“I have been knocked out five times in my seven years of pro football, and at one time or another I have played with a broken jaw, a shoulder separation and assorted cracked ribs. . . . My hands are no larger than my wife’s, and I wouldn’t say hers are large for a woman. . . . Size helps but it isn’t everything, except maybe in a hog-growing contest.”
— Hall of Fame wideout Tommy McDonald
Sports Illustrated ran “The Monsters and Me” — a first-person piece by Tommy McDonald, the Eagles’ Hall of Fame receiver — in 1964. His ghostwriter was Tex Maule, the magazine’s NFL guy. If you’ve got a few minutes, check it out. It’s worth your while.
McDonald was a small (5-foot-9, 178 pounds), utterly fearless wideout who, at that point in his career, had 66 touchdown receptions. Nobody remembers today, but no receiver in NFL history had caught that many TD passes in his first seven seasons, not even Don Hutson (53). In fact, Tommy still ranks in the Top 10 in this department. Wait until you see who he’s tied with:
MOST TOUCHDOWN CATCHES, FIRST SEVEN SEASONS
Seasons
Receiver
Team (s)
TD
1985-91
Jerry Rice
49ers
93
1998-04
Randy Moss
Vikings
90
1962-68
Lance Alworth
Chargers (AFL)
73
1996-02
Marvin Harrison
Colts
73
1996-02
Terrell Owens
49ers
72
1965-71
Bob Hayes
Cowboys
67
1957-63
Tommy McDonald
Eagles
66
2007-13
Calvin Johnson
Lions
66
1959-65
Art Powell
Raiders (AFL), 2 others
66
2004-10
Larry Fitzgerald
Cardinals
65
1988-94
Sterling Sharpe
Packers
65
Yup, Megatron himself.
McDonald was renowned for playing without a facemask — to the very end of his career in 1968. If you want proof, here he is in his next-to-last season with the Falcons (1967) and his final year with the Browns:
Occasionally you’ll see a photo of him with a facemask, but there’s an explanation for that. “Sometimes,” he said in The Pro Football Chronicle, “I’d crack mine [helmet], and the Eagles didn’t have a replacement for me. So I had to borrow one from a teammate. I had a very small head, 6 ¾. I’d take a towel, or half a towel, and stuff it in there to make it fit. That’s the only time I’d wear a facemask.”
In the SI story, McDonald mentions a scoring grab he made for Oklahoma against Texas in 1956, the year he finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, that “someone said . . . was so far out in front of me I caught it with my fingerprints, not my fingertips.” Here’s the video of that, in case you’re interested:
And just think: “I have played for years,” he said, “without the tip of my left thumb. I lost it in an accident with that motorbike Dad gave me.”
In ’57 the Eagles drafted McDonald in the third round and Sonny Jurgensen in the fourth. Both, of course, are now in Canton. Can’t do much better than that. Sonny once told me he and Tommy had a drill they liked to run. They’d sit in a darkened room, back to back, and Sonny would flip a football over his head.
“Tommy never dropped it,” he said. “Not once.”
Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Pro Football Chronicle.
Now we’re getting to the Good Stuff. This was one of those classic Shield vs. Shield bouts, as Roger Goodell would put it, between two former NFL players — Mark Gastineau, the erstwhile Jets sack dancer, and Alonzo Highsmith, who’d had a more modest career as a running back after the Oilers took him third overall in the 1987 draft.
Both had a fair number of pro fights under their belts, though Gastineau’s were more of the State Fair variety. Indeed, Mark (15-1 with 15 knockouts) hadn’t fought in 2 ½ years. He’d supposedly gone into the gym — after a four-round no-decision against the immortal Craig Thurber in Topeka — to learn some ring craft and had emerged, at the age of 39, a more polished pugilist.
Highsmith, eight years younger and 31 ½ pounds lighter (223 ½ to Gastineau’s 255), had a somewhat better track record (15-0-1 with 13 KOs), but that’s not saying much. Two of his recent victims had records of 2-24 (Jim Wisniewski) and 0-23 (Ed Strickland) when they climbed between the ropes. In fact, Strickland was winless in 30 career bouts.
The Gastineau-Highsmith tussle took place Nov. 3, 1996, in Urayasu, Japan, outside Tokyo. Believe it or not, it was on the undercard of George Foreman’s bout against Crawford Grimsley for Foreman’s dime-store IBA and WBU titles. George, 47, won a unanimous 12-round decision, but laced up his gloves only twice more before returning his full attention to selling grills.
Our two gladiators are ready to rumble. Let’s go to the ring for the introductions:
Once again, the beginning of the end for Gastineau:
“Gastineau didn’t even know how to quit,” an eyewitness reports. “He finally sat down. You’ve heard of guys taking a knee? He took a buttock.”
“The referee was counting in Japanese,” another reports. “Gastineau couldn’t be sure when it was safe to get up. So he just stayed down until he was sure the referee was done counting.”
Obviously, the second report was embellished. The referee, Tom Vacca “from Ashland, Ohio,” most definitely counted in English. But at that point, Gastineau was so groggy it probably sounded like Japanese.
Highsmith went on to fight 13 more times, against better competition, before calling it quits. Final record: 27-1-2 with 23 KOs. But for Gastineau it was his last bout — and wisely so. A better matchup for him would have been Sylvester Stallone — with the winner getting Brigitte Nielsen.
Statistics were invented for a player like DeAngelo Hall. He isn’t that rare Shutdown Corner everybody lusts for — a Darrelle Revis or a Richard Sherman — and at going-on-31 his Pro Bowl years are probably behind him. The Redskins, strapped for cap dollars, deemed him expendable enough to release him during the 2013 offseason, though he eventually re-signed with them and played well enough to earn a four-year extension.
But Hall does have value, even if it’s declining. He may not be a great cover man, but he’s durable and — here’s where the stats come in — opportunistic. In fact, he’s the football equivalent of that guy at the beach with the metal detector. He’s always finding “loose change” by hanging around the ball. And he’s especially good at doing something with said ball once he latches onto it.
Stat No. 1: Because Hall came out of Virginia Tech early and was 20 when he played in his first NFL game, he played 143 games in his 20s. That gave him an unusual amount of time to make his statistical mark, and he took advantage of it. Consider: Since the big rule changes in 1978, the ones that turned the league into a Picnic for Passers, only one pure corner has had more picks in his 20s than DeAngelo did. The Top 10 looks like this:
MOST INTERCEPTIONS BY A CORNERBACK IN HIS 20S SINCE 1978
Seasons
Cornerback
Teams(s)
Ints
1981-88
Everson Walls
Cowboys
44
2004-13
DeAngelo Hall
Falcons, Raiders, Redskins
42
1999-07
Champ Bailey
Redskins, Broncos
42
2003-10
Asante Samuel
Patriots, Eagles
42
1992-00
Terrell Buckley
Packers, Dolphins, Broncos
38
1991-97
Aeneas Williams
Cardinals
38
1996-03
Donnie Abraham
Bucs, Jets
36
1988-95
Eric Allen
Eagles, Saints
35
1995-03
Ty Law
Patriots
35
1989-96
Deion Sanders
Falcons, 49ers, Cowboys
34
Note: Ronnie Lott (43) and Ray Buchanan (38) aren’t included because they got some of their interceptions at the safety spot (enough, at least, to take them below the cutoff of 34).
Granted, Hall has a tendency to gamble, but 42 picks are 42 picks, particularly in an era with low interception rates and a ton of one-possession games. Often, One More Takeaway can be the difference between victory and defeat. That’s what Hall, for all his flaws, gives you.
Stat No. 2: Last season Hall ran back two interceptions and one fumble for touchdowns. That brought his career totals in those categories to five and four. Only one other player in NFL history has returned at least four INTs and four fumbles for scores. Here are the 11 with 3 or more of each:
PLAYERS WITH 3 INTERCEPTION TDS AND 3 FUMBLE TDS, CAREER
Seasons
Player
Team (s)
Int TD
Fum TD
1997-12
Ronde Barber
Bucs
8
4
2004-14
DeAngelo Hall
Falcons, Raiders, Redskins
5
4
1997-11
Jason Taylor
Dolphins, Redskins, Jets
3
6
2000-09
Mike Brown
Bears, Chiefs
4
3
2000-09
Adalius Thomas
Ravens, Patriots
3
3
1991-04
Aeneas Williams
Cardinals, Rams
9
3
1988-00
Cris Dishman
Oilers, Redskins, 2 others
3
3
1989-98
Anthony Parker
Vikings, 4 others
4
3
1969-81
Bill Thompson
Broncos
3
4
1970-82
Lemar Parrish
Bengals, Redskins, Bills
4
3
1964-79
Paul Krause
Redskins, Vikings
3
3
Not a bad bunch. Williams and Krause are in the Hall of Fame, Taylor is surely headed there and I’ve never quite understood why Parrish’s eight Pro Bowls and excellence as a returner don’t merit him serious consideration. Also, did you notice that five of the 11 played at one time or another for the Redskins (for whatever that’s worth)?
Anyway, like I said, DeAngelo Hall was made for stats.
Giovani Bernard had another Giovani Bernard Game in the Bengals’ Week 1 win over the Ravens: 14 rushes for 48 yards, 6 receptions for 62 yards and 110 yards from scrimmage. Just starting his second season, Bernard has yet to have a 100-yard game rushing or receiving; but he’s had five 100-yard games rushing and receiving, playoffs included (and two others in which he’s gained 99 and 95 yards from scrimmage).
Something I didn’t know until researched it: Bernard last season was just the 10th rookie back in NFL history to gain 500 yards rushing and 500 receiving. And one of the 10, Herschel Walker, was really a fourth-year pro coming out of the USFL, so I’m more inclined to think of Giovani as the ninth. But I’ll leave that call up to you. The list:
ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WITH 500 YARDS RUSHING AND 500 RECEIVING
Year
Running back
Team
Rush
Rec
2013
Giovani Bernard
Bengals
695
514
2006
Reggie Bush
Saints
565
742
1999
Edgerrin James
Colts
1,553
586
1994
Marshall Faulk
Colts
1,282
522
1986
Herschel Walker
Cowboys
737
837
1980
Earl Cooper
49ers
720
567
1980
Billy Sims
Lions
1,303
621
1965
Gale Sayers
Bears
867
507
1964
Charley Taylor
Redskins
755
814
1960
Abner Haynes
Texans (AFL)
875
576
Several things jump out at you. First, there are three Hall of Famers — Faulk, Sayers and Taylor — though Charley got in as a wide receiver. And James, with the numbers he put up, might make it four.
Second, Taylor is the only rookie who’s had 750 yards rushing and 750 receiving — and he did it 50 years ago in a 14-game season. What a player.
Third, I usually disregard early AFL stats. The league simply wasn’t on a par with the NFL yet. But Haynes — along with the Raiders’ Clem Daniels — is an underappreciated run-catch threat from that era. In the next four seasons, he averaged 15 yards a grab (on 140 receptions). He wasn’t, in other words, just a swing-pass guy. Coach Hank Stram would flank him out, as he did here in the ’62 AFL title game:
We all have our weaknesses. One of mine is for running backs who are multi-dimensional, who give you a little of this and a little of that. Bernard certainly fits that description. What’s surprising is how few backs in the 2000s, rookies or veterans, have had more than one of these 500/500 seasons. (I count 14.) Blame it on all the teams that split the position between a Running Specialist and a Receiving Specialist.
At any rate, only five active backs — the infamous Ray Rice included — have had at least two 500/500 seasons. Here’s that group:
500/500 SEASONS (ACTIVE BACKS)
Running back
Team
Seasons
Ray Rice*
Ravens
3
Reggie Bush
Saints, Lions
2
Matt Forte
Bears
2
Arian Foster
Texans
2
LeSean McCoy
Eagles
2
*suspended indefinitely
(Note: Earlier in the 2000s, the Giants’ Tiki Barber had five of these seasons and the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook four. The record is six by Faulk.)
No one would suggest Bernard is a great player. He’s merely the kind who Moves the Ball — whichever way it needs to be moved. There are worse things you can say about a back.
Hope you enjoyed Colin Kaepernick breaking out the option Sunday during the 49ers’ 28-17 win over the Cowboys. OK, so it didn’t gain any yards. In fact, his pitch to LaMichael James resulted in a 1-yard loss. But it’s the thought that counts.
Here’s the Lions’ Greg Landry having a bit more success with it in 1973:
Now that’s how to run the option. Landry rushed for over 500 yards in consecutive (14-game) seasons in ’71 and ’72, a first for an NFL quarterback. The running back who took the pitch on the first play, as Howard Cosell pointed out, was Altie Taylor.
Walter Payton (16,726) and Emmitt Smith (18,355) pushed the NFL career rushing record so high that, in the new millennium, 10,000 yards means you’re barely halfway to the top. When Jim Brown (12,312) was the all-time leader from 1961 to ’84, the milestone was a much bigger deal.
Consider: Through the ’95 season — the league’s 76th — just 10 backs had broken the 10,000 barrier. Only one isn’t in the Hall of Fame (and if you’d seen him as a rookie, when he rushed for 1,605 electric yards, you would have sworn he was a shoo-in).
10,000-YARD RUSHERS THROUGH 1995
Yards
Running Back
Team(s)
Years
Hall of Fame?
16,726
Walter Payton
Bears
1975-87
Yes*
13,259
Eric Dickerson
Rams, Colts, 2 others
1983-93
Yes*
12,739
Tony Dorsett
Cowboys, Broncos
1977-88
Yes*
12,312
Jim Brown
Browns
1957-65
Yes*
12,120
Franco Harris
Steelers, Seahawks
1972-84
Yes*
11,352
John Riggins
Jets, Redskins
1971-85
Yes
11,236
O.J. Simpson
Bills, 49ers
1969-79
Yes*
10,908
Marcus Allen
Raiders, Chiefs
1982-95
Yes*
10,273
Ottis Anderson
Cardinals, Giants
1979-92
No
10,172
Barry Sanders
Lions
1989-95
Yes*
*first year of eligibility
Note that eight of the 10 were elected to the Hall in their first year of eligibility (and Riggins made it in his second).
Since then, 19 more backs have joined the 10,000 Club — including the 49ers’ Frank Gore on Sunday against the Cowboys — which brings the membership to 29. It’s not so exclusive anymore, and that’s reflected in the fact that just six of those 19 are either in Canton or total locks for the place once they’re eligible. The breakdown:
● Already enshrined (4): Emmitt Smith (18,355), Curtis Martin (14,101), Marshall Faulk (12,279), Thurman Thomas (12,074).
● Destined to be enshrined (2): LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684), Adrian Peterson (10,190).
● Has been a finalist but hasn’t been voted in (1): Jerome Bettis (13,662).
● Maybe someday (1): Edgerrin James (12,246).
● Little to no chance, unless the Veterans Committee champions their cause (11): Fred Taylor (11,695), Corey Dillon (11,241), Warrick Dunn (10,967), Steven Jackson (10,730), Ricky Watters (10,643), Jamal Lewis (10,607), Thomas Jones (10,591), Tiki Barber (10,449), Eddie George (10,441), Frank Gore (10,030), Ricky Williams (10,009).
(If it were up to me, I’d give serious consideration to Barber. He’s 10th all time among backs in yards from scrimmage with 15,632 and also did some returning. But I don’t think the selectors are so inclined.)
As for Gore, he’s had a terrific career with seven 1,000-yard seasons and five Pro Bowls, but he’s really had only one monster year — 2006, when he rushed for 1,695 yards and gained 2,180 from scrimmage. None of his other seasons have come within 600 yards of that second figure (best: 1,538). Maybe he’ll have enough staying power put up Undeniable Numbers, but it doesn’t look like it.
At least he made it to 10,000, though, which may not be as rare as it once was but can still prove elusive to even the best backs. Earl Campbell (9,407), for instance, broke down before he got there — which didn’t, of course, keep him out of the Hall. And in recent years, Clinton Portis (an agonizingly close 9,923) and Shaun Alexander (9,453) have fallen short
It’s still a remarkable feat of endurance, never mind talent, whether it leads to Canton or not. Those are large men, after all, who are hitting you, and the ground isn’t exactly a mattress.
Sure, the Cardinals and Steelers missed the playoffs last year, but they did go 6-2 in the second half. (Not to sound like a Holiday Inn Express commercial or anything.) That was the best record by any team that didn’t qualify for the postseason. How much does this mean, though? Are these clubs on the verge of greater things, or does a strong finish one year have little bearing on the next?
Let’s look at the previous four years and the teams that earned this distinction:
Year Team (W-L)
2nd Half
Next Season
2012 Cowboys (8-8)
5-3
8-8
2012 Panthers (7-9)
5-3
12-4
2011 Cardinals (8-8)
6-2
5-11
2010 Chargers (9-7)
6-2
8-8
2009 Titans (8-8)
6-2
6-10
A bit surprising, you have to admit. Three went backward the next year, one stayed stuck in its 8-8 rut and the other — the Panthers — won the division title (and got a first-round bye in the playoffs).
But that’s a rather small sample size. So I researched the matter further — back to 1990, when the playoffs were expanded to 12 entrants. A total of 39 clubs in those 24 seasons fell into the Best Second-Half Record By A Non-Playoff Team category (accounting for ties). Here’s how they did the following year:
Made playoffs
15
Missed playoffs
24
Wild card
7
Division champion
8
Reached conference title game
5
Reached Super Bowl
3
Won Super Bowl
1
As you can see, almost two-third of the clubs (61.5 percent) failed to qualify for the playoffs the next season. The last four years, in other words, are no aberration. For teams such as these, there simply isn’t much of a carry-over effect. Indeed, 24 of them — the same 61.5 percent — failed to improve their record the following season, much less make the playoffs. (Fifteen were better, 19 were worse and five posted the same mark.)
The clubs that reached the Super Bowl, by the way, were the 1998 Falcons (7-9 the year before, 6-2 in the second half), 2003 Patriots (9-7/5-3) and ’08 Cardinals (8-8/5-3). And the only one that walked off with the Lombardi Trophy, of course, was the ’03 Pats, who had won it just two seasons earlier (and would win it again in ’04).
The moral: Don’t get your hopes too high if your team finishes its season on an upswing. It could lead to greater success, but the odds are against it. Why? Oh, you could probably come up with a bunch of reasons — injuries, free-agent defections, a tougher schedule, bad luck, and on and on. Then, too, winning games when you’re out of the running – as many of these clubs were – is a lot like gaining yards when you’re hopelessly behind. They might make things look a little better, but looks can be deceiving.
Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book
It’s always educational to go back in time and see where the NFL was, say, 50 years ago and how it compares to today. So I decided to find out who the career leaders were in various offensive categories at the start of the 1964 season, just for kicks. What did it take to make the all-time Top 10 back then? Which players had fallen through the cracks of history? I learned plenty, I must say. Why don’t we begin with the running backs (since they were so much bigger a deal in the ’60s)?
Most rushing yards at the start of the 1964 season
At the start of 2014
9,322 Jim Brown
18,355 Emmitt Smith
8,378 Joe Perry
16,726 Walter Payton
5,860 Steve Van Buren
15,269 Barry Sanders
5,599 Jim Taylor
14,101 Curtis Martin
5,534 Rick Casares
13,684 LaDainian Tomlinson
5,518 John Henry Johnson
13,662 Jerome Bettis
5,233 Hugh McElhenny
13,259 Eric Dickerson
4,565 Ollie Matson
12,739 Tony Dorsett
4,428 Alex Webster
12,312 Jim Brown
4,315 J.D. Smith
12,279 Marshall Faulk
Think about it: To be one of the Top 10 rushers in NFL history half a century ago, all you needed was 4,315 yards. Adrian Peterson surpassed that by the end of his third season (4,484). Eric Dickerson nearly got there in his second (3,913). By current standards, it’s not that much yardage. (Consider: Among active backs, the Colts’ Ahmad Bradshaw is closest to Smith’s total with 4,418. That ranks him 160th all time.)
But it was a significant amount of yardage in 1964, the league’s 45th year. Careers were shorter. Seasons were shorter. Only the rare player (e.g. Brown) put up numbers that had much longevity.
Note, too: Three backs on the ’64 list — the Bears’ Casares, the Giants’ Webster and the 49ers’ Smith — aren’t in the Hall of Fame and never will be. Yet there’s a good chance every back on the ’14 list will make it. The only ones who haven’t been voted in, after all, are Bettis and Tomlinson. But LT is a lock once he’s eligible, and Bettis has been a finalist the last four years and figures to get his ticket punched eventually.
And understandably so, I suppose. The threshold for breaking into the Top 10 — in all offensive departments — is so much higher these days. You not only have to play longer, you usually have to be fairly productive in your 30s, which for a running back is far from guaranteed. Payton, hard as it is to believe, rushed for more yards after his 30th birthday (6,522) than Van Buren did in his entire career (5,860). And Steve was the all-time leader for nearly a decade.
Finally, three of the Top 7 rushers 50 years ago — Perry (2nd), Johnson (6th) and McElhenny (7th) –actually played together for three seasons in San Francisco (1954-56), though they often weren’t healthy at the same time. “The Million-Dollar Backfield,” they were called (the fourth Hall of Fame member being quarterback Y.A. Tittle). John Henry, ever the joker, liked to tell people: “I’m still lookin’ for the million.”
On to the receivers:
Most receiving yards at the start of the 1964 season
At the start of 2014
8,459 Billy Howton
22,895 Jerry Rice
7,991 Don Hutson
15,934 Terrell Owens
6,920 Raymond Berry
15,292 Randy Moss
6,299 Crazylegs Hirsch
15,208 Isaac Bruce
5,902 Billy Wilson
15,127 Tony Gonzalez
5,619 Pete Pihos
14,934 Tim Brown
5,594 Del Shofner
14,580 Marvin Harrison
5,508 Ray Renfro
14,004 James Lofton
5,499 Tommy McDonald
13,899 Cris Carter
5,476 Max McGee
13,777 Henry Ellard
That’s right, McGee, Paul Hornung’s old drinking buddy on the Packers, was No. 10 in receiving yards as the ’64 season got underway. I wasn’t prepared for that (though I knew he was a pretty good wideout). Here is he is (fuzzily) scoring the first points in Super Bowl history by making a one-handed touchdown catch:
Amazingly, Howton, who tops the list — and was McGee’s teammate in Green Bay for a while — isn’t in the Hall. I’ve always thought he belongs, even though he played on a series of losing clubs. But that’s a subject for another post.
Also excluded from Canton, besides McGee, are the 49ers’ Wilson, the Giants’ Shofner and the Browns’ Renfro. In other words, half of the Top 10 in receiving yards half a century ago haven’t been enshrined. Does that seem like a lot to you?
I doubt people will be saying that about the current Top 10 50 years from now. Rice and Lofton already have their gold jackets, and most of the others have strong arguments.
Speaking of Rice, that 22,895 figure never ceases to astound, does it? It’s almost as many as the Top 3 receivers combined on the ’64 list (23,370).
Something else that shouldn’t be overlooked: a tight end (Tony Gonzalez) has infiltrated the Top 10 (at No. 5) — and he won’t be the last. The position has become too important to the passing game.
Lastly — because I wanted to keep you in suspense — the quarterbacks:
Most passing yards at the start of the 1964 season
At the start of 2014
28,339 Y.A. Tittle
71,838 Brett Favre
26,768 Bobby Layne
64,964 Peyton Manning
23,611 Norm Van Brocklin
61,361 Dan Marino
21,886 Sammy Baugh
51,475 John Elway
21,491 Johnny Unitas
51,081 Drew Brees
19,488 Charlie Conerly
49,325 Warren Moon
17,654 Tobin Rote
49,149 Tom Brady
17,492 George Blanda
47,003 Fran Tarkenton
16,303 Billy Wade
46,233 Vinny Testaverde
14,686 Sid Luckman
44,611 Drew Bledsoe
Both groups are well represented in the Hall. Seven from ’64 are in, including the Top 5, and the Top 8 from ’14 are destined to join them. And get this: The three ’64 guys who haven’t been ushered into Canton — Conerly (’56 Giants), Rote (’57 Lions, plus the ’63 Chargers in the AFL) and Wade (’63 Bears) — all quarterbacked teams to titles. Quite an accomplished bunch.
For those wondering where Otto Graham is, he did indeed rack up 23,584 passing yards, but 10,085 of them came in the rival All-America Conference. That left him 12th, for the NFL’s purposes, going into the ’64 season (with 13,499). It’s a bit unfair — and also affects some of his teammates (running back Marion Motley, receivers Dante Lavelli and Mac Speedie) — but what are ya gonna do?
At any rate, it takes a lot of yards to crack any of these Top 10s nowadays. You’d better pack a lunch — and maybe dinner and a midnight snack, too.
This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?
Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?
Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).
OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):
BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960
Span
Quarterback
Team(s)
W-L
Pct
1969-79
Roger Staubach
Cowboys
9-0
1.000
2002-13
Tom Brady
Patriots
11-1
.917
2002-13
Michael Vick
Falcons, Eagles
6-1
.857
2007-13
Jay Cutler
Broncos, Bears
6-1
.857
1963-68
Frank Ryan
Browns
5-1
.833
2008-13
Joe Flacco
Ravens
5-1
.833
Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).
(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)
Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:
● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.
● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.
● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 (.444).
● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.
● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:
MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960
The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.
The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”
Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:
2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS
Quarterback, Team
Quality Starts
Peyton Manning, Broncos
15
Philip Rivers, Chargers
13
Matt Ryan, Falcons
12
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
11
Tony Romo, Cowboys
11
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
11
Drew Brees, Saints
10
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
10
Matthew Stafford, Lions
10
(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)
Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.
At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.
The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:
Year
League Avg
Quality Starts Leaders
2012
83.8
Peyton Manning 14, Aaron Rodgers 13, Matt Ryan 13, Russell Wilson 12
2011
82.5
Tom Brady 14, Drew Brees 14, Rodgers 14, Tony Romo 12, Matt Stafford 12
2010
82.2
Brady 14, Joe Flacco 12, Philip Rivers 12
2009
81.2
Rivers 16, Rodgers 15, P. Manning 14, Matt Schaub 14
2008
81.5
Chad Pennington 12, Rivers 12
2007
80.9
Brady 13, Romo 13, David Garrard 12, Matt Hasselbeck 12, P. Manning 12
Palmer 14, Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Jake Delhomme 12, Trent Green 12
2004
80.9
P. Manning 15, Daunte Culpepper 14, Brees 12, Green 12
2003
76.6
Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Culpepper 12, Steve McNair 12
2002
78.6
Rich Gannon 13, P. Manning 12, Pennington 12
2001
76.6
Gannon 14, Jeff Garcia 14, Brett Favre 12
2000
76.2
Gannon 13, Garcia 12, Elvis Grbac 12, P. Manning 12
I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.
And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?
In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:
QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)
Year Quarterback, Team
Quality Starts
Result (W-L-T)
2009 Philip Rivers, Chargers
16
Won division (13-3)
1992 Steve Young, 49ers
16
NFC finalist (14-2)
1984 Dan Marino, Dolphins
16
Super Bowl finalist (14-2)
1973 Fran Tarkenton, Vikings
14
Super Bowl finalist (12-2)
1960 Milt Plum, Browns
12
Missed playoffs (8-3-1)
● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)
● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).
● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.
One more note:
● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.
Which brings us to . . .
MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS
Quarterback,Team
Quality Starts
Philip Rivers, Chargers
62
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
60
Tom Brady, Patriots
59
Drew Brees, Saints
58
Peyton Manning, Colts/Broncos
53
Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.
The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.
But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?
Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.
