Tag Archives: Patriots

The big tease

Sure, the Cardinals and Steelers missed the playoffs last year, but they did go 6-2 in the second half. (Not to sound like a Holiday Inn Express commercial or anything.) That was the best record by any team that didn’t qualify for the postseason. How much does this mean, though? Are these clubs on the verge of greater things, or does a strong finish one year have little bearing on the next?

Let’s look at the previous four years and the teams that earned this distinction:

Year  Team (W-L) 2nd Half Next Season
2012  Cowboys (8-8) 5-3 8-8
2012  Panthers (7-9) 5-3 12-4
2011  Cardinals (8-8) 6-2 5-11
2010  Chargers (9-7) 6-2 8-8
2009  Titans (8-8) 6-2 6-10

A bit surprising, you have to admit. Three went backward the next year, one stayed stuck in its 8-8 rut and the other — the Panthers — won the division title (and got a first-round bye in the playoffs).

But that’s a rather small sample size. So I researched the matter further — back to 1990, when the playoffs were expanded to 12 entrants. A total of 39 clubs in those 24 seasons fell into the Best Second-Half Record By A Non-Playoff Team category (accounting for ties). Here’s how they did the following year:
Made playoffs 15
Missed playoffs 24
Wild card   7
Division champion   8
Reached conference title game   5
Reached Super Bowl   3
Won Super Bowl   1

As you can see, almost two-third of the clubs (61.5 percent) failed to qualify for the playoffs the next season. The last four years, in other words, are no aberration. For teams such as these, there simply isn’t much of a carry-over effect. Indeed, 24 of them — the same 61.5 percent — failed to improve their record the following season, much less make the playoffs. (Fifteen were better, 19 were worse and five posted the same mark.)

The clubs that reached the Super Bowl, by the way, were the 1998 Falcons (7-9 the year before, 6-2 in the second half), 2003 Patriots (9-7/5-3) and ’08 Cardinals (8-8/5-3). And the only one that walked off with the Lombardi Trophy, of course, was the ’03 Pats, who had won it just two seasons earlier (and would win it again in ’04).

The moral: Don’t get your hopes too high if your team finishes its season on an upswing. It could lead to greater success, but the odds are against it. Why? Oh, you could probably come up with a bunch of reasons — injuries, free-agent defections, a tougher schedule, bad luck, and on and on. Then, too, winning games when you’re out of the running – as many of these clubs were – is a lot like gaining yards when you’re hopelessly behind. They might make things look a little better, but looks can be deceiving.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book

Share

Tom Tupa’s claim to fame

Twenty years ago this week, Tom Tupa, the well-traveled punter-quarterback (Cardinals/Colts/Browns/Patriots/Jets/Bucs/Redskins), staked off a little bit of history for himself. Can you remember what he did?

In Cleveland’s opener against Cincinnati, Tupa scored the NFL’s first two-point conversion. (That is, as opposed to the two-pointers scored in the AFL before the leagues merged and eliminated the option — temporarily.)

After the first Browns touchdown, Tupa trotted out to hold for the PAT. But after taking the snap, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported, he “duped the Bengals and ran up the middle” for two points, giving his club an 11-0 lead. Cincy never recovered. (Or something like that.)

His daring coach? Bill Belichick — the same guy who, following a Patriots TD in the 2005 regular-season finale, said to Doug Flutie, “Why don’t you go in and dropkick the point-after?” (The 43-Screen Shot 2014-09-05 at 12.01.05 PMyear-old Flutie, playing in his last NFL game, booted it right through, of course.)

Tupa became a minor sensation in ’94 by scoring three two-point conversions, which tied the AFL record for a season and is still the second-most all time. Here’s a newspaper story detailing his heroics. According to this account, “The Bengals overplayed the right side of the Browns’ line, Tupa took the direct snap from center and ran untouched to the left behind Orlando Brown’s pancake block on Steve Tovar.”

Note, too, Tupa’s two-pointer against the Houston Oilers made Cleveland’s final margin 11-8 – the only 11-8 game, it turns out, in NFL annals. (Then again, had he been unsuccessful, it would have been the only 9-8 game in NFL annals.)

Two decades into this Two-Point Conversion Thing, you can’t say it’s had a profound impact. There’s never been a two-pointer in the Super Bowl that truly mattered, and only a handful that figured in other games of significance. One of the more notable ones in recent years was when Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins ran for two points in the final minute of regulation against the Ravens in 2012 to send the teams to overtime (where Washington prevailed, 31-28). The victory kept the streaking Redskins in the playoff hunt, and Baltimore – surprise, surprise – went on to win the Lombardi Trophy.

Bottom line: The two-point conversion has been a nice conversation piece, something to occasionally screw up the betting line, but not much more than that.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, The Official NFL Record and Fact Book, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Toledo Blade.

Share

A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign or trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets – Joe Namath’s team – have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

Year  Team (Record) Receivers, Yards Result
1984  Dolphins (14-2) Mark Clayton 1,389, Mark Duper 1,306 Lost Super Bowl
1995  Lions (10-6) Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488 Wild Card
2000  Rams (10-6) Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471 Wild Card
2000  Broncos (11-5) Rod Smith 1,602, Ed McCaffrey 1,317 Wild Card
2002  Steelers (10-5-1) Hines Ward 1,329, Plaxico Burress 1,325 Won Division
2005  Cardinals (5-11) Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402 Missed Playoffs
2006  Colts (12-4) Marvin Harrison 1,366, Reggie Wayne 1,310 Won Super Bowl
2011  Patriots (13-3) Wes Welker 1,569, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1,327 Lost Super Bowl

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high hopes in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because (a.) Wes missed the last three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout to throw to in Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13). The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed in the direction of their two 1,300-Yard Men.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Share

Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team(s) W-L Pct
1969-79 Roger Staubach Cowboys 9-0 1.000
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1 .917
2002-13 Michael Vick Falcons, Eagles 6-1 .857
2007-13 Jay Cutler Broncos, Bears 6-1 .857
1963-68 Frank Ryan Browns 5-1 .833
2008-13 Joe Flacco Ravens 5-1 .833

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

Span Quarterback Team (s) W-L-T Pct
1983-98 John Elway Broncos 12-4-0 .750
1992-10 Brett Favre Packers, Jets, Vikings 12-6-0 .667
1961-78 Fran Tarkenton Vikings, Giants 11-6-1 .639
1998-13 Peyton Manning Colts, Broncos 11-4-0 .733
2002-13 Tom Brady Patriots 11-1-0 .917

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Share

Quality starts for quarterbacks

The quality start has been a statistical staple in baseball for nearly three decades now. If a pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three or fewer runs, he’s credited with one. It’s called Giving Your Team A Chance To Win.

The NFL should have a similar stat for quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be too hard to come up with the criteria. For instance: The league-wide passer rating last season was 84.1 (an all-time high). What if you said, “OK, if a starting QB posted a rating higher than that in a game — if his play was above average — we’ll award him a quality start.”

Sound reasonable? By that standard, here are the only passers who had 10 or more ratings of 84.2 or better:

2013 NFL LEADERS IN QUALITY STARTS

Quarterback, Team Quality Starts
Peyton Manning, Broncos              15
Philip Rivers, Chargers              13
Matt Ryan, Falcons              12
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers              11
Tony Romo, Cowboys              11
Russell Wilson, Seahawks              11
Drew Brees, Saints              10
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers              10
Matthew Stafford, Lions              10

(Minimum: 5 attempts in a game. Maybe you’d prefer this to be more — 10 or 12 or 15. Problem is, when you go back in time, the number of attempts tends to decrease. Bob Griese threw just seven passes in the Dolphins’ Super Bowl VIII win over the Vikings, completing six for 73 yards and a 110.1 rating. That isn’t a quality start?)

Tom Brady, who would normally be on a list like this, only had nine — largely because of all the issues the Patriots had with receivers. Nick Foles, whose 119.2 rating was tops in the NFL, only had nine, too. But remember: He started just 10 games.

At any rate, you get the idea. A quarterback doesn’t have to be spectacular to chalk up a quality start. He just has to be better than ordinary.

The season-by-season quality starts leaders for the rest of the 2000s, in case you’re curious:

Year League Avg Quality Starts Leaders
2012        83.8 Peyton Manning 14, Aaron Rodgers 13, Matt Ryan 13, Russell Wilson 12
2011        82.5 Tom Brady 14, Drew Brees 14, Rodgers 14, Tony Romo 12, Matt Stafford 12
2010        82.2 Brady 14, Joe Flacco 12, Philip Rivers 12
2009        81.2 Rivers 16, Rodgers 15, P. Manning 14, Matt Schaub 14
2008        81.5 Chad Pennington 12, Rivers 12
2007        80.9 Brady 13, Romo 13, David Garrard 12, Matt Hasselbeck 12, P. Manning 12
2006        78.5 P. Manning 14, Carson Palmer 13, Brady 12, Brees 12, Rivers 12
2005        78.2 Palmer 14, Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Jake Delhomme 12, Trent Green 12
2004        80.9 P. Manning 15, Daunte Culpepper 14, Brees 12, Green 12
2003        76.6 Hasselbeck 13, P. Manning 13, Culpepper 12, Steve McNair 12
2002        78.6 Rich Gannon 13, P. Manning 12, Pennington 12
2001        76.6 Gannon 14, Jeff Garcia 14, Brett Favre 12
2000        76.2 Gannon 13, Garcia 12, Elvis Grbac 12, P. Manning 12

I must admit, I came away with a new appreciation for Gannon after taking a look at these numbers. When he was with the Raiders at the end of his career, he led or tied for the lead in quality starts three years running. The only other quarterback who’s done that in the modern era (read: since 1960) is John Hadl of the AFL’s Chargers from ’65 to ’67.

And how about Rivers? In ’09 he had 16 quality starts in 16 games. Who knew?

In fact, he’s one of just five modern QBs who’ve had a quality start in every scheduled game. The club:

QBS WHO HAD QUALITY STARTS IN ALL THEIR TEAM’S GAMES (SINCE ’60)

Year Quarterback, Team Quality Starts Result (W-L-T)
2009 Philip Rivers, Chargers              16 Won division (13-3)
1992 Steve Young, 49ers              16 NFC finalist (14-2)
1984 Dan Marino, Dolphins              16 Super Bowl finalist (14-2)
1973 Fran Tarkenton, Vikings              14 Super Bowl finalist (12-2)
1960 Milt Plum, Browns              12 Missed playoffs (8-3-1)

● Young was a machine in the ’90s. He had a streak of 23 straight quality starts from ’91 to ’93 and another of 21 straight from ’94 to ’95. Marino’s best streak was 22 from ’83 through ’84. More recently, Peyton Manning had a 23-game streak snapped last season in that wild Sunday nighter against the Patriots. Streaks of 20 or longer are extremely rare. (Note: In all four cases, playoff games are included.)

● A little respect, please, for Fran Tarkenton. In addition to his gem of a 1973 season, he had 12 quality starts in his final year (1978) at the age of 38. Only one quarterback in the league had more (Archie Manning, Saints, 13).

● Plum’s forgotten season is one of the greatest in NFL history. Through 11 games — they only played 12 back then — he had just one interception. He finished with a rating of 110.4, which is still the 11th-highest of all time. And get this: The rest of the passers in the league had a combined rating of 57.8, barely half of his. Incredible.

One more note:

● In 1986 Jim Kelly tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. The Bills went 4-9 in those games.

Which brings us to . . .

MOST QUALITY STARTS, LAST FIVE SEASONS

Quarterback,Team Quality Starts
Philip Rivers, Chargers              62
Aaron Rodgers, Packers              60
Tom Brady, Patriots              59
Drew Brees, Saints              58
Peyton Manning, Colts/Broncos              53

Obviously, Manning missed all of 2010 and Rodgers nearly half of last season with injuries, but aren’t any real surprises here, are there? Except maybe that Rivers — the only one who hasn’t won (or even been to) a Super Bowl — ranks right up there with Big Boys in the week-in, week-out performance department.

The only drawback to my definition of a “quality start,” of course, is that you don’t know what the league-wide passer rating is until the regular season is over. (Last year it was 84.1, the year before that 83.8, the year before that 82.5.) In baseball, we know as soon as a pitcher heads to the showers whether he’s met all the requirements.

But there’s no question the NFL needs a stat like this. It’s just a matter of where the league wants to set the bar. I mean, how can you keep track of Yards After Contact for running backs and Yards After Catch for receivers and not have quality starts for quarterbacks?

Sources: pro-football reference.com, The National Forgotten League.

Share

Thoughts on the Logan Mankins trade

For me, there are two surprises in the following chart. The first is that only eight rookie tight ends in NFL history have had 50 or more receptions. The second is that every one of them went in the first 40 picks of the draft except for Tim Wright, the guy the Patriots just acquired from the Bucs for six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins. Wright, who played his college ball at Rutgers, was passed over by all 32 teams a year ago.

ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS WHO HAVE CAUGHT 50 OR MORE PASSES

Year  Tight End, Team Rec Yds Avg TD Round-Pick
1988  Keith Jackson, Eagles 81 869 10.7 6 1-13
2002  Jeremy Shockey, Giants 74 894 12.1 2 1-14
1961  Mike Ditka, Bears 56 1,076 19.2 12 1-5
2008  John Carlson, Seahawks 55 627 11.4 5 2-38
1973  Charle Young, Eagles 55 854 15.5 6 1-6
1998  Cam Cleeland, Saints 54 684 12.7 6 2-40
2013  Tim Wright, Bucs 54 571 10.6 5 Undrafted
2010  Jermaine Gresham, Bengals 52 471 9.1 4 1-21

That’s right, no Rob Gronkowski (42 receptions). No Jimmy Graham (31). No Tony Gonzalez (33). No Kellen Winslow Sr. or Jr. (30 combined in their first season). No Shannon Sharpe (7). Maybe this Wright kid is better than we think. (Of course, before today, when the deal was announced, how often did he even cross our minds?)

At the every least, Wright provides low-cost Gronk Insurance in the event the all-world tight end is slow coming back from knee surgery. When No. 87 was out of the lineup last year, the Patriots’ supercharged offense seemed more like a stick shift. Wright also creates significant cap space in case the Pats want to hang onto Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option is a gargantuan $20 million. Mankins, after all, had the Pats’ second-highest cap number after Tom Brady; Wright, meanwhile, like most undrafted free agents, subsists on gruel.

Still, trading a guard with Mankins’ resumé . . . how often has that happened? Well, I dug up one similar example back in the ’70s. (Which isn’t to say there might not be others.) I also found a couple of guards who were dealt after being voted to five Pro Bowls — and two more who were sent packing after being voted to three. The particulars, chronologically:

● Walt Sweeney, Chargers to Redskins (January 1974) — A nine-time Pro Bowler in San Diego (1964-72), Sweeney joined George Allen’s Over the Hill Gang at the age of 33. He started for two seasons in Washington before calling it a career. The Chargers received fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round picks spread over three drafts.

● Ed White, Vikings to Chargers (July 1978) — White had made three Pro Bowls in Minnesota and would make another in San Diego. Though already 31, he ended up playing eight more seasons (which Mankins might try to do just out of spite). The Vikes, in return, got Rickey Young, who caught 88 passes in his first year with them, a record for running backs (since broken).

● Joe DeLamielleure, Bills to Browns (September 1980) — Hall of Famer DeLamielleure, then 29, had been selected for five Pro Bowls in Buffalo and added a sixth in Cleveland. The Bills came away with second- and third-round picks.

● R.C. Thielemann, Falcons to Redskins (August 1985) — Atlanta needed a wideout. Washington wasn’t sold on its right guard. So the 30-year-old Thielemann, a three-time Pro Bowler with the Falcons, was swapped Charlie Brown, who was coming off an injury-marred season after tying for the NFC lead in receptions in ’83. R.C. was just a spoke in the wheel with the Redskins, but he did start on their ’87 championship team.

● Kent Hill, Los Angeles Rams to Houston Oilers (September 1986) — This was the trade, two games into the season, that enabled L.A. to obtain the rights to unsigned QB Jim Everett, the third pick in the ’86 draft (who had no desire to sit behind Canton-bound Warren Moon). Hill, part of a mega-package that included DE William Fuller and two No. 1s, was 29 and had gone to five Pro Bowls. He played that year and one more in Houston and then retired.

As for Everett, he didn’t win the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, but after moving to the Saints he did leave us with this memorable clip:

Anyway, yeah, this Mankins trade is extremely rare. I wouldn’t want to be the team that comes out on the short end of it.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, NFL.com

Share

The shelf life of a multiple-championship coach

Hardly a day goes by that some Media Type doesn’t wonder — on radio, TV or in print — whether Tom Brady will win another Super Bowl. To which I reply: Never mind Brady. Will Bill Belichick win another Super Bowl? Coaches have an expiration date, too.

And the Man in the Grey Cotton Hoodie may have passed his. No coach, after all, has won the Lombardi Trophy later than his 18th season in an NFL head job (the Cowboys’ Tom Landry in 1977). Belichick is in his 20th — five with the Browns, 15 with the Patriots. So if he wins his fourth title, he’ll set a modern record for shelf life.

Yes, Tom Coughlin was 65 when his Giants took the championship in 2011, three years older than Belichick is now. And yes, that made him the oldest Super Bowl-winning coach. But it was “only” his 16th season as a head man. He’d have to capture a third title to top Landry.

And yes, Dick Vermeil was 63 when his Rams ran off with the Lombardi Trophy in 1999, a year older than Belichick is now. But because of a lengthy sabbatical, it was only his 10th season as a head coach. (Age, I’m convinced, is less important than the Number of Years in a Head Job — the pro football equivalent of dog years.)

Here’s a chart I put together of the coaches who’ve won multiple championships in the Super Bowl era. It’s followed by a second chart of those who won multiple championships before the Super Bowl. Weeb Ewbank straddles the two periods, but I included him in the first group because, well, when you’ve coached Joe Namath, you have to be considered a modern coach. How many quarterbacks have been more “mod” than Broadway Joe?

Anyway, these are Belichick’s true peers, more so than one-timers like Tony Dungy (’06 Colts), Bill Cowher (’05 Steelers) and Hank Stram (’69 Chiefs), among others.

SUPER BOWL ERA

Coach Team(s) Years Titles 1st Title Last Title Span (Seasons)
Tom Coughlin Jaguars, Giants 18 2 12th season 16th season 5 (2007-11)
Bill Belichick Browns, Patriots 20 3 7th season 10th season 4 (2001-04)
Mike Shanahan Broncos, 2 others 20 2 5th season 6th season 2 (1997-98)
George Seifert 49ers, Panthers 11 2 1st season 6th season 6 (1989-94)
Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, Dolphins   9 2 4th season 5th season 2 (1992-93)
Joe Gibbs Redskins 16 3 2nd season 11th season 10 (1982-91)
Bill Parcells Giants, 3 others 19 2 4th season 8th season 5 (1986-90)
Bill Walsh 49ers 10 3 3rd season 10th season 8 (1981-88)
Tom Flores Raiders, Seahawks 12 2 2nd season 5th season 4 (1980-83)
Chuck Noll Steelers 23 4 6th season 11th season 6 (1974-79)
Tom Landry Cowboys 29 2 12th season 18th season 7 (1971-77)
Don Shula Colts, Dolphins 33 3 6th season 11th season 6 (1968-73)
Weeb Ewbank Colts, Jets 20 3 5th season 15th season 11 (1958-68)
Vince Lombardi Packers, Redskins 10 5 3rd season 9th season 7 (1961-67)

One of the things that’s interesting about this chart is the span of seasons in which these coaches won titles. Belichick has one of the shorter ones — four (from 2001 through ’04). Only two guys have reached double digits: Ewbank (11, from the ’58 Colts to the ’68 Jets) and Gibbs (10, from the ’82 to the ’91 Redskins).

None of these 14 coaches, though, went a decade between championships. (Ewbank also won in ’59 with the Colts, and Joe also won in ’87 with the Redskins.) That’s what Belichick is trying to do — and if he succeeds, he’ll be the first in the Super Bowl era to pull it off.

It was different in the old days. The Bears’ George Halas, of course, owned the franchise, and other coaches, like Packers founder Curly Lambeau, practically had tenure. So in the next chart you see longer spans — 43 seasons for Halas (though he coached in “only” 35 of them), 20 for Jimmy Conzelman (though he coached in the NFL in only eight of them, leaving to take jobs in college ball and baseball) and 16 for Lambeau. (The thing about Conzelman is, he won titles with the single-wing Providence Steam Roller in 1928 and the T-formation Chicago Cardinals in ’47. That’s staying power. That’s adaptability.)

PRE-SUPER BOWL

Coach Team(s) Years Titles 1st Title Last Title Span (Seasons)
George Halas Bears (Staleys) 40 6 2nd season 36th season 43 (1921-63)
Paul Brown (+ AAC) Browns, Bengals 25 7 1st season 10th season 10 (1946-55)
Paul Brown (NFL only) Browns, Bengals 21 3 1st season 6th season 6 (1950-55)
Buddy Parker Lions, 2 others 15 2 3rd season 4th season 2 (1952-53)
Greasy Neale Eagles 10 2 8th season 9th season 2 (1948-49)
Jimmy Conzelman Cards, 4 others 15 2 7th season 14th season 20 (1928-47)
Curly Lambeau Packers, 2 others 33 6 9th season 24th season 16 (1929-44)
Ray Flaherty Redskins 7 2 2nd season 7th season 6 (1937-42)
Steve Owen Giants 23 2 4th season 8th season 5 (1934-38)
Guy Chamberlin Canton, 2 others 6 4 1st season 5th season 5 (1922-26)

But then, this is Bill Belichick we’re talking about, the winningest coach of his time. He’s returned twice to the Super Bowl in recent years and come up empty but, being Bill, may yet get another shot. The odds are against him, though, and sometimes those can be as hard to overcome as a miracle David Tyree catch in the final seconds.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Share

A matched set of 1,300-yard receivers

When they kick off Sunday against the Texans at NRG Stadium, the Redskins will be able to line up not one but two wideouts who had 1,300 receiving yards last season — Pierre Garcon (1,346) and Eagles exile DeSean Jackson (1,332). This is the second year in a row we’ve had this situation. In 2013 it was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas (1,434 in ’12) and Wes Welker (1,354 for the Patriots).

Talk about conspicuous consumption. Usually when a team adds a receiver coming off a 1,300-yard season — think Jeff Graham going from the Bears to the Jets in ’96 or Muhsin Muhammad leaving Carolina for Chicago in ’05 — it’s because it needs one. The Broncos and Redskins are the first clubs in NFL history to sign/trade for a 1,300-yard receiver when they already had one.1

A 1,300-yard receiving season is no small thing. The Seahawks, for instance, have never had a 1,300-yard guy. We’re talking 38 years and counting. (Steve Largent topped out at 1,287.) Neither have the Ravens, though they only go back to ’96. The Jets — Joe Namath’s team — have had one (Don Maynard with 1,434 in ’67). Even with the 16-game schedule, 1,300 yards are a lot.

I’ve turned up just eight teams that have had a pair of 1,300-yard receivers in the same year. In one case, one of the receivers was a tight end. The list:

Year  Team (Record) Receivers, Yards Result
1984  Dolphins (14-2) Mark Clayton 1,389, Mark Duper 1,306 Lost Super Bowl
1995  Lions (10-6) Herman Moore 1,686, Brett Perriman 1,488 Wild Card
2000  Rams (10-6) Torry Holt 1,635, Isaac Bruce 1,471 Wild Card
2000  Broncos (11-5) Rod Smith 1,602, Ed McCaffrey 1,317 Wild Card
2002  Steelers (10-5-1) Hines Ward 1,329, Plaxico Burress 1,325 Won Division
2005  Cardinals (5-11) Larry Fitzgerald 1,409, Anquan Boldin 1,402 Missed Playoffs
2006  Colts (12-4) Marvin Harrison 1,366, Reggie Wayne 1,310 Won Super Bowl
2011  Patriots (13-3) Wes Welker 1,569, Rob Gronkowski (TE) 1,327 Lost Super Bowl

Note that seven of the eight clubs made the playoffs, three reached the Super Bowl and one took home the Lombardi Trophy. You can understand, then, why there are such high expectations in Washington — as there were in Denver a year ago (when the Broncos won the AFC title).

The question, of course, is: Will Jackson’s presence take yards away from Garcon — or vice versa? Welker’s total, after all, dropped to 778 in his first season with the Broncos (while Thomas’ stayed steady at 1,430). But that might not be the best comparison because: (a.) Wes missed three games with a concussion, and (b.) Peyton Manning had another capable wideout, Eric Decker (1,288 yards in ’13), to throw to. The Redskins have no third option like Decker, so most of the passes should be headed toward Garcon or Jackson.

1 The closest anyone came before this was the Packers in 1981. With James Lofton coming off a 1,226-yard year, they acquired John Jefferson (1,340 in ’80) in a deal with the Chargers.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

Share

The “Savagery on Sunday” trial

In October 1955 Life magazine tackled the issue of NFL violence head-on with an exposé titled:

Screen Shot 2014-07-15 at 4.08.34 PM

 

Not surprisingly, two of the players the magazine identified as “bad boys,” middle guard Bucko Kilroy and linebacker Wayne Robinson of the Eagles, brought $250,000 libel suits against the publisher, Time, Inc. This led to one of the more entertaining — and educational — trials in league history.

The case wasn’t tried until 1958, by which time Kilroy and Robinson were retired. Here’s an excerpt from Kilroy’s testimony that deals with an episode during the ’48 preseason, when he kicked Bears guard Ray Bray in the groin. Keep in mind this is the future general manager of the Patriots talking:

https://profootballdaly.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Kilroy-Testimony-Excerpt.pdf

In the end, Life‘s “evidence” was too shaky to hold up. Kilroy and Robinson didn’t walk away with $250,000 for having their characters impugned, but they were awarded $11,600 each, which is more than either ever made in a season. More important, as far as the NFL is concerned: no publication since has gone after it so aggressively on the problem of dirty play. It’s just a hard accusation to prove, given the nature of the sport.

Down the road, I’ll post more testimony from the trial, which lasted eight days and saw Commissioner Bert Bell and fellow Hall of Famers Otto Graham, Doak Walker and Em Tunnell called to the stand. You haven’t lived until you’ve read the following words, straight from the commish’s lips:

I don’t read the rules too thoroughly. . . . I couldn’t study those rules in a hundred years. They are technical in every way else.

Share

The incredible shrinking running back

Much was made during the offseason about the running back’s diminished importance in today’s pass-first offenses. For the second year in a row — an NFL first — no runner was taken in Round 1 of the draft. So I thought I’d work up some charts that showed exactly why.

As you can see below, 10 of the 14 Super Bowl winners in the 2000s have had a quarterback who ranked in the Top 10 in the league in passer rating, but only three have had a back that ranked in the Top 10 in rushing (one of them being the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch last year).

For that matter, just four of the champs had a Top 10 receiver, and five of them (including Seattle) didn’t even have a 1,000-yard guy. It’s more about Spreading the Ball Around now. (So how come nobody’s talking about the Incredible Shrinking Wideout?)

It wasn’t like this in the early years of the free agency (1993-99). Elite runners and elite receivers were very much a part of winning titles. Five of the seven championship clubs had Top 10 rushers and just as many had Top 10 pass-catchers. The specifics:

Year Champion QB, Rating (Rank) Top Rusher, Yds (Rank) Top Receiver, Yds (Rank)
2013 Seahawks Russell Wilson, 101.2 (7) Marshawn Lynch, 1,257 (6) Golden Tate, 898 (31)
2012 Ravens Joe Flacco, 87.7 (14) Ray Rice, 1,143 (11) Anquan Boldin, 921 (27)
2011 Giants Eli Manning, 92.9 (7) Ahmad Bradshaw, 659 (29) Victor Cruz, 1,536 (3)
2010 Packers Aaron Rodgers, 101.2 (3) Brandon Jackson, 703 (33) Greg Jennings, 1,265 (4)
2009 Saints Drew Brees, 109.6 (1) Pierre Thomas, 793 (T24) Marques Colston, 1,074 (18)
2008 Steelers B.Roethlisberger, 80.1 (24) Willie Parker, 791 (26) Hines Ward, 1,043 (15)
2007 Giants Eli Manning, 73.9 (25) B. Jacobs, 1,009 (T15) Plaxico Burress, 1,025 (21)
2006 Colts P. Manning, 101.0 (1) Joseph Addai, 1,081 (18) Marvin Harrison, 1,366 (2)
2005 Steelers B.Roethlisberger, 98.6 (3) Willie Parker, 1,202 (12) Hines Ward, 975 (22)
2004 Patriots Tom Brady, 92.9 (9) Corey Dillon, 1,635 (3) David Givens, 874 (32)
2003 Patriots Tom Brady, 85.9 (10) Antowain Smith, 642 (30) Deion Branch, 803 (32)
2002 Bucs Brad Johnson, 92.9 (3) Michael Pittman, 718 (32) K. Johnson, 1,088 (16)
2001 Patriots Tom Brady, 86.5 (6) Antowain Smith, 1,157 (12) Troy Brown, 1,199 (10)
2000 Ravens Trent Dilfer, 76.6 (21) Jamal Lewis, 1,364 (7) Shannon Sharpe, 810 (32)

Now look at the 1993-to-1999 period:

Year Champion QB, Rating (Rank) Top Rusher, Yards (Rank) Top Receiver, Yards (Rank)
1999 Rams Kurt Warner, 109.2 (1) Marshall Faulk, 1,381 (5) Isaac Bruce, 1,165 (12)
1998 Broncos John Elway, 93.0 (5) Terrell Davis, 2,008 (1) Rod Smith, 1,222 (4)
1997 Broncos John Elway, 87.5 (7) Terrell Davis, 1,750 (2) Rod Smith, 1,180 (T8)
1996 Packers Brett Favre, 95.8 (2) Edgar Bennett, 899 (14) Antonio Freeman, 933 (24)
1995 Cowboys Troy Aikman, 93.6 (3) Emmitt Smith, 1,773 (1) Michael Irvin, 1,603 (4)
1994 49ers Steve Young, 112.8 (1) Ricky Watters, 877 (15) Jerry Rice, 1,499 (1)
1993 Cowboys Troy Aikman, 99.0 (2) Emmitt Smith, 1,486 (1) Michael Irvin, 1,330 (2)

This gives us the following breakdown:

Period (Seasons) Top 10 QBs Top 10 RBs Top 10 Receivers
2000-13 (14) 10 3 4
1993-99 (7) 7 5 5

Another indication of the position’s decline: None of the Top 10 postseasons by a Super Bowl-winning running back have come in this century. The party pretty much ended with the Broncos’ Terrell Davis in 1997 and ’98.

Year RB, Team Games Yards Per Game
1998 Terrell Davis, Broncos 3 468 156.0
1983 Marcus Allen, Raiders 3 466 155.3
1982 John Riggins, Redskins 4 610 152.5
1997 Terrell Davis, Broncos 4 581 145.3
1974 Franco Harris, Steelers 3 343 114.3
1987 Timmy Smith, Redskins 3 342 114.0
1992 Emmitt Smith, Cowboys 3 336 112.0
1973 Larry Csonka, Dolphins 3 333 111.0
1975 Franco Harris, Steelers 3 314 104.7
1986 Joe Morris, Giants 3 313 104.3

Top three postseasons by running backs on Super Bowl losers: Thurman Thomas with the 1990 Bills (3/309/130), Frank Gore with the 2012 49ers (3/319/106.3) and Marshall Faulk with the 2001 Rams (3/317/105.7).

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, nfl.com

Share