Tag Archives: Redskins

“Statistics are for losers”: an exercise in etymology

Earlier this week, I began a post about 400-yard passing games with the words, “Whoever coined the phrase ‘statistics are for losers’ . . . .” Naturally, this got me wondering: Who did coin the phrase, anyway? Could I possibly trace it back to its origin?

Search engines were invented for tasks like this. Alas, I didn’t turn up anything conclusive — just as I didn’t, a while back, when I researched “A tie is like kissing your sister.” If only there were a registrar for these pithy statements, somebody who could go to a file drawer, pull out a card and say, “Ah, yes. Amos Alonzo Stagg first said that after the University of Chicago’s game against Wabash in 1905.”

Anyway, I did come across a few things worth passing along. For starters, there’s Steve Spurrier’s updated version, uttered in 1998 when he was coaching at Florida:

Steve Spurrier

Steve Spurrier

“Statistics are for losers and assistant coaches. Head coaches worry about wins and losses.” 

(I’m not sure how assistant coaches like being lumped in with losers, but that’s The Ball Coach for you. He always shoots from the lip, collateral damage be damned.)

Three decades further back, in 1966, we have Jets coach Weeb Ewbank telling Arthur Daley of The New York Times after a loss to the Bills, “Statistics are for losers. Of course, it was encouraging that we could come back with 14 quick points in less than a minute during the last quarter. But getting in front early is much better than having to come from behind.”

That’s kind of the essence of Loser Statistics, isn’t it? The futile comeback that pads a team’s or player’s numbers and makes it look like they had a better day than they actually did.

Just a month earlier, the other pro coach in town, the Giants’ Allie Sherman, was quoted as saying, “Statistics are for losers. It’s the score that counts.”

So it’s clear that, by the mid-’60s, football folk were spouting the aphorism fairly regularly.

Four years before that, in 1962, The Associated Press reported: “The Cardinals outgained the 49ers, 314-215, [in a 24-17 defeat] but ‘statistics are for losers,’ [coach Wally] Lemm said.”

And two years before that, in 1960, columnist Ed Hayes of the Blytheville Courier-News in Arkansas wrote: “General Bob Neyland [the longtime University of Tennessee coach] . . . once cracked, ‘Statistics are for losers.’”

Unfortunately, when this “once” might have been is a mystery, though we do know Neyland was head coach of the Vols from 1926 to ’52. Still, there’s a good chance he might have heard it from somebody else. Coaches, after all, are notorious for stealing anything that isn’t nailed down — plays, drills, even handy sayings.

In the early days, when everything was up for grabs, the legendary Pop Warner tried to argue that statistics aren’t for losers. With college football plagued by low-scoring games in 1932,

Pop Warner

Pop Warner

Warner, then at Stanford, proposed that an additional point be awarded for each first down. His reasoning:

“The public likes a free-scoring game. Baseball men recognized this when they began to use a livelier ball. The change I suggest for football would make the games less common and would make the best team more likely to win. It would provide many more thrills — look at the cheers that go up now when the stakes are moved forward.

“The whole idea of the game would be to advance the ball, and by scoring a point for each first down it would make it advisable to take more chances on third and fourth downs, instead of always punting. I have advocated this change before, and some have said, ‘Oh yes, Warner wants to score first downs because he gains all his ground in the middle of the field,’ but I have no selfish motive in advocating this change. I firmly believe it would help the game, and we all know the game needs help right now.

“It would be advisable to except first downs resulting from a penalty of more than five yards and not count a first down made inside the opponent’s five-yard line, if a touchdown was scored on the next series of downs. This would prevent purposely downing the ball, say, six inches from the goal line on a long run.”

Pop sure had done some Deep Thinking about it, hadn’t he? But his proposal never gained much traction with the rules committee — probably because the vast majority of coaches were convinced, even if they hadn’t articulated it yet, that statistics really are for losers.

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The best and worst of kicking

On one side Sunday, you had the Bills’ Dan Carpenter booming a 58-yard field goal with four seconds left to give his team a come-from-behind 17-14 victory. On the other, you had the Lions’ Alex Henery missing all three of his boots — none shorter than 44 yards — and losing his job because of it.

That, friends, is all you need to know about the kicking profession in the 2000s. The NFL has kickers these days capable of knocking through a game-winner from 58 yards or longer, if need be. But the bar for them has been raised so high that missing more than a handful of boots a season — never mind three in an afternoon — is likely to put them on the unemployment line. They’re the victims of their own near-perfection.

Granted, Henery has had a rough go of it this year. In his two games for Detroit, he was 1 for 5 on field goal tries, a success rate that might have raised eyebrows even in the ’50s. But he also has a track record, and it’s pretty good. In his three previous NFL seasons, all with the Eagles, he converted 86 percent of his attempts. But now he’s gone because, well, that’s just the way it is in pro football.

As Lions coach Jim Caldwell put it: “There’s somebody out there for us that’ll do the job for us. We just got to see if we can track him down quickly.”

Translation: No biggie. We’ll just hold a tryout, open up another box of 86-percent kickers and see who performs best. (It turned out to be Matt Prater, the former Bronco.)

NFL soccer-stylers have become so accurate, even from great distances, that last year they were successful on 86.5 percent of their field goal tries (which made Henery, at 82.1, below average). There even have been kickers, two of them, who have gone through an entire season without missing. And, of course, Tom Dempsey’s 63-yarder, which had stood as the record since 1970, was finally topped  by Prater, who booted a 64-yarder in Denver’s thin air last December.

The field goal is becoming almost as automatic as the extra point. So it’s easy to forget, with all these footballs tumbling through the uprights, that, at late as the ’60s, it was a very hit-or-miss proposition. And earlier than that, it was more miss than hit.

Let’s pay a visit to 1939 for a moment, to a game between the Redskins and Pittsburgh Pirates (they weren’t the Steelers yet). The Redskins won easily, 44-14, but they also missed five PATs. The Associated Press’ account read like this:

“Jim German ran off right tackle to a touchdown. Washington missed the kick. . . . [Andy] Farkas knifed through for the score. His kick was blocked by Sam Boyd. . . . Frank Filchock stood in the end zone, passed to Farkas on the 4-yard stripe, and Andy galloped 96 yards for a touchdown — a total gain of 99 yards. Turk Edwards’ kick was not good. . . . [Dick] Todd . . . raced 60 yards for another touchdown. Bob Masterson’s kick was not good. . . . Ed Justice went around left end . . . for the final Redskin[s] touchdown. [Bo] Russell missed the kick.”

This is obviously an extreme example of what I’m talking about. The Redskins were so far ahead that day that they started goofing around and letting everybody kick. (Russell and Masterson were their main guys.) But it just shows how casual teams could be about kicking and how inexact a science it was — even though PATs were 10 yards shorter because the goal posts were on the goal line.

Pittsburgh’s kicker, Armand Niccolai, was one of the better ones in the league — so good that, after he retired following the 1941 season, the team talked him into coming back for one more year. Since he’d already taken a coaching and teaching job at a local high school and couldn’t attend the Steelers’ practices, he just showed up for the games.

“He will not even don pads,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported, “but will be used exclusively as a placekicker.”

No practices and no pads! What a sweet deal. Alas, he made just 2 of 14 field-goal attempts that year and decided, wisely, to retire for good.

Niccolai’s final season is one of the worst of all time by a kicker. His competition:

WORST SEASONS BY KICKERS (10 OR MORE FGA)

Year Kicker, Team Made Att %
1965 Bob Timberlake, Giants      1 15 6.7
1955 Art Michalik, Steelers      1 12 8.3
1939 Clarke Hinkle, Packers      1 10 10
1963 Bob Jencks, Bears      1 10 10
1952 Joe Geri, Cardinals      2 18 11.1
1942 Armand Niccolai, Steelers      2 14 14.3
1963 Jack  Spikes, Chiefs      2 13 15.4
1950 Ted Fritsch, Packers      3 17 17.6

All of them, by the way, kicked in the Old Style, with their toes rather than their instep. By the ’70s, though, almost every club had a soccer-styler, and success rates started going up . . . and up . . . and up. It’s just a more reliable way to boot the ball.

Still, while you’re snickering at these percentages, keep in mind: Many of these guys played another position — back when rosters were smaller — in addition to handling the kicking. That certainly raised the margin for error. (Sonny Jurgensen once told me he never had receiver Bobby Walston run a deep route on third down when the Eagles were in field goal position because he didn’t want Walston to be tired if he was needed to kick.)

Just out of curiosity, I thought I’d find out which kickers have missed the most kicks — field goals or extra points — in a season. There are some interesting names on it, including two Hall of Famers.

MOST MISSED KICKS IN A SEASON (FG AND PAT)

Year Kicker, Team FG PAT Total
1964 Paul Hornung*, Packers 12-38 41-43 28
1961 John Aveni, Redskins 5-28 21-23 25
1976 Jan Stenerud*, Chiefs 21-38 27-33 23
1963 Lou Michaels, Steelers 21-41 32-35 23
1967 Bruce Gossett, Rams 20-43 48-48 23
1969 Tom Dempsey, Saints 22-41 33-35 21
1969 Roy Gerela, Oilers (AFL) 19-40 29-29 21
1969 Gino Cappelletti, Patriots (AFL) 14-34 26-27 21
1966 Bruce Gossett, Rams 28-49 29-29 21
1963 Jerry Kramer, Packers 16-34 43-46 21
1963 Tommy Davis,49ers 10-31 24-24 21
1960 Larry Barnes, Raiders (AFL) 6-25 37-39 21

*Hall of Famer

If you’ve ever wondered why Vince Lombardi’s Packers didn’t win the title in 1963 and ’64 — after going back to back in ’61 and ’62 (and winning three more from 1965 to ’67) — you can start with kicking. Kramer and Hornung missed 44 field goal tries in those seasons, and the Golden Boy’s 26 misses in ’64 are an NFL record that probably will last forever. After serving a one-year suspension in ’63 for betting on games, Paul simply lost it as a kicker.

It’s also worth noting that the kicker who has missed the most field goal attempts in a game since 1960 — the Cardinals’ Jim Bakken, six, vs. the Falcons in ’66 — turned around the next season and booted seven in a game, a mark that wasn’t broken for 40 years.

That’s what was so ironic about the Bills-Lions game. Henery got fired for going 0 for 3, right? Guess who the last kicker to have an 0-for-4 day was.

Carpenter, Buffalo’s hero, in 2010.

So maybe this isn’t the last we’ve heard of Alex Henery.

Armand Niccolai clothing ad

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The latest Running Back from Nowhere

Once again Sunday, NFL fans watched slack-jawed as another Mystery Running Back darted and dashed all over the field. This time it was Branden Oliver, the Chargers’ undrafted rookie, who amazed the masses, racking up 114 yards rushing, 68 receiving and one touchdown — in just his third game as a pro — as San Diego routed the Jets 31-0.

This is becoming almost an annual event now, pro football’s version of Punxsutawney Phil emerging from his hole to forecast the weather. Oliver’s emergence, of course, just reminds everybody that scouting is a woefully inexact science, especially when it comes to running backs.

We know this because good ones go unclaimed in the draft all the time. Indeed, there have been 17 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the 2000s by backs who weren’t selected. Practically every year, it seems, an overlooked runner makes personnel departments cringe by leading the NFL in rushing, yards from scrimmage, touchdowns or otherwise distinguishing himself. Check out this list:

THE 9 UNDRAFTED BACKS IN THE 2000S WHO HAVE BEEN 1,000-YARD RUSHERS

Running back, Team Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Arian Foster, Texans 2010 327 1,616 4.9 16
Priest Holmes, Chiefs 2002 313 1,615 5.2 21
Willie Parker, Steelers 2006 337 1,494 4.3 13
Ryan Grant, Packers 2009 282 1,253 4.4 11
James Allen, Bears 2000 290 1,120 3.9 2
Dominic Rhodes, Colts 2001 233 1,104 4.7 9
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals 2012 278 1,094 3.9 6
Fred Jackson, Bills 2009 237 1,062 4.5 2
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs 2010 201 1,007 5.0 6

Note: League leaders in bold face. Foster (2,220) and Holmes (2,287) also led the league in yards from scrimmage.

It’s not just these guys, either. It’s all the other guys, the ones who were drafted as afterthoughts in the late rounds. There are plenty of those, too. Such as:

TOP LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS IN THE 2000S

Running back\ Team Round Best Year Att Yds Avg TD
Michael Turner, Falcons 5th 2008 376 1,699 4.5 17
Alfred Morris, Redskins 6th 2012 335 1,613 4.8 13
Mike Anderson, Broncos 6th 2000 297 1,487 5.0 15
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants 7th 2010 276 1,235 4.5 8
Chester Taylor, Vikings 6th 2006 303 1,216 4.0 6

Oliver, built along the lines of the Eagles’ Darren Sproles at 5-foot-7, 201 pounds, came out of the same University of Buffalo program that produced James Starks. Starks, you may recall, was one of the nicer stories of 2010. After being drafted in the sixth round by the Packers and spending most of the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, he pulled a Punxsutawney Phil in the playoffs and rushed for 315 yards to help Green Bay win the Super Bowl. It’s the third-highest rushing total by a rookie in the postseason since 1960.

There’s no telling what lies ahead for Oliver. Sunday could be the highlight of his career or it could lead to even better things. With Donald Brown now questionable with a concussion, Ryan Matthews (knee) still out and Danny Woodhead (broken fibula) on injured reserve, there’s plenty of opportunity for the rookie.

But if it is his one, brief, shining moment, it was an awfully good one. His 182 yards from scrimmage are the third most by a running back this season (and include a 50-yard reception).

But getting back to our previous subject — why are so many good backs drafted so low (or not at all)? — it’s interesting to compare the Top 5 rushers this season with the Top 5 passers in terms of what round they went in.

CURRENT TOP 5 RUSHERS

Yds Running Back, Team Round (Pick)
670 DeMarco Murray, Cowboys 3rd (71)
460 Le’Veon Bell, Steelers 2nd (48)
404 Arian Foster, Texans UFA
396 Rashad Jennings, Giants 7th (250)
365 Frank Gore, 49ers 3rd (65)

CURRENT TOP 5 IN PASSER RATING

Rating Quarterback, Team Round (Pick)
116.3 Philip Rivers, Chargers 1st (4)
114.8 Aaron Rodgers, Packers 1st (24)
112.9 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 3rd (75)
109.0 Peyton Manning, Broncos 1st (1)
100.3 Andy Dalton, Bengals 2nd (35)

Huge contrast, no? On the quarterback side, you’ve got three No. 1s (two of them very high), a near No. 1 and a No. 3. And on the running back side, you’ve got a second-rounder, two third-rounders, a seventh-rounder and an undrafted free agent.

You hear all the time that the hardest position evaluate is quarterback. Well, on the basis of this, running backs may be even harder to get a read on.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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The hazards of being a 100-catch receiver

Calvin Johnson is hurt. Again. It’s his ankle this time. Andre Johnson, I see, is also questionable this week with an ankle. And Wes Welker, of course, is a high hit away from another concussion, one that might end his career.

Yes, players get hurt in football. And yes, all these receivers have some mileage on them — a collective 31 seasons and 2,389 receptions. But there’s this to consider, too: The Lions’ Johnson caught 122 passes two years ago, tying him for third most all time, and the Texans’ Johnson and Broncos’ Welker each have had five 100-catch seasons, as many as any receiver in NFL history. We’re talking high-volume wideouts. Really high-volume wideouts.

There’s a price you pay when you’re that kind of player, when you put yourself in harm’s way that often. The receivers of yesteryear, with the exception of a few, weren’t nearly as exposed. Seasons were shorter, for one thing, and the running game was much more prominent. In 1960, when the AFL came into being and began changing the equation with its wide-open play, the record for receptions in a season was 84, by Rams Hall of Famer Tom Fears. At that point, only 11 NFL receivers (a total of 16 times) had caught as many as 60 passes in a season. Sixty! Now we have wideouts who are doubling that figure — and then some.

Still, it’s just in the last 20 years that the 100-reception season has become commonplace. Even when the schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978, only one receiver in the next decade had 100 grabs: the Redskins’ Art Monk in ’84 (a record 106). But then there were eight 100-catch guys in ’95, led by the Lions’ Herman Moore with 123 (another record), and that was the tipping point. Last year, five wideouts had 100 or more; the year before, six did. Yawn.

SEASONS WITH THE MOST 100-CATCH RECEIVERS*

Year No.
1995 8
2012 6
2009 6
2007 6
2001 6
2013 5
2002 5

*tight ends included

(Note: Through 1994, there were 10 100-catch seasons in all of NFL-AFL history.)

The receivers aren’t yawning, though. They’re too busy picking themselves off the ground, checking to make sure they aren’t missing any body parts and telling the trainer how many fingers he’s holding up. Think about it: In Calvin Johnson’s 122-reception season, he was targeted 204 times. That means there were 82 other occasions, aside from his catches, when he had a chance to be hit. No wonder his knee was bothering him last year. He had more targets in 2012 than the Eagles’ LeSean McCoy had rushing attempts (200 in 12 games).

Speaking running backs, for the longest time coaches seemed to be conducting a laboratory experiment with them: How much can the human body endure? (See James Wilder’s 492-touch exercise in excess with the 1984 Bucs.) But in recent seasons they’ve stopped putting so much of the load on one back, opting instead for a by-committee approach. This might not be as good for the back’s numbers, but it’s probably better for his long-term health. McCoy’s 314 carries last year, for instance, were the fewest by a league leader since 1990 (and the second-fewest in a non-strike season since the advent of the 16-game schedule).

Further evidence: Only once in this decade has a back had as many as 350 rushing attempts in season (Arian Foster, 2012 Texans, 351). In the first four years of the previous decade, a back reached that level 10 times. And you can’t just attribute it to teams passing more, because the number of rushing attempts per team in 2000 (441.2, on average) was pretty comparable to last year (433.5).

Maybe it’s time for coaches to come to the same conclusion about receivers: that perhaps there are limits, that it might not be the greatest idea for a wideout — many of whom aren’t exactly the biggest players on the field — to catch as many passes as some of today’s wideouts are catching. Never mind whether or not it might shorten a guy’s career. How about the possibility it might shorten his life — or at the very least, affect the quality of his life in the not-too-distant future?

Let’s face it, pro football is a demolition derby — vroom, vroom, crash, crash. And teams have always looked at players as very disposable commodities. When one breaks, you move on to the next name on the depth chart. But maybe, with a little restraint, they don’t have to break quite so often.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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More than you ever wanted to know about coaching hires

Now that Dennis Allen has been asked to turn in his key fob in Oakland, after coaching the Raiders for a mere 36 games (28 of them losses), it might be a good time to talk about NFL coaching hires. It’s a fertile area for study, with plenty of data to analyze, yet little is ever written about it. Coaches come and coaches go — sometimes at a head-spinning rate — and everybody seems fine with that. Maybe it’s because they can’t score points in Fantasy Football.

Take this year’s seven new hires. At the quarter pole of Season 1, this is where they stand:

Coach,Team W-L
Jim Caldwell, Lions 3-1
Bill O’Brien, Texans 3-1
Mike Zimmer, Vikings 2-2
Mike Pettine, Browns 1-2
Jay Gruden, Redskins 1-3
Lovie Smith, Bucs 1-3
Ken Whisenhunt, Titans 1-3
Total 12-15

It’s just a snapshot, sure, but did anybody have much of a feel going into the season about which of these coaches would be successful right out of the chute and which wouldn’t? Along those same lines, would anyone wager much money on which of them — if any — will still be in their jobs, say, five years from now?

Obviously, no coach is an island. Winning takes a village, from the owner and general manager on down. Luck also factors in — especially when you get to draft Oliver Luck with the first pick of the draft instead of JaMarcus Russell or Tim Couch. Even so, there’s much about the selection of an NFL coach that’s just plain mysterious. Here’s why:

There’s no cone drill for a would-be coach to run, no Wonderlic test to take. He doesn’t get asked to jump as high as he can, hoist a barbell until his biceps bark or do anything particularly measurable — except maybe eat a 24-ounce porterhouse at Morton’s during the interview.

Think about it: Teams will put their first-round picks under a magnifying glass, looking for flaws with a jeweler’s scrutiny. The draft has become a national obsession fed by Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and scores of other gurus, amateur and professional. Whose stock is rising? Whose is falling? Should my team trade up? Trade down? Stockpile picks for next year, when talent pool is deeper? Fans take this stuff very seriously. Or to put it another way, you mock their mock draft at your peril.

None of that hysteria — or thoroughness, it would seem — surrounds the hiring of coaches. The Texans (O’Brien) and Bucs (Smith) had their men by Jan. 2, four days after the regular season ended. The other five openings were filled in the next three weeks (and it only took that long because the Browns dawdled before deciding on Pettine). Granted, there’s a practicality to settling on a coach as soon as possible: much work needs to be done. But it makes you wonder how much Deep Thinking is involved in the process, especially since it’s arguably the most crucial decision a club will make.

So why don’t we look at these hires a little more closely, not just the ones this year but all the hires in the 2000s. It gives us a nice-sized sample — 103 in all (interim coaches not included) — from which to spot patterns, draw conclusions and just bat around a subject that, to me, is strangely underexplored. Some of results, no doubt, will surprise you. Such as:

● 26 of the 103 coaches (25.2%) had a quarterback in their first season who either (a.) had started in the Super Bowl or (b.) would start in the Super Bowl. Seems like a lot, doesn’t it? (Of course, part of reason is that we have to include guys like Rex Grossman, Zimmer’s No. 3 in Cleveland, who started in the Super Bowl for the Bears seven seasons ago and, at this stage, is basically on emergency standby. Still, 26 past or future Super Bowl QBs — who would have guessed? And the number can only go up, depending on how some of these young guns (e.g. Luck, Robert Griffin III, Teddy Bridgewater, even Matthew Stafford, who’s still only 26) develop.

● The same number, 26 (25.2%), had a Top 3 draft pick their first year, and 12 (11.7 percent) had the first overall pick (as O’Brien and the Texans did this year).

● Fewer and fewer Super Bowl coaches are former NFL (or AFL) players. Twenty-three of the first 24 Super Bowls featured at least one coach who was an ex-player. The last 24 Super Bowls have been much different; only seven had a coach who had played in the league (not counting the Saints’ Sean Payton, whose NFL “career” consists of three games as a replacement during the 1987 strike).

● Average win total of first-year coaches: 7.1. (Read it and weep. Or perhaps not.)

● 61 (64.2 percent) of them, though, improved the team’s record that first season. You can see, then, why owners aren’t shy about firing coaches, even after one year. They usually get an immediate bump — in the short term, anyway.

OK, that’s enough for now. More — much more — as we go along.

Who gets hired?

When I started crunching the numbers, I had some preconceived notions. For one thing, I figured more offensive than defensive coaches would be getting jobs because the game is so tilted toward the offense. My reasoning: Better to have a head guy who knows quarterbacks and can take advantage of all the rules that favor that side of the ball. After all, defense can be such a fruitless proposition nowadays (though a handful of teams, the champion Seahawks first and foremost, play it well).

Anyway, I was wrong. For the 103 coaches hired since 2000, the offense/defense split is virtually identical: 52/51. This season, before the Allen firing, it was dead even: 16 O, 16 D.

I also thought recycled coaches would be more successful than first-timers. Just a hunch; I didn’t have anything concrete to base it on. (Kickers, it seems, are like that, too.) This time my suspicion was (mostly) right. Here’s how it breaks down:

First-time coaches: 66 (not counting the 2014 hires).

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 11 (16.7%), 4 winners (6.1%), 4-8 record (.333).

● Made it to the conference title game: 15 (22.7%), 11 winners (16.7%), 12-13 record (.480).

● Made the playoffs: 32 (48.5%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 48 (16.7%). This number might end up higher because there are still 22 active first-time coaches, several of whom — including Super Bowl winners Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens), Sean Payton (Saints) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) — have been quite successful. But it still takes your breath away.

● Finished at .500 or below: 40 of 48 (83.3%).

Recycled coaches: 30 (again, not counting the 2014 hires).

● Super Bowl: 6 (20%), 5 winners (16.7%), 8-3 record (.727).

● Conference title game: 7 (23.3%), 6 winners (20%), 11-5 record (.688).

● Playoffs: 16 (53.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 8 of 24 (33.3%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 16 of 24 (66.7%) Note: Nine recycled coaches are still active.

Admittedly, one coach — e.g. the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who has been to five Super Bowls and won three — can skew things. But even if you eliminated Belichick, you’d still have as many retreads as first-timers winning rings (4) — and a far higher percentage of them (13.3% to 6.1%).

You’re hired to get fired

There’s a reason people are always saying that, and it’s not just because it rhymes. Look at these figures:

● 30 of 66 first-time coaches (45.4%) — Allen being the latest — were gone within three years. (That includes four who bailed for college jobs and another who resigned rather than shuffle his staff.)

● 12 of 30 recycled coaches (46.7%) also lasted three seasons or less.

● And these percentages likely will increase depending on how the last three coaching classes, who haven’t reached the three-year threshold yet, fare.

Not For Long League, indeed.

Offensive coaches vs. defensive coaches

Offensive (48*):

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 9 (18.8%), 4 winners (8.3%), 5-5 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 10 (20.8%), 9 winners (18.8%), 10-5 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 22 (45.8%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 7 of 36 (19.4%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 29 of 36 (80.6%).

Defensive (48*):

● Super Bowl: 8 (16.7%), 5 winners (10.4%), 8-5 record (.615).

● Conference title game: 12 (25%), 8 winners (16.7%), 13-13 record (.500).

● Playoffs: 26 (54.2%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 9 of 35 (25.7%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 26 of 35 (74.3%).

*Not counting 2014 hires.

Again, there’s a Belichick Factor here, but even without him the group has 18 conference title game berths, three more than the offensive bunch. That’s because Tony Dungy (Colts), John Fox (Panthers/Broncos), Lovie Smith (Bears), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Rex Ryan (Jets) all went — or have gone — to two or more.

Note, too, that a significantly higher percentage of defensive coaches have made the playoffs (54.2 to 45.8).

In terms of longevity, here’s the comparison:

● 24 of 36 offensive coaches (66.7%) were fired by the end of their third season.

● 18 of 36 defensive coaches (50%) also never saw Year 4.

Note: 12 offensive and 12 defensive coaches are still on the job.

In-house hires

The sample sizes start to get smaller now. Just 18 coaches fall into this category, eight of whom started with the “interim” title before being given the job outright. (The only current one is the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett.) The breakdown:

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 3 of 18 (16.7%), 0 winners (0%), 0-3 record (.000).

● Made it to the conference title game 3 of 18 (16.7%), 3 winners (16.7%), 3-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 6 of 18 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 4 of 17 (23.5 percent). (Garrett is excluded because he’s still coaching.)

● Finished at .500 or below: 13 of 17 (76.5 percent).

● Lasted three seasons or less: 12 of 18 (66.7%).

Coaches who came from the college ranks

There have been 12 of these, an even smaller group.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 1 winner (8.3%), 1-1 record (.500).

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 12 (16.7%), 2 winners (16.7%), 2-2 record (.500).

● Made the playoffs: 4 of 12 (33.3%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 0 of 7 (0%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 7 of 7 (100 percent).

Note: 5 are still active, including the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll, the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh and the Eagles’ Chip Kelly.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 6 of 9 (66.7%). (Three of the active coaches are in their first or second year.)

Unemployed/retired coaches

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000). (Take a bow, Tom Coughlin.)

● Made it to the conference title game: 1 of 10 (10%), 1 winner (10%), 2-0 record (1.000).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 10 (50%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 7 (28.6%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

Note: 3 are still on the sideline — the Giants’ Coughlin, the Rams’ Jeff Fisher and the Bucs’ Lovie Smith.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 8 (37.5%).

Coaches just fired by another team

This is the smallest bunch of all. I’m talking about guys who were hired immediately after losing a head job somewhere else.

● Made it to the Super Bowl: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 1 winner (14.3%), 1-1 record (.500). Any guesses who the two coaches are? Answer: Tony Dungy, who won with the Colts after being fired by the Bucs, and John Fox, who lost with the Broncos after being canned by the Panthers.

● Made it to the conference title game: 2 of 7 (28.6%), 2 winners (28.6%), 2-1 record (.667).

● Made the playoffs: 5 of 7 (71.4%).

● Finished the job with a winning record: 2 of 5 (40%).

● Finished at .500 or below: 3 of 5 (60%).

Note: Fox and the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, cast off by the Eagles, are still gainfully employed.

● Lasted three seasons or less: 3 of 6 (50%). (Reid is in only his second season in Kansas City.)

Better, worse or the same?

How have coaches done in their first year, compared to the team’s previous season?

● Better record: 61 of 95 (64.2%).

● Same record: 6 of 95 (6.3%).

● Worse record: 28 of 95 (29.5%).

(Dom Capers’ first season with the Texans in 2002 is excluded because it was an expansion team.)

● Missed the playoffs: 69 of 96 (71.9%).

● Went to the playoffs: 27 of 96 (28.1%).

● Took team to the playoffs after it had missed them the season before: 20 of 95 (21.1%).

● Missed the playoffs after the team had gone the season before: 2 of 95 (2.1%).

(Again, Capers was excluded from the last two because the ’02 Texans didn’t have a “season before.”)

● Winning record: 31 of 96 (32.3%).

Of those 31, 25 went to the playoffs, two went with .500 (John Fox/2011 Broncos) or below (Pete Carroll/2010 Seahawks, 7-9) records and six missed them.

● .500 record: 13 of 96 (13.5%). So 44 of 96 (45.8%) finished .500 or better. (And Jeff Fisher just missed with the 2012 Rams at 7-8-1.)

What kind of draft situation do new coaches walk into?

● First overall pick: 12 of 103 (11.7%).

● Top 3 pick: 26 of 103 (25.2%).

● Top 5 pick: 38 of 103 (36.9%).

● Top 10 pick: 61 of 103 (59.2%).

● No first-round pick: 10 of 103 (9.7%).

● Worst top pick of any of the 103 coaches hired since 2000: 95th (Allen, Raiders, 2012). Yup, that’s a real plum job Dennis landed. (Oakland used the third-rounder to select guard Tony Bergstrom, who has started a grand total of one game.)

Taking Over a Winning Team

None of this year’s new coaches was fortunate enough to inherit a winning club, but since 2000:

● 16 of 102 have (15.7%). (Capers excluded.)

● 10 of the 16 (62.5%) went to the playoffs.

● 5 reached the conference title game (Jon Gruden/2002 Bucs, Bill Callahan/’02 Raiders, Norv Turner/’07 Chargers, Jim Caldwell/’09 Colts, Rex Ryan/’09 Jets).

● 3 made it to the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs, Callahan/’02 Raiders, Caldwell/’09 Colts).

● 1 won the Super Bowl (Gruden/’02 Bucs).

● 4 other first-year coaches also went to the conference title game (Jim Mora Jr./’04 Falcons, Sean Payton/’06 Saints, John Harbaugh/’08 Ravens, Jim Harbaugh/’11 49ers). All of them lost. So 9 of 96 coaches (9.4%) went at least as far as the conference title game in their first season.

Moral No. 1: Changing coaches after a winning year isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world.

Moral No. 2: An almost 1-in-10 chance to get to the conference championship game — for a team that just brought in a new coach — sounds pretty good to me.

Some other factoids:

● Marc Trestman (2013 Bears) is the only coach since 2010 — 33 hires, counting the seven this year — to inherit a winning team. He took over a 10-6 club from Lovie Smith and went 8-8.

● Marty Schottenheimer is the last coach to be fired after a playoff season (14-2 with the ’06 Chargers). The two others this happened to: Tony Dungy (9-7 with the ’01 Bucs) and Steve Mariucci (10-6 — plus a first-round win) with the ’02 49ers.

● The luck of Herman Edwards: Both times he was hired as a head coach, he took over a team that had finished with a winning record the year before but had missed the playoffs — first with the ’01 Jets (9-7 in ’00 under Al Groh, who left for the University of Virginia), then with the ’06 Chiefs (10-6 in ’05 under Dick Vermeil, who retired once and for all). He went 10-6 in his first season with the Jets (and made the playoffs) and 9-7 in his first season with the Chiefs (and made the playoffs again). His team failed to advance both years.

● Vermeil retired twice after having a winning team — the ’99 Rams (successor: Mike Martz) and the ’05 Chiefs (Edwards). Jimmy Johnson (9-7, ’99 Dolphins), Bill Parcells (9-7, ’06 Cowboys), Joe Gibbs (9-7, ’07 Redskins) and Tony Dungy (12-4, ’08 Colts) also retired on a winning note. Five of those six teams made the playoffs (Vermeil’s ’05 Chiefs being the exception).

● Martz (2000 Rams) is the lone coach since 2000 to be handed a Super Bowl winner — or even a Super Bowl loser.

● 1993 was the last year at least half the coaches were former NFL/AFL players (14 of 28). The number has shrunk to six this season (again, not counting picket-line-crosser Payton). That’s 18.8 percent. In 1970, when the two leagues merged, it was 61.5 percent (16 of 26).

What do we make of this mountain of data? Whatever you will, I guess. But sifting through the numbers, an ideal candidate emerges (for me, anyway): a recycled coach from a defensive background who, in a perfect world, has just been fired. Or maybe he’s been out of the game for a season or two.

When you look at the seven new coaches, Lovie Smith comes closest to fitting the profile – the same Lovie, it pains me to add, who lost 56-14 to the Falcons two weeks ago. That’s why, no matter how teams go about them, these coaching searches are still a game of Blind Man’s Bluff. Somewhere out there, though, there has to be another Vince Lombardi, doesn’t there?

Postscript: Because I know you’re dying to find out, here are the 26 Super Bowl quarterbacks I referred to earlier.

First-year coaches who had Super Bowl QBs (past or future)

● Dave Campo, 2000 Cowboys — Troy Aikman (3-0 in the Super Bowl in the past).

● Mike Martz, 2000 Rams — Kurt Warner (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Bill Belichick, 2000 Patriots — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past).

● Mike Sherman, 2000 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past).

● Tony Dungy, 2000 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-2 in future).

● Marty Schottenheimer, 2002 Chargers — Drew Brees (1-0 in future).

● Bill Callahan, 2002 Raiders — Rich Gannon (0-1 in future — that season).

● Jon Gruden, 2002 Raiders — Brad Johnson (1-0 in future — that season).

● Tom Coughlin, 2004 Giants — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total). The Giants also drafted Eli Manning that year (2-0 in future).

● Norv Turner, 2004 Raiders — Kerry Collins (0-1 in past).

● Lovie Smith, 2004 Bears — Rex Grossman (0-1 in future).

● Mike Mularkey, 2004 Bills — Drew Bledsoe (0-1 in past)

● Romeo Crennel, 2005 Browns — Trent Dilfer (0-1 in past)

● Sean Payton, 2006 Saints — Drew Brees (1-0 in future)

● Brad Childress, 2006 Vikings — Brad Johnson (1-0 in past)

● Mike McCarthy, 2006 Packers — Brett Favre (1-1 in past). Plus, the Packers had drafted Aaron Rodgers (1-0 in future) the year before.

● Ken Whisenhunt, 2007 Cardinals — Kurt Warner (1-1 in past, 0-1 in future, 1-2 total).

● Mike Tomlin, 2007 Steelers — Ben Roethlisberger (1-0 in past, 1-1 in future, 2-1 total).

● John Harbaugh, 2008 Ravens — Joe Flacco (1-0 in future).

● Jim Caldwell, 2009 Colts — Peyton Manning (1-0 in past, 0-2 in future, 1-2 total).

● Jim Mora Jr., 2009 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Pete Carroll, 2010 Seahawks — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

● Mike Shanahan, 2010 Redskins — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past). The Redskins also had Rex Grossman (0-1 in past) on the roster.

● Leslie Frazier, 2011 Vikings — Donovan McNabb (0-1 in past).

● Mike Munchak, 2011 Titans — Matt Hasselbeck (0-1 in past).

To boil it down further:

— 18 of the 96 first-year coaches (2000-13) had a QB who had started in the Super Bowl in the past (18.8%).

— 10 had a QB who won the Super Bowl in the past (10.4%).

— 12 had a QB who would start in the Super Bowl in the future (12.5%).

— 6 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl in the future (6.3%).

— 5 had a QB who would win the Super Bowl with them as coach (5.2%).

— The 5 coaches who had QBs with a Super Bowl in their past and future: Martz ’00 (Warner), Coughlin ’04 (Warner), Whisenhunt ’07 (Warner), Tomlin ’07 (Roethlisberger), Caldwell ’09 (P. Manning).

● The 3 coaches who had two past and/or future Super Bowl QBs on the roster: Coughlin ’04 (Warner, E. Manning), McCarthy ’06 (Favre, Rodgers), Shanahan ’10 (McNabb, Grossman).

For a fair number of first-year coaches, in other words, the cupboard is far from bare.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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A Sunday of safeties

How often are safeties — the two-point kind — a major topic of conversation on an NFL Sunday (or even a minor topic of conversation)? They factored mightily, though, in two Week 5 games. In fact, both came in the fourth quarter and put teams in position for comeback wins, one of them in overtime. Safeties don’t get much more momentous than that.

The Browns scored the first with 11:02 left when linebacker Tank Carder swooped in and blocked a punt by the Titans’ Brett Kern out of the end zone. That narrowed the Tennessee lead to 28-15. Two Brian Hoyer-to-Travis Benjamin touchdown passes followed, giving the Cleveland — which had once trailed 28-3 — a stunning 29-28 victory. (As an added bonus, it was the biggest comeback in franchise history and the biggest road comeback in NFL/AFL history.)

And just think: It might never have happened without Carder’s safety.

A little later, at the Superdome, the Saints were down 31-26 to the Bucs with 6:44 to go in regulation when linebacker Junior Galette sacked Mike Glennon in the end zone to make it a three-point game. Shayne Graham booted a 44-yard field goal to send it to OT tied at 31, and New Orleans’ Khiry Robinson ended it by running 18 yards for the deciding score.

You’ve gotta admit, few things in football are more scintillating than a timely safety.

The only way the day could have been better is if one of the safeties had come in overtime. We’ve only had three of those, the most recent by the Dolphins’ Cameron Wake last season vs. the Bengals. Details here, courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame website.

Safeties are kind of like a two-dollar bill. They change the arithmetic of a game. Granted, the two-point conversion also changes the math, but not nearly as dramatically. The latter, after all, gives a club only one additional point; it would have kicked the PAT, which is virtually automatic, anyway. Also, after a successful two-point conversion, you have to kick the ball away (unless, of course, you want to risk an onside kick). After a safety, you get to retain possession. The other team has to kick the ball to you. (Plus, it puts That Crazy Look in the eyes of your defense, which should never be underestimated.)

Funny thing is, when the NFL was getting going in the ’20s, the safety rule was much different. The play was still worth two points, but the team that gave up the safety, strangely enough, got to keep the ball. It was given a new set of downs starting from its 30.

The rule was changed in 1926 because clubs – pro and college both – were abusing it. If they were backed up in their own end late in the game and ahead by three or more, they’d take an intentional safety and run three more clock-killing plays. And if they were still comfortably ahead at that point, they could take another intentional safety and run three more plays. It was ridiculous. If you had a big enough lead, you could — theoretically, at least — keep taking intentional safeties and eat up the last several minutes of a game without having to lose possession.

Check out this excerpt from a New York Times story in 1925. It talks about the Giants, leading the Providence Steam Roller by a field goal in the closing minutes, pulling just such a stunt.

NYT description of safety, 1926

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That “Hinky” Haines was a crafty one. (I put Hinky in quotes because his nickname was usually spelled H-i-n-k-e-y.)

You might also get a kick out of this excerpt from a Chicago Tribune story on the Racine (Wis.) Legion’s 10-4 win over the Chicago Cardinals in 1923. It’s the only time in NFL history a team has scored four points in a game. (And the Cards had Racine quarterback Shorty Barr to thank for it.)

10-4 Game 2014-10-05 at 6.02.16 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even after the rewrite in 1926, the safety rule needed some tweaking. That was evident after the Redskins lost the 1945 championship game to the Cleveland Rams, 15-14, because Sammy Baugh threw a pass out of his end zone that struck one of the goal posts — which in those days were located on the goal line. (It was considered a safety, for some forgotten reason, if the ball landed in the end zone.)

You can see the play — sort of — in this brief clip. (It was a miserably cold day. Players huddled under straw on the sideline to keep from getting frostbite.)

Naturally, Washington owner George Preston Marshall lobbied at the next league meeting to amend the antiquated — and rarely enforced — rule. And his lodge brothers went along because, well, an incomplete pass is an incomplete pass, right? Why should it ever be a safety? (Unless, that is, the quarterback throwing out of the end zone is guilty of intentional grounding. See Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLVI.)

After that, the safety receded into history and became what it always should have been: a curiosity, a freak occurrence, a mint left on a defender’s pillow. There hasn’t been a 2-0 final score since 1938, the Bears edging the Packers, and the safety certainly hasn’t had many memorable moments over the decades.

The biggest safety I can think of in recent years is the one that helped the Titans break open the 1999 AFC title game against the Jaguars. Tennessee was up 17-14 midway through the third quarter when defensive tackles Josh Evans and Jason Fisk broke through and sacked Mark Brunell in the end zone. Then Derrick Mason returned the free kick 80 yards for a touchdown, and the Titans were on their way to their first and only Super Bowl. A screen shot of the play-by-play:

Screen shot of AFC title game in '99

One last factoid before you go: In 1929, when the Packers won their first NFL championship, they went undefeated (12-0-1) and outscored their opponents 198-22. At home, their defense was practically unscored on. In five games, they gave up only four points. Two safeties.

Last 2-0 game in 1938

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Steve Smith makes the Panthers miss him

For the second straight NFL Sunday, a well-known wide receiver topped 100 yards in his first game against his former team. Last week it was the Redskins’ DeSean Jackson renewing acquaintances with the Eagles; this week it was Steve Smith exchanging pleasantries with the Panthers.

In the free-agent era, such made-for-TV reunions have become commonplace. They didn’t happen nearly so often in the old days. Consider: Don Hutson played for only one club his entire career: the Packers. The same goes for Raymond Berry (Colts), Charley Taylor (Redskins) and Steve Largent (Seahawks). Don Maynard had all but six of his 633 catches for the Jets, Art Monk all but 52 of his 940 for the Redskins. And each of them, I’ll just remind you, held the all-time receptions record at some point.

Now you have wideouts — in their later years, particularly — bouncing from team to team and basically playing as long as they’ve got two legs to run routes with. What was Jerry Rice’s last known address again? Oh, yes, the Broncos (though he had second thoughts and retired before playing for them).

So expect to see plenty more of these scenes in the seasons ahead — a celebrated wideout crossing paths with his old club. It’s kind of the football equivalent of bumping into your ex-wife, and, as we’ve seen, can make for very good theater. Smith, with touchdowns of 61 and 21 yards vs. Carolina, and Jackson, with an 81-yarder vs. Philadelphia, had two of the best Revenge Games (if you want to call them that) in modern times. One man’s Top 10:

BEST “REVENGE GAMES” BY WIDE RECEIVERS SINCE 1960

Date Receiver, Team Former Team Rec Yds TD Result
10-30-11 Anquan Boldin, Ravens Cardinals 7 145 0 W, 30-27
9-18-05 Terrell Owens, Eagles 49ers 5 143 2 W, 42-3
9-28-14 Steve Smith, Ravens Panthers 7 139 2 W, 38-10
9-21-14 DeSean Jackson, Redskins Eagles 5 117 1 L, 37-34
10-18-09 Torry Holt, Jaguars Rams 5 101 0 W, 23-20
11-15-64 Tommy McDonald, Cowboys Eagles 7 99 0 L, 17-14
11-21-93 Irving Fryar, Dolphins Patriots 4 97 1 W, 17-13
9-23-62 Bobby Mitchell, Redskins Browns 3 94 1 W, 17-16
9-12-93 Gary Clark, Cardinals Redskins 6 93 0 W, 17-10
12-24-94 Henry Ellard, Redskins Rams 5 81 0 W, 24-21

Note: Mitchell caught the winning touchdown pass in the final two minutes, a 50-yarder. . . . Ellard’s game was the last one the Rams played in Los Angeles before moving to St. Louis.

OTHERS WORTHY OF MENTION

Date Wide Receiver, Team Former Team Rec Yds TD Result
11-3-02 Jerry Rice, Raiders 49ers 6 74 0 L, 23-20
9-23-12 Randy Moss, 49ers Vikings 3 27 0 L, 24-13
9-13-87 James Lofton, Raiders Packers 2 32 0 W, 20-0
11-5-72 Lance Alworth, Cowboys Chargers 1 8 0 W, 34-28
11-24-13 Wes Welker, Broncos Patriots 4 31 0 L, 34-31
9-24-00 Keyshawn Johnson, Bucs Jets 1 1 0 L, 21-17

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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A small bone to pick with FiveThirtyEight

Lord knows, I love stats. Love what you can learn from them. Love just playing around with them to see what turns up. And what FiveThirtyEight.com’s Neil Paine does with stats in his revisionist piece about the Greatest Show on Turf — the 1999 Rams offense — is terrific. By all means read it, if you haven’t already.

My only quibble is Paine’s overinflation of Kurt Warner’s ’99 season. “Warner ended up completing 65.1 percent of his passes,” he writes, “which at the time was the third-best single-season completion percentage by any quarterback ever.11” Third-best ever. Wow. That one caught me by surprise. Then I chased down the footnote and found out he was talking about only “quarterbacks with 450 attempts.”

I’m not sure what, in Paine’s mind, is so magical about 450 attempts — other than that it allows him to say Warner’s completion rate was “the third-best . . . ever.” After all, 450 attempts are a lot of attempts. Only three NFL quarterbacks had that many in a season before 1978, when the schedule was increased to 16 games and rule changes turned pro football into the passer’s paradise we have today. (Note: Five more had 450-plus in the bombs-away AFL.)

But that’s a minor point because, the rules being what they were, almost no quarterback back then was going to complete 65.1 percent of his passes — unless it was the Redskins’ Sammy Baugh hitting 70.3 in the talent-starved war year of 1945. Show me a QB in those days who connected on 65.1 percent, and I’ll show you an extraterrestrial.

The larger point is: Why 450 attempts? Steve Young threw 447 passes in 11 starts for the ’95 49ers and completed 66.9 percent (1.8 percent more than Warner). We’re just going to leave him out? Then there’s Joe Montana, who threw 386 passes in 13 starts for the ’89 Niners and completed 70.2 percent (5.1 percent more than Warner). We’re going to ignore that season, too, even though Joe set a record that year (since broken) with a 112.4 rating?

What I’m objecting to is the arbitrariness of “450 attempts,” which serves no real purpose except to make Warner’s season look better. And here’s the thing: Neither he nor the story of the ’99 Rams offense needs any ginning up. His numbers are perfectly capable of standing on their own, without any creative massaging. It was, by any measure, a fabulous year, among the greatest of all time. For Paine create this imaginary 450 Attempts World — in which Warner has “the third-best single-season completion percentage by any quarterback ever” — is just plain silly.

To qualify for the passing title, a QB needs to throw 224 passes (14 per scheduled game). If you make that your threshold, Warner had the 17th-best completion rate ever. The Top 5:

HIGHEST SINGLE-SEASON COMPLETION RATES THROUGH 1999

Year Quarterback, Team Att Comp Pct
1982 Ken Anderson, Bengals 309 218 70.6
1994 Steve Young, 49ers 461 324 70.3
1989 Joe Montana, 49ers 386 271 70.2
1993 Troy Aikman, Cowboys 392 271 69.1
1993 Steve Young, 49ers 462 314 68.0

Minimum: 224 passes.

(Note: The schedule was only nine games in ’82 because of a player strike.)

Again, Warner had a sensational season, especially when you consider his 41 touchdown passes, 109.2 rating and Disneyesque backstory as a former Arena Leaguer. But making the cutoff 224 attempts, the league standard, instead of 450 tones down the idolatry a little — which is what statistical research is supposed to do.

Of course, 17th doesn’t sound nearly as good as “third-best . . . ever.” But what are you gonna do? It’s one thing to ignore Frank Filchock’s 111.6 passer rating for the 1939 Redskins because it isn’t “modern” — even though, coupled with his 413 rushing yards (ninth in the league), it was one of the most amazing years in NFL history. But when you disqualify seasons by recent Hall of Famers like Steve Young, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman because they fall short of some arbitrary minimum (450 attempts – and not a pass less!), that’s when I’m going to pipe up.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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A flash in the pan . . . or the real deal?

Granted, this is his third NFL season, but the Redskins’ Kirk Cousins had a 400-yard passing game Sunday against the Eagles in just his fifth NFL start. Not too shabby.

What’s surprising is how many quarterbacks have accomplished the feat just as quickly – or even more quickly. I came up with eight since 1960, and there could be a few more further back.

FEWEST STARTS IT TOOK A QUARTERBACK TO HAVE A 400-YARD GAME

Date Quarterback (Year) Team Opponent Start Yds Result
9-11-11 Cam Newton (1st) Panthers Cardinals 1st 422 L, 28-21
1-1-12 Matt Flynn (4th) Packers Lions 2nd 480 W, 45-41
11-14-99 Jim Miller (6th) Bears Vikings 2nd 422 L, 27-24
11-29-87 Tom Ramsey (5th) Patriots Eagles 2nd 402 L, 34-31
9-30-12 Ryan Tannehill (1st) Dolphins Cardinals 4th 431 L, 24-21
11-10-02 Marc Bulger (2nd) Rams Chargers 4th 453 W, 28-24
9-21-14 Kirk Cousins (3rd) Redskins Eagles 5th 427 L, 37-34
12-21-69 Don Horn (3rd) Packers Cardinals 5th 410 W, 45-28
10-13-61 Jacky Lee (2nd) Oilers Patriots 5th 457 T, 31-31
12-13-04 Billy Volek (4th) Titans Chiefs 6th 426 L, 49-38
10-10-04 Tim Rattay (5th) 49ers Cardinals 6th 417 W, 31-28
9-6-98 Glenn Foley (4th) Jets 49ers 6th 415 L, 36-30

Note: Ramsey played two seasons in the USFL before joining the Patriots in 1985. Those years are counted as experience. . . . Newton also threw for 400 yards in his second NFL game/start (432 vs. the Packers in a 30-23 loss). . . . Volek also threw for 400 in his seventh start (492 vs. the Raiders in a 40-35 loss). . . . The combined won-lost record of the group is 4-7-1. Cousins, in other words, has plenty of company in his despair.

As you can see, only two Actual Rookies since 1960 (Newton and Tannehill) have had a 400-yard passing game in their first five starts. The other quarterbacks were in their second, third, fourth, fifth and even sixth season when they did it.

Also, just two of the dozen QBs listed have gone to the Pro Bowl: Newton and Bulger. The others, for the most part, could be described as Serviceable Backups.

So . . . make of Cousins’ big day what you will. Or maybe he should make of it what he will.

OTHER ACTIVE QUARTERBACKS WHO HAD A 400-YARD GAME EARLY

Date Quarterback (Year) Team Opponent Start Yds Result
11-4-12 Andrew Luck (1st) Colts Dolphins 8th 433 W, 23-20
9-8-13 Colin Kaepernick (3rd) 49ers Packers 8th 412 W, 34-28
11-22-09 Matt Stafford (1st) Lions Browns 8th 422 W, 38-37
11-3-13 Nick Foles (2nd) Eagles Raiders 9th 406 W, 49-20
11-13-08 Matt Cassel (4th) Patriots Jets 9th 400 L, 34-31

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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Talk about your Short Work Weeks

Thursday night NFL games are one of our better examples of Man’s Inhumanity to Man. The human body simply isn’t built to play pro football twice in five calendar days. It probably isn’t built to play pro football once every seven calendar days, but that’s another matter.

Anyway, as you watch tonight’s Redskins-Giants hostilities at FedEx Field, keep in mind how much worse it used to be for NFL players. Yes, worse. In the 1920s, for instance, games on back-Screen Shot 2014-09-25 at 8.07.32 PMto-back days were far from uncommon. When the Frankford Yellow Jackets won the championship in 1926, they had three weeks where they played on Saturday and Sunday and another where they played on Thursday and Saturday. Amazingly, they won seven of the eight games.

In the ’30s, the Portsmouth Spartans were fond of Wednesday home games under the lights at Universal Stadium. One season they had two Sunday-Wednesday-Sunday trifectas on the schedule — three games in eight days — and another week they played on Wednesday and Sunday. And this was the era, I’ll just remind you, of 20-man rosters and 60-minute men (not to mention looong train rides).

Even in the ’50s it could get a little crazy. The New York Yanks began the 1950 season with a Sunday/Friday week — on the West Coast — and later had two Sunday/Thursday weeks. Little wonder they wore down after a 6-1 start and finished 7-5.

So, yeah, Thursday night games are a raw deal. But the players of yore were treated even less gently.

Source: pro-football-reference.com

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