Tag Archives: Bucs

The name’s the same

Spent the better part of the morning trying to put together sets of Triplets — quarterback, running back, receiver — who share the same last name (even if they didn’t play on the same club or in the same era). There was no fudging allowed, either. For instance, you couldn’t try to team Kerry Collins with Cris Collinsworth or Trent Green with BenJarvus Green-Ellis or, heaven forbid, Rob Gronkowski with Bruce Gradkowski. The receiver could, however, be a wideout or a tight end. The rules weren’t totally inflexible.

Anyway, it was harder than I thought it would be. There just aren’t many surnames that are very common in NFL/AFL history. I almost hurled my laptop, Frisbee style, when I was two-thirds of the way to paydirt with Jim and Leroy Kelly — Hall of Famers both — but couldn’t come up with a receiver any better than Reggie, the underwhelming tight end for the Bengals and Falcons.

Smith is another one. You’d think that would be a gimmie — Emmitt at running back, Jerry (or Jimmy or Steve or Rod or Jerry) at receiver and . . . good luck finding a quarterback worth a darn.

If you work at it, though, you can dig up some nice threesomes. Here are my nominees for:

BEST SETS OF TRIPLETS SHARING THE SAME LAST NAME

Last name Quarterback Running Back Receiver
Young Steve* Buddy* Charle (TE)
Johnson Brad John Henry* Calvin
Sanders Spec Barry* Charlie* (TE)
Anderson Ken Ottis Flipper
White Danny Whizzer Roddy
Jones Bert Dub Homer
Green Trent Ernie Roy
Williams Doug Ricky Roy
Collins Kerry Tony Gary
Mitchell Scott Lydell Bobby*

*Hall of Famer

Only a few of these guys didn’t make at least one Pro Bowl or — in the case of pre-Pro Bowl players — all-pro team. Flipper Anderson didn’t, for example, but, hey, he holds the record for receiving yards in a game (336). In fact, he’s held it for 25 years, which is pretty remarkable considering how long receiving marks tend to last. And granted, Scott Mitchell was nothing special as a quarterback, but he did throw 32 touchdown passes one year for the Lions.

The first three listed are my gold, silver and bronze medalists. As for the others, you can order them however you like. I’m not sure it makes much difference. It’s kind of cool, by the way, that

Spec Sanders

Spec Sanders

Dub and Bert Jones are a father-son pairing. Dub, of course, is one of three NFL players to score six TDs in a game.

One last thing: I was fibbing about the no-fudging rule. Spec Sanders wasn’t technically a quarterback; he was a single-wing tailback for the New York Yankees of the All-America Conference in the ’40s. (He did play one season in the NFL, however, and intercepted 13 passes as a DB to lead the league.)

I included Spec because in 1947 he had one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time, throwing for 1,442 yards and 14 touchdowns and rushing for 1,432 yards and 18 TDs. (In his spare time, he ran a kickoff back 92 yards for another score.)

One day I spent a couple of hours on the phone with him, reminiscing about his playing days. He was utterly self-effacing, not the least bit impressed with his football feats. Just makes me want to keep his name alive.

From the New York Yankees' 1948 media guide.

From the New York Yankees’ 1948 media guide.

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Tashaun Gipson’s six picks

How often are interceptions — the defensive kind — a topic of discussion in the NFL? Oh, every once in a while a DB will go wild, pick off three or four passes in a game, and you’ll think: How’d that happen? Did the Hot Tub Time Machine transport DeAngelo Hall back to 1962? Anything less than that, though, and . . .

So allow me to point out that, eight games into the season, Browns free safety Tashaun Gipson has six INTs. And while you’re stifling a yawn, let me also point out that six is halfway to 12, and nobody has had that many since Lester Hayes had 13 for the Super Bowl-winning Raiders in 1980. In fact, since ’81, when Everson Walls had 11 as an undrafted Cowboys rookie, nobody has had more than 10.

Here are the seven sneak thieves who’ve reached that total in the last two decades:

DBS WITH THE MOST INTERCEPTIONS IN A SEASON (LAST 20 YEARS)

Year Defensive back, Team Int Yds TD
2007 Antonio Cromartie, Chargers 10 144 1
2006 Champ Bailey, Broncos 10 162 1
2006 Asante Samuel, Patriots 10 120 0
2005 Ty Law, Jets 10 195 1
2005 Deltha O’Neal, Bengals 10 103 0
2001 Ronde Barber, Bucs 10    86 1
2001 Anthony Henry, Browns 10 177 1

For those of you scoring at home, there are 31 Pro Bowls in that group – Bailey 12, Law and Barber 5, Samuel 4, Cromartie 3 and O’Neal 2. Three of them, moreover, had more than 50 career picks (Law 53, Bailey 52, Samuel 51) and another had 47 (Barber). That puts them in the Top 20 since 1978, the year the league started legislating against defense. So if Gipson reaches double digits, he’ll be in good company.

Hey, just trying to work up some enthusiasm for The Other Side of the Ball. It ain’t easy these days. After all, Night Train Lane’s record of 14 interceptions in a season has stood since 1952, when they played only 12 games, and hasn’t been seriously challenged in ages. Look at it this way: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown a combined six picks this year. That’s how many Gipson has. Impressed yet?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Gipson at the start of his 62-yard pick-six vs. Drew Brees and the Saints.

Gipson at the start of his 62-yard pick-six vs. Drew Brees and the Saints.

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DeMarco Murray and the Triple Crown

Every NFL season seems to produce a Statistical Phenomenon or two. So far in 2014, the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray is That Guy. Let’s pray to the grid god that Murray gets to finish what he’s started, because what he’s started is pretty impressive.

Two weeks ago, when I first wrote about him, it was because he’d rushed for 100 yards in each of his first four games — something that had been done only six other times since 1960. Well, now he’s rushed for 100 yards in each of his first six games. No other back has done that since ’60.

Murray also is continuing to shoulder a heavy load. Through Week 4, he was on pace for 396 rushing attempts, which would be the seventh-highest total all time. But his 29 carries Sunday in Dallas’ 30-23 road shocker over the Seahawks put him on a 424 pace. That’s eight more the record of 416, set by the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson in 2006.

In addition, Murray has had 180 touches (rushing attempts plus receptions) in his first six games. Only three backs since ’60 have had more. The Top 5:

MOST TOUCHES BY A RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST 6 GAMES SINCE 1960

Year Running Back, Team Rush Rec Total
2000 Eddie George, Titans 165 20 185
2000 Ricky Williams, Dolphins 155 27 182
2002 Priest Holmes, Chiefs 143 38 181
2014 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 159 21 180
1985 James Wilder, Bucs 144 35 179

Wilder, by the way, holds the mark for touches in a season: a superhuman 492 in 1984. Murray projects to 480 (an average of 30 a game). That would be the second-best total in NFL history. As I’ve said before, though, high-volume seasons like that aren’t usually conducive to long-term productivity. Dallas coach Jason Garrett needs to be mindful of the Burnout Factor.

Still, it would nice to see Murray take a run at the Triple Crown — leading the league (or tying for the lead) in rushing yards, per-carry average and rushing touchdowns. It’s a feat that’s been accomplished by just six modern backs, five of whom are in the Hall of Fame. The short list:

RUNNING BACK TRIPLE CROWNS SINCE WORLD WAR II

Year Running Back, Team Rush Yds Avg TD
1998 Terrell Davis, Broncos    2,008 5.1 21
1980 Earl Campbell*, Houston Oilers    1,934 5.2 13
1977 Walter Payton*, Bears    1,852 5.5 14
1975 O.J. Simpson*, Bills    1,817 5.5 16
1967 Leroy Kelly*, Browns    1,205 5.1 11
1963 Jim Brown*, Browns    1,863 6.4 12

(Brown led by a comfortable margin in each category – in rushing by 845 yards, in average by 1.4 and in TDs by 3.)

* Hall of Famer

Murray leads NFL rushers with 785 yards and six TDs, but he has some work to do on his 4.9-yard average. The No. 1 guy in that department through six games, the Ravens’ Justin Forsett, is averaging 6.4 on 64 carries.

A Triple Crown is just incredibly hard to pull off. Consider: Seven backs have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, but only one of them – Davis – won the Triple Crown. LaDainian Tomlinson couldn’t do it in a year (2006) he led the league in rushing (1,815) and scored a record 32 touchdowns, 28 on the ground (2006). Brown couldn’t do it in a year (1958) he broke the season rushing mark by 381 yards (with 1,527), ran for nearly twice as many scores as anybody else in the league (17 to the runner-up’s 9) and had a per-carry average of 5.9 (which ranked a mere fourth).

What makes it even more difficult is that quarterbacks have led the league in rushing average three of the past four seasons (Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III) and seven times in the 2000s. Let’s face it, quarterback yards are different from running back yards. For one thing, QBs have more room to roam.

Still, some running back someday will have a monster year and become the seventh member of the Triple Crown Club. And if it doesn’t happen to be Murray, he’ll have plenty of illustrious backs to keep him company.

Note: The Chargers’ Paul Lowe also had a Triple Crown in the pre-Super Bowl AFL: 1,121 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns (tie) and a 5-yard average (edging the Chiefs’ Mack Lee Hill by .03) in 1965. If you want to count that, too, be my guest. I’m inclined to exclude those years, even though the NFL record book doesn’t. The two leagues just weren’t comparable — yet.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The latest Running Back from Nowhere

Once again Sunday, NFL fans watched slack-jawed as another Mystery Running Back darted and dashed all over the field. This time it was Branden Oliver, the Chargers’ undrafted rookie, who amazed the masses, racking up 114 yards rushing, 68 receiving and one touchdown — in just his third game as a pro — as San Diego routed the Jets 31-0.

This is becoming almost an annual event now, pro football’s version of Punxsutawney Phil emerging from his hole to forecast the weather. Oliver’s emergence, of course, just reminds everybody that scouting is a woefully inexact science, especially when it comes to running backs.

We know this because good ones go unclaimed in the draft all the time. Indeed, there have been 17 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the 2000s by backs who weren’t selected. Practically every year, it seems, an overlooked runner makes personnel departments cringe by leading the NFL in rushing, yards from scrimmage, touchdowns or otherwise distinguishing himself. Check out this list:

THE 9 UNDRAFTED BACKS IN THE 2000S WHO HAVE BEEN 1,000-YARD RUSHERS

Running back, Team Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Arian Foster, Texans 2010 327 1,616 4.9 16
Priest Holmes, Chiefs 2002 313 1,615 5.2 21
Willie Parker, Steelers 2006 337 1,494 4.3 13
Ryan Grant, Packers 2009 282 1,253 4.4 11
James Allen, Bears 2000 290 1,120 3.9 2
Dominic Rhodes, Colts 2001 233 1,104 4.7 9
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals 2012 278 1,094 3.9 6
Fred Jackson, Bills 2009 237 1,062 4.5 2
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs 2010 201 1,007 5.0 6

Note: League leaders in bold face. Foster (2,220) and Holmes (2,287) also led the league in yards from scrimmage.

It’s not just these guys, either. It’s all the other guys, the ones who were drafted as afterthoughts in the late rounds. There are plenty of those, too. Such as:

TOP LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS IN THE 2000S

Running back\ Team Round Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Michael Turner, Falcons 5th 2008 376 1,699 4.5 17
Alfred Morris, Redskins 6th 2012 335 1,613 4.8 13
Mike Anderson, Broncos 6th 2000 297 1,487 5.0 15
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants 7th 2010 276 1,235 4.5 8
Chester Taylor, Vikings 6th 2006 303 1,216 4.0 6

Oliver, built along the lines of the Eagles’ Darren Sproles at 5-foot-7, 201 pounds, came out of the same University of Buffalo program that produced James Starks. Starks, you may recall, was one of the nicer stories of 2010. After being drafted in the sixth round by the Packers and spending most of the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, he pulled a Punxsutawney Phil in the playoffs and rushed for 315 yards to help Green Bay win the Super Bowl. It’s the third-highest rushing total by a rookie in the postseason since 1960.

There’s no telling what lies ahead for Oliver. Sunday could be the highlight of his career or it could lead to even better things. With Donald Brown now questionable with a concussion, Ryan Matthews (knee) still out and Danny Woodhead (broken fibula) on injured reserve, there’s plenty of opportunity for the rookie.

But if it is his one, brief, shining moment, it was an awfully good one. His 182 yards from scrimmage are the third most by a running back this season (and include a 50-yard reception).

But getting back to our previous subject — why are so many good backs drafted so low (or not at all)? — it’s interesting to compare the Top 5 rushers this season with the Top 5 passers in terms of what round they went in.

CURRENT TOP 5 RUSHERS

Yds Running Back, Team Round (Pick)
670 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 3rd (71)
460 Le’Veon Bell, Steelers 2nd (48)
404 Arian Foster, Texans UFA
396 Rashad Jennings, Giants 7th (250)
365 Frank Gore, 49ers 3rd (65)

CURRENT TOP 5 IN PASSER RATING

Rating Quarterback, Team Round (Pick)
116.3 Philip Rivers, Chargers 1st (4)
114.8 Aaron Rodgers, Packers 1st (24)
112.9 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 3rd (75)
109.0 Peyton Manning, Broncos 1st (1)
100.3 Andy Dalton, Bengals 2nd (35)

Huge contrast, no? On the quarterback side, you’ve got three No. 1s (two of them very high), a near No. 1 and a No. 3. And on the running back side, you’ve got a second-rounder, two third-rounders, a seventh-rounder and an undrafted free agent.

You hear all the time that the hardest position evaluate is quarterback. Well, on the basis of this, running backs may be even harder to get a read on.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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More than you ever wanted to know about coaching hires

Now that Dennis Allen has been asked to turn in his key fob in Oakland, after coaching the Raiders for a mere 36 games (28 of them losses), it might be a good time to talk about NFL coaching hires. It’s a fertile area for study, with plenty of data to analyze, yet little is ever written about it. Coaches come and coaches go — sometimes at a head-spinning rate — and everybody seems fine with that. Maybe it’s because they can’t score points in Fantasy Football.

Take this year’s seven new hires. At the quarter pole of Season 1, this is where they stand:

Coach,Team W-L
Jim Caldwell, Lions 3-1
Bill O’Brien, Texans 3-1
Mike Zimmer, Vikings 2-2
Mike Pettine, Browns 1-2
Jay Gruden, Redskins 1-3
Lovie Smith, Bucs 1-3
Ken Whisenhunt, Titans 1-3
Total 12-15

It’s just a snapshot, sure, but did anybody have much of a feel going into the season about which of these coaches would be successful right out of the chute and which wouldn’t? Along those same lines, would anyone wager much money on which of them — if any — will still be in their jobs, say, five years from now?

Obviously, no coach is an island. Winning takes a village, from the owner and general manager on down. Luck also factors in — especially when you get to draft Oliver Luck with the first pick of the draft instead of JaMarcus Russell or Tim Couch. Even so, there’s much about the selection of an NFL coach that’s just plain mysterious. Here’s why:

There’s no cone drill for a would-be coach to run, no Wonderlic test to take. He doesn’t get asked to jump as high as he can, hoist a barbell until his biceps bark or do anything particularly measurable — except maybe eat a 24-ounce porterhouse at Morton’s during the interview.

Think about it: Teams will put their first-round picks under a magnifying glass, looking for flaws with a jeweler’s scrutiny. The draft has become a national obsession fed by Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and scores of other gurus, amateur and professional. Whose stock is rising? Whose is falling? Should my team trade up? Trade down? Stockpile picks for next year, when talent pool is deeper? Fans take this stuff very seriously. Or to put it another way, you mock their mock draft at your peril.

None of that hysteria — or thoroughness, it would seem — surrounds the hiring of coaches. The Texans (O’Brien) and Bucs (Smith) had their men by Jan. 2, four days after the regular season ended. The other five openings were filled in the next three weeks (and it only took that long because the Browns dawdled before deciding on Pettine). Granted, there’s a practicality to settling on a coach as soon as possible: much work needs to be done. But it makes you wonder how much Deep Thinking is involved in the process, especially since it’s arguably the most crucial decision a club will make.

So why don’t we look at these hires a little more closely, not just the ones this year but all the hires in the 2000s. It gives us a nice-sized sample — 103 in all (interim coaches not included) — from which to spot patterns, draw conclusions and just bat around a subject that, to me, is strangely underexplored. Some of results, no doubt, will surprise you. Such as:

● 26 of the 103 coaches (25.2%) had a quarterback in their first season who either (a.) had started in the Super Bowl or (b.) would start in the Super Bowl. Seems like a lot, doesn’t it? (Of course, part of reason is that we have to include guys like Rex Grossman, Zimmer’s No. 3 in Cleveland, who started in the Super Bowl for the Bears seven seasons ago and, at this stage, is basically on emergency standby. Still, 26 past or future Super Bowl QBs — who would have guessed? And the number can only go up, depending on how some of these young guns (e.g. Luck, Robert Griffin III, Teddy Bridgewater, even Matthew Stafford, who’s still only 26) develop.

● The same number, 26 (25.2%), had a Top 3 draft pick their first year, and 12 (11.7 percent) had the first overall pick (as O’Brien and the Texans did this year).

● Fewer and fewer Super Bowl coaches are former NFL (or AFL) players. Twenty-three of the first 24 Super Bowls featured at least one coach who was an ex-player. The last 24 Super Bowls have been much different; only seven had a coach who had played in the league (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose NFL “career” consists of three games as a replacement during the 1987 strike).

● Average win total of first-year coaches: 7.1. (Read it and weep. Or perhaps not.)

● 61 (64.2 percent) of them, though, improved the team’s record that first season. You can see, then, why owners aren’t shy about firing coaches, even after one year. They usually get an immediate bump — in the short term, anyway.

OK, that’s enough for now. More — much more — as we go along.

Who gets hired?

When I started crunching the numbers, I had some preconceived notions. For one thing, I figured more offensive than defensive coaches would be getting jobs because the game is so tilted toward the offense. My reasoning: Better to have a head guy who knows quarterbacks and can take advantage of all the rules that favor that side of the ball. After all, defense can be such a fruitless proposition nowadays (though a handful of teams, the champion Seahawks first and foremost, play it well).

Anyway, I was wrong. For the 103 coaches hired since 2000, the offense/defense split is virtually identical: 52/51. This season, before the Allen firing, it was dead even: 16 O, 16 D.

I also thought recycled coaches would be more successful than first-timers. Just a hunch; I didn’t have anything concrete to base it on. (Kickers, it seems, are like that, too.) This time my suspicion was (mostly) right. Here’s how it breaks down:

First-time coaches: 66 (not counting the 2014 hires).

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 11 (16.7%), 4 winners (6.1%), 4-8 record (.333).

● Made it to the conference title game: 15 (22.7%), 11 winners (16.7%), 12-13 record (.480).

● Made the playoffs: 32 (48.5%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 48 (16.7%). This number might end up higher because there are still 22 active first-time coaches, several of whom — including Super Bowl winners Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens), Sean Payton (Saints) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) — have been quite successful. But it still takes your breath away.

● Finished at .500 or below: 40 of 48 (83.3%).

Recycled coaches: 30 (again, not counting the 2014 hires).

● Super Bowl: 6 (20%), 5 winners (16.7%), 8-3 record (.727).

● Conference title game: 7 (23.3%), 6 winners (20%), 11-5 record (.688).

● Playoffs: 16 (53.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 24 (33.3%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 16 of 24 (66.7%) Note: Nine recycled coaches are still active.

Admittedly, one coach — e.g. the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who has been to five Super Bowls and won three — can skew things. But even if you eliminated Belichick, you’d still have as many retreads as first-timers winning rings (4) — and a far higher percentage of them (13.3% to 6.1%).

You’re hired to get fired

There’s a reason people are always saying that, and it’s not just because it rhymes. Look at these figures:

● 30 of 66 first-time coaches (45.4%) — Allen being the latest — were gone within three years. (That includes four who bailed for college jobs and another who resigned rather than shuffle his staff.)

● 12 of 30 recycled coaches (46.7%) also lasted three seasons or less.

● And these percentages likely will increase depending on how the last three coaching classes, who haven’t reached the three-year threshold yet, fare.

Not For Long League, indeed.

Offensive coaches vs. defensive coaches

Offensive (48*):

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 9 (18.8%), 4 winners (8.3%), 5-5 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 10 (20.8%), 9 winners (18.8%), 10-5 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 22 (45.8%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 7 of 36 (19.4%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 29 of 36 (80.6%).

Defensive (48*):

● Super Bowl: 8 (16.7%), 5 winners (10.4%), 8-5 record (.615).

● Conference title game: 12 (25%), 8 winners (16.7%), 13-13 record (.500).

● Playoffs: 26 (54.2%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 9 of 35 (25.7%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 26 of 35 (74.3%).

*Not counting 2014 hires.

Again, there’s a Belichick Factor here, but even without him the group has 18 conference title game berths, three more than the offensive bunch. That’s because Tony Dungy (Colts), John Fox (Panthers/Broncos), Lovie Smith (Bears), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Rex Ryan (Jets) all went — or have gone — to two or more.

Note, too, that a significantly higher percentage of defensive coaches have made the playoffs (54.2 to 45.8).

In terms of longevity, here’s the comparison:

● 24 of 36 offensive coaches (66.7%) were fired by the end of their third season.

● 18 of 36 defensive coaches (50%) also never saw Year 4.

Note: 12 offensive and 12 defensive coaches are still on the job.

In-house hires

The sample sizes start to get smaller now. Just 18 coaches fall into this category, eight of whom started with the “interim” title before being given the job outright. (The only current one is the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett.) The breakdown:

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 3 of 18 (16.7%), 0 winners (0%), 0-3 record (.000).

● Made it to the conference title game 3 of 18 (16.7%), 3 winners (16.7%), 3-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 6 of 18 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 4 of 17 (23.5 percent). (Garrett is excluded because he’s still coaching.)

● Finished at .500 or below: 13 of 17 (76.5 percent).

● Lasted three seasons or less: 12 of 18 (66.7%).

Coaches who came from the college ranks

There have been 12 of these, an even smaller group.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 1 winner (8.3%), 1-1 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 2 winners (16.7%), 2-2 record (.500).

● Made the playoffs: 4 of 12 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 0 of 7 (0%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 7 of 7 (100 percent).

Note: 5 are still active, including the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll, the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh and the Eagles’ Chip Kelly.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 6 of 9 (66.7%). (Three of the active coaches are in their first or second year.)

Unemployed/retired coaches

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000). (Take a bow, Tom Coughlin.)

● Made it to the conference title game: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 10 (50%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 7 (28.6%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

Note: 3 are still on the sideline — the Giants’ Coughlin, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher and the Bucs’ Lovie Smith.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 8 (37.5%).

Coaches just fired by another team

This is the smallest bunch of all. I’m talking about guys who were hired immediately after losing a head job somewhere else.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 1 winner (14.3%), 1-1 record (.500). Any guesses who the two coaches are? Answer: Tony Dungy, who won with the Colts after being fired by the Bucs, and John Fox, who lost with the Broncos after being canned by the Panthers.

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 2 winners (28.6%), 2-1 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 5 (40%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 3 of 5 (60%).

Note: Fox and the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, cast off by the Eagles, are still gainfully employed.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 6 (50%). (Reid is in only his second season in Kansas City.)

Better, worse or the same?

How have coaches done in their first year, compared to the team’s previous season?

● Better record: 61 of 95 (64.2%).

● Same record: 6 of 95 (6.3%).

● Worse record: 28 of 95 (29.5%).

(Dom Capers’ first season with the Texans in 2002 is excluded because it was an expansion team.)

● Missed the playoffs: 69 of 96 (71.9%).

● Went to the playoffs: 27 of 96 (28.1%).

● Took team to the playoffs after it had missed them the season before: 20 of 95 (21.1%).

● Missed the playoffs after the team had gone the season before: 2 of 95 (2.1%).

(Again, Capers was excluded from the last two because the ’02 Texans didn’t have a “season before.”)

● Winning record: 31 of 96 (32.3%).

Of those 31, 25 went to the playoffs, two went with .500 (John Fox/2011 Broncos) or below (Pete Carroll/2010 Seahawks, 7-9) records and six missed them.

● .500 record: 13 of 96 (13.5%). So 44 of 96 (45.8%) finished .500 or better. (And Jeff Fisher just missed with the 2012 Rams at 7-8-1.)

What kind of draft situation do new coaches walk into?

● First overall pick: 12 of 103 (11.7%).

● Top 3 pick: 26 of 103 (25.2%).

● Top 5 pick: 38 of 103 (36.9%).

● Top 10 pick: 61 of 103 (59.2%).

● No first-round pick: 10 of 103 (9.7%).

● Worst top pick of any of the 103 coaches hired since 2000: 95th (Allen, Raiders, 2012). Yup, that’s a real plum job Dennis landed. (Oakland used the third-rounder to select guard Tony Bergstrom, who has started a grand total of one game.)

Taking Over a Winning Team

None of this year’s new coaches was fortunate enough to inherit a winning club, but since 2000:

● 16 of 102 have (15.7%). (Capers excluded.)

● 10 of the 16 (62.5%) went to the playoffs.

● 5 reached the conference title game (Jon Gruden/2002 Bucs, Bill Callahan/’02 Raiders, Norv Turner/’07 Chargers, Jim Caldwell/’09 Colts, Rex Ryan/’09 Jets).

● 3 made it to the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs, Callahan/’02 Raiders, Caldwell/’09 Colts).

● 1 won the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs).

● 4 other first-year coaches also went to the conference title game (Jim Mora Jr./’04 Falcons, Sean Payton/’06 Saints, John Harbaugh/’08 Ravens, Jim Harbaugh/’11 49ers). All of them lost. So 9 of 96 coaches (9.4%) went at least as far as the conference title game in their first season.

Moral No. 1: Changing coaches after a winning year isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world.

Moral No. 2: An almost 1-in-10 chance to get to the conference championship game — for a team that just brought in a new coach — sounds pretty good to me.

Some other factoids:

● Marc Trestman (2013 Bears) is the only coach since 2010 — 33 hires, counting the seven this year — to inherit a winning team. He took over a 10-6 club from Lovie Smith and went 8-8.

● Marty Schottenheimer is the last coach to be fired after a playoff season (14-2 with the ’06 Chargers). The two others this happened to: Tony Dungy (9-7 with the ’01 Bucs) and Steve Mariucci (10-6 — plus a first-round win) with the ’02 49ers.

● The luck of Herman Edwards: Both times he was hired as a head coach, he took over a team that had finished with a winning record the year before but had missed the playoffs — first with the ’01 Jets (9-7 in ’00 under Al Groh, who left for the University of Virginia), then with the ’06 Chiefs (10-6 in ’05 under Dick Vermeil, who retired once and for all). He went 10-6 in his first season with the Jets (and made the playoffs) and 9-7 in his first season with the Chiefs (and made the playoffs again). His team failed to advance both years.

● Vermeil retired twice after having a winning team — the ’99 Rams (successor: Mike Martz) and the ’05 Chiefs (Edwards). Jimmy Johnson (9-7, ’99 Dolphins), Bill Parcells (9-7, ’06 Cowboys), Joe Gibbs (9-7, ’07 Redskins) and Tony Dungy (12-4, ’08 Colts) also retired on a winning note. Five of those six teams made the playoffs (Vermeil’s ’05 Chiefs being the exception).

● Martz (2000 Rams) is the lone coach since 2000 to be handed a Super Bowl winner — or even a Super Bowl loser.

● 1993 was the last year at least half the coaches were former NFL/AFL players (14 of 28). The number has shrunk to six this season (again, not counting picket-line-crosser Payton). That’s 18.8 percent. In 1970, when the two leagues merged, it was 61.5 percent (16 of 26).

What do we make of this mountain of data? Whatever you will, I guess. But sifting through the numbers, an ideal candidate emerges (for me, anyway): a recycled coach from a defensive background who, in a perfect world, has just been fired. Or maybe he’s been out of the game for a season or two.

When you look at the seven new coaches, Lovie Smith comes closest to fitting the profile – the same Lovie, it pains me to add, who lost 56-14 to the Falcons two weeks ago. That’s why, no matter how teams go about them, these coaching searches are still a game of Blind Man’s Bluff. Somewhere out there, though, there has to be another Vince Lombardi, doesn’t there?

Postscript: Because I know you’re dying to find out, here are the 26 Super Bowl quarterbacks I referred to earlier.

First-year coaches who had Super Bowl QBs (past or future)

● Dave Campo, 2000 Cowboys — Troy Aikman (3-0 in the Super Bowl in the past).

● Mike Martz, 2000 Rams — Kurt Warner (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Bill Belichick, 2000 Patriots — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past).

● Mike Sherman, 2000 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past).

● Tony Dungy, 2000 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-2 in future).

● Marty Schottenheimer, 2002 Chargers — Drew Brees (1-0 in future).

● Bill Callahan, 2002 Raiders — Rich Gannon (0-1 in future — that season).

● Jon Gruden, 2002 Raiders — Brad Johnson (1-0 in future — that season).

● Tom Coughlin, 2004 Giants — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total). The Giants also drafted Eli Manning that year (2-0 in future).

● Norv Turner, 2004 Raiders — Kerry Collins (0-1 in past).

● Lovie Smith, 2004 Bears — Rex Grossman (0-1 in future).

● Mike Mularkey, 2004 Bills — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past)

● Romeo Crennel, 2005 Browns — Trent Dilfer (0-1 in past)

● Sean Payton, 2006 Saints — Drew Brees (1-0 in future)

● Brad Childress, 2006 Vikings — Brad Johnson (1-0 in past)

● Mike McCarthy, 2006 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past). Plus, the Packers had drafted Aaron Rodgers (1-0 in future) the year before.

● Ken Whisenhunt, 2007 Cardinals — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total).

● Mike Tomlin, 2007 Steelers — Ben Roethlisberger (1-0 in past, 1-1 in future, 2-1 total).

● John Harbaugh, 2008 Ravens — Joe Flacco (1-0 in future).

● Jim Caldwell, 2009 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Jim Mora Jr., 2009 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Pete Carroll, 2010 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Mike Shanahan, 2010 Redskins — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past). The Redskins also had Rex Grossman (0-1 in past) on the roster.

● Leslie Frazier, 2011 Vikings — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past).

● Mike Munchak, 2011 Titans — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

To boil it down further:

— 18 of the 96 first-year coaches (2000-13) had a QB who had started in the Super Bowl in the past (18.8%).

— 10 had a QB who won the Super Bowl in the past (10.4%).

— 12 had a QB who would start in the Super Bowl in the future (12.5%).

— 6 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl in the future (6.3%).

— 5 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl with them as coach (5.2%).

— The 5 coaches who had QBs with a Super Bowl in their past and future: Martz ’00 (Warner), Coughlin ’04 (Warner), Whisenhunt ’07 (Warner), Tomlin ’07 (Roethlisberger), Caldwell ’09 (P. Manning).

● The 3 coaches who had two past and/or future Super Bowl QBs on the roster: Coughlin ’04 (Warner, E. Manning), McCarthy ’06 (Favre, Rodgers), Shanahan ’10 (McNabb, Grossman).

For a fair number of first-year coaches, in other words, the cupboard is far from bare.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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A Sunday of safeties

How often are safeties — the two-point kind — a major topic of conversation on an NFL Sunday (or even a minor topic of conversation)? They factored mightily, though, in two Week 5 games. In fact, both came in the fourth quarter and put teams in position for comeback wins, one of them in overtime. Safeties don’t get much more momentous than that.

The Browns scored the first with 11:02 left when linebacker Tank Carder swooped in and blocked a punt by the Titans’ Brett Kern out of the end zone. That narrowed the Tennessee lead to 28-15. Two Brian Hoyer-to-Travis Benjamin touchdown passes followed, giving the Cleveland — which had once trailed 28-3 — a stunning 29-28 victory. (As an added bonus, it was the biggest comeback in franchise history and the biggest road comeback in NFL/AFL history.)

And just think: It might never have happened without Carder’s safety.

A little later, at the Superdome, the Saints were down 31-26 to the Bucs with 6:44 to go in regulation when linebacker Junior Galette sacked Mike Glennon in the end zone to make it a three-point game. Shayne Graham booted a 44-yard field goal to send it to OT tied at 31, and New Orleans’ Khiry Robinson ended it by running 18 yards for the deciding score.

You’ve gotta admit, few things in football are more scintillating than a timely safety.

The only way the day could have been better is if one of the safeties had come in overtime. We’ve only had three of those, the most recent by the Dolphins’ Cameron Wake last season vs. the Bengals. Details here, courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame website.

Safeties are kind of like a two-dollar bill. They change the arithmetic of a game. Granted, the two-point conversion also changes the math, but not nearly as dramatically. The latter, after all, gives a club only one additional point; it would have kicked the PAT, which is virtually automatic, anyway. Also, after a successful two-point conversion, you have to kick the ball away (unless, of course, you want to risk an onside kick). After a safety, you get to retain possession. The other team has to kick the ball to you. (Plus, it puts That Crazy Look in the eyes of your defense, which should never be underestimated.)

Funny thing is, when the NFL was getting going in the ’20s, the safety rule was much different. The play was still worth two points, but the team that gave up the safety, strangely enough, got to keep the ball. It was given a new set of downs starting from its 30.

The rule was changed in 1926 because clubs – pro and college both – were abusing it. If they were backed up in their own end late in the game and ahead by three or more, they’d take an intentional safety and run three more clock-killing plays. And if they were still comfortably ahead at that point, they could take another intentional safety and run three more plays. It was ridiculous. If you had a big enough lead, you could — theoretically, at least — keep taking intentional safeties and eat up the last several minutes of a game without having to lose possession.

Check out this excerpt from a New York Times story in 1925. It talks about the Giants, leading the Providence Steam Roller by a field goal in the closing minutes, pulling just such a stunt.

NYT description of safety, 1926

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That “Hinky” Haines was a crafty one. (I put Hinky in quotes because his nickname was usually spelled H-i-n-k-e-y.)

You might also get a kick out of this excerpt from a Chicago Tribune story on the Racine (Wis.) Legion’s 10-4 win over the Chicago Cardinals in 1923. It’s the only time in NFL history a team has scored four points in a game. (And the Cards had Racine quarterback Shorty Barr to thank for it.)

10-4 Game 2014-10-05 at 6.02.16 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even after the rewrite in 1926, the safety rule needed some tweaking. That was evident after the Redskins lost the 1945 championship game to the Cleveland Rams, 15-14, because Sammy Baugh threw a pass out of his end zone that struck one of the goal posts — which in those days were located on the goal line. (It was considered a safety, for some forgotten reason, if the ball landed in the end zone.)

You can see the play — sort of — in this brief clip. (It was a miserably cold day. Players huddled under straw on the sideline to keep from getting frostbite.)

Naturally, Washington owner George Preston Marshall lobbied at the next league meeting to amend the antiquated — and rarely enforced — rule. And his lodge brothers went along because, well, an incomplete pass is an incomplete pass, right? Why should it ever be a safety? (Unless, that is, the quarterback throwing out of the end zone is guilty of intentional grounding. See Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLVI.)

After that, the safety receded into history and became what it always should have been: a curiosity, a freak occurrence, a mint left on a defender’s pillow. There hasn’t been a 2-0 final score since 1938, the Bears edging the Packers, and the safety certainly hasn’t had many memorable moments over the decades.

The biggest safety I can think of in recent years is the one that helped the Titans break open the 1999 AFC title game against the Jaguars. Tennessee was up 17-14 midway through the third quarter when defensive tackles Josh Evans and Jason Fisk broke through and sacked Mark Brunell in the end zone. Then Derrick Mason returned the free kick 80 yards for a touchdown, and the Titans were on their way to their first and only Super Bowl. A screen shot of the play-by-play:

Screen shot of AFC title game in '99

One last factoid before you go: In 1929, when the Packers won their first NFL championship, they went undefeated (12-0-1) and outscored their opponents 198-22. At home, their defense was practically unscored on. In five games, they gave up only four points. Two safeties.

Last 2-0 game in 1938

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Murray in a hurry

How unusual are DeMarco Murray’s four 100-yard rushing days in the first four games of the NFL season? This unusual: No other active running back has done it.

Indeed, only one other back has done it in the 2000s. The short list of runners who have accomplished the feat since 1960:

BACKS WITH 4 100-YARD RUSHING DAYS IN FIRST 4 GAMES (SINCE 1960)

Year Running back, Team Att Yards Avg TD Proj. Yds Final Total*
2014 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 99 534 5.4 5 2,136 ?????
2003 Stephen Davis, Panthers 106 565 5.3 2 2,260 1,444
1997 Terrell Davis, Broncos 95 526 5.5 3 2,104 1,750
1995 Emmitt Smith, Cowboys 88 543 6.2 9 2,172 1,773*
1985 James Wilder, Bucs 102 497 4.9 2 1,988 1,300
1975 O.J. Simpson, Bills 118 697 5.9 5 2,788 1,817*
1973 O.J. Simpson, Bills 102 647 6.3 4 2,588 2,003*

*led league

As you can see, there are two Hall of Famers here (Smith and Simpson) and two 2,000-yard rushers (Davis in 1998 and Simpson in 14 games in ’73). So Murray is in pretty good company. As you also can see, none of the backs came within 300 yards of their projected total (based on their four-game figure). So DeMarco likely will fall considerably short of 2,136.

(FYI: Davis’ streak came in his first four games with the Panthers after signing with them as a free agent. Carolina went all the way to the Super Bowl that season — and nearly upset the Patriots.)

What Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has to be careful of is playing too much with his New Favorite Toy. After all, Murray is on pace for 396 carries, which would be the seventh-highest total of all time — and nearly twice as many as he’s ever had in a season (217). The group he would join:

MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS IN A SEASON

Year Running back, Team Carries
2006 Larry Johnson, Chiefs 416
1998 Jamal Anderson, Falcons 410
1984 James Wilder, Bucs 407
1986 Eric Dickerson, Rams 404
2000 Eddie George, Titans 403
1985 Gerald Riggs, Falcons 397
2014 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 396*

*projected

Seasons like these aren’t usually conducive to long-term productivity. Johnson, for instance, never had another 1,000-yard year, and Anderson, Wilder and Riggs had only one. As for George, he was a diminished back after that, averaging just 3.2 yards a carry in his remaining four seasons. Dickerson is the outlier, topping 1,000 yards three more times and winning the rushing title in 1988. Not coincidentally, he’s the only one in Canton (or likely to get there).

At any rate, it’s something for the Cowboys to think about. Murray is just 26, and he’s been used humanely up to now. He could be capable of a few more seasons like this if they don’t run him into the ground.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Why the Falcons eased up on the Bucs

One thing you never want to do in the NFL, funny as this might sound, is beat a team by too many points — by, like, 50 or more. The Falcons had that opportunity against the Bucs in Week 3, building a 56-0 lead through three quarters, and you could see they wanted no part of it. They basically said, “No mas,” put in backup quarterback T.J. Yates (who generously threw a pick-six) and gladly settled for a 56-14 win.

I say “gladly” because, well, look at the historical record. You’d think a 50-point margin would mean there’s a sizable gap between the two clubs. It’s the kind of blowout you might get if, oh, an expansion team had to play the defending Super Bowl champs in its NFL debut. (But only if the defending champs were total bullies.)

And yet, five times since 1940 a club that’s been clobbered by 50 or more points has beaten its clobberer the next time they met — either later the same year or the following season. (Hell hath no fury like a team that’s been annihilated.) Stunning, no? After all, there have been only 23 losses of this magnitude in the last 75 years, playoffs included; so we’re talking about 1 in 5 odds, roughly, that the squashed-like-a bug club will get immediate payback.

Heck, it almost happened last season. In 2012, you may recall, the Cardinals dropped a 58-0 squeaker to the Seahawks, committing eight turnovers and failing to advance beyond Seattle’s 37-yard line. As stinkers go, it was sulfur dioxide. But in Week 16 last year, in the Cards’ second meeting with the ’Hawks since the Great Embarrassment, they upset the Super Bowl winners-to-be, 17-10, at CenturyLink Field — Seattle’s only loss in its last 20 home games.

Without further ado, then, here are, arguably, the Five Greatest Extractors of Revenge in modern pro football history:

● 1977 Falcons — In the next-to-last game of ’76, the Los Angeles Rams steamrolled them 59-0 at the Coliseum (and outgained them by nearly 500 yards, 569-81). The Falcons — and their Grits Blitz defense — got even in the ’77 opener in Atlanta, handing the Rams a 17-6 defeat. The L.A. quarterback that day: Joe Namath. Margin of first game: 59. Point swing between the two games: 70.

● 1981 Packers — Late in the ’80 season, the Bears hammered them 61-7 at Soldier Field, the most one-sided game ever between the two ancient rivals. When the Pack returned to Chicago in Week 1 of ’81, they turned the tables on the Bears, 16-9. Margin of first game: 54. Point swing: 61.

● 1990 Houston Oilers — The feud in the ’80s and ’90s between Bengals coach Sam Wyche and Oilers counterpart Jerry Glanville was one of the most entertaining of all time. Wyche considered Glanville “probably the biggest phony in professional football,” and Jerry’s feelings toward Sam weren’t much warmer. So when Cincinnati got the chance near the end of the ’89 season, it poured it on Houston, onside kicking with a huge lead, booting a needless field goal in the final seconds and burying the Oilers 61-7 at Riverfront Stadium. The next time the clubs crossed paths, the following season in the Astrodome, Glanville was no longer in Houston. (He’d moved on to Atlanta and been replaced by Jack Pardee.) Too bad. He missed seeing Warren Moon toss five touchdown passes in a 48-17 rout of Wicky Wacky’s Bengals. Margin of first game: 54. Point swing: 85.

● 1979 Jets — In the second game of the season, the explosive Patriots pummeled the Jets 56-3 in Foxborough as Steve Grogan threw for TDs of 49, 37, 50, 44 and 28 yards. The rematch at Shea Stadium produced a much different result: a 27-26 Jets win that killed the Pats’ playoff chances. Margin of first game: 53. Point swing: 54.

● 1989 Steelers — Everything went wrong for Pittsburgh in its opener, a 51-0 loss to the Browns at Three Rivers Stadium. It gave the ball away eight times, managed just 53 offensive yards and watched in horror as the Cleveland defense scored three touchdowns (two on fumbles, one on an interception). Five weeks later, the Steelers rebounded to beat the Browns on the road 17-7, thanks to seven takeaways of their own. Margin of first game: 51. Point swing: 61.

Others of note:

● 1954 Baltimore Colts — It wasn’t just that the Rams obliterated the Colts 48-0 in Week 1 (in Baltimore, no less); it was that their first score, an 80-yard bomb from Norm Van Brocklin to Skeet Quinlan, came on a now-illegal Hideout Play. Quinlan stayed on the Los Angeles sideline until just before the snap, then stepped inbounds and darted downfield, uncovered.

The teams met again in L.A. in December. There wasn’t much to play for except pride; both were out of the championship hunt. The Colts had a little extra incentive, though, and avenged their earlier stomping, 22-21, on a late field goal. (I’d love to see Artie Donovan’s bar bill after that one.) Margin of first game: 48. Point swing: 49.

● 1981 49ers — In ’80, when the Niners were still a work in progress (and Steve DeBerg was still their quarterback), the Cowboys crushed them 59-14 in Dallas. But the next year, with Joe Montana at QB and rookie cornerback Ronnie Lott terrorizing receivers, San Francisco broke the Cowboys’ hearts twice at Candlestick Park — 45-14 in the regular season and 28-27 in the NFC title game – en route to winning the Super Bowl. Margin of first game: 45. Point swing: 76.

Finally, there are the 1961 Detroit Lions. Can’t forget about them. They got ambushed 49-0 in Week 3 when the 49ers unleashed their innovative Shotgun offense. In the Week 8 sequel, however, the Lions rose up in all their fury and . . . tied the Niners in San Francisco, 20-20. Ask yourself: Has there been a more satisfying deadlock in the annals of the game? Margin of first game: 49. Point swing: Ditto.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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2-14 has stopped meaning what it used to mean

Until recently, a 2-14 season was a pretty deep hole for an NFL team to escape from. (Anybody got a pulley?) In the last few years, though, we’ve seen some of the quickest turnarounds in league history. Let me refresh your memory:

● After going 2-14 in 2011, the Colts changed coaches (Jim Caldwell/Chuck Pagano) and quarterbacks (Peyton Manning*/Andrew Luck) and earned a wild-card berth with an 11-5 record.

● Following a 2-14 bottoming-out in 2012, the Chiefs changed coaches (Romeo Crennel/Andy Reid) and quarterbacks (Matt Cassel-Brady Quinn/Alex Smith) and also earned a wild-card berth with an 11-5 mark.

● And now the Texans, 2-14 a year ago, are off to a 2-0 start with their new coach (Bill O’Brien) and new quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Looking at their remaining schedule — which includes home-and-homes against the Jaguars and Titans and only four games against clubs that made the playoffs last season — an above-.500 record, and possibly even a division title, seems within reach. (Assuming, that is, they continue to stay reasonably healthy, which is always a dicey assumption.)

Compare this to the first 33 years of the 16-game schedule (1978-2010). In those three-plus decades, only two 2-14 teams — two of 23 — posted a winning record the next season and only one made the playoffs: the Patriots in the ’82 strike year, when they got help from a snowplow operator to beat the Dolphins 3-0 in a crucial game.

Snowplow Guy in New England

That, basically, is what it took for a 2-14 club to go playoff-ing the next season: a guy to get work-released from prison so he could steer a tractor across a snowy field and clear ground for the home kicker. Leigh Montville’s column in The Boston Globe the next day was priceless. It began thusly:

He started to become famous when he hit the 20-yard line.

He was not famous when he started the little John Deere 314 tractor, still not famous when he put the automatic shift into drive, but by the time Mark Henderson reached the 20, the frozen hearts at Schaefer Stadium realized what he was doing, and he was on his way. Absolute strangers would be asking Mark Henderson, 24, of Walpole to “sign my forehead” before yesterday afternoon was finished.

“What made you do what you did?” this sudden, surprise hero was asked after he had helped the New England Patriots to their 3-0 upset win over the Miami Dolphins. “What started you going?”

“I just heard a voice,” Mark Henderson said. “Someone shouted to me to get out there and clear the snow. And I just went.”

Alas, most 2-14 teams don’t reach the postseason the following year by divine intervention, aren’t rescued by a convicted burglar hearing voices. Indeed, many of them go right on being bad, even worse. Like these four:

2-14 TEAMS THAT WON TWO OR FEWER GAMES THE NEXT SEASON

Year Team (W-L) Changes Made Next Year
2008 Rams (2-14) New coach 1-15
1985 Bucs (2-14) New quarterback 2-14
1981 Colts (2-14) New coach, quarterback 0-8-1
1978 49ers (2-14) New coach 2-14

Keep in mind, though, that the Niners had the happiest of endings. Bill Walsh took over as coach in ’79, drafted Joe Montana in the third round that year and the rest, as they say, is history. Other 2-14 clubs also went to the Super Bowl not long afterward — four seasons later for the ’81 and ’92 Patriots and five for the ’85 Bills.

Maybe that will happen for Colts, Chiefs and/or Texans in the next few years. But regardless, it’s comforting to know the worm has turned. No longer is a 2-14 season like beginning of a lengthy prison term (where if you’re lucky they might let you out on Sunday afternoons to drive a snow plow around an NFL field).

At least, not necessarily.

*Granted, Manning didn’t play in 2011 because of a neck injury; Curtis Painter did (mostly). But the decision was between Manning and Luck, not Painter and Luck.

WHAT 2-14 TEAMS DID THE FOLLOWING YEAR

1978-10 2011-12
2-14 teams 23 4
Above .500 the next season 2 2
Playoffs the next season 1 2

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Friday Night Fights II: Mark Gastineau vs. Alonzo Highsmith, 1996

Now we’re getting to the Good Stuff. This was one of those classic Shield vs. Shield bouts, as Roger Goodell would put it, between two former NFL players — Mark Gastineau, the erstwhile Jets sack dancer, and Alonzo Highsmith, who’d had a more modest career as a running back after the Oilers took him third overall in the 1987 draft.

Both had a fair number of pro fights under their belts, though Gastineau’s were more of the State Fair variety. Indeed, Mark (15-1 with 15 knockouts) hadn’t fought in 2 ½ years. He’d supposedly gone into the gym — after a four-round no-decision against the immortal Craig Thurber in Topeka — to learn some ring craft and had emerged, at the age of 39, a more polished pugilist.

Highsmith, eight years younger and 31 ½ pounds lighter (223 ½ to Gastineau’s 255), had a somewhat better track record (15-0-1 with 13 KOs), but that’s not saying much. Two of his recent victims had records of 2-24 (Jim Wisniewski) and 0-23 (Ed Strickland) when they climbed between the ropes. In fact, Strickland was winless in 30 career bouts.

The Gastineau-Highsmith tussle took place Nov. 3, 1996, in Urayasu, Japan, outside Tokyo. Believe it or not, it was on the undercard of George Foreman’s bout against Crawford Grimsley for Foreman’s dime-store IBA and WBU titles. George, 47, won a unanimous 12-round decision, but laced up his gloves only twice more before returning his full attention to selling grills.

Our two gladiators are ready to rumble. Let’s go to the ring for the introductions:

Once again, the beginning of the end for Gastineau:

Bruce Keidan in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Highsmith is no great boxer, but compared to Gastineau he is Sugar Ray Robinson. . . .

“Gastineau didn’t even know how to quit,” an eyewitness reports. “He finally sat down. You’ve heard of guys taking a knee? He took a buttock.”

“The referee was counting in Japanese,” another reports. “Gastineau couldn’t be sure when it was safe to get up. So he just stayed down until he was sure the referee was done counting.”

Obviously, the second report was embellished. The referee, Tom Vacca “from Ashland, Ohio,” most definitely counted in English. But at that point, Gastineau was so groggy it probably sounded like Japanese.

Highsmith went on to fight 13 more times, against better competition, before calling it quits. Final record: 27-1-2 with 23 KOs. But for Gastineau it was his last bout — and wisely so. A better matchup for him would have been Sylvester Stallone — with the winner getting Brigitte Nielsen.

Screen Shot 2014-09-12 at 1.17.09 PMStallone and Nielsen

 

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