis’ 0-6 record in the playoffs has folks wondering, rightfully, whether he’ll be working in Cincinnati much longer. This is, after all, the Not For Long League. It’s not enough to just win, baby. You have to keep on winning, baby, into January and beyond.

Not that he’ll take any comfort in this, but Lewis is hardly the first coach to trip over that final hurdle. Heck, there are guys in the Hall of Fame who tripped over that final hurdle — and several others who rank high on the all-time victories list. Indeed, if there were a Misery Index for coaches, it might look something like this:

100-WIN COACHES WHO HAD A LOSING RECORD IN THE PLAYOFFS

[table]

Span,Coach (Titles),Teams,Regular Season,Playoffs

1986-01,Jim Mora,Saints\, Colts,125-106-0\, .541,0-6\, .000

2003-14,Marvin Lewis,Bengals,100-90-2\, .526,0-6\, .000

1955-74,Sid Gillman (1),Rams\, Chargers\, Oilers,122-99-7\, .550,1-5\, .167

1931-53,Steve Owen (2),Giants,151-100-17\, .595,2-8\, .200

1966-77,George Allen,Rams\, Redskins,116-47-5\, .705,2-7\, .222

1984-06,Marty Schottenheimer,Browns\, Chiefs\, 2 others,200-116-1\, .613,5-13\, .278

1973-86,Don Coryell,Cardinals\, Chargers,111-83-1\, .572,3-6\, .333

1992-06,Dennis Green,Vikings\, Cardinals,113-94-0\, .546,4-8\, .333

1973-94,Chuck Knox,Rams\, Bills\, Seahawks,186-147-1\, 558,7-11\, .389

1967-85,Bud Grant,Vikings,158-96-5\, .620,10-12\, .455

1994-14,Jeff Fisher,Oilers/Titans\, Rams,162-147-1\, 524,5-6\, .455

1996-08,Tony Dungy (1),Bucs\, Colts,139-69-0\, .688,10-12\, .455

[/table]

(Note: If you want to be technical about it, Grant won the NFL championship in 1969, then lost the Super Bowl to the AFL’s Chiefs. Also: Schottenheimer’s other teams were the Redskins and Chargers.)

That’s 12 coaches with 100 regular-season victories who have lost more playoff games than they’ve won. Four are in Canton (Gillman, Owen, Allen and Grant) and another has been a finalist (Coryell) and may eventually get elected. Clearly, then, a poor postseason record doesn’t have to be a reputation-killer for a coach. (And yes, Gillman’s and Owen’s situations are much different from the others’. All but one of their playoff games was a title game — back when that was the extent of pro football’s postseason.)

The biggest problem for Lewis, obviously, is the goose egg. Aside from Mora, everybody else in the group had at least one notable postseason. Owen, Gillman (AFL) and Dungy won titles; Grant, Allen and Fisher reached the Super Bowl; and Schottenheimer (three times), Coryell (twice), Green (twice) and Knox (four) all made multiple trips to the conference championship game.

As for Lewis and Mora, well, Jim probably said it best:

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Rodgers, Romo and the shadow of Montana

As the NFL cranks up for the playoffs, it’s hard not to notice that Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo are playing quarterback about as well as it can be played. Romo’s 113.2 passer rating for the Cowboys this season is the sixth highest in history; Rodgers’ 112.2 for the Packers is ninth. They’ve had their way with almost every defense they’ve gone up against (even, in Tony’s case, the Seahawks).

The question now becomes: Can they keep playing at this ridiculous level in the postseason? Or more to the point: Can they — or anybody else, for that matter — ever do what Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

When you talk about a quarterback “playing the position about as well as it can be played,” you have to start with Joe Montana in 1989. During the regular season, he compiled a 112.4 rating, which was the record at the time. Then he actually turned it up a notch in the playoffs and posted a rating of 146.4, which is still the record in the Super Bowl era (and only 11.9 points shy of a perfect score, 158.3).

Among Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, Montana’s 1989 playoff performance is the gold standard by a sizable margin, as you can see:

REGULAR SEASON AND POSTSEASON COMBINED

[table]

Year,Quarterback\, Team,G,Att,Comp,Pct,Yds,TD,Int,Rating

1989,Joe Montana\, 49ers,16,469,336,71.6,4\,321,37,8,119.4

1994,Steve Young\, 49ers,19,548,377,68.8,4\,592,44,10,113.5

2009,Drew Brees\, Saints,18,616,435,70.6,5\,120,42,11,110.8

2010,Aaron Rodgers\, Packers,19,607,402,66.2,5\,016,37,13,103.1

1996,Brett Favre\, Packers,19,614,369,60.1,4\,516,44,14,97.2

1982,Joe Theismann\, Redskins,13,337,219,65.0,2\,749,21,12,96.2

1992,Troy Aikman\, Cowboys,19,562,363,64.6,4\,240,31,14,95.4

2004,Tom Brady\, Patriots,19,555,343,61.8,4\,279,33,14,95.0

2012,Joe Flacco\, Ravens,20,657,390,59.4,4\,957,33,10,93.4

1988,Joe Montana\, 49ers,17,487,294,60.4,3\,804,26,11,93.3

1986,Phil Simms\, Giants,19,526,297,56.5,3\,981,29,22,81.6

[/table]

Montana’s victory lap, if you want to call it that, really began in the ’88 playoffs. That’s when he started a streak of eight postseason games in which he had a rating of 100 or higher (three in ’88, three in ’89 and two in ’90). Check out his numbers for the 19-game stretch beginning in the ’88 postseason and running through the end of ’89. (Note: He missed three games in ’89.)

MONTANA’S STATS FROM 1988 PLAYOFFS THROUGH 1989 PLAYOFFS

[table width=”400px”]

G (RS/PS),Att,Comp,Pct,Yds,TD,INT,Rating

19 (13/6),559,392,70.1,5\,144,45,9,119.0

[/table]

His ratings in those six postseason games, by the way, were 100.5, 136, 115.2, 142.5, 125.3 and 146.7 — against the best competition the NFL had to offer. How’s that for quarterbacking? And let’s not forget, the rules weren’t nearly as QB-friendly then. The league-wide passer rating in ’88 (70.6) and ’89 (73.3) was much lower than it was this year (87.1).

Montana has set the bar very high, perhaps impossibly high. Anyway, that’s what Rodgers and Romo are up against as they try to “play the position about as well as it can be played.”

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Will anybody ever play quarterback better than Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

Will anybody ever play quarterback better than the 49ers’ Joe Montana did 25 years ago?

Quality starts for quarterbacks, 2014

At the start of the season, I suggested the NFL needed a new stat: quality starts for quarterbacks. The bar shouldn’t be set terribly high, I’ve decided, just as it isn’t in baseball for pitchers (at least six innings, three or fewer earned runs). My recommendation is: Any start in which a QB posts a passer rating above the NFL average for that season constitutes a quality start. The league average this year was 87.1 — an all-time record — so we’re looking at how many times a guy had a rating of 87.2 or above (minimum: 10 passes).

As it turns out, 16 of the 32 teams had a quarterback who racked up eight or more quality starts. In other words, half the clubs had a QB who played above average, rating-wise, in at least half the games. Here’s a chart that lays it all out. Take a look, and then we’ll discuss it.

MOST QUALITY STARTS (RATING OF 87.2 OR BETTER), 2014

[table]

QS,QB\, Team (Season Rating),High,Low,100+

14,Aaron Rodgers\, Packers (112.2),154.5 vs. Panthers,34.3 vs. Bills,11

13,Tony Romo\, Cowboys (113.2),151.7 vs. Colts,53.7 vs Eagles (1)*,10

11,Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers (103.3),150.6 vs. Colts,64.4 vs. Browns (2),10

11,Drew Brees\, Saints (97.0),140.0 vs. Steelers,69.7 vs. Panthers (2),7

11,Andrew Luck\, Colts (96.5),140.4 vs. Jaguars,41.7 vs. Cowboys,7

11,Joe Flacco\, Ravens (90.9),146.0 vs. Bucs,41.7 vs. Texans,7

11,Tom Brady\, Patriots (97.4),148.4 vs. Bears,59.9 vs. Chiefs,6

10,Russell Wilson\, Seahawks (95.0),127.3 vs. Redskins,47.6 vs. Cowboys,7

10,Matt Ryan\, Falcons (93.9),155.9 vs. Bucs,48.6 vs. Bengals,7

10,Alex Smith\, Chiefs (93.4),144.4 vs. Patriots,45.2 vs. Titans,5

9,Peyton Manning\, Broncos (101.5), 157.2 vs. 49ers,56.9 vs. Bills,9

9,Philip Rivers\, Chargers (93.8),131.4 vs. Bills,31.0 vs. Dolphins,6

9,Colin Kaepernick\, 49ers (86.4),125.5 vs. Cowboys,36.7 vs. Seahawks (1),4

8,Eli Manning\, Giants (92.1),148.8 vs. Rams,36.6 vs. 49ers,8

8,Ryan Tannehill\, Dolphins (92.8),125.6 vs. Chargers,70.4 vs. Chiefs,6

8,Andy Dalton\, Bengals (83.3),143.9 vs. Saints,2.0 vs Browns (1),4

[/table]

*Figures in parentheses = first or second meeting.

Maybe the biggest surprise is that Peyton Manning, who led all quarterbacks in 2013 with 15 quality starts, dropped to nine this year (one more than Andy Dalton). Is it just a blip, or has the decline begun? He is, after all, almost 39. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, fell from 13 to nine in an up-and-down season, and the Lions’ Matt Stafford went from 10 to five – and as a result, doesn’t even appear in the chart. (No matter. The Lions improved from 7-9 to 11-5 and made the playoffs, thanks a defense that gave up 94 fewer points.)

At the top of the list are most of the usual suspects — Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson. The only one who jumps out at you is Joe Flacco, who had 11 quality starts even though his overall rating of 90.9 isn’t that far above average. Good Joe had seven ratings of 100-plus; Not So Good Joe had two ratings in the 40s.

Football already has tons of stats, of course, but it seems like there’s a void here. If anybody has a better idea for evaluating quarterback performance, week in and week out — besides just wins and losses, I mean — I’d love to hear it.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers was No. 1 in the NFL this season in quality starts. But that’s not what he means here.

Oh-Oh-Odell Beckham

Here’s what’s really amazing about Odell Beckham, the Giants’ fantabulous rookie receiver: He became a phenomenon even though his team lost seven of his first eight NFL games. Now that’s hard to do — though it’s probably a little less hard if you happen to play in the media capital of the world.

With his one-handed grabs, big-play ability and week-in, week-out productivity, Beckham takes your breath away. His numbers don’t just speak for themselves, their shout: 79 catches for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 11 games. If he hadn’t missed the first month with a hamstring injury, we’d be talking about one of the greatest receiving seasons in history, not just one of the greatest by a first-year guy.

But let’s discuss that for a moment – the best seasons, that is, by rookie receivers. Earlier this week in the New York Post, Brian Lewis wrote:

No rookie receiver has ever had the kind of a start to an NFL career that Odell Beckham Jr., has, no first-year wideout has dominated defenses and back pages and highlight shows like this since Randy Moss.

I agree with the second half of that statement, but I take issue with the absolute certainty of the first half. After all, this is the league’s 95^th season. Almost everything has happened before, including a rookie receiver exploding the way Beckham has

Before I go any further, check out this chart. It’ll give you an idea of where Odell’s performance falls — with a game, of course, still to play.

MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME BY A ROOKIE IN NFL/AFL HISTORY

[table]Year,Receiver\, Team,G,Yards,Avg,TD

1960,Bill Groman\, Oilers (AFL),14,1\,473,105.2,12

1952,Billy Howton\, Packers,12,1\,231,102.6,13

2014,Odell Beckham\, Giants,11,1\,120,101.8,11

1954,Harlon Hill\, Bears,12,1\,124,93.7,12

2003,Anquan Boldin\, Cardinals,16,1\,377,86.1,8

1998,Randy Moss\, Vikings,16,1\,313,82.1,17

1965,Bob Hayes\, Cowboys,13,1\,003,77.2,12

1961,Mike Ditka (TE)\, Bears,14,1\,056,76.9,12

1982,Charlie Brown\, Redskins,9*,690,76.7,8

1958,Jimmy Orr\, Steelers,12,910,75.8,7

1996,Terry Glenn\, Patriots,15,1\,132,75.5,6

[/table]

*9-game strike season

(I tacked on the touchdowns at the end in case you were curious.)

One of the things I love about this chart is that just about every decade is represented. There are three receivers from the ’50s, three from the ’60s, two from the ’90s and one each from the ’80s, ’00s and ’10s. Only the ’70s, when defense had the upper hand, are missing.

Another thing I love about this chart is that it’s fair. It looks at per-game average rather than gross yardage, which would skew things toward receivers who had the benefit of longer seasons. Beckham will play in “only” 12 games this year, which is how many Billy Howton, Harlon Hill and Jimmy Orr played in in the ’50s. So you can put his stats next to theirs and decide for yourself who was better. (I’m excluding Bill Groman from this discussion because the AFL in 1960 wasn’t close to being on the NFL’s level.)

Howton had six 100-yard games that season and Hill seven. Let’s compare them to Beckham’s six (so far):

Howton 1952 Hill 1954 Beckham 2014

[table]

Opponent,Rec-Yds-TD,Opponent,Rec-Yds-TD,Opponent,Rec-Yds-TD

Redskins,3-128-1,Lions,4-140-1,Colts,8-156-0,

Rams,5-156-1,Colts,3-144-1,Seahawks,7-108-0,

Lions,7-151-1,49ers,4-116-1,Cowboys,10-146-2,

Lions,7-123-2,49ers,7-224-4,Titans,11-130-1,

Rams,6-200-0,Browns,3-117-1,Redskins,12-143-3,

49ers,8-162-2,Rams,6-109-1,Rams,8-148-2,

Totals,36-920-8,Cardinals,6-117-1,Totals,56-831-8,

,,Totals,33-967-10,,,

[/table]

You can debate until you’re blue in the face the differences between eras and what all this means. But as you can see, what Beckham is doing as a rookie isn’t exactly unprecedented. Other receivers have “had the kind of a start to an NFL career that Odell Beckham Jr., has.” They just played so long ago that hardly anybody remembers.

Howton and Hill, too, were phenomenons. Billy, for instance, had six touchdown catches of 50 yards or longer (90, 89, 78, 69, 54, 50) plus a non-scoring grab of 76. Harlon had TDs of 76, 66, 65 and 64. They were downfield threats, just like Beckham is. The NFL just didn’t get the attention then that it does now. (Never mind an NFL Channel; there was barely an NBC.)

When Howton retired after the 1963 season, he was the all-time leader in receptions (503) and receiving yards (8,459) and ranked third receiving touchdowns (61). He simply had the misfortune of playing in Green Bay when it truly was pro football’s Siberia. (Read: Before Vince Lombardi arrived and thawed things out.)

I kid you not: The day Howton broke Don Hutson’s career receptions record (488), The Dallas Morning News mentioned it in the last paragraph of its game story. (Howton spent his last four seasons with the expansion Cowboys.) And the day the Colts’ Ray Berry broke Billy’s receptions mark, The Associated Press reported: “Berry caught five passes . . . to raise his career total [to] 506,” which was three more than “the career record held by Jim Howton.”

Jim Howton?

As for Hill, he could have wound up in Canton — why Howton isn’t there, I’ll never understand — if injuries hadn’t robbed him of his specialness. Consider: He scored 32 touchdowns in his first three seasons, a total of 36 games. Only four receivers have scored more in their first 36 games: Randy Moss (43), Jerry Rice (40), Rob Gronkowski (38) and John Jefferson (36). How’s that for company?

None of this is meant to knock Beckham down a few pegs. The kid has been an absolute revelation. It’s just meant to remind everybody that he’s not alone on that peg. As I said, the NFL has been around for a long time.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Richard Sherman: Pick of the litter

Richard Sherman, the Seahawks’ ballhawk/cornerback, intercepted another pass in Sunday night’s 35-6 win over the Cardinals. That gives him 24 in his first four seasons (with a game to go), tying him for third most since the 1970 merger. Here’s where he falls on the list:

MOST INTERCEPTIONS, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

[table width=”300px”]Years,Defensive back\, Team,Int

1977-80,Lester Hayes\, Raiders,25

1981-84,Everson Walls\, Cowboys,25

1981-84,Kenny Easley\, Seahawks,24

2011-14,Richard Sherman\, Seahawks,24

1978-81,John Harris\, Seahawks,22

1976-79,Mike Haynes\, Patriots,22

1994-97,Keith Lyle\, Rams,22

1988-91,Erik McMillan\, Jets,22

2002-05,Ed Reed\, Ravens,22

[/table]

Sherman’s total is even more impressive when you consider how much lower interception rates are now (largely because of all the “adjustments” the NFL has made in the rules). In Lester Hayes’ first four seasons, 5.03 percent of all passes were picked off. In Sherman’s first four, 2.71 percent have been. Big difference.

When you look at it that way, Sherman has had the best first four seasons, interception-wise, of any defensive back in the last 45 years. His 24 INTs represent 1.26 percent of all picks from 2011 to 2014:

BEST INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

[table width=”475px”]Years,Defensive back\, Team,Int,League INT,%

2011-14,Richard Sherman\, Seahawks,24, 1\,899,1.26

1981-84,Everson Walls\, Cowboys,25, 2\,162,1.16

1981-84,Kenny Easley\, Seahawks,24, 2\,162,1.11

1994-97,Keith Lyle\, Rams,22, 2\,007,1.10

1992-95,Darren Perry\, Steelers,21, 1\,974,1.06

1988-91,Erik McMillan\, Jets,22, 2\,080,1.06

2002-05,Ed Reed\, Ravens,22, 2\,096,1.05

1977-80,Lester Hayes\, Raiders,25, 2\,425,1.03

1991-94,Aeneas Williams\, Cardinals,20, 1\,950,1.03

1988-91,Eric Allen\, Eagles,21, 2\,080,1.01

1997-00,Sam Madison\, Dolphins,21, 2\,081,1.01

[/table]

It might seem like we’re splitting hairs here, but note the gap between first (Sherman) and second (Walls) — 0.1 percent — is the biggest of all. (Next biggest: .05 percent between second and third.) The gap between top and bottom, meanwhile, is .25 percent. That’s a pretty sizable separation.

In other words, receivers may not be able to separate themselves from Sherman, but Sherman sure can separate himself from other DBs.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman does this to opposing receivers, too.

Slingin’ Antonio Brown

The Steelers’ Antonio Brown has done something this season that hasn’t been done in a decade — and has been accomplished by only 10 receivers in NFL history. Care to guess what it is?

Answer: He’s racked up 1,000 receiving yards and thrown a touchdown pass in the same year.

Obviously, it’s much more common for a 1,000-yard running back to throw for a TD. For one thing, backs get their hands on the ball more than wideouts do. But with the Jet Sweep so popular these days, we might begin to see more scoring passes tossed by golden-armed receivers. Let’s hope so, anyway.

Here’s the short list of wideouts Brown has joined. Note that a couple of them — Randy Moss and Marty Booker — had two of these seasons.

1,000 RECEIVING YARDS AND A TOUCHDOWN PASS IN THE SAME SEASON

[table]

Year,Receiver\, Team,Yds,TD Pass Details

2014,Antonio Brown\, Steelers,1\,498,3 yards to WR Lance Moore vs. Texans

2004,Drew Bennett\, Titans,1\,247,26 yards to WR Derrick Mason vs. Packers

2002,Randy Moss\, Vikings,1\,347,13 yards to WR D’Wayne Bates vs. Dolphins

2002,Marty Booker\, Bears,1\,189,44 yards to WR Marcus Robinson vs. Patriots

2001,Marty Booker\, Bears,1\,071,34 yards to WR Marcus Robinson vs. Falcons

1999,Randy Moss\, Vikings,1\,413,27 yards to WR Cris Carter vs. Giants

1996,Curtis Conway\, Bears,1\,049,33 yards to RB Raymont Harris vs. Cowboys

1995,Jerry Rice\, 49ers,1\,848*,41 yards to WR J.J. Stokes vs. Falcons

1983,Carlos Carson\, Chiefs,1\,351,48 yards to WR Henry Marshall vs. Chargers

1974,Drew Pearson\, Cowboys,1\,087,46 yards to WR Golden Richards vs. Giants

1962,Tommy McDonald\, Eagles,1\,146,10 yards to RB Timmy Brown vs. Redskins

1960,Bill Groman\, Oilers (AFL),1\,473*,3 yards to E Al Wicher vs. Patriots

[/table]

*led league

(Brown, by the way, leads the league in receiving yards with two games to go.)

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Steelers wideout Antonio Brown gets ready to uncork one against the Texans.

Steelers wideout Antonio Brown gets ready to show off his arm against the Texans.

RG3 and The Noise

Statistics are hardly all-telling, but they can help quiet some of the noise surrounding a player. By “noise,” I mean the chatter that’s based more on impressions, gut feelings and personal biases than anything factual.

These days, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III is one of the league leaders in noise. Coach Jay Gruden practically held his nose the other day when he announced that Griffin would start Saturday’s game against the Eagles (after Colt McCoy had been put on injured reserve). Gruden has made no secret of his displeasure with just about everything Griffin does — from holding the ball too long in the pocket to being inattentive to the finer points of “his craft” to staying on the ground too long after a sack (which made the coach wonder whether his quarterback was too hurt to run a Real Play in the closing minutes).

Others have chimed in as well, such as Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton. One of the more curious things Scramblin’ Fran said was: “He is a terrible passer, has no accuracy.”

Griffin may not have textbook mechanics, but he somehow — miraculously — gets the ball to his target. See for yourself:

TOP 5 UNDER-25 QBS FOR COMPLETION % (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

[table width=”350px”]Years,Quarterback\, Team,Pct

2012-14,Robert Griffin\, Redskins,63.66

1999-01,Daunte Culpepper\, Vikings,63.33

2004-06,Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,62.40

1991-94,Brett Favre\, Packers*,61.86

2008-09,Joe Flacco\, Ravens,61.70

[/table]

*Also threw four passes with the Falcons as a rookie.

Maybe we just misunderstood Tarkenton. Maybe what he meant was: RG3 isn’t as incredible(!) as Tiger Woods was at the age of 5. (I think we can all agree with that.)

By the way, before anybody scoffs at Griffin’s completion percentage and says, “All he does is dink and dunk,” take a look at this:

ADJUSTED YARDS PER ATTEMPT FOR UNDER-25 QBS (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

[table width=”350px”]

Years,Quarterback\, Team,AYPA

1983-86,Dan Marino\, Dolphins,8.04

2012-14,Robert Griffin III\, Redskins,7.43

2004-06,Ben Roethlisberger\, Steelers,7.39

1999-01,Daunte Culpepper\, Vikings,7.36

2011-13,Cam Newton\, Panthers,7.25

[/table]

So regardless of how long the ball is in the air, Griffin is getting good yardage out of his throws — more than any quarterback except Marino. (Note: I’m looking only at QBs since 1960. And yes, I realize that, with all the passer-friendly rule changes, these rankings are going to be tilted toward the present.) In terms of unadjusted yards per attempt, in case you’re wondering, he’s seventh at 7.55 (three spots behind Our Friend Fran, who comes in at 7.76.)

Two more things. RG3 is the least interception-prone under-25 passer ever. Doesn’t that count for something? Isn’t ball security part of being a good QB?

LOWEST INTERCEPTION % BY AN UNDER-25 QB (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

[table width=”400px”]

Years,Quarterback\, Team,Att,Int,Pct

2012-14,Robert Griffin III\, Redskins,999,20,2.00

2012-14,Andrew Luck\, Colts,1\,250,29,2.32

1999-01,Donovan McNabb\, Eagles,1\,074,25,2.33

2010-12,Sam Bradford\, Rams,1\,196,28,2.34

1985-88,Bernie Kosar\, Browns,1\,334,32,2.40

[/table]

Last chart. File this one under: It Takes a Village. You can grouse about Griffin’s play all you want, but one of the biggest reasons he hasn’t won more is that his defense hasn’t exactly been the Steel Curtain.

FEWEST POINTS ALLOWED SINCE 2012

[table width=”300px”]

Rank,Team,Pts

1.,Russell Wilson’s Seahawks,718

2.,Colin Kaepernick’s 49ers,830

29.,Robert Griffin’s Redskins,1\,236

[/table]

OK, I’ve made my case – not for RG3’s impending greatness but for not giving up on him like Gruden (and others) seem inclined to do. “He will never make it,” Tarkenton said. “He will be out of football. He will be in the same graveyard as JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young.”

“He” is still 24. Aren’t we being a bit hasty?

Or to put it another way: In a decade, Griffin will be four years younger than Peyton Manning is now.

Source; pro-football-reference.com

Le’Veon Bell breaks out

Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers’ second-year running back, was having a nice little career for himself heading into the Titans game three weeks ago. Now, though, such adjectives as “nice” and “little” no longer seem to apply. Three straight games with 200-plus yards from scrimmage will do that for you.

It’s unusual enough, after all, for a back to have two games in a row like that. Only seven others have done it in the 2000s — and no back has had three in a row since Bears Hall of Famer Walter Payton in 1977. The details:

BACKS IN THE 2000S WITH 200 YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES

[table width=”500px”]

Year,Back\, Team,Opponents (Yards),Total

2014,Le’Veon Bell\, Steelers,Titans (222)\, Saints (254)\, Bengals (235),711

2012,Doug Martin\, Bucs,Vikings (214)\, Raiders (272),486

2007,Ronnie Brown\, Dolphins,Jets (211)\, Raiders (207),418

2003,Deuce McAlister\, Saints,Falcons (237)\, Eagles (232),469

2002,Ricky Williams\, Dolphins,Bills (235)\, Bears (216),451

2002,Marshall Faulk\, Rams,Seahawks (235)\, Cardinals (235),471

2000,Mike Anderson\, Broncos,Seahawks (209)\, Saints (256),465

2000,Eddie George\, Titans,Bengals (214)\, Jaguars (209),423

[/table]

Now let’s compare Bell’s run to Payton’s. Le’Veon first:

[table width=”400px”]

VS.,Rushing,Receiving,Total

Titans,33-204-1,2-18-0,35-222-1

Saints,21-95-1,8-159-0,29-254-1

Bengals,26-185-2,6-50-1,32-235-3,

Totals,80-484-4,16-227-1,96-711-5

[/table]

And now Walter:

[table width=”400px”]

VS.,Rushing,Receiving,Total

Chiefs,33-192-3,1-29-0,34-221-3

Vikings,40-275-1,1-6-0,41-281-1

Lions,20-137-1,4-107-0,24-244-1

Totals,93-604-5,6-142-0,99-746-5

[/table]

Awful close. Note that Payton set a single-game rushing record (since broken) when he went for 275 against the Vikes. But other than that . . . there isn’t much difference between them volume-

Le’Veon Bell cuts upfield.

wise. Walter had three more touches and 35 more yards.

Note, too, that both had a 100-yard receiving game during their streak. If you’re going to pull off something like this, it helps to have some pass-catching ability.

Thanks in large measure to Payton, by the way, the Bears made the playoffs that season for the first time in 14 years (when they won their last title under George Halas). And Bell, of course, has the 8-5 Steelers pointed in the same direction. (He’s also on pace to finish with 2,368 yards from scrimmage, which would be the fifth-highest total of all time.)

At any rate, the word is out about him now — if it wasn’t before. This is one dangerous (and durable) back.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

PRO FOOTBALL DALY

The whole 100 yards — and sometimes the end zones, too.

Category Archives: Stats/Charts

The Packers’ daunting odds

DEFENDING CHAMPIONS WHO HOSTED THE CONFERENCE TITLE GAME

Final Four quarterbacks

QUARTERBACKS WHO REACHED THE MOST FINAL FOURS, 1966-2014

Marvin Lewis and the perils of January

100-WIN COACHES WHO HAD A LOSING RECORD IN THE PLAYOFFS

Rodgers, Romo and the shadow of Montana

TOP POSTSEASON RATINGS BY SUPER BOWL-WINNING QBS

REGULAR SEASON AND POSTSEASON COMBINED

MONTANA’S STATS FROM 1988 PLAYOFFS THROUGH 1989 PLAYOFFS

Quality starts for quarterbacks, 2014

MOST QUALITY STARTS (RATING OF 87.2 OR BETTER), 2014

Oh-Oh-Odell Beckham

MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME BY A ROOKIE IN NFL/AFL HISTORY

Howton 1952 Hill 1954 Beckham 2014

Richard Sherman: Pick of the litter

MOST INTERCEPTIONS, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

BEST INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE, FIRST FOUR SEASONS (SINCE 1970)

Slingin’ Antonio Brown

1,000 RECEIVING YARDS AND A TOUCHDOWN PASS IN THE SAME SEASON

RG3 and The Noise

TOP 5 UNDER-25 QBS FOR COMPLETION % (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

ADJUSTED YARDS PER ATTEMPT FOR UNDER-25 QBS (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

LOWEST INTERCEPTION % BY AN UNDER-25 QB (MINIMUM: 750 ATTEMPTS)

FEWEST POINTS ALLOWED SINCE 2012

Le’Veon Bell breaks out

BACKS IN THE 2000S WITH 200 YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES