Tag Archives: Falcons

The Jaguars’ 8 quarters from Hell

We can only hope the worst is over for the Jaguars, that they’ll never again be as Horrifically Bad as they were from the second half of Week 1 through the first half of Week 3. But with a rookie quarterback, Blake Bortles, now running the offense, you can never been 100 percent sure.

To summarize the Jags’ miseries:

They lost the second half to the Eagles, 34-0.

Then they lost the game to the Redskins, 41-10.

Then they lost the first half to the Colts, 30-0.

Add it all up and you get: Other Guys 105, Jacksonville 10 — a point differential of minus-95 in the equivalent of two games.

Any idea how many NFL teams have been outscored by that many points over a two-game span? Answer: one (since 1940, at least).

Indeed, I turned up just 10 in the last 75 seasons who were minus-80 or worse over a two-week stretch. (Wish I could broaden it to eight-quarter stretches like the Jaguars’, but the search engine at pro-football-reference.com doesn’t let me to do that.)

Anyway, here are the Terrible Ten:

WORST POINT DIFFERENTIAL IN A TWO-GAME STRETCH SINCE 1940

Games Team (W-L-T) PF PA Diff
1-2 1961 Raiders (2-12) 0 99 -99
1-2 1973 Saints (5-9) 10 102 -92
6-7 1966 Falcons (3-11) 10 100 -90
8-9 1949 N.Y. Bulldogs (1-10-1) 20 107 -87
13-14 2000 Browns (3-13) 7 92 -85
7-8 1966 Falcons (3-11) 20 105 -85
1-2 1989 Steelers (9-7) 10 92 -82
5-6 2009 Titans (8-8) 9 90 -81
1-2 1978 Colts (5-11) 0 80 -80
4-5 1966 Eagles (9-5) 17 97 -80

What’s fascinating is that several of these teams bounced back after hitting bottom. The ’89 Steelers actually made the playoffs — and beat the Oilers in the first round. In fact, they nearly made it to the AFC title game, dropping a 24-23 heartbreaker to the Broncos in the semifinals. (And Denver, of course, reached the Super Bowl.)

Also, the ’66 Eagles finished 9-5, and the ’09 Titans won eight of their last 10 with Vince Young at quarterback to end up 8-8.

FYI: The ’66 Falcons were a first-year expansion team, so they can almost be excused.  Still, that was a wicked three weeks they had, getting blown out 44-7 by the 49ers, 56-3 by Vince Lombardi’s Packers and 49-17 by the Browns.

Finally, a word about the ’61 Raiders: After beginning the season with back-to-back humiliations of 55-0 (Oilers) and 44-0 (Chargers), they fired coach Eddie Erdelatz and promoted offensive assistant Marty Feldman, “whose only prior head coaching was for Valley Junior College and the Stanford Frosh,” the Oakland Tribune reported.

I know what you’re thinking. But, no, it’s not this Marty Feldman, the guy who played Igor in Young Frankenstein:

It’s this Marty Feldman:

Feldman with Raiders sweatshirt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two years later, Al Davis arrived on the scene, and Pride and Poise quickly replaced 55-0 and 44-0. If only the Jaguars could find an Al Davis of their own.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Tommy McDonald on Tommy McDonald

“I have been knocked out five times in my seven years of pro football, and at one time or another I have played with a broken jaw, a shoulder separation and assorted cracked ribs. . . . My hands are no larger than my wife’s, and I wouldn’t say hers are large for a woman. . . . Size helps but it isn’t everything, except maybe in a hog-growing contest.”

— Hall of Fame wideout Tommy McDonald

Sports Illustrated ran “The Monsters and Me” — a first-person piece by Tommy McDonald, the Eagles’ Hall of Fame receiver — in 1964. His ghostwriter was Tex Maule, the magazine’s NFL guy. If you’ve got a few minutes, check it out. It’s worth your while.

McDonald was a small (5-foot-9, 178 pounds), utterly fearless wideout who, at that point in his career, had 66 touchdown receptions. Nobody remembers today, but no receiver in NFL history had caught that many TD passes in his first seven seasons, not even Don Hutson (53). In fact, Tommy still ranks in the Top 10 in this department. Wait until you see who he’s tied with:

MOST TOUCHDOWN CATCHES, FIRST SEVEN SEASONS

Seasons Receiver Team (s) TD
1985-91 Jerry Rice 49ers 93
1998-04 Randy Moss Vikings 90
1962-68 Lance Alworth Chargers (AFL) 73
1996-02 Marvin Harrison Colts 73
1996-02 Terrell Owens 49ers 72
1965-71 Bob Hayes Cowboys 67
1957-63 Tommy McDonald Eagles 66
2007-13 Calvin Johnson Lions 66
1959-65 Art Powell Raiders (AFL), 2 others 66
2004-10 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals 65
1988-94 Sterling Sharpe Packers 65

Yup, Megatron himself.

McDonald was renowned for playing without a facemask — to the very end of his career in 1968. If you want proof, here he is in his next-to-last season with the Falcons (1967) and his final year with the Browns:

McDonald with no facemask, 1967              McDonald no facemask in last season

 

 

 

 

 

 

Occasionally you’ll see a photo of him with a facemask, but there’s an explanation for that. “Sometimes,” he said in The Pro Football Chronicle, “I’d crack mine [helmet], and the Eagles didn’t have a replacement for me. So I had to borrow one from a teammate. I had a very small head, 6 ¾. I’d take a towel, or half a towel, and stuff it in there to make it fit. That’s the only time I’d wear a facemask.”

In the SI story, McDonald mentions a scoring grab he made for Oklahoma against Texas in 1956, the year he finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, that “someone said . . . was so far out in front of me I caught it with my fingerprints, not my fingertips.” Here’s the video of that, in case you’re interested:

And just think: “I have played for years,” he said, “without the tip of my left thumb. I lost it in an accident with that motorbike Dad gave me.”

In ’57 the Eagles drafted McDonald in the third round and Sonny Jurgensen in the fourth. Both, of course, are now in Canton. Can’t do much better than that. Sonny once told me he and Tommy had a drill they liked to run. They’d sit in a darkened room, back to back, and Sonny would flip a football over his head.

“Tommy never dropped it,” he said. “Not once.”

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Pro Football Chronicle.

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Hysteria in Redskinsland

Now that was fast. Seems like just yesterday Robert Griffin III was the Future of the Franchise and one of the best young quarterbacks the NFL has seen. Now a segment of the population — commentators included — are wondering whether his eye-popping rookie season was a mirage, whether he’s merely another overhyped, self-absorbed player who, in a true meritocracy, wouldn’t even be the Redskins’ starter.

The Shawshank Redemption is full of great voiceovers, and one of my favorites is when Red (Morgan Freeman) is talking about Andy’s escape from prison. Near the end, he says, “Andy did like he was told, buffed those shoes [of the warden’s] to a high mirror shine. The guards simply didn’t notice [him walking back to his cell in them]. Neither did I. I mean, seriously, how often do you really look at a man’s shoes?”

I found myself thinking of that line earlier this week when Washington Post columnist Jason Reid started ripping Griffin’s shoes — and his socks, too. On the opening day of training camp, RG3 “separated himself from everyone else on the field,” Reid wrote,

by wearing a black sock and a black cleat and a white sock and a white cleat. Griffin explained it was something he has done since college to represent the “yin and the yang. White and black working together. We’re all brothers. We’re doing it together” Okay. Whatever.

But Griffin’s ineffectiveness and feud with the Shanahans led to the relationship being detonated. How could Griffin think it would be a good idea to stand out from his teammates on a day that marked a new beginning for the group? And Griffin’s insistence on clinging to his college days is tripping him up in the pros.

Reid is obviously willing to go the extra mile, to “really look at a man’s shoes” (not to mention his socks). In fact, if the Redskins lay another dinosaur egg this year, and Griffin has anything to do with it, I fully expect a three-part Post series on “The shoes (and socks) that sank a season.” Or maybe it’ll just be two parts — one for the shoes and one for the socks.

I ask you: As well known as RG3 is — Heisman Trophy winner, NFL offensive rookie of the year, endorsements up the wazoo, more jersey sales in a season than any player in league history — do you really think he was trying to attract more attention to himself and stand apart from his teammates? Something tells me he’s already got the Attention Thing covered.

But moving along . . . we all know how good Griffin’s first season was. Here’s the list of rookie quarterbacks, in the first 94 years of the league, who’ve had 3,000 passing yards, completed 65 percent, thrown for 20 TDs and had a 100 rating:

Robert Griffin III, Redskins, 2012 (3,200, 65.6, 20, 102.4)

That’s it. And remember, he missed a game — against a lousy Browns club. His stats could have been better.

But never mind that. Exactly how bad was he last season, in terms of where he is in his career? Well, for a 23-year-old, he actually played pretty well. My research turned up just five QBs who, at that age, equaled or exceeded RG3’s numbers in the aforementioned four categories (3,203 yards, 60.1 percent completions, 16 TDs, 82.2 rating):

Year Quarterback, Team Yards Pct TD Rating W-L
2011 Matthew Stafford, Lions 5,038 63.5 41 97.2 10-6*
2008 Matt Ryan, Falcons 3,440 61.1 16 87.7 11-5*
2000 Daunte Culpepper, Vikings 3,937 62.7 33 98.0 11-5*
1999 Peyton Manning, Colts 4,135 62.1 26 90.7 13-3*
1984 Dan Marino, Dolphins 5,084 64.2 48 108.9 14-2*

*made playoffs

Granted, Griffin’s stats put him at the low end of this group, but it’s interesting how every other quarterback made the playoffs — and won at least seven more games than RG3 (3-10) did. Do you suppose some of it might have been because the Redskins defense was a few bricks shy of the Great Wall of China?

Oh, and none of these QBs was coming off a blown-out knee — in January — that turned his offseason into one long rehab session and kept him from taking a single snap in an exhibition game.

We seem to have reached the stage where we think of football players as cartoon characters. They run through a screen door, break into 1,000 pieces, and in the next frame they’re supposed up and running again.

It’s not easy to come back from an ACL/LCL injury as quickly as Griffin did, even with all the advancements in sports medicine. Example: Tom Brady tore up his knee in the Patriots’ 2008 opener and missed the entire season. Even though he had four more months to heal than RG3 did, he clearly wasn’t himself when he returned to the lineup in ’09. Indeed, his rating dropped 21 points, from 117.2 (in ’07) to (96.2). How many points did Robert’s rating drop last year? 20.2.

You’ll be pleased to know, though — well, those of you who don’t belong to the Kirk Cousins Fan Club — that Brady’s rating shot back up to a league-leading 111 the next season. Also, let’s not forget: Tom was a 10th-year player in ’09, not a second-year guy like Griffin was last season. The offense he was stepping back into was as comfortable as an old pair of cleats (both black). RG3, on the other hand, was trying to morph into a more conventional pocket passer a year ago – for self-preservation’s sake. In many ways, it was a whole new world for him.

Reid chided him for demanding “changes in the offense he was not ready to execute.” Yeah, but part of that was because he was too busy picking up the 1,000 pieces he’d broken into to spend the necessary time on the practice field. Beyond that, though, if Griffin didn’t insist on changes, who would have? Mike Shanahan had already shown his willingness to leave RG3 in the game, hobbling around as if he had a peg leg, until his knee finally gave out. (And then Shanny makes a grandstand play and sits Robert for the final three games of last season — for His Own Good. Sorry, Mike, but your humanity is 11 months late.)

What tends to be overlooked about young quarterbacks these days is how incredibly exposed they are. They play sooner — and younger — than ever before because (a.) they’re allowed to turn pro earlier, and (b.) the college game prepares them better. Some of these kids shouldn’t be wearing helmets, they should be wearing incubators.

They’re exposed, too, because they become such a part of their team’s (and the NFL’s) marketing plan. They’re just Out There, in public, all the time. And mobile QBs like Griffin are further exposed because they’re counted on to run the ball . . . and to take the hard knocks that go with it.

Yet some expect them to act with the maturity of a veteran, the equilibrium of the Dalai Lama and selflessness of Mother Teresa. Good luck with that. To paraphrase Forrest Gump’s mom, “Twenty-three is as 23 does.”

If you go by passer rating, RG3 is one of the Top 5 under-25 quarterbacks of all time. (And as you’re looking at the following list, keep in mind: He has another season to add to his totals. He doesn’t turn 25 until February.)

Years Quarterback, Team Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int Rating
2012-13 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 668 428 64.1 5,480 45 16 102.1
2012-13 Nick Foles, Eagles 582 364 62.5 4,590 33 7 101.0
1983-86 Dan Marino, Dolphins 1,492 911 61.1 11,975 102 45 96.6
1999-01 Daunte Culpepper, Vikings 840 532 63.3 6,549 47 29 91.6
2012-13 Robert Griffin III, Redskins 849 532 62.7 6,403 36 17 91.5

(Minimum: 500 attempts.)

Griffin is also the No. 3 under-25 QB for rushing yards. (And again, he has another season to add to his total.)

Years Quarterback, Team Yards
2001-04 Michael Vick, Falcons 2,223
2011-13 Cam Newton, Panthers 2,032
2012-13 Robert Griffin III, Redskins 1,304
1985-87 Randall Cunningham, Eagles 1,250
1999-01 Donovan McNabb, Eagles 1,201

Griffin’s productivity — for his age — ranks way up there. Really, how much more can he do? So his detractors tend to focus on other stuff (e.g. his relationships with teammates, his handling of social media, his alleged family-sized ego and, yes, even his shoes and socks).

Reid went as far as to suggest that RG3 seek out Doug Williams, now a personnel executive with the Redskins, for counsel. “A good mentor,” he wrote, “could teach Griffin much of what he lacks. Luckily for Griffin, the ideal person for the job works in the same office.”

Hoo boy. There wasn’t social media in Williams’ day, but maybe you recall the classy way he handled his divorce in 1989. These are the first few paragraphs of a story he fed the Post’s Tom Friend:

While Redskins quarterback Doug Williams was flattening his NFL opponents the past two seasons, his wife, Lisa, was delivering “the worst sack I ever had in my life,” Williams says. Their next date is Friday in court, where her lawyer says she’ll give her side of the story.

Williams says Lisa Robinson was after his money, fooled him into matrimony, and later let herself get pregnant against his wishes. “She knew I didn’t want a baby,” he says.

The Washington Redskins quarterback couldn’t have been a more eligible bachelor when they were wedded in June 1987, but he says he is convinced now that she masked her personality to win him, later ignored his 6-year-old daughter, Ashley (from his previous marriage), and then robbed him last month while he was working at Redskin Park. . . .

Williams later recanted all this. In court, he testified he’d had affairs with other women during the marriage, and in a statement he said, “Very often during emotionally difficult situations such as I have recently experienced, occasionally improper things are said and done. . . . Any allegations concerning my wife since we separated were said in anger, and to her, her family and friends, I apologize.”

After the split, the Post assigned a Style section writer to get the wife’s version of events (and basically clean up the mess). Near the top of Donna Britt’s piece were these words: “[W]ith her T-shirt, makeup-free face and curly nest of auburn hair, Robinson, 26, looks like a TV-commercial prototype for a young mother busy with bottles, bibs and keeping inedible objects from her baby’s mouth. She does not remotely resemble a heartless gold digger — the ‘con artist’ and ‘thrill-seeker’ who gave Williams ‘the worst sack I ever had in my life’ as he told The Washington Post six weeks ago.”

And Doug back then was, what, a callow youth of . . . almost 34?

Then there was the scene, a couple of years before, when Williams “broke down crying in an interview” after being told Jay Schroeder was being restored as the starting quarterback. Reid has already made it clear he finds Griffin a little too Joe College, a little immature. We can only imagine how he would have reacted if Robert had teared up when Shanahan benched him in favor of Cousins.

At any rate, there are probably better mentors for Griffin than Williams. One might be former teammate London Fletcher, the new CBS analyst, who, during a radio appearance on the Junkies, refuted the notion the QB wasn’t popular in the locker room.

“Robert is probably the most-liked player on the team, or one of the most well-liked players on the team, when I was there, because he’s engaging,” Fletcher said. “He’s charismatic. . . . He was humble. . . . He’s handled himself like that the two years I was there with him, and I’m sure he continues to handle himself that way.”

The NFL is all about survival — for any player — but it was especially so for Fletcher, a 5-foot-10 (maybe), 245-pound (maybe) linebacker. Griffin is getting a crash course in that right now, a tutorial in Weathering the Storm. He’s far from a finished product — at 24, how could he be? — and he has a new coach, Jay Gruden, and a new offense to learn. But the early returns are promising. That is, if you’re not the kind who reads a lot of symbolism into shoes and socks.

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The big tease

Sure, the Cardinals and Steelers missed the playoffs last year, but they did go 6-2 in the second half. (Not to sound like a Holiday Inn Express commercial or anything.) That was the best record by any team that didn’t qualify for the postseason. How much does this mean, though? Are these clubs on the verge of greater things, or does a strong finish one year have little bearing on the next?

Let’s look at the previous four years and the teams that earned this distinction:

Year  Team (W-L) 2nd Half Next Season
2012  Cowboys (8-8) 5-3 8-8
2012  Panthers (7-9) 5-3 12-4
2011  Cardinals (8-8) 6-2 5-11
2010  Chargers (9-7) 6-2 8-8
2009  Titans (8-8) 6-2 6-10

A bit surprising, you have to admit. Three went backward the next year, one stayed stuck in its 8-8 rut and the other — the Panthers — won the division title (and got a first-round bye in the playoffs).

But that’s a rather small sample size. So I researched the matter further — back to 1990, when the playoffs were expanded to 12 entrants. A total of 39 clubs in those 24 seasons fell into the Best Second-Half Record By A Non-Playoff Team category (accounting for ties). Here’s how they did the following year:
Made playoffs 15
Missed playoffs 24
Wild card   7
Division champion   8
Reached conference title game   5
Reached Super Bowl   3
Won Super Bowl   1

As you can see, almost two-third of the clubs (61.5 percent) failed to qualify for the playoffs the next season. The last four years, in other words, are no aberration. For teams such as these, there simply isn’t much of a carry-over effect. Indeed, 24 of them — the same 61.5 percent — failed to improve their record the following season, much less make the playoffs. (Fifteen were better, 19 were worse and five posted the same mark.)

The clubs that reached the Super Bowl, by the way, were the 1998 Falcons (7-9 the year before, 6-2 in the second half), 2003 Patriots (9-7/5-3) and ’08 Cardinals (8-8/5-3). And the only one that walked off with the Lombardi Trophy, of course, was the ’03 Pats, who had won it just two seasons earlier (and would win it again in ’04).

The moral: Don’t get your hopes too high if your team finishes its season on an upswing. It could lead to greater success, but the odds are against it. Why? Oh, you could probably come up with a bunch of reasons — injuries, free-agent defections, a tougher schedule, bad luck, and on and on. Then, too, winning games when you’re out of the running – as many of these clubs were – is a lot like gaining yards when you’re hopelessly behind. They might make things look a little better, but looks can be deceiving.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book

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The first quarter of the first game

Every team wants to get off to a fast start in Week 1, but the 1964 Bills took it to another level. In their opener 50 years ago against the Chiefs, they jumped out to a — no, this is not a typo — 31-0 lead after the first quarter. It’s the best beginning to a season in pro football history . . . by a lot. And lest you think this is just an inconsequential detail, they went on to their first AFL championship that year.

The explosion started quietly enough with a 13-yard field goal by Pete Gogolak. But then Jack Kemp, the future vice presidential candidate, threw three touchdown passes — two to Glenn Bass, the other to Elbert “Golden Wheels” Dubenion — and defensive tackle Tom Sestak added interception to injury with a 15-yard TD return. (His victim: Hall of Famer Len Dawson.)

The Chiefs regained consciousness and got within striking distance by the end of the third quarter, but Buffalo held them off, 34-17. The Bills then proceeded to win their first nine games and, on the day after Christmas, beat the defending champion Chargers to take the title.

In other words, it wasn’t the season their coach, Lou Saban, said this:

No other team NFL team has ever had more than a 21-point lead after the first quarter of its opener. The ’08 Falcons were the last to do it (against the Lions in Mike Smith’s first game on the Atlanta sideline). As you’ll see in the following chart, four of the 12 Fast Starters went on to win the title and eight made the playoffs. Somehow, though, two managed to lose the game.

BIGGEST WEEK 1 LEADS AT THE END OF THE FIRST QUARTER

Year  Team Opponent Pts (Score) Final Result (Record)
1964  Bills Chiefs 31 (31-0) W, 34-17 Won AFL title (12-2)
2008  Falcons Lions 21 (21-0) W, 34-21 Wild card (11-5)
1999  Eagles Cardinals 21 (21-0) L, 25-24 Missed playoffs (5-11)
1991  Redskins Lions 21 (21-0) W, 45-0 Won Super Bowl (14-2)
1990  Falcons Oilers 21 (21-0) W, 47-27 Missed playoffs (5-11)
1988  Eagles Bucs 21 (21-0) W, 41-14 Won division (10-6)
1981  Seahawks Bengals 21 (21-0) L, 27-21 Missed playoffs (6-10)
1973  Redskins Chargers 21 (21-0) W, 38-0 Wild card (10-4)
1968  Raiders Bills 21 (21-0) W, 48-6 Won division (12-2)
1966  Chiefs Bills 21 (21-0) W, 42-20 Won AFL title (11-2-1)
1951  Rams Yanks 21 (21-0) W, 54-14 Won title (8-4)
1940  Packers Eagles 21 (21-0) W, 27-20 Missed playoffs (6-4-1)

Other items of interest:

● The ’81 Bengals, who overcame that 21-0 first quarter deficit against the Seahawks, went all the way to the Super Bowl (where they couldn’t overcome a 20-0 halftime deficit against the 49ers).

● While the ’51 Rams were coldcocking the New York Yanks in their opener, Norm Van Brocklin was throwing for 554 yards. It’s still the NFL record (by 27). Sixty-three years and counting, folks.

● Did you notice? Two years after the Bills laid a 31-0 first quarter on them in Week 1, the Chiefs returned the favor, 21-0 (in the very same stadium: War Memorial). Buffalo still reached the ’66 AFL championship game, though (only to lose to Kansas City again).

● That miserable first quarter certainly set the tone for the ’08 Lions. They proceeded to go 0-16, the only NFL team to plunge to such depths. The ’91 Lions, on the other hand, proved more resilient. After their stinker of a beginning, they regrouped, went 12-4 and met the Redskins again in the NFC title game (where the result was pretty much the same — a 41-10 whipping).

● The Bills’ 31-point margin isn’t just the biggest in the first quarter of an opener; it’s the biggest in the first quarter of any game. (Vince Lombardi’s Packers put up a 35 in the opening quarter against the Browns in November ’67, the record for total points, but they also gave up a touchdown, so they were ahead by “only” 28.)

● Finally, remember that Gogolak field goal I mentioned at the top? Turns out it was the first by a soccer-styler in pro football history. It’s also the subject of my next post, which I’ve linked to here.

At any rate, who knew the first quarter of the first game could be so telling?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team(s) W-L Pct
1969-79 Roger Staubach Cowboys 9-0 1.000
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1 .917
2002-13 Michael Vick Falcons, Eagles 6-1 .857
2007-13 Jay Cutler Broncos, Bears 6-1 .857
1963-68 Frank Ryan Browns 5-1 .833
2008-13 Joe Flacco Ravens 5-1 .833

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team (s) W-L-T Pct
1983-98 John Elway Broncos 12-4-0 .750
1992-10 Brett Favre Packers, Jets, Vikings 12-6-0 .667
1961-78 Fran Tarkenton Vikings, Giants 11-6-1 .639
1998-13 Peyton Manning Colts, Broncos 11-4-0 .733
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1-0 .917

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quality starts for quarterbacks

The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.

The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”

Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:

2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS

Quarterback, Team Quality Starts
Peyton Manning, Broncos              15
Philip Rivers, Chargers              13
Matt Ryan, Falcons              12
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers              11
Tony Romo, Cowboys              11
Russell Wilson, Seahawks              11
Drew Brees, Saints              10
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers              10
Matthew Stafford, Lions              10

(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)

Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.

At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.

The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:

Year League Avg Quality Starts Leaders
2012        83.8 Peyton Manning 14, Aaron Rodgers 13, Matt Ryan 13, Russell Wilson 12
2011        82.5 Tom Brady 14, Drew Brees 14, Rodgers 14, Tony Romo 12, Matt Stafford 12
2010        82.2 Brady 14, Joe Flacco 12, Philip Rivers 12
2009        81.2 Rivers 16, Rodgers 15, P. Manning 14, Matt Schaub 14
2008        81.5 Chad Pennington 12, Rivers 12
2007        80.9 Brady 13, Romo 13, David Garrard 12, Matt Hasselbeck 12, P. Manning 12
2006        78.5 P. Manning 14, Carson Palmer 13, Brady 12, Brees 12, Rivers 12
2005        78.2 Palmer 14, Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Jake Delhomme 12, Trent Green 12
2004        80.9 P. Manning 15, Daunte Culpepper 14, Brees 12, Green 12
2003        76.6 Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Culpepper 12, Steve McNair 12
2002        78.6 Rich Gannon 13, P. Manning 12, Pennington 12
2001        76.6 Gannon 14, Jeff Garcia 14, Brett Favre 12
2000        76.2 Gannon 13, Garcia 12, Elvis Grbac 12, P. Manning 12

I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.

And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?

In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:

QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)

Year Quarterback, Team Quality Starts Result (W-L-T)
2009 Philip Rivers, Chargers              16 Won division (13-3)
1992 Steve Young, 49ers              16 NFC finalist (14-2)
1984 Dan Marino, Dolphins              16 Super Bowl finalist (14-2)
1973 Fran Tarkenton, Vikings              14 Super Bowl finalist (12-2)
1960 Milt Plum, Browns              12 Missed playoffs (8-3-1)

● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)

● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).

● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.

One more note:

● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.

Which brings us to . . .

MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS

Quarterback,Team Quality Starts
Philip Rivers, Chargers              62
Aaron Rodgers, Packers              60
Tom Brady, Patriots              59
Drew Brees, Saints              58
Peyton Manning, Colts/Broncos              53

Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.

The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.

But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?

Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.

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Thoughts on the Logan Mankins trade

For me, there are two surprises in the following chart. The first is that only eight rookie tight ends in NFL history have had 50 or more receptions. The second is that every one of them went in the first 40 picks of the draft except for Tim Wright, the guy the Patriots just acquired from the Bucs for six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins. Wright, who played his college ball at Rutgers, was passed over by all 32 teams a year ago.

ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS WHO HAVE CAUGHT 50 OR MORE PASSES

Year  Tight End, Team Rec Yds Avg TD Round-Pick
1988  Keith Jackson, Eagles 81 869 10.7 6 1-13
2002  Jeremy Shockey, Giants 74 894 12.1 2 1-14
1961  Mike Ditka, Bears 56 1,076 19.2 12 1-5
2008  John Carlson, Seahawks 55 627 11.4 5 2-38
1973  Charle Young, Eagles 55 854 15.5 6 1-6
1998  Cam Cleeland, Saints 54 684 12.7 6 2-40
2013  Tim Wright, Bucs 54 571 10.6 5 Undrafted
2010  Jermaine Gresham, Bengals 52 471 9.1 4 1-21

That’s right, no Rob Gronkowski (42 receptions). No Jimmy Graham (31). No Tony Gonzalez (33). No Kellen Winslow Sr. or Jr. (30 combined in their first season). No Shannon Sharpe (7). Maybe this Wright kid is better than we think. (Of course, before today, when the deal was announced, how often did he even cross our minds?)

At the every least, Wright provides low-cost Gronk Insurance in the event the all-world tight end is slow coming back from knee surgery. When No. 87 was out of the lineup last year, the Patriots’ supercharged offense seemed more like a stick shift. Wright also creates significant cap space in case the Pats want to hang onto Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option is a gargantuan $20 million. Mankins, after all, had the Pats’ second-highest cap number after Tom Brady; Wright, meanwhile, like most undrafted free agents, subsists on gruel.

Still, trading a guard with Mankins’ resumé . . . how often has that happened? Well, I dug up one similar example back in the ’70s. (Which isn’t to say there might not be others.) I also found a couple of guards who were dealt after being voted to five Pro Bowls — and two more who were sent packing after being voted to three. The particulars, chronologically:

● Walt Sweeney, Chargers to Redskins (January 1974) — A nine-time Pro Bowler in San Diego (1964-72), Sweeney joined George Allen’s Over the Hill Gang at the age of 33. He started for two seasons in Washington before calling it a career. The Chargers received fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round picks spread over three drafts.

● Ed White, Vikings to Chargers (July 1978) — White had made three Pro Bowls in Minnesota and would make another in San Diego. Though already 31, he ended up playing eight more seasons (which Mankins might try to do just out of spite). The Vikes, in return, got Rickey Young, who caught 88 passes in his first year with them, a record for running backs (since broken).

● Joe DeLamielleure, Bills to Browns (September 1980) — Hall of Famer DeLamielleure, then 29, had been selected for five Pro Bowls in Buffalo and added a sixth in Cleveland. The Bills came away with second- and third-round picks.

● R.C. Thielemann, Falcons to Redskins (August 1985) — Atlanta needed a wideout. Washington wasn’t sold on its right guard. So the 30-year-old Thielemann, a three-time Pro Bowler with the Falcons, was swapped Charlie Brown, who was coming off an injury-marred season after tying for the NFC lead in receptions in ’83. R.C. was just a spoke in the wheel with the Redskins, but he did start on their ’87 championship team.

● Kent Hill, Los Angeles Rams to Houston Oilers (September 1986) — This was the trade, two games into the season, that enabled L.A. to obtain the rights to unsigned QB Jim Everett, the third pick in the ’86 draft (who had no desire to sit behind Canton-bound Warren Moon). Hill, part of a mega-package that included DE William Fuller and two No. 1s, was 29 and had gone to five Pro Bowls. He played that year and one more in Houston and then retired.

As for Everett, he didn’t win the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, but after moving to the Saints he did leave us with this memorable clip:

Anyway, yeah, this Mankins trade is extremely rare. I wouldn’t want to be the team that comes out on the short end of it.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, NFL.com

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Tony Gonzalez’s exit

Well, it looks like Tony Gonzalez really is retired, so I guess it’s safe to run this post. I wanted to add his 2013 performance to my list of Best Final Seasons in NFL history, but there was always the chance the Patriots or some other tight end-needy contender would talk him into playing another year.

Gonzalez wanted badly last season to close out his career the way Ray Lewis, Michael Strahan and Jerome Bettis had in recent years — by winning the Super Bowl. (In his case, his first.) Alas, the Falcons were one of the league’s biggest flops, going 4-12 after reaching the NFC title game the season before, and Tony’s typically sterling efforts (83 catches, 859 yards, 8 touchdowns and his 14th Pro Bowl) went for naught.

Still, at least he retired at or near the top of his game. The same can’t be said for Lewis, Strahan and Bettis, despite their fairytale endings. Ray missed 10 games in 2012 with a torn triceps and failed to make the Pro Bowl. Strahan ranked third on the Giants in ’07 with nine sacks (to Osi Umenyiora’s 13 and Justin Tuck’s 10). And Bettis rushed for a career-low 368 yards in ’05 (though his nine rushing touchdowns were tops on the team).

Other players have hung ’em up after having much better seasons — and a handful have even done it while winning a ring (or whatever bauble owners handed out in those days). The lineup of Fabulous Finishers:

BEST FINAL SEASONS IN NFL HISTORY

● 2013 – Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons (age: 37): I’ve already hit you with his numbers. You’ll appreciate them even more when I tell you he had 80 receptions (or better) at ages 31, 32, 33, 35 and 36, too. No other tight end has been older than 30 when he caught that many balls.

● 2006 – Tiki Barber, RB, Giants (age: 31): Had 1,662 rushing yards, 2,127 yards from scrimmage and made the Pro Bowl with an 8-8 club that somehow stumbled into a playoff berth. Contemplated making a comeback several years later, after his TV career went south, but couldn’t find a taker.

● 1999 – Kevin Greene, LB, Panthers (37): Racked up the last 12 of his 160 sacks (No. 3 all time) for 8-8 Carolina.

● 1998 – John Elway*, QB, Broncos (38): Posted a passer rating of 93, earned a Pro Bowl berth, won the Super Bowl and was voted the game’s MVP (after throwing for 336 yards). Endings don’t get any sweeter than that.

● 1998 – Barry Sanders*, RB, Lions (30): Hard to believe the NFL lost two Hall ofFamers – who were still playing at a high level – to retirement in the same year. Sanders’ ’98 numbers (coming on the heels of his 2,053-yard rushing season): 343 carries, 1,491 yards, 4 touchdowns. Alas, Detroit went 5-11 in his Pro Bowl swan song.

● 1996 – Keith Jackson, TE, Packers (31): Caught a career-high 10 TD passes and played in the last of his five Pro Bowls as Green Bay won its first championship since the Lombardi years.

● 1983 – Ken Riley, CB, Bengals (36): Exited after a season in which had eight interceptions (second in the league), ran back two for scores (one a game-winner) and was elected to his first Pro Bowl. The Bengals weren’t nearly as good as he was, finishing 7-9.

● 1979 – Roger Staubach*, QB, Cowboys (37): Won his fourth NFL passing crown (rating: 92.3) and appeared in his sixth Pro Bowl for division champion Dallas.

● 1965 – Jim Brown*, RB, Browns (29): Before going off to make movies (e.g. “The Dirty Dozen”), Brown had a typically terrific season, leading the league in rushing (1,544), rushing touchdowns (17) and yards from scrimmage (1,872). His final game, though, with the title at stake, was less satisfying: a muddy 23-12 loss to the Packers.

● 1960 – Norm Van Brocklin*, QB, Eagles (34): The Dutchman was the NFL MVP, tossing 24 TD passes (and, on the side, averaging 43.1 yards a punt) in quarterbacking the franchise to its last championship. Retired to become coach of the expansion Vikings, making him the last player to call it quits and step directly into a head-coaching job.

● 1955 – Otto Graham*, QB, Browns (34): Led the league with a 94 passer rating and went to the Pro Bowl as Cleveland won its second straight title (and seventh in a decade, counting its time in the All-America Conference).

● 1955 – Pete Pihos*, E, Eagles (32): Was still a Pro Bowler – and catching more passes (62) for more yards (864) than anybody in the NFL – when he decided he’d had enough. Philly’s 4-7-1 record undoubtedly made it easier.

● 1950 – Spec Sanders, S, New York Yanks (32): Picked off a league-best 13 passes in his one NFL season (after coming over from the All-America Conference). Only one player in history has had more: the Rams’ Night Train Lane (14 in ’52).

● 1945 – Don Hutson*, WR, Packers (32): Capped an incredible career with 47 receptions, tops in the league, for 834 yards and 9 TDs. (And the season, mind you, was just 10 games. His stats would project to 75-1,334-14 over a 16-game schedule.) Green Bay had won the championship the year before, but finished third in the West in ’45 with a 6-4 mark.

● 1937 – Cliff Battles*, RB, Redskins (27): Took his second NFL rushing crown with 874 yards, helping the Redskins, in their first season in Washington, win their first title. A contract dispute with owner George Preston Marshall caused him to retire and turn to college coaching.

* Hall of Famer

Another familiar name that should be on this list is Reggie White. The legendary defensive end initially retired after the 1998 season, when he had 16 sacks for the Packers and was the league’s defensive player of the year. But he reconsidered two seasons later and gave it one last go with a 7-9 Panthers team, adding 5 ½ (needless) sacks to his resumé. All it did was delay his entry into the Hall of Fame.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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