Tag Archives: quarterbacks

A small bone to pick with FiveThirtyEight

Lord knows, I love stats. Love what you can learn from them. Love just playing around with them to see what turns up. And what FiveThirtyEight.com’s Neil Paine does with stats in his revisionist piece about the Greatest Show on Turf — the 1999 Rams offense — is terrific. By all means read it, if you haven’t already.

My only quibble is Paine’s overinflation of Kurt Warner’s ’99 season. “Warner ended up completing 65.1 percent of his passes,” he writes, “which at the time was the third-best single-season completion percentage by any quarterback ever.11” Third-best ever. Wow. That one caught me by surprise. Then I chased down the footnote and found out he was talking about only “quarterbacks with 450 attempts.”

I’m not sure what, in Paine’s mind, is so magical about 450 attempts — other than that it allows him to say Warner’s completion rate was “the third-best . . . ever.” After all, 450 attempts are a lot of attempts. Only three NFL quarterbacks had that many in a season before 1978, when the schedule was increased to 16 games and rule changes turned pro football into the passer’s paradise we have today. (Note: Five more had 450-plus in the bombs-away AFL.)

But that’s a minor point because, the rules being what they were, almost no quarterback back then was going to complete 65.1 percent of his passes — unless it was the Redskins’ Sammy Baugh hitting 70.3 in the talent-starved war year of 1945. Show me a QB in those days who connected on 65.1 percent, and I’ll show you an extraterrestrial.

The larger point is: Why 450 attempts? Steve Young threw 447 passes in 11 starts for the ’95 49ers and completed 66.9 percent (1.8 percent more than Warner). We’re just going to leave him out? Then there’s Joe Montana, who threw 386 passes in 13 starts for the ’89 Niners and completed 70.2 percent (5.1 percent more than Warner). We’re going to ignore that season, too, even though Joe set a record that year (since broken) with a 112.4 rating?

What I’m objecting to is the arbitrariness of “450 attempts,” which serves no real purpose except to make Warner’s season look better. And here’s the thing: Neither he nor the story of the ’99 Rams offense needs any ginning up. His numbers are perfectly capable of standing on their own, without any creative massaging. It was, by any measure, a fabulous year, among the greatest of all time. For Paine create this imaginary 450 Attempts World — in which Warner has “the third-best single-season completion percentage by any quarterback ever” — is just plain silly.

To qualify for the passing title, a QB needs to throw 224 passes (14 per scheduled game). If you make that your threshold, Warner had the 17th-best completion rate ever. The Top 5:

HIGHEST SINGLE-SEASON COMPLETION RATES THROUGH 1999

[table width=“400px”]

Year,Quarterback\, Team,Att,Comp,Pct

1982,Ken Anderson\, Bengals,309,218,70.6

1994,Steve Young\, 49ers,461,324,70.3

1989,Joe Montana\, 49ers,386,271,70.2

1993,Troy Aikman\, Cowboys,392,271,69.1

1993,Steve Young\, 49ers,462,314,68.0

[/table]

Minimum: 224 passes.

(Note: The schedule was only nine games in ’82 because of a player strike.)

Again, Warner had a sensational season, especially when you consider his 41 touchdown passes, 109.2 rating and Disneyesque backstory as a former Arena Leaguer. But making the cutoff 224 attempts, the league standard, instead of 450 tones down the idolatry a little — which is what statistical research is supposed to do.

Of course, 17th doesn’t sound nearly as good as “third-best . . . ever.” But what are you gonna do? It’s one thing to ignore Frank Filchock’s 111.6 passer rating for the 1939 Redskins because it isn’t “modern” — even though, coupled with his 413 rushing yards (ninth in the league), it was one of the most amazing years in NFL history. But when you disqualify seasons by recent Hall of Famers like Steve Young, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman because they fall short of some arbitrary minimum (450 attempts – and not a pass less!), that’s when I’m going to pipe up.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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A flash in the pan . . . or the real deal?

Granted, this is his third NFL season, but the Redskins’ Kirk Cousins had a 400-yard passing game Sunday against the Eagles in just his fifth NFL start. Not too shabby.

What’s surprising is how many quarterbacks have accomplished the feat just as quickly – or even more quickly. I came up with eight since 1960, and there could be a few more further back.

FEWEST STARTS IT TOOK A QUARTERBACK TO HAVE A 400-YARD GAME

[table]

Date,Quarterback (Year),Team,Opponent,Start,Yds,Result

9-11-11,Cam Newton (1st),Panthers,Cardinals,1st,422,L\, 28-21

1-1-12,Matt Flynn (4th),Packers,Lions,2nd,480,W\, 45-41

11-14-99,Jim Miller (6th),Bears,Vikings,2nd,422,L\, 27-24

11-29-87,Tom Ramsey (5th),Patriots,Eagles,2nd,402,L\, 34-31

9-30-12,Ryan Tannehill (1st),Dolphins,Cardinals,4th,431,L\, 24-21

11-10-02,Marc Bulger (2nd),Rams,Chargers,4th,453,W\, 28-24

9-21-14,Kirk Cousins (3rd),Redskins,Eagles,5th,427,L\, 37-34

12-21-69,Don Horn (3rd),Packers,Cardinals,5th,410,W\, 45-28

10-13-61,Jacky Lee (2nd),Oilers,Patriots,5th,457,T\, 31-31

12-13-04,Billy Volek (4th),Titans,Chiefs,6th,426,L\, 49-38

10-10-04,Tim Rattay (5th),49ers,Cardinals,6th,417,W\, 31-28

9-6-98,Glenn Foley (4th),Jets,49ers,6th,415,L\, 36-30

[/table]

Note: Ramsey played two seasons in the USFL before joining the Patriots in 1985. Those years are counted as experience. . . . Newton also threw for 400 yards in his second NFL game/start (432 vs. the Packers in a 30-23 loss). . . . Volek also threw for 400 in his seventh start (492 vs. the Raiders in a 40-35 loss). . . . The combined won-lost record of the group is 4-7-1. Cousins, in other words, has plenty of company in his despair.

As you can see, only two Actual Rookies since 1960 (Newton and Tannehill) have had a 400-yard passing game in their first five starts. The other quarterbacks were in their second, third, fourth, fifth and even sixth season when they did it.

Also, just two of the dozen QBs listed have gone to the Pro Bowl: Newton and Bulger. The others, for the most part, could be described as Serviceable Backups.

So . . . make of Cousins’ big day what you will. Or maybe he should make of it what he will.

OTHER ACTIVE QUARTERBACKS WHO HAD A 400-YARD GAME EARLY

[table]

Date,Quarterback (Year),Team,Opponent,Start,Yds,Result

11-4-12,Andrew Luck (1st),Colts,Dolphins,8th,433,W\, 23-20

9-8-13,Colin Kaepernick (3rd),49ers,Packers,8th,412,W\, 34-28

11-22-09,Matt Stafford (1st),Lions,Browns,8th,422,W\, 38-37

11-3-13,Nick Foles (2nd),Eagles,Raiders,9th,406,W\, 49-20

11-13-08,Matt Cassel (4th),Patriots,Jets,9th,400,L\, 34-31

[/table]

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Peyton Manning: chasing more history

Not sure how much was made of this, but 50 minutes into the Broncos’ Week 3 showdown with the Seahawks, Peyton Manning still hadn’t thrown for a touchdown. And if Seattle had shut him out, Manning likely would have lost his last chance to break the record for most consecutive games with a TD pass. He is, after all, 38 — old enough to be Johnny Manziel’s . . . much older stepbrother.

Almost on cue, though, Manning hit tight ends Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme for scores in the last 9:20 to push his streak to 42 (and tie the game at 20). If he can keep it going through the end of the season, he’ll be at 55 — one more than the mark set by the Saints’ Drew Brees from 2009 to 2012.

It’s a record that has always gotten a fair amount of attention, largely because Hall of Famer Johnny Unitas held it for more than half a century — so long that people began to wonder whether his 47-game streak was unbreakable. But then Brees came along, helped by all the passer-friendly rules that didn’t exist in Unitas’ day (not to mention climate-controlled indoor stadiums and sticky gloves for receivers).

Soon enough, the Patriots’ Tom Brady took a run at Brees, only to have his streak peter out at 52 last season. And now Manning is giving it a go himself, at an age when most quarterbacks are ex-quarterbacks (or, like Johnny U., hanging on by their high tops).

What tends to be forgotten with all these footballs flying around is that it’s hard — even now — to throw a touchdown pass in every game of a season, never mind in 42, 47, 52 or 54 games straight. If it weren’t, everybody would do it. And everybody hasn’t done it.

Joe Montana, for instance, never did it. Neither did John Elway or, for that matter, Sammy Baugh. (And Slingin’ Sam’s seasons were a lot shorter.) You have to be a consistently good passer, of course, but you also have to have luck on your side. You can’t get hurt and miss some time. You can’t run into one of those wicked bad-weather games, the kind NFL Films loves to turn into comic opera. You can’t get yanked early in the regular-season finale because your playoff spot is already set (a fate that befell Manning in 2005).

Something else to keep in mind: When Tom Brady racked up a then-record 50 touchdown passes in 2007, there was still one game where he came up empty — Dec. 16 against the Jets.

By my count, only 18 quarterbacks in NFL-AFL history have thrown a TD pass in every game of a season, be it 16 games, 14, 12 or whatever. The shorter-than-you’d-expect list:

● Three times (2) – Brady, Patriots (2010-12); Brees, Saints (2010-11, ’13).

● Twice (4) – Manning, Broncos (2012-13); Dan Marino, Dolphins (1984, ’86); Unitas, Colts (1957, ’59); Cecil Isbell, Packers (1941-42). (Yes, Cecil Isbell. We’ll get back to him in a moment.)

● Once (12) – Philip Rivers, Chargers (2013); Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (2013); Matthew Stafford, Lions (2011); Daunte Culpepper, Vikings (2004); Brett Favre, Packers (2003); Kurt Warner, Rams (1999); Dave Krieg, Seahawks (1984); Daryle Lamonica, Raiders (1969); Sonny Jurgensen, Redskins (1967); Frank Ryan, Browns (1966); Milt Plum, Browns (1960); Sid Luckman, Bears (1943).

In most cases, you’re talking about a guy’s career year, his absolute peak. Take Plum, for instance. Little remembered today, he had one of the greatest passing seasons of all time in Milt Plum football card1960. His rating of 110.4 — still the 11th best in history — was nearly twice that of the rest of the quarterbacks in the league (57.8). Mind-boggling. How did he accomplish this, you ask? Well, for starters, in the first 11 games (of a 12-game schedule) he was intercepted only once.

Which brings us to Isbell . . . and his unusual apparatus. Cecil, you see, had suffered a separated shoulder in college and was concerned about it popping out again. So he wore a harness that ran a chain from his waist to his (non-throwing) left arm and kept him from raising the arm above the shoulder. I wrote about this in a previous post.

How do you suppose the aforementioned quarterbacks would have done with a similar contraption attached to their anatomies? When Brees blew by Unitas in 2012, much was made — and rightfully so — of the difference between their two eras and how Johnny U.’s mark was more impressive (given how physical the defense was allowed to be with receivers, among other things). But maybe Isbell’s 23-game streak is the most amazing of all.

Especially when you consider he played in a single-wing offense, the Notre Dame Box, and at a time when the air was hardly filled with footballs. In 1942, the Lions (1), Steelers (2) and Brooklyn Dodgers (3) threw for fewer touchdowns all season than Cecil did in a single game against the Cardinals (5).

His 23-game run, counting a playoff for the Western Division title in ’41, stood as the record for 16 years, until Unitas broke it. Even now, tossing a TD pass in 23 consecutive games is no small feat. Plenty of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, recent ones, never pulled it off, including Montana (longest streak: 14), Elway (15), Troy Aikman (16), Steve Young (18), Jim Kelly (18), Dan Fouts (20) and Warren Moon (21).

So why haven’t you heard more about Isbell? Because he retired after five seasons to go into college coaching. The explanation he gave in Chuck Johnson’s book, The Green Bay Packers:

“I hadn’t been up in Green Bay long when I saw [coach Curly] Lambeau go around the locker room and tell players like [Arnie] Herber, [Milt] Gantenbein and Hank Bruder that they were all done with the Packers. These were good players who had given the team good service for years, and they had no money in the pot. But there was no sentiment involved. I sat there and watched, and then I vowed it would never happen to me. I’d quit before they came around to tell me.”

Who knows how much farther Isbell could have extended his streak? He was just 27 when he called it quits, and his go-to receiver, the legendary Don Hutson, still had some good years left. In a war-weakened league, the duo could have continued their assault on the record book until Hutson hung ’em up in 1945. (Cecil’s shoulder kept him out of the military.)

“Isbell was a master at any range,” Lambeau told Johnson. “He could throw soft passes, bullet passes or feathery lobs. He was the best, with Sid Luckman of the Bears a close second and Sammy Baugh of the Redskins a long third. Luckman wasn’t as versatile and Baugh couldn’t compare on the long ones.”

But then, Curly was prejudiced. Mel Hein, the Giants’ Hall of Fame center, ranked the passers a little differently — Baugh first, then Isbell and Luckman. “Isbell reminds me of the old days,” he once said. “It’s a rare thing in these times to see the passer fade out of his pocket or normal passing zone, but Isbell will do it casually, up to 15 yards or more. I remember seeing him back up 20 yards before he let go with a 55-yarder that beat us in a Los Angeles all-star game. This is where he differs chiefly from Baugh, who dotes on the short pass.”

(“It was passing at its most perfect and sensational,” Henry McLemore of the United Press said of the bomb to Hutson in the all-star game. “The ball traveled 67 yards in the air.”)

Here’s Isbell flipping a 31-yard touchdown pass to Joe Laws in the ’39 championship game win over the Giants. Note how he gets hit just after he releases the ball.

However you rank ’em, ol’ Cecil could play — and definitely belongs in the same sentence with Brees, Unitas and Manning, chain or no chain.

Sources: pro-football-reference.com, NFL.com

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Sound Bites III

As we’re seeing with the Browns’ Johnny Manziel, NFL teams sometimes break in rookie quarterbacks ver-ry slowly, putting in packages for them every week until they’re ready to run the whole offense. It’s been that way since Y.A. Tittle had hair.

If Manziel ever gets discouraged, he should read this quote from one of the top quarterbacks in the 1964 draft, Jack Concannon — who, like Johnny Football, was a dangerous runner. (Later that year, he threw two touchdown passes and rushed for 99 yards to help the Eagles beat the Cowboys.) Moral: Things can always be worse.

“I was at halfback for three weeks because of injuries to three of our running backs, and I didn’t care for it too much. As a matter of fact, in my first game I was at left halfback. It was against the Giants, and the Eagles had started me with three plays — a halfback pass, an end run and a fake end run with a reverse.

“That’s the way [Packers Hall of Famer] Paul Hornung started, with three plays. The only trouble was the Giants knew the three plays, and you can imagine how I felt when they started calling them [out to one another]. The first play was a reverse, and we lost about 20 yards. The next one was the end run, and I gained maybe two yards. The third was the halfback pass, and I was smeared.

“That was my introduction to pro football. I thought the league would be rough. It was even rougher than I expected.”

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A little option action from Colin Kaepernick

Hope you enjoyed Colin Kaepernick breaking out the option Sunday during the 49ers’ 28-17 win over the Cowboys. OK, so it didn’t gain any yards. In fact, his pitch to LaMichael James resulted in a 1-yard loss. But it’s the thought that counts.

Here’s the Lions’ Greg Landry having a bit more success with it in 1973:

Now that’s how to run the option. Landry rushed for over 500 yards in consecutive (14-game) seasons in ’71 and ’72, a first for an NFL quarterback. The running back who took the pitch on the first play, as Howard Cosell pointed out, was Altie Taylor.

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Hysteria in Redskinsland

Now that was fast. Seems like just yesterday Robert Griffin III was the Future of the Franchise and one of the best young quarterbacks the NFL has seen. Now a segment of the population — commentators included — are wondering whether his eye-popping rookie season was a mirage, whether he’s merely another overhyped, self-absorbed player who, in a true meritocracy, wouldn’t even be the Redskins’ starter.

The Shawshank Redemption is full of great voiceovers, and one of my favorites is when Red (Morgan Freeman) is talking about Andy’s escape from prison. Near the end, he says, “Andy did like he was told, buffed those shoes [of the warden’s] to a high mirror shine. The guards simply didn’t notice [him walking back to his cell in them]. Neither did I. I mean, seriously, how often do you really look at a man’s shoes?”

I found myself thinking of that line earlier this week when Washington Post columnist Jason Reid started ripping Griffin’s shoes — and his socks, too. On the opening day of training camp, RG3 “separated himself from everyone else on the field,” Reid wrote,

by wearing a black sock and a black cleat and a white sock and a white cleat. Griffin explained it was something he has done since college to represent the “yin and the yang. White and black working together. We’re all brothers. We’re doing it together” Okay. Whatever.

But Griffin’s ineffectiveness and feud with the Shanahans led to the relationship being detonated. How could Griffin think it would be a good idea to stand out from his teammates on a day that marked a new beginning for the group? And Griffin’s insistence on clinging to his college days is tripping him up in the pros.

Reid is obviously willing to go the extra mile, to “really look at a man’s shoes” (not to mention his socks). In fact, if the Redskins lay another dinosaur egg this year, and Griffin has anything to do with it, I fully expect a three-part Post series on “The shoes (and socks) that sank a season.” Or maybe it’ll just be two parts — one for the shoes and one for the socks.

I ask you: As well known as RG3 is — Heisman Trophy winner, NFL offensive rookie of the year, endorsements up the wazoo, more jersey sales in a season than any player in league history — do you really think he was trying to attract more attention to himself and stand apart from his teammates? Something tells me he’s already got the Attention Thing covered.

But moving along . . . we all know how good Griffin’s first season was. Here’s the list of rookie quarterbacks, in the first 94 years of the league, who’ve had 3,000 passing yards, completed 65 percent, thrown for 20 TDs and had a 100 rating:

Robert Griffin III, Redskins, 2012 (3,200, 65.6, 20, 102.4)

That’s it. And remember, he missed a game — against a lousy Browns club. His stats could have been better.

But never mind that. Exactly how bad was he last season, in terms of where he is in his career? Well, for a 23-year-old, he actually played pretty well. My research turned up just five QBs who, at that age, equaled or exceeded RG3’s numbers in the aforementioned four categories (3,203 yards, 60.1 percent completions, 16 TDs, 82.2 rating):

[table]

Year,Quarterback\, Team,Yards,Pct,TD,Rating,W-L

2011,Matthew Stafford\, Lions,5\,038,63.5,41,97.2,10-6*

2008,Matt Ryan\, Falcons,3\,440,61.1,16,87.7,11-5*

2000,Daunte Culpepper\, Vikings,3\,937,62.7,33,98.0,11-5*

1999,Peyton Manning\, Colts,4\,135,62.1,26,90.7,13-3*

1984,Dan Marino\, Dolphins,5\,084,64.2,48,108.9,14-2*

[/table]

*made playoffs

Granted, Griffin’s stats put him at the low end of this group, but it’s interesting how every other quarterback made the playoffs — and won at least seven more games than RG3 (3-10) did. Do you suppose some of it might have been because the Redskins defense was a few bricks shy of the Great Wall of China?

Oh, and none of these QBs was coming off a blown-out knee — in January — that turned his offseason into one long rehab session and kept him from taking a single snap in an exhibition game.

We seem to have reached the stage where we think of football players as cartoon characters. They run through a screen door, break into 1,000 pieces, and in the next frame they’re supposed up and running again.

It’s not easy to come back from an ACL/LCL injury as quickly as Griffin did, even with all the advancements in sports medicine. Example: Tom Brady tore up his knee in the Patriots’ 2008 opener and missed the entire season. Even though he had four more months to heal than RG3 did, he clearly wasn’t himself when he returned to the lineup in ’09. Indeed, his rating dropped 21 points, from 117.2 (in ’07) to (96.2). How many points did Robert’s rating drop last year? 20.2.

You’ll be pleased to know, though — well, those of you who don’t belong to the Kirk Cousins Fan Club — that Brady’s rating shot back up to a league-leading 111 the next season. Also, let’s not forget: Tom was a 10th-year player in ’09, not a second-year guy like Griffin was last season. The offense he was stepping back into was as comfortable as an old pair of cleats (both black). RG3, on the other hand, was trying to morph into a more conventional pocket passer a year ago – for self-preservation’s sake. In many ways, it was a whole new world for him.

Reid chided him for demanding “changes in the offense he was not ready to execute.” Yeah, but part of that was because he was too busy picking up the 1,000 pieces he’d broken into to spend the necessary time on the practice field. Beyond that, though, if Griffin didn’t insist on changes, who would have? Mike Shanahan had already shown his willingness to leave RG3 in the game, hobbling around as if he had a peg leg, until his knee finally gave out. (And then Shanny makes a grandstand play and sits Robert for the final three games of last season — for His Own Good. Sorry, Mike, but your humanity is 11 months late.)

What tends to be overlooked about young quarterbacks these days is how incredibly exposed they are. They play sooner — and younger — than ever before because (a.) they’re allowed to turn pro earlier, and (b.) the college game prepares them better. Some of these kids shouldn’t be wearing helmets, they should be wearing incubators.

They’re exposed, too, because they become such a part of their team’s (and the NFL’s) marketing plan. They’re just Out There, in public, all the time. And mobile QBs like Griffin are further exposed because they’re counted on to run the ball . . . and to take the hard knocks that go with it.

Yet some expect them to act with the maturity of a veteran, the equilibrium of the Dalai Lama and selflessness of Mother Teresa. Good luck with that. To paraphrase Forrest Gump’s mom, “Twenty-three is as 23 does.”

If you go by passer rating, RG3 is one of the Top 5 under-25 quarterbacks of all time. (And as you’re looking at the following list, keep in mind: He has another season to add to his totals. He doesn’t turn 25 until February.)

[table]

Years,Quarterback\, Team,Att,Comp,Pct,Yds,TD,Int,Rating

2012-13,Russell Wilson\, Seahawks,668,428,64.1,5\,480,45,16,102.1

2012-13,Nick Foles\, Eagles,582,364,62.5,4\,590,33,7,101.0

1983-86,Dan Marino\, Dolphins,1\,492,911,61.1,11\,975,102,45,96.6

1999-01,Daunte Culpepper\, Vikings,840,532,63.3,6\,549,47,29,91.6

2012-13,Robert Griffin III\, Redskins,849,532,62.7,6\,403,36,17,91.5

[/table]

(Minimum: 500 attempts.)

Griffin is also the No. 3 under-25 QB for rushing yards. (And again, he has another season to add to his total.)

[table width=“400px”]

Years,Quarterback\, Team,Yards

2001-04,Michael Vick\, Falcons,2\,223

2011-13,Cam Newton\, Panthers,2\,032

2012-13,Robert Griffin III\, Redskins,1\,304

1985-87,Randall Cunningham\, Eagles,1\,250

1999-01,Donovan McNabb\, Eagles,1\,201

[/table]

Griffin’s productivity — for his age — ranks way up there. Really, how much more can he do? So his detractors tend to focus on other stuff (e.g. his relationships with teammates, his handling of social media, his alleged family-sized ego and, yes, even his shoes and socks).

Reid went as far as to suggest that RG3 seek out Doug Williams, now a personnel executive with the Redskins, for counsel. “A good mentor,” he wrote, “could teach Griffin much of what he lacks. Luckily for Griffin, the ideal person for the job works in the same office.”

Hoo boy. There wasn’t social media in Williams’ day, but maybe you recall the classy way he handled his divorce in 1989. These are the first few paragraphs of a story he fed the Post’s Tom Friend:

While Redskins quarterback Doug Williams was flattening his NFL opponents the past two seasons, his wife, Lisa, was delivering “the worst sack I ever had in my life,” Williams says. Their next date is Friday in court, where her lawyer says she’ll give her side of the story.

Williams says Lisa Robinson was after his money, fooled him into matrimony, and later let herself get pregnant against his wishes. “She knew I didn’t want a baby,” he says.

The Washington Redskins quarterback couldn’t have been a more eligible bachelor when they were wedded in June 1987, but he says he is convinced now that she masked her personality to win him, later ignored his 6-year-old daughter, Ashley (from his previous marriage), and then robbed him last month while he was working at Redskin Park. . . .

Williams later recanted all this. In court, he testified he’d had affairs with other women during the marriage, and in a statement he said, “Very often during emotionally difficult situations such as I have recently experienced, occasionally improper things are said and done. . . . Any allegations concerning my wife since we separated were said in anger, and to her, her family and friends, I apologize.”

After the split, the Post assigned a Style section writer to get the wife’s version of events (and basically clean up the mess). Near the top of Donna Britt’s piece were these words: “[W]ith her T-shirt, makeup-free face and curly nest of auburn hair, Robinson, 26, looks like a TV-commercial prototype for a young mother busy with bottles, bibs and keeping inedible objects from her baby’s mouth. She does not remotely resemble a heartless gold digger — the ‘con artist’ and ‘thrill-seeker’ who gave Williams ‘the worst sack I ever had in my life’ as he told The Washington Post six weeks ago.”

And Doug back then was, what, a callow youth of . . . almost 34?

Then there was the scene, a couple of years before, when Williams “broke down crying in an interview” after being told Jay Schroeder was being restored as the starting quarterback. Reid has already made it clear he finds Griffin a little too Joe College, a little immature. We can only imagine how he would have reacted if Robert had teared up when Shanahan benched him in favor of Cousins.

At any rate, there are probably better mentors for Griffin than Williams. One might be former teammate London Fletcher, the new CBS analyst, who, during a radio appearance on the Junkies, refuted the notion the QB wasn’t popular in the locker room.

“Robert is probably the most-liked player on the team, or one of the most well-liked players on the team, when I was there, because he’s engaging,” Fletcher said. “He’s charismatic. . . . He was humble. . . . He’s handled himself like that the two years I was there with him, and I’m sure he continues to handle himself that way.”

The NFL is all about survival — for any player — but it was especially so for Fletcher, a 5-foot-10 (maybe), 245-pound (maybe) linebacker. Griffin is getting a crash course in that right now, a tutorial in Weathering the Storm. He’s far from a finished product — at 24, how could he be? — and he has a new coach, Jay Gruden, and a new offense to learn. But the early returns are promising. That is, if you’re not the kind who reads a lot of symbolism into shoes and socks.

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The Top 10 in 2014 vs. the Top 10 in 1964

It’s always educational to go back in time and see where the NFL was, say, 50 years ago and how it compares to today. So I decided to find out who the career leaders were in various offensive categories at the start of the 1964 season, just for kicks. What did it take to make the all-time Top 10 back then? Which players had fallen through the cracks of history? I learned plenty, I must say. Why don’t we begin with the running backs (since they were so much bigger a deal in the ’60s)?

[table]

Most rushing yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

9\,322  Jim Brown,18\,355  Emmitt Smith

8\,378  Joe Perry,16\,726  Walter Payton

5\,860  Steve Van Buren,15\,269  Barry Sanders

5\,599  Jim Taylor,14\,101  Curtis Martin

5\,534  Rick Casares,13\,684  LaDainian Tomlinson

5\,518  John Henry Johnson,13\,662  Jerome Bettis

5\,233  Hugh McElhenny,13\,259  Eric Dickerson

4\,565  Ollie Matson,12\,739  Tony Dorsett

4\,428  Alex Webster,12\,312  Jim Brown

4\,315  J.D. Smith,12\,279  Marshall Faulk

[/table]

Think about it: To be one of the Top 10 rushers in NFL history half a century ago, all you needed was 4,315 yards. Adrian Peterson surpassed that by the end of his third season (4,484). Eric Dickerson nearly got there in his second (3,913). By current standards, it’s not that much yardage. (Consider: Among active backs, the Colts’ Ahmad Bradshaw is closest to Smith’s total with 4,418. That ranks him 160th all time.)

But it was a significant amount of yardage in 1964, the league’s 45th year. Careers were shorter. Seasons were shorter. Only the rare player (e.g. Brown) put up numbers that had much longevity.

Note, too: Three backs on the ’64 list — the Bears’ Casares, the Giants’ Webster and the 49ers’ Smith — aren’t in the Hall of Fame and never will be. Yet there’s a good chance every back on the ’14 list will make it. The only ones who haven’t been voted in, after all, are Bettis and Tomlinson. But LT is a lock once he’s eligible, and Bettis has been a finalist the last four years and figures to get his ticket punched eventually.

And understandably so, I suppose. The threshold for breaking into the Top 10 — in all offensive departments — is so much higher these days. You not only have to play longer, you usually have to be fairly productive in your 30s, which for a running back is far from guaranteed. Payton, hard as it is to believe, rushed for more yards after his 30th birthday (6,522) than Van Buren did in his entire career (5,860). And Steve was the all-time leader for nearly a decade.

Finally, three of the Top 7 rushers 50 years ago — Perry (2nd), Johnson (6th) and McElhenny (7th) –actually played together for three seasons in San Francisco (1954-56), though they often weren’t healthy at the same time. “The Million-Dollar Backfield,” they were called (the fourth Hall of Fame member being quarterback Y.A. Tittle). John Henry, ever the joker, liked to tell people: “I’m still lookin’ for the million.”

On to the receivers:

[table]

Most receiving yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

8\,459  Billy Howton,22\,895  Jerry Rice

7\,991  Don Hutson,15\,934  Terrell Owens

6\,920  Raymond Berry,15\,292  Randy Moss

6\,299  Crazylegs Hirsch,15\,208  Isaac Bruce

5\,902  Billy Wilson,15\,127  Tony Gonzalez

5\,619  Pete Pihos,14\,934  Tim Brown

5\,594  Del Shofner,14\,580  Marvin Harrison

5\,508  Ray Renfro,14\,004  James Lofton

5\,499  Tommy McDonald,13\,899  Cris Carter

5\,476  Max McGee,13\,777  Henry Ellard

[/table]

That’s right, McGee, Paul Hornung’s old drinking buddy on the Packers, was No. 10 in receiving yards as the ’64 season got underway. I wasn’t prepared for that (though I knew he was a pretty good wideout). Here is he is (fuzzily) scoring the first points in Super Bowl history by making a one-handed touchdown catch:

Amazingly, Howton, who tops the list — and was McGee’s teammate in Green Bay for a while — isn’t in the Hall. I’ve always thought he belongs, even though he played on a series of losing clubs. But that’s a subject for another post.

Also excluded from Canton, besides McGee, are the 49ers’ Wilson, the Giants’ Shofner and the Browns’ Renfro. In other words, half of the Top 10 in receiving yards half a century ago haven’t been enshrined. Does that seem like a lot to you?

I doubt people will be saying that about the current Top 10 50 years from now. Rice and Lofton already have their gold jackets, and most of the others have strong arguments.

Speaking of Rice, that 22,895 figure never ceases to astound, does it? It’s almost as many as the Top 3 receivers combined on the ’64 list (23,370).

Something else that shouldn’t be overlooked: a tight end (Tony Gonzalez) has infiltrated the Top 10 (at No. 5) — and he won’t be the last. The position has become too important to the passing game.

Lastly — because I wanted to keep you in suspense — the quarterbacks:

[table]

Most passing yards at the start of the 1964 season,At the start of 2014

28\,339  Y.A. Tittle,71\,838  Brett Favre

26\,768  Bobby Layne,64\,964  Peyton Manning

23\,611  Norm Van Brocklin,61\,361  Dan Marino

21\,886  Sammy Baugh,51\,475  John Elway

21\,491  Johnny Unitas,51\,081  Drew Brees

19\,488  Charlie Conerly,49\,325  Warren Moon

17\,654  Tobin Rote,49\,149  Tom Brady

17\,492  George Blanda,47\,003  Fran Tarkenton

16\,303  Billy Wade,46\,233  Vinny Testaverde

14\,686  Sid Luckman,44\,611  Drew Bledsoe

[/table]

Both groups are well represented in the Hall. Seven from ’64 are in, including the Top 5, and the Top 8 from ’14 are destined to join them. And get this: The three ’64 guys who haven’t been ushered into Canton — Conerly (’56 Giants), Rote (’57 Lions, plus the ’63 Chargers in the AFL) and Wade (’63 Bears) — all quarterbacked teams to titles. Quite an accomplished bunch.

For those wondering where Otto Graham is, he did indeed rack up 23,584 passing yards, but 10,085 of them came in the rival All-America Conference. That left him 12th, for the NFL’s purposes, going into the ’64 season (with 13,499). It’s a bit unfair — and also affects some of his teammates (running back Marion Motley, receivers Dante Lavelli and Mac Speedie) — but what are ya gonna do?

At any rate, it takes a lot of yards to crack any of these Top 10s nowadays. You’d better pack a lunch — and maybe dinner and a midnight snack, too.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Quarterbacks who get it done in Week 1

This is a modified version of: If your life hinged on the outcome of one football game, who would you want as your quarterback?

Let’s word it this way: If you absolutely had to win an NFL season opener — or be sentenced to a lifetime of leaf raking with a salad fork — your QB (post-1960 only) would be . . .?

Joe Montana, you say? Surprisingly, he was only 7-5 in opening-day starts (and just 5-5 with the Niners). Johnny Unitas? A little better, but still “only” 9-5 (if you fudge a bit and count his first few years with the Colts in the ’50s). Peyton Manning? Getting warmer at 11-4, though his winning percentage (.733) isn’t as good as — gulp — Lynn Dickey’s (7-2, .778) or Craig Morton’s (6-2, .750).

OK, I’m going to stop torturing you. Here are the top QBs in terms of winning percentage (minimum: 6 starts):

BEST WEEK 1 RECORDS FOR STARTING QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback, Team(s),W-L,Pct

1969-79,Roger Staubach,Cowboys,9-0,1.000

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1,.917

2002-13,Michael Vick,Falcons\, Eagles,6-1,.857

2007-13,Jay Cutler,Broncos\, Bears,6-1,.857

1963-68,Frank Ryan,Browns, 5-1,.833

2008-13,Joe Flacco,Ravens,5-1,.833

[/table]

Quite a group, isn’t it? You’ve got a guy who served four years in the Navy, including a stint in Vietnam, before starting his NFL career (Staubach). You’ve got a guy who’s married to a supermodel (Brady). You’ve got a guy who did time in prison for running a dogfighting operation. And you’ve got a guy who titled his doctoral thesis in math: “Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc” (Ryan).

(The latter will always get a laugh at parties, by the way. Just say, preferably when one of your friends has a mouthful, “I’ll take ‘Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc’ for $1,000, Alex.”)

Anyway, would have expected to see Vick on this list? Or Cutler, for that matter? (Flacco I had a vague awareness of just because he plays up the road.) Some other factoids that might interest you:

● Dan Marino (10-6, .625) didn’t make the cut, but he did win his last eight openers (1992-99). Heck of a streak. Dan Fouts (9-3, .750) didn’t make the cut, either, but he won nine of 10 openers in one stretch (1976-86, an injury keeping him out in ’77). Another terrific streak.

● Brady has won his last 10 (2004-13), though he made only a cameo appearance in the ’08 game, when he blew out his knee against the Chiefs.

● Peyton Manning is almost as good in openers as his father Archie was bad (2-9, .182). Of course, his dad got stuck playing for the Saints in their Paper Bag Days. Brother Eli, meanwhile, is 4-5 Screen Shot 2014-09-04 at 9.32.43 AM(.444).

● If you go by passer rating, the Top 5 in Week 1 starts (minimum: 6) are Tony Romo (110.2), Aaron Rodgers (101.4), Brady (100.1), Fouts (98.5) and Drew Brees (96.9), with Peyton (96.4) and Philip Rivers (96) close behind.

● Wins by Brady (vs. Miami) and Manning (vs. Indianapolis) on Sunday would give each of them 12 opening-game victories, as many as any QB has had in the modern era. That list currently looks like this:

MOST WINNING STARTS IN WEEK 1 BY A QUARTERBACK SINCE 1960

[table]

Span,Quarterback,Team (s),W-L-T,Pct

1983-98,John Elway,Broncos,12-4-0,.750

1992-10,Brett Favre,Packers\, Jets\, Vikings,12-6-0,.667

1961-78,Fran Tarkenton,Vikings\, Giants,11-6-1,.639

1998-13,Peyton Manning,Colts\, Broncos,11-4-0,.733

2002-13,Tom Brady,Patriots,11-1-0,.917

[/table]

So who did you choose?

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Follicles on parade

Just saw this headline on Facebook:

Man dying of heart attack ‘refused defibrillator by air stewardess because of his HAIRY CHEST’

So naturally, I had to post this. It’s Jets legend Joe Namath and future Charlie’s Angel Farrah Fawcett at the shooting of a Noxema commercial in the ’70s.

Screen Shot 2014-08-31 at 1.25.31 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For your additional enjoyment, here’s the commercial:

 

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