Tag Archives: 49ers

The incredible shrinking running back

Much was made during the offseason about the running back’s diminished importance in today’s pass-first offenses. For the second year in a row — an NFL first — no runner was taken in Round 1 of the draft. So I thought I’d work up some charts that showed exactly why.

As you can see below, 10 of the 14 Super Bowl winners in the 2000s have had a quarterback who ranked in the Top 10 in the league in passer rating, but only three have had a back that ranked in the Top 10 in rushing (one of them being the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch last year).

For that matter, just four of the champs had a Top 10 receiver, and five of them (including Seattle) didn’t even have a 1,000-yard guy. It’s more about Spreading the Ball Around now. (So how come nobody’s talking about the Incredible Shrinking Wideout?)

It wasn’t like this in the early years of the free agency (1993-99). Elite runners and elite receivers were very much a part of winning titles. Five of the seven championship clubs had Top 10 rushers and just as many had Top 10 pass-catchers. The specifics:

[table]

Year,Champion,QB\, Rating (Rank),Top Rusher\, Yds (Rank),Top Receiver\, Yds (Rank)

2013,Seahawks,Russell Wilson\, 101.2 (7),Marshawn Lynch\, 1\,257 (6),Golden Tate\, 898 (31)

2012,Ravens,Joe Flacco\, 87.7 (14),Ray Rice\, 1\,143 (11),Anquan Boldin\, 921 (27)

2011,Giants,Eli Manning\, 92.9 (7),Ahmad Bradshaw\, 659 (29),Victor Cruz\, 1\,536 (3)

2010,Packers,Aaron Rodgers\, 101.2 (3),Brandon Jackson\, 703 (33),Greg Jennings\, 1\,265 (4)

2009,Saints,Drew Brees\, 109.6 (1),Pierre Thomas\, 793 (T24),Marques Colston\, 1\,074 (18)

2008,Steelers,B.Roethlisberger\, 80.1 (24),Willie Parker\, 791 (26),Hines Ward\, 1\,043 (15)

2007,Giants,Eli Manning\, 73.9 (25),B. Jacobs\, 1\,009 (T15),Plaxico Burress\, 1\,025 (21)

2006,Colts,P. Manning\, 101.0 (1),Joseph Addai\, 1\,081 (18),Marvin Harrison\, 1\,366 (2)

2005,Steelers,B.Roethlisberger\, 98.6 (3),Willie Parker\, 1\,202 (12),Hines Ward\, 975 (22)

2004,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 92.9 (9),Corey Dillon\, 1\,635 (3),David Givens\, 874 (32)

2003,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 85.9 (10),Antowain Smith\, 642 (30),Deion Branch\, 803 (32)

2002,Bucs,Brad Johnson\, 92.9 (3),Michael Pittman\, 718 (32),K. Johnson\, 1\,088 (16)

2001,Patriots,Tom Brady\, 86.5 (6),Antowain Smith\, 1\,157 (12),Troy Brown\, 1\,199 (10)

2000,Ravens,Trent Dilfer\, 76.6 (21),Jamal Lewis\, 1\,364 (7), Shannon Sharpe\, 810 (32)

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Now look at the 1993-to-1999 period:

[table]

Year,Champion,QB\, Rating (Rank),Top Rusher\, Yards (Rank),Top Receiver\, Yards (Rank)

1999,Rams,Kurt Warner\, 109.2 (1),Marshall Faulk\, 1\,381 (5),Isaac Bruce\, 1\,165 (12)

1998,Broncos,John Elway\, 93.0 (5),Terrell Davis\, 2\,008 (1),Rod Smith\, 1\,222 (4)

1997,Broncos,John Elway\, 87.5 (7),Terrell Davis\, 1\,750 (2),Rod Smith\, 1\,180 (T8)

1996,Packers,Brett Favre\, 95.8 (2),Edgar Bennett\, 899 (14),Antonio Freeman\, 933 (24)

1995,Cowboys,Troy Aikman\, 93.6 (3),Emmitt Smith\, 1\,773 (1),Michael Irvin\, 1\,603 (4)

1994,49ers,Steve Young\, 112.8 (1),Ricky Watters\, 877 (15),Jerry Rice\, 1\,499 (1)

1993,Cowboys,Troy Aikman\, 99.0 (2),Emmitt Smith\, 1\,486 (1),Michael Irvin\, 1\,330 (2)

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This gives us the following breakdown:

[table width=”400px”]

Period (Seasons),Top 10 QBs,Top 10 RBs,Top 10 Receivers

2000-13 (14),10,3,4

1993-99 (7),7,5,5

[/table]

Another indication of the position’s decline: None of the Top 10 postseasons by a Super Bowl-winning running back have come in this century. The party pretty much ended with the Broncos’ Terrell Davis in 1997 and ’98.

[table]

Year,RB\, Team,Games,Yards,Per Game

1998,Terrell Davis\, Broncos,3,468,156.0

1983,Marcus Allen\, Raiders,3,466,155.3

1982,John Riggins\, Redskins,4,610,152.5

1997,Terrell Davis\, Broncos,4,581,145.3

1974,Franco Harris\, Steelers,3,343,114.3

1987,Timmy Smith\, Redskins,3,342,114.0

1992,Emmitt Smith\, Cowboys,3,336,112.0

1973,Larry Csonka\, Dolphins,3,333,111.0

1975,Franco Harris\, Steelers,3,314,104.7

1986,Joe Morris\, Giants,3,313,104.3

[/table]

Top three postseasons by running backs on Super Bowl losers: Thurman Thomas with the 1990 Bills (3/309/130), Frank Gore with the 2012 49ers (3/319/106.3) and Marshall Faulk with the 2001 Rams (3/317/105.7).

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, nfl.com

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The rich getting richer (usually, at least)

One of the neater tricks in pro football is to win the championship (hard enough), then double your pleasure by selecting a Hall of Famer in the next draft (harder still, especially if you’re picking last).

It’s happened just 10 times in NFL history, most recently in 1993-94. (The player involved was admitted to Canton last year. I’ll let you guess who.)

As you’ll see, seven of the 10 teams won another title within five years. The other three messed up — royally. One cut its future Hall of Famer (who went on to win a Super Bowl with the Jets), another traded him (after which he won five championships with the Packers) and the third failed to sign him (whereupon he won an AFL crown with the Chargers).

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a club to pull this off again. It could be another decade or two, considering the paucity of candidates.

Note: I’m not including the ’49 Eagles or the ’50 Browns. Yes, they both came away from the next draft with a Hall of Famer, but it was a coach (Bud Grant for Philadelphia and Don Shula for Cleveland).

NFL CHAMPIONS WHO SELECTED A HALL OF FAMER IN THE NEXT DRAFT

[table]

Year,Champs,Hall of Fame Pick (Round),Result

1948,Eagles,LB Chuck Bednarik (1),Won titles in ’49 and ’60

1952,Lions,LB Joe Schmidt (7),Won title games in ’53 and ’57\, lost in ’54

1955,Browns,DE Willie Davis (15),DNP until ’58\, traded to Packers in ’60

1956,Giants,WR Don Maynard (9),Lost title game in ’58\, went to AFL’s Jets

1959,Colts,OT Ron Mix (1),Signed with AFL’s Chargers

1962,Packers,LB Dave Robinson (1),Won titles in ’65\, ’66 and ’67

1980,Raiders,DE Howie Long (2),Won Super Bowl in ’83

1982,Redskins,CB Darrell Green (1),Won Super Bowls in ’87 and ’91\, lost in ’83

1984,49ers,WR Jerry Rice (1),Won Super Bowls in ’88\, ’89 and ’94

1993,Cowboys,OG Larry Allen (2),Won Super Bowl in ’95

[/table]

There were also three league champions — two from the AFL, one from the NFL — who lost the Super Bowl and added a Hall of Famer in the next draft (kind of as a consolation prize). These were:

[table]

Year,Champs,Hall of Fame Pick (Round),Result

1966,Chiefs,LB Willie Lanier (2),Won Super Bowl in ’69

1967,Raiders,OT Art Shell (3),Won Super Bowls in ’76 and ’80

1968,Colts,LB Ted Hendricks (2),Won Super Bowl in ’70

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Finally, here are some Super Bowl champions of more recent vintage who may eventually join this list. (Note the word “may.”)

[table]

Year,Champs,Possible HOF-er in next draft (Round),Result

1996,Packers,FS Darren Sharper (2),Lost Super Bowl in ’97

2003,Patriots,NT Vince Wilfork (1),Won Super Bowl in ’04\, lost in ’07 and ’11

2004,Patriots,OG Logan Mankins (1),Lost Super Bowls in ’07 and ’11

2009,Saints,TE Jimmy Graham (3),?????

[/table]

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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